Seeing Red(s)

[Cody Pirkl]

It’s officially the offseason, which means the possibilities are endless. One familiar team has already kicked off trade season and identified themselves as a potential trade partner for the Twins.

The day after the World Series wrapped up, news surfaced of a trade between the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers. Nothing major, but definitely surprising to see so early in the offseason.

It’s an innocent enough deal, but it sheds the spotlight on a Cincinnati team with plenty of star power who narrowly missed the playoffs. Cincinnati finds themselves in an odd spot. Some high dollar players and regular contributors appear to be major question marks moving forward. Their minor league system is quite frankly not great. They have several players either leaving by way of free agency or possibly opting out. It appears to have led leadership to a disappointing conclusion.

It’s never fun to see another team turn towards a possible rebuild, but it creates opportunity for those still willing to go for it. There are a few players the Twins could check in on.

Sonny Gray
Starting off with a fun name that’s been linked to the Twins before. At 31 years old, Gray threw 135 1/3 innings in 2021 and posted a 4.19 ERA. He did suffer from several injuries throughout the season but still posted a strong 27% K rate and sub 10% walk rate. It may not be realistic to expect 200 innings from Gray in 2022, but one would think that a second consecutive 162 game season could build him up to the 160-170 range assuming he avoids major injuries.

Gray is due about $10m in 2022 with a $12m team option in 2023. This is the kind of money and upside that would slot perfectly into the Twins plans to return to contention while leaving wiggle room for plenty more additions. If the Reds are selling they have no reason to hold onto a 30+ year old pitcher for $10m per year. Fellow TwinsDaily writer Nash Walker did some research on the old Trade Simulator and found one viable return including RHP Matt Canterino and OF Trevor Larnach. If the Twins want to return to contention that just may be the cost of doing business.

Amir Garrett
Garrett has been the topic of Twins trade talk before as well, as the hard-throwing lefty reliever would be a nice arm to slot into the back end of a needy bullpen. The difference this winter is Garrett is much more realistic. The left hander is coming off what could be described as a brutal season after posting an ERA over 6.00 in just under 50 innings. His main issue was a HR/9 nearing 2 for the second year in a row.

Garrett still posted a 28.4% K rate and showed every bit of the arm talent that was so impressive in years past. He’s due to make $2m in 2022 with one more year of arbitration, and the Reds may see more value in flipping a reliever nearing the age of 30 if they’re headed toward a rebuild. Getting Garrett out of Great American Ballpark alone may go a long way in improving his performance, and the cost after his 2021 simply can’t be very high.

Nick Senzel
The former top 100 prospect has fallen a long way from being a possible core piece of a hypothetical Francisco Lindor trade. Injuries are mostly to blame, as 26 year old Senzel has yet to truly get any run at the MLB level for an extended period of time. Senzel has played in just 59 games since his debut in 2019 where he was able to appear in 104 ballgames. The Reds could very well be willing to take what they can get as their former up and coming star continues to miss time.

For the Twins, Senzel is a player who can play center field, second base, third, and even fill in at shortstop in a pinch given his history in the minors. It may become a bit crowded in the utilityman position, but making such an acquisition could open up the possibility of a trade of someone like Luis Arraez who would be able to fetch them a higher end arm of the trade market.

 

There are surely other Cincinnati players who would be shopped if they decide to steer into a rebuild. These three however carry relatively low acquisition costs and fit into the Twins plans of acquiring several other players to rebuild after a disappointing year. Are there any other Reds you’d like to see the Twins call on? (Yes I know, Luis Castillo) Let us know below!

 

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[DJL44]

Wade Miley was pretty outstanding in 2021 and has a $10M option for 2022.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Cody, Reds could be a very good trading partner option. You've given us some very good options. I'm still dreaming of a Castillo trade, I like to dream big.  His stock has come down some from it lofty perch so maybe a package could be put together. With Castellanos gone and pending DH, we might have some low cost pieces that they might be interested in plus any other needs they may have. Can Senzel really play CF or can he play there like Cave?

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Wade Miley was pretty outstanding in 2021 and has a $10M option for 2022.

Twins missed him on the waiver claim by one place. I bet they would have grabbed him.

[Rosterman]

Wade was a decent waiver claim. Talk about giving away a player.

 

[tony&rodney]

Miley would have been good as would Gray. This is a interesting  post. I prefer to dangle Larnach and Jeffers to Miami and Arraez plus others to Oakland, but Falvey has options this year. We shall see...

[DJL44]

Total failure by the Twins. They should have traded something, anything for Miley so he never ended up on waivers at all.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Miley would have been good as would Gray. This is a interesting  post. I prefer to dangle Larnach and Jeffers to Miami and Arraez plus others to Oakland, but Falvey has options this year. We shall see...

I could see the Reds waiving Miley as an indication that they're more likely to keep Gray, i.e. if the two pitchers make about the same salary, they prioritized the one they rate higher.

[DocBauer]

I'm interested in Gray. Despite a solid career, his best numbers/results were with Oakland early in his career. But I'm very interested in this idea. My issue is I think...assuming the Twins find a #1 somehow, and there are multiple possibilities and options available...does Gray really slot in as a viable #2? He could, especially only 31yrs old and experienced. And maybe the Twins see a few changes that could unlock a little bit more. But I just see him as a quality #3 in the rotation. 

I just feel someone like Pineda as a re-sign for the #3 spot, and probably for a couple $M less, just makes more sense. Just not sure I buy in to Larnach and Canterino as a fair trade option. Wallner and Gross or Gipson-Long might make more sense from the Twins perspective. Maybe with a sweetener thrown in. I just don't know that Gray is worth 2 top 15 prospects for a re-building team trying to lower payroll for a #3 SP.

[Seth Stohs]

I like the idea of Gray since it's 1 year if things go bad, but potentially 2 years if things go well. 

That said, Larnach and Canterino was way too much. Canterino is very highly-regarded and Larnach is going to be really good too. That's just too much. (in my opinion)

[Doctor Gast]

22 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

I could see the Reds waiving Miley as an indication that they're more likely to keep Gray, i.e. if the two pitchers make about the same salary, they prioritized the one they rate higher.

I assume that they figure that Gray would be much easier to move. With them giving a last ditch effort to trade before putting him on waivers. Evidently they weren't asking much, strange no one bit