The Twins Also Need More From Left Field

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

One week ago, Twins Daily discussed the need for the Minnesota Twins to get more out of their first basemen next season if they wish to return to the top of the American League Central. This week, we look at another position that vastly underperformed relative to the rest of MLB: Left field.

Left field was one of the Twins’ most noteworthy question marks entering the 2021 season and to say that they experienced a merry-go-round of talent in the left corner would be a bit of an understatement. Unfortunately, the performance of said talent was rather lackluster, to put it lightly. In total, 10 athletes made at least one appearance in left — led by Trevor Larnach’s 60 games — and compiled an fWAR of -0.1, which ranked 28th overall in baseball. 

Luis Arraez (1.8 fWAR) began the season as the primary position holder — one that he had never played before — driven by the desire to keep his bat in the lineup but lacking a home after Jorge Polanco was transitioned from shortstop to second base. However, myriad injuries — including a Josh Donaldson calf strain prior to the first game of the season -- projected him from the outfield and into more consistent roles at second and third base. Larnach (0.2 fWAR), who took up the mantle left following an Alex Kirilloff injury and subsequent move to first base, displayed great promise during the early portions of his premature rookie campaign before an inability to meet ball with wood reared its ugly head. Brent Rooker (-0.2 fWAR) and Jake Cave (-0.3 fWAR) struggled mightily both at the plate and in the field, leaving their future roles on the team — particularly Cave’s, who is a prime candidate to be cut from the 40-man roster — in question.

The Grand Left Field Experiment failed to such a degree that it gave rise to one of the most unproductive positions in all of baseball. The following are a select few statistics that put the Twins’ ineptitude on full display:

• 32.2% K rate (30th)
• 23.9% K%-BB% (30th)
• .658 OPS (28th)
• 82 wRC+ (t28th)
• .361 SLG% (27th)

Minnesota enters the current offseason in virtually the same position as they did the last: With a big ol’ question mark in left field.

Chances are that the position remains Larnach’s to lose, at least in the long-term, despite his continued struggles (33.9% K rate; .696 OPS) in Triple-A following his demotion. Few players in the Twins’ system possess as much raw power as the former Oregon State Beaver, who absolutely mashed fastballs as a rookie (.667 SLG and .362 BA) However, Larnach floundered mightily against any and all pitches with movement. 

Still, Larnach figures to be a key member of the future and is by all accounts a hard worker who is dedicated to his craft and willing to make adjustments to his approach. The Twins will likely have new hitting coach David Popkins work extensively with Larnach in an effort to cut down on his strikeouts and tap into his full power potential.

The Twins could also seek to address their left field woes in either free agency or the trade market. Oakland’s Mark Canha (2.6 fWAR) and New York Mets’ Michael Conforto (0.8 fWAR) are both coming off relatively disappointing seasons and may be open to a change of scenery. Coupled with a trade of Max Kepler — one of the Twins’ most valuable trade pieces, according to FanGraphs — signing either Canha or Conforto would cover for the need in left while maintaining room for Larnach in right (or in the case of Conforto, he could take over in right while Larnach stays in left). 

Regardless of the path they ultimately take, the Twins need to address their lack of productivity from their left fielders this offseason. Doing so should be right up there with upgrading their production from shortstop, first base, and the starting rotation

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email
— Read more from Lucas here

View full article

[roger]

Yes they do. 

 

I often cringe when reading that the Twins are loaded with prospects for the corner outfield positions.  I always think, who?  Yes, Larnach should still be viewed as a top prospect.  And Kirilloff isn't a corner outfielder, rather, their first baseman for 2022, 2023 and beyond.  Who else is a top corner outfield prospect?  Rooker, no.  Wallner, maybe.  Martin, well he is a shortstop, first, and centerfielder second.  Who else?  Maybe one of the young Latin kids signed the last couple years, but they are a long ways away.

So lets start by keeping Max Kepler and let him work with the new hitting coach.  Maybe someone interested in anything other than home runs will get Max to make the adjustments that will make him the hitter he will become if traded.

[mikelink45]

Good essay that is sure to spark a lot of controversy (it should).  I think Larnach can reclaim and prosper, but after his second half plunge he needs time to regain his confidence.  But then who?  I don't know.  Can Miranda play in the OF?  Can Celestino play LF?  Not Rooker and his glove and K's.  Not Arraez who never was an OF candidate.  This is a weakness that is seldom discussed.  Thanks for bringing it up.   But please - not Cave or Refsnyder or Garlick. 

[cjm0926]

I hope Larnach can become that guy but I am just not too sure. I wouldn't mind keeping him and developing him but also if he could be a big piece of a trade bringing in an ace I could find that hard to turn down as well. I guess we will just wait and see.

[Brock Beauchamp]

23 minutes ago, cjm0926 said:

I hope Larnach can become that guy but I am just not too sure. I wouldn't mind keeping him and developing him but also if he could be a big piece of a trade bringing in an ace I could find that hard to turn down as well. I guess we will just wait and see.

Welcome to Twins Daily!

[RpR]

In reality there is no one who has shown any real promise for left field; for the Larnach pie-in-the-sky rhetoric, he has shown to be no better than Rooker, slow with lousy fielding ability.

Celestino has fielding agility but has to learn to hit, Garlic looked good but is a center field back-up, other than those two you might as well throw the bones as it is a crap shoot based on -- gee I hope ....

Time to sign a competent veteran for a year or two.

[dxpavelka]

If only our LF and leading run producer from 2018-2020 were available......

[TwinsAce]

I like the idea of trying to sign one of Mark Canha (2.6 fWAR) or Michael Conforto (0.8 fWAR) if we trade Kepler. I liked the hitting progress Celestino showed in AAA enough I would probably make him be the first call up if any OF struggles, including LF and Larnach.

I also think Martin might be close that IF the Twins were winning games, it could be a "break glass in case of emergency" situation for LF. IIRC, one of his weaknesses is his arm, which makes LF probable. 

[yeahyabetcha]

Any outfield talk has to begin with Buxton.  My preferred OF for next year would be Kiriloff-Buxton-Kepler.  Having said that, I think many of  the proposed, incentive based extensions that many have offered are pie in the sky.  At worst, why wouldn’t Buxton just take his 8 million this year, have a monster year and wait for the $200 million offers next year?  Any who want to sign Buxton now at any cost, need to come to terms with this may be where the Buxton camp is at.

[Gatormandd]

Well, if we are not winning the WS next season ? , I think we look ok down the road there.  I assume Martin eventually, with Larnach figuring it out in time to replace Kepler in right in a couple of seasons.  Kirilloff can help out there some (lf/1b) (Depending on how much Donaldson can play the field which will affect Sano's DH time). Arraez does the same thing, some 3b, some lf, some DH.  IF Lewis can stand at SS and not be horrible, all is well.  Until then, Gordon (who can also do some LF) will be in the mix at UT.  Finally, I'm a fan of Garlick as the 5th OF who hits LH on a squad who doesn't hit LH in general, now that Cruz is gone.  Kepler is still needed, at least until we figure out what happens with Buxton.  I assume Kepler will stay regardless unless the Twins can get a rebound pitcher on a good contract in trade, which will flop, but it's what the FO does, lol.

 

[stringer bell]

I’ll agree with the OP that more production from LF is needed. With Buxton in center, a less than great defender in left is a bit easier to paper over. Assuming good health in the infield, this is a place for Arraez. Having a legitimate glove for a fourth/fifth OF would allow for late-inning defense replacement. 
 

I think Larnach (fully healthy) might seize the position as early as Spring Training. He was beat up on his lower body most of his last month with the Twins. Kirilloff (with Sanó at first) could figure in, as well. 

[Mark G]

I know I am going to be a minority here (again), but I sense a theme as the off season goes along.  Left field and SS seem to be topics of discussion quite a bit.  We had a left fielder and didn't want to keep him, why?  His defense?  And we had a SS this year who excelled at defense and we don't want to keep him, why?  His offense.  At some point we have to accept the fact not every MLB player is going to excel at both, year in and year out.  We could have lived with the occasional blunder from Rosario to keep his bat, and we certainly can (in my extremely humble opinion) live with a light bat in Simmons to keep that defensive infield together.  But we won't.  We didn't keep the one, and we now will not keep the other and it has opened two holes on the left side we are debating on how to fill.  Any team that leads the league in home runs in '19 and finishes 2nd in '21 (the last two complete seasons) can live with a light hitting SS that can play the field with anyone, and could really use the bat in left and let Buxton cover the ground, leaving Rosario to play a defined area.  Seems like these were areas that didn't necessarily need to be solved.  I hope I am wrong and we find the gem at each position that pleases everyone, and it better come soon if we want to compete any time soon.  Going with cheap rookies is a gamble, and signing proven commodities is going to be very high buck.  Just seems to me it didn't have to come to this but, as I said, I know I am a minority in this.  

And, by the way, we may have finished 2nd in '21 because we lost Rosario.  Just maybe.  

[LA VIkes Fan]

Guys, unless there is a trade we already know who is going to play LF next season - Alex Kirilloff. Think about how the roster is presently constructed. Sano is going to play virtually every day absent injury and he can only play IB or DH. Same for Donaldson, and he can only play 3B or DH, an probably needs to DH at least 40-50% of the time. They want to keep Arraez' bat in the lineup and he can only really play 2B, 3B or DH. Polanco is our best player and he will get 140 games next year at 2B. Kepler is the everyday RF with some platoon from a RH hitter. So where's the room for Kirilloff to be an everyday player on the present roster? Left Field and only Left Field. 

Obviously, a trade would change everything and potentially open up IB or RF for Kirilloff if Sano or Kepler are traded, or if Donaldson is traded and Sano becomes a full time DH with Arraez and Miranda sharing 3B.  At this point, the only trades involving these guys that make sense are either a trade of Sano, Polanco, Arraez or Kepler PLUS young MiLB talent (probably pitching) for young controllable MLB pitching, or a salary dump trade of Donaldson to open up payroll space to sign a free-agent pitcher. The 1st seems unlikely because Sano, Arraez, and Kepler just don't have that much value to anyone other than a hitting starved team like Miami, and they won't trade Polanco's team friendly contract unless there is an unlikely pitching overpay by someone. The 2nd seems unlikely if the team/FO is being honest that they intend to try to contend in 2022. Trading Donaldson would be equivalent to putting out a sign that says "2022 is a development year, hopefully we'll contend by 2023 or more likely 2024." While both scenarios could happen, I think the odds are at least 60/40 that neither will happen and that next year's opening day roster will include Donaldson, Kepler, Sano, Arraez and Polanco, each of whom the team will be looking to get at least 500 to 550 plate appearances. that leaves LF as the ONLY option to get 500+ ABs for Kirilloff. 

The good news is that a healthy Kirilloff in LF should substantially improve the team's standing in the statistical rankings for that position. I think we can reasonably expect a baseline of .270-.280/ .330-.350/.450+ from him if he stays healthy. I think Celestino is the team's 4th OF and he will get some play in LF. Larnach will at least start the season in AAA and probably doesn't come up to the majors unless there is an injury or we have another lousy season and they want to give him at bats in August or September. I think the team is seen enough of Rooker for the time being and he will either be with someone else if taken in the Rule 5 draft, or he will get another year at AAA to try to boost his standing and hope that Martin, de la Trinidad, Contreras, etc. don't pass him up.

So, there just is no room at the Inn for a guy like Canha, Conforto, or for the guy I would like to see come back, Eddie Rosario. Lucas is right that we need improved production from LF. I think we will get it and get it from Alex Kirilloff. I think the Twins should spend all of their free agent money on pitching, pitching, and more pitching, plus a stopgap shortstop, and not on anything else. The good news is is at least they declined the option on Colome. That represents a good start. 

[DocBauer]

MOSTLY agree with previous posts that I have "liked" with some small descepancies. So I'm going to roll with some bullet point opinions here:

1] 1B will be manned by a combination of Kirilloff and Sano. Call me crazy, but from the eye test, Sano isn't as bad as his metrics show. He catches everything close to him and scoops very well. He's fine with pop-ups as long as he doesn't run in to his teammates. His biggest issue, to me, is still forgetting he's not a 3B any longer and being out of position at times. Things like that can be learned. AK looks so good there, it's probably his position of the future.

2] I've seen enough, briefly, that I think we need to just stop with the idea that Kirilloff CAN'T play the OF. He's at least OK out there. We've even seen a couple really good plays from him. He's just more natural and smooth at 1B, which is not a bad thing, and he has a great future there, IMO.

3] If you noticed, when AK and Larnach were both in the lineup, AK was in LF and Larnach was in RF.  Why? Larnach has the better arm. Eventually, IMO, Kepler MIGHT  be gone in a year or two, depending on his production/development, and Larnach will then slide to RF. But Kirilloff is NOT just a 1B. He can easily play some LF for now.

4] And speaking of Kepler, I am opposed to him being dealt in any way unless he's part of acquiring someone special. Hes an outstanding RF with power and a much better hitter than he showed in 2021. Even if he never duplicates 2019, again, he's much better than last season. And healthy, no more hamstring injuries that surely held him back, he's a solid backup option in CF as well. LF is an issue. I don't want to exasbhrate problems in the OF by adding RF to the mix.

5] There is a quasi-illusion to the Twins OF depth. They HAVE talent and prospects. AND possibilities. But we are talking again about AK, Larnach, Rooker, and Celestino for the NOW, vs some quality and very interesting prospects in AA and below. 

Where this all meets is undetermined at this point.

Rooker may yet surprise, with us or someone else. Larnach is going to be quality, IMO, but not sure it's going to be out of the gate for 2022. Celestino was pushed WAY TOO EARLY, but responded well at AAA when playing where he should have been. Martin may be destined for the OF with the ability to play the infield. But draft choice to AA and then MLB is pretty tough. But this leads me to my next bullet point...

6] The 2022 Twins have enough pitching issues to worry about and fill without worrying about LF. Trades may happen, but this spot should not only be an open competition, but also be part of the 1B and DH options. Arraez should still some time in LF. I don't believe his knees are an issue running around on grass fields 75% of the time. And he's no worse than some LF,  past and present, Twins or other teams. Rooker could find his stroke. And defensively, what I said about Arraez. AK can fit in at LF and so can Miranda, who we just HAVE to find room for! And Larnach could pretty much blow the whole thing up and take the primary job if and when he's ready.

In MY blueprint for 2022, I found room for Pillar on a cheap 1yr deal that could fill the 3rd spot initially as well as the 4th spot and provide depth and options as Larnach and Celestino adjust and get ready to grab hold of a job.

Health and development, I have some high hopes for LF, as well as 1B, related. Just don't give away what you already have.