Reload, not Rebuild (My Twins 2021-22 Offseason Blueprint)

[Andrew Mahlke]

After a disappointing 2021 season the Twins have an interesting offseason ahead of them. How do they get themselves back into contention while simultaneously staying around their standard $130MM budget? The problem was that the money spent last offseason was not spent on the correct players. Here is my blueprint for a potentially successful upcoming offseason for the Twins. 

A lot of Twins fans are angered by the front office “refusing to spend big money”. The problem doesn’t lie in not spending, as we see yet another phenomenal season by the penny-pinching Tampa Bay Rays.

In 2021, the Twins gave J.A. Happ a one-year deal for $8MM. He had a 63 ERA+ and was in the 5th percentile of all qualified pitchers in Barrel %. Here are his percentile rankings from Baseball Savant:

 

Simply put, Happ was one of the worst pitchers in the league in 2021. Remember that the Twins signed him for a  one-year, $8 million deal.

Robbie Ray is probably going to win the American League Cy Young award in 2021. He posted an AL-leading 154 ERA+ and led all of MLB with 248 strikeouts pitchers in the league in 2021. He also decreased his walk rate from 17.9% in 2020 to 6.7% in 2021. Here are his percentile rankings:

Ray was outstanding in 2021. He was a free agent before the 2021 season and re-signed very quickly with the Toronto Blue Jays. Guess what his contract was?

If you guessed that his contract was one-year and $8 million, you would be correct. In November of 2020, Robbie Ray signed an identical contract to what J.A. Happ would receive two months later.

It’s not that the Twins won’t spend money on players, it’s that they aren’t spending money on the right players. If you want to see another case of this, take a look at Corey Knebel’s 2021 numbers and know that the Twins paid Alex Colome $250K more than him in 2021.

Without further ado, let’s get into my 2021-22 offseason blueprint.

Using Twins Daily’s handy roster-building tool I created this roster:

Let’s break this roster down.

Starting Rotation
It is no secret that this is the most important need on the roster. In 2021, the Twins starting pitchers finished dead last in bWAR in all of MLB. The only  starting pitchers from 2021 still on the roster are Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, both of whom impressed in 2021 campaigns but are both still unproven. If the Twins want to contend in 2022, the front office needs to vastly improve their starting pitching.

The first thing they should do is sign Carlos Rodon to a five-year, $115 million deal. If the White Sox choose not to extend Rodon after a Cy Young-caliber 2021 season, the front office needs to make him their #2 priority (more on that later). Rodon’s four-seamer was the most effective pitch in baseball in 2021 in terms of run value, being worth -26 runs. He also had the sixth most effective slider in baseball, worth -14 runs. And come on, just look at these percentile rankings.

 

 

Rodon is not viewed by the general public as highly as other starters on the market such as Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, and Marcus Stroman. I would pay Rodon more than all three of them. Despite his breakout season, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball and him being signed for anything less than $20MM would be an absolute tragedy.

The next starting pitcher the Twins should sign is Eduardo Rodriguez. The Twins should give Rodriguez a two-year, $24 million contract. There are a number of starters I could have targeted in this price range, including Jon Gray and Anthony DeSclafani. I went with Rodriguez because he may be undervalued because of his below-average 2021 statistics. When you look deeper, Rodriguez was one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league in 2021.

Rodriguez has a lot of qualities I look for in a middle-to-top of the rotation starter. He doesn’t walk a lot of hitters, strikes out a good amount, and could blossom into a stud. I wrote about Rodriguez and other free agents here. 

The last starting pitcher the Twins should sign is Michael Pineda. Pineda is a familiar face for Twins fans, having spent the last four seasons with the organization. Pineda was solid, posting a 116 ERA+ in his three seasons in Minnesota. He rarely walks batters and has an above-average slider, having a whiff rate of 37.7% with the slider and allowing a miniscule .252 xWOBA on the pitch in 2021. He would provide a veteran presence and some familiarity to a Twins rotation. The offer to Pineda is a one-year deal worth $7 million.

 

 

The Lineup
Because in my blueprint I spent $42 million on starting pitchers, I'll have to scale back what the team can spend on the lineup. Let’s get into it.

Going down the lineup, the first change we see is I made Alex Kirilloff the everyday first baseman. Kirilloff is a phenomenal young player who I believe will someday play in several all-star games. In 2021, Kirilloff had two outs above average at 1B compared to Miguel Sano’s -6. Sano will be the full-time DH who can occasionally play first base if Kirilloff needs a day off or plays in the outfield.

The next change I made is signing Freddy Galvis to a one-year, $3 million deal. In my free agent target article, I mentioned maybe signing Carlos Correa or Chris Taylor to play the position. Unfortunately, that is not something the Twins could do while remaining around the $130 million budget because of the pitching needs. So instead, I am going to echo Nick Nelson's plan and sign Galvis on a cheap deal for one year with hopes Austin Martin or Royce Lewis could take the reins at shortstop in 2023 or even at some point in 2022. Galvis is not an outstanding player but is definitely serviceable.

In the outfield, I have Brent Rooker starting the season in left field. Other guys who would be seeing time here would be Gilberto Celestino, Luis Arraez, Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Jose Miranda. This is by no means a set spot and whoever has a hot bat or the best matchup would be playing on any given day. 

In center field, the Twins give Byron Buxton a newly-inked deal. Extending Buxton is the top priority this offseason, no doubt. I wrote an extensive article highlighting what a potential deal should look like and why. It would be a seven-year, $133 million deal plus incentives for games played. The incentives are not set in stone. and I am open to listening to whatever Buxton’s side wants for incentives because as long as he’s on the field, he will be the team's best player and helping win games in so many ways.

Our roster includes Trevor Larnach starting the season in right field. This is a little bit of a concern for me given his late-season struggles in 2021 and his demotion to St. Paul, but from the glimpses he showed earlier in the season and the potential he has, I have faith in Larnach to figure it out. This obviously raises the question: where did Max Kepler go? Kepler is a talented outfielder, and he is owed about $16 million over the next two seasons, which is a team-friendly contract for a player of his caliber. The Marlins are a young up-and-coming team that could use a solid outfielder and Kepler is exactly that. They are likely to value Kepler’s contract, and I believe the return could be good. This is why we should trade Max Kepler to the Miami Marlins.

 

 

In return, the Twins would be receiving the Marlins sixth best-prospect, RHP Eury Perez, their seventh best prospect, LHP Jake Eder, and their 21st prospect, outfielder Griffin Conine.  Perez is 6’8” and throws a fastball in the mid 90s. He had a very strong showing in High-A this year and is still only 18 years old. Eder had a very strong season in AA and features a fastball that has been up to 98 as well as a wipeout slider. Conine is a power-hitting corner outfielder who hit 36 home runs between high-A and AA in 2021.

This is a very good return for Kepler so the Twins would add #19 prospect, RHP Cole Sands who had a good year in AA. According to baseballtradevalues.com, this is a very even trade. It would be a trade that would give the Twins some much needed pitching depth and add to a bright collection of pitching prospects.

 

The Bullpen (Arm-Barn?)
With the additions to the lineup and rotation, we don’t have a ton of spending flexibility for the bullpen. With Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, and Thielbar all returning, there are four spots to fill. Here is how I filled those spots:

Randy Dobnak ($800K) is the long reliever. Dobnak is a good fit for this role if he can get back to his 2019-20 form. He is a strike-thrower who is efficient and could eat innings. He could also make a spot start, if needed.

Ryan Tepera ($5 million) is the set-up man who could close a game too. I wrote about Tepera in my free agent targets article, and he would be an instant stud in the back end of the bullpen. He spent time in 2021 on both sides of Chicago and was excellent, being in the 96th percentile for xERA. With a nasty slider and fastball to pair with it, Tepera would be an excellent signing, especially given Rogers’ uncertainty.

Heath Hembree ($1 million) is in a middle-relief role. I also wrote extensively about Hembree and his bad luck. Hembree’s high spin rates lead to exceptional strikeout numbers and with a little more luck in 2022, he would be a fantastic addition to our bullpen especially at this price.

Griffin Jax ($600K) is also in a long relief role. Jax made quite a few starts in 2021 and was unimpressive. In a relief role he could let it eat a little more. If he revamps his pitch arsenal (more offspeed!), he would be a good pitcher in a long relief role. Jax’s slider had a xWOBA of .270 in 2021, compared to his fastball’s xWOBA of .402. He would be a fun pitcher to watch progress as he learns what does and doesn’t work at the major-league level.

I think the poor bullpen in 2021 was a little fluky and keeping the same core four (Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, and Thielbar) along with adding a few good pieces could make our 2022 bullpen a lot better. They also could build bullpen depth with minor leaguers such as Jovani Moran, Ralph Garza Jr., and Jhoan Duran.

Summary
With this blueprint, I tried to keep it realistic with signings the Twins would be likely to make, and I tried to stay within a reasonable budget. For the most part, I want to not overcommit to free agency so the Twins can still have flexibility to build from within. I gave one or two year deals to Rodriguez, Galvis, Tepera, Pineda, and Hembree. Along with that, extending Buxton for seven years is big, and getting a stud starting pitcher in Rodon and the team could be ready to compete in 2022.

Thank you for reading, and Go Twins! What do you think of this offseason blueprint. 

 

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[tony&rodney]

The explanations are solid and you also do a fine job of telling us how this plays out going forward. Rodon is a beast if he can stay healthy and I believe he will. My only concern is how Buxton will manage to cover the outfield with Larnach and Rooker watching. Embree is an interesting add; good.

[Tim]

Eury Perez should be target #1 for the Twins in any and all deals with the Marlins

[Vanimal46]

I may be on an island with this take, but I am totally out on Rodon. He was absolutely electric to begin the season, then tapered off towards the end of the season. Didn’t eclipse more than 5 innings after his start on July 18th. And was skipped a couple of times because of arm fatigue and shoulder issues. Of course, that is expected when he missed basically the last 2 seasons with arm injuries. He’s just not someone I’m comfortable handing a large multi year contract to. 

[MABB1959]

One thing that we never know is if they try to sign players like Rodon but he did not want to come to MN.  I think that happens way more often than we know about. 

[KFEY93]

18 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I may be on an island with this take, but I am totally out on Rodon. He was absolutely electric to begin the season, then tapered off towards the end of the season. Didn’t eclipse more than 5 innings after his start on July 18th. And was skipped a couple of times because of arm fatigue and shoulder issues. Of course, that is expected when he missed basically the last 2 seasons with arm injuries. He’s just not someone I’m comfortable handing a large multi year contract to. 

Watch him go on to be signed by another team and be part of a play off run. You gotta take risks. 

[beckmt]

Radon is too risky for the Twins.  You have to give the young pitchers a chance.  I can see signing Pineda and the trade with Miami if you can resign Buxton

[Nashvilletwin]

A lot to like here. Excellent analysis and creative idea. A couple of things:

1. Neither Lewis nor Martin projects as a plus defensive SS. Ideally, they are your starting RF (Lewis) and LF (Martin) in 2023. Think about that combo on either side of BB for 3-5 years.  

2. Therefore, this could be the year to fire up a longish term deal for a true SS. The best way to pay for that is to trade Josh and use his cash. JD is a declining asset on a team that will struggle to contend. A team like the ‘22 Twins needs more ascending assets. Any declining assets certainly can’t be making $23MM+.  Let Miranda man 3B for most of next year and beyond - he’s the future. 
 

3. Twins won’t spend that much on a #1SP in 2022. I’m just not sensing it. Redeploy that cash into a killer pen. Rocco doesn’t let any starter go past 5-6 IPs anyway. I like adding one or two #3 type SPs - but otherwise see what you’ve got in your youngsters than splurge on a #1 or #2 SP if needed in 2023 when the team is more likely to contend. But a killer pen will always keep you more than competitive. 
 

4. I like the call on Kepler. Keep Sano at DH and Kiriloff at 1B. The starting OF next year on either side of BB is a bit dicey, but both Lewis and Martin need to see plenty of time there in the second half of ‘22 anyway. 
 

Thanks much, very fun read. 

[prouster]

I’ve mentioned this on a few other threads, but I think they should call the Rays about Glasnow. I’m guessing Tampa would rather not pay him to rehab all year, so the Twins could get a discount. It’s definitely a move for 2023, but I’d like to see them work something out.  

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I may be on an island with this take, but I am totally out on Rodon. He was absolutely electric to begin the season, then tapered off towards the end of the season. Didn’t eclipse more than 5 innings after his start on July 18th. And was skipped a couple of times because of arm fatigue and shoulder issues. Of course, that is expected when he missed basically the last 2 seasons with arm injuries. He’s just not someone I’m comfortable handing a large multi year contract to. 

The ChiSox were known spin doctors.  New rules maybe a factor?

[cjm0926]

I just don't know about Rodon. I believe he is a good pitcher but I also believe this year was just a career year and he will never be quite as good. For a team like the Twins who many tend to believe they are more frugal with their money I would rather spend it on a guy with multiple seasons of good success, maybe Stroman or even Gausman. I do hope we could get Rodriguez for 2/$24, that would be huge.

[tony&rodney]

6 hours ago, Tim said:

Eury Perez should be target #1 for the Twins in any and all deals with the Marlins

Agree, except BA and the Marlins have him as their number one prospect. I thought about how the Marlins might part with Perez but the Twins don't have enough to get him. Meyer is possibly available for Jeffers and Larnach.

Excellent job by Andrew Mahlke to make the suggestion. 

[Andrew Mahlke]

4 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The ChiSox were known spin doctors.  New rules maybe a factor?

That was something I was thinking too. However when I looked into it, Rodon's spin rates from June to the end of the year had very negligible differences. Attached is that chart.

[Twinfan603]

E-Rod is going to get way more to 2/24; if you're not offering at least 4/65 his agent is hanging up on you. Rodon is interesting, but like others have said, very risky. A 5-year deal is too much of a commitment to someone with his injury history. Overpaying is fine, but make it a 2/50 contract then to minimize long-term fallout.

Don't like the idea of trading Sands one bit. He's legit, no matter what his ranking is, and giving away our own good pitching prospects is simply not a good idea no matter what the return is, given the team isn't in win-now mode. You want to send Kepler to Miami for 1 of those pitchers, that's fine by me though.

[Trov]

If they do sign Rondon to that contract Twins better hope last year was not a fluke and he stays healthy.  He had good start to career then went way downhill until last year.  We have seen it before from pitchers that they have a big year get paid big then never live up to that contract, or they maybe have 1 or 2 good years but the last several years of contract is terrible. 

[Karbo]

Kind of fun to do the "what if" thing. Too bad reality and greed sets in at contract time.

[Aerodeliria]

I'm sorry, but IMHO Miami simply doesn't make that trade.

[Doctor Gast]

Andrew I really enjoy your articles, your gift of put supporting data into logic is refreshing. You have given us a lot of good prospects and I thank you. I too like Chris Taylor but as a FA he's going to be expensive and in the end LA will match any reasonable offer and he'll end up there.  But IMO you've overlooked a problem that FO has overlooked for years, the Buxton substitute. It has cost us uncountable games throughout the years. So we need a real CF which can also play the corner OF, to step in CF when need be.. Celestino isn't ready and it'll be unfair to try.  So according to your plan, defensively we not only have a below par LF and a well below par CF but also a well below RF when Buxton is out (which is always more than we expect). So trading away Kepler will cause a lot of problems for Buxton in not only help cover LF but now also RF. So this will cost us more games when Buxton is in the game and I can't see any way we can win any games when he's not. 

Hope you don't take this critique personally because this hole has been overlooked by many for years.

[D.C Twins]

Another great article Andrew! I hope you are a permanent addition to the TD writers.

Well thought out, reasoned, and explained.

First Buxton take on this site that could be possible! 20 mil-ish per year + playing incentives is in the ballpark and his team would at least take that call.

Because the FO failed to have a long term SP plan, they are stuck having to take chances and Rodon is as reasonable as any.

Going into an off season with exactly 0 proven MLB starters is an epic fail (any free agent or trade partner will know that we are desperate and try to take advantage). I like Ober and Ryan but we have yet to see how they will respond when the league has an off season to adjust or how they will hold up over a long season health wise (remember than we though Dobnak would be a stater last season!). Most likely outcome is than one is an effective starter next year and one is not and we should plan for that.

[Tim]

16 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Agree, except BA and the Marlins have him as their number one prospect. I thought about how the Marlins might part with Perez but the Twins don't have enough to get him. Meyer is possibly available for Jeffers and Larnach.

Excellent job by Andrew Mahlke to make the suggestion. 

The Marlins have a lot of pitching that has either recently graduated from prospect status or is dealing with injury. I wouldn't worry too much about rankings all too much

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Tim said:

I wouldn't worry too much about rankings all too much

You are correct and i do not worry at all about how people rank a team's prospects. I cannot find the quote (sorry), but a Marlins official specifically stated that Perez is their most highly thought of prospect, one they will keep. Either way, I love the suggestion by Mahlke and have wanted the Twins to take a chance on a trade with the Marlins for two years. Alcatara was my goal, but I'm good to shift to other pitchers. Any one or better two of Meyer, Perez, or Cabrera would look good at Target Field. 

[Mauer4HOF]

Excellent article and research Andrew!  Lots of players to pick from and directions we could take but everyone you listed makes this roster better.  I like your creative ideas and stats driven insights and agree solid SP is a major priority.  Our farm system (hope that doesn’t offend PETA too) has tons of flexibility in young position players, and our Arm Barn with Duffey, Alcala and T-Rogers back with Tepera and Hembree could be plenty solid if our bats rebound in. 2022.  Nothing like the off-season to build hope!  Keep writing great articles and bringing stats for us to debate - Twins Daily is awesome!

[mike8791]

As others have noted, kudos to your well thought out proposal.  You are a welcome addition to TD! Living in Chicago, I have particular appreciation for Rodon.  He was arguably the best starter in the AL until his injury.  Yes, he is higher risk because of his injury history, but he looked his old self in his late September return and would be a true #1 candidate for years to come.  Sox have said they want to promote Kopech to the rotation, which might lessen their desire to resign Rodon.  The Twins should go hard after this guy.  He is a stud.

Less enthusiastic about Rodriguez as #2 and Kepler trade.  If Rooker and Larnach are starting corner OFs, our defense suffers, as does our lineup.  Rooker is Sano-lite and Larnach might need a full year in the minors.  So why trade Kepler for top prospects when the chances for landing one young starter from either Miami or Oakland(to name two) with a package of Arraez, Jeffers, and one or two of our top 10-20 prospects would improve the 2022 immeasurably more than add to our burgeoning prospect list?  Lastly, your pen is too shaky for my taste.  Hembree, Jax and Dobnak are filler material.  We need help at the top.  Tepera would be a nice add but he has never shown shut-down closer stuff here in Chicago.  Must add an arm like Knebel, Graveman, Iglesias to offset continued uncertainty with Rogers, Duffey and Alcala.

Bottom line, no way the Twins can have a $130MM ceiling and be realistic contenders without a lot of luck - from  injuries to very rapid prospect advances to markedly improved coaching.  Money won't completely mitigate such risks, but would almost certainly help to fill the inevitable holes inherent in a 162 game season.

[Doctor Gast]

The more I think about it, I am open to trade Kepler together with Arraez to get a top of the rotation arm. To me Kepler is a gold glove RF which is very desirable, but corner OF you can get by with less. His hitting is the only ?, he needs to adapt to the non juiced ball and the defense & pitching adaptation to him. So far I haven't seen it which leaves me to doubt if he can.

If we do, we need to address the abyss in the OF, Rooker and Larnach don't come close to fill it. We need to find a real CF to to play the corners and sub for  Buxton. Rooker's glove is really bad, he's more suited at 1B and DH. So I'd trade him, he's not worth much but he might move the needle in a package deal . Larnach has a bright future but he's not ready to play fulltime, he'll platoon with another RH OF outside the organization that can field. Many fans exclaimed in the past that we had great depth in the OF. The quality wasn't there where we had reach from our INF (Arraez, Refsnyder and Gordon) because our OF wasn't getting it done.

[tony&rodney]

On 11/6/2021 at 9:59 AM, Doctor Gast said:

The more I think about it, I am open to trade Kepler together with Arraez to get a top of the rotation arm.

Would Oakland send us Frankie Montas for these two (Arraez & Kepler) plus one of Dobnak/Strotman/Duffey or do we need to sweeten the deal .... or does Oakland not listen on Montas? Who thought the Twins would trade Berrios? Most of TD accepts that trade despite not being happy to see Jose in Toronto. 

[Doctor Gast]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Would Oakland send us Frankie Montas for these two (Arraez & Kepler) plus one of Dobnak/Strotman/Duffey or do we need to sweeten the deal .... or does Oakland not listen on Montas? Who thought the Twins would trade Berrios? Most of TD accepts that trade despite not being happy to see Jose in Toronto. 

I think Oakland is motivated. IMO if they need Arraez, he'd be enough or maybe throw in  a lower prospect. Because Montas has only 2yrs. team control and is much more expensive where as Arraez (I think) has 5yrs. My targets are, if MIA, Reds or CO (if they wake up and commit to rebuild) need a 2B,  I'd shoot for Alcantra, Castillo or Marquez in a package headlined with them.