Doc's RX for 2022: sign Stroman and Gray

[DocBauer]

So I attempted a blog, had to pause, came back the next day to finish and submit. Nowhere to be found. So I'm going to do an abridged and slightly edited version. If the original suddenly shows up, then I beg forgiveness, lol.

My 2022 plan is  based on fixing the starting staff, PERIOD, while addressing a few important but secondary concerns. I do believe the FO/ownership wants to re-tool and be competitive. I believe that lost revenue is just that, as stated by ownership. I also believe that with butts back in the seats, ownership trusts and believes in their FO. And the FO has stated they expect payroll to be about where it has been the past few seasons. This means anywhere from $130-150M. I am playing with a 10% increase from 2021 in order to challenge, compete, etc. With a base of roughly $80M, give or take a few thousand due to arbitration numbers projected but not solidified, that gives me a $143M payroll to play with. (Manageable, but below the roughly $150M mean of the past few ML seasons).

1]  The fjrst thing i do as GM is address Buxton. Hes  signed for $16M per at 5-7yrs with incentives based on games or PA. But something like 100G, 120G, 140G, which pushes him to about $25M or so with additional incentives for Gold Glove, All Star, MAP, that could bring him something around $30M. Fair for both sides and no FO worth a damn really cares about paying incentives for a STUD player who can produce enough to earn those incentives. Why? Because of publicity, merchandising, and a team that is making money.

2] With about $55M to play with after Buxton's guaranteed salary, I address someone to lead my rotation. There are guys that just don't make sense for a variety of reasons. But at the end of the day, the guy that makes the most sense is Stroman. I think he's worth $20M but I'm going in for $22M to get it done for 4yrs if I can, but willing to go 5yrs if I have to. Hes quality and proven. 

3] I really want Gray for 3-4yrs at about $14M per, which I think is fair. The problem there is the Rockies may offer a QO.  He wants more than a 1yr deal. But with the CBA in limbo at the moment, is there even going to be a QO available? I believe the Twins 2022 1st round pick is exempt from a QO loss, but there is a lot of uncertain issues here. He is my 1st choice, and my target. But I may have to, regrettably switch to someone like Wood or Bundy or Matz. Im not depressed by that, but Gray is my choice for $14M per for 3yrs.

4] Pineda is the easy choice for $8M for my 3rd SP unless someone falls in my lap. Hes still solid and proven even if I'm not sure hes going to give me 140-160IP. 

5] Now I need a SS. Sorry, but the staff is the issue and not the offense. Without breaking down the entire roster, there's no room to sign one of the top SS FA options. The offense just needs a little better health, a couple rebounds, and the influx of top talent ready and almost ready. My choice is Galvis at $3M unless my scouts convince me Iglesias is still a quality defensive player despite a reported big slip in 2021. Simmons might be better defensively than anyone and could be a rebound candidate considering past production. But recent history has me signing Galvis. Any way you slice it, my scouts have to tell me which guy to sign for $3M. Im going with Galvis as of now.

6] I need a quality RH RP for the back end of the pen. Im signing Graveman or Knebel for $5-6M. 

7] I have a couple $M to play with at this point. Im going to sign a guy that's been mentioned often here on TD. Im going to "rescue" Kevin Pillar from the Mets and N.Y. for my final $3M-ish to be a quasi OF starter/4th OF. He is NOT the high BA and OB guy we might need, but he offers a combination of experience, power, speed, defense and versatility. He may not be the player he once was, but he provides a bit of everything until Larnach and Celestino are ready.

Considering the fact my FO trusts me, I'm going to ask them my indulgence and offer Kirby Yates a $1M deal with some incentives because we could hit it big with little risk.

In my plan, yes, we are banking on Sano and Kepler being just their normal selves hitting lower in the order and being dangerous if either has a great year, so much the better. But I keep the OF defense intact, as well as keeping a potentially fine/excellent catching tandem in place. The rotation is suddenly solid again with re-enforcements on the way. The pen should be solid with what is on hand and one big addition, in addition to milb depth and a couple flier additions, I would add that I'm thinking I protect Minaya due to past success as well as his half season in 2021, if there's room. 

I really like this team.

Agree or object as you will.

[Doctor Gast]

I like your blueprint, Doc. You addressed the needs and prioritized them. You kept the core and filled the holes. Those FAs are attainable even though CO looks like they are still resisting a full rebuild. I scratch my head over their moves over the years and still do. They've lost their key left side, the only solution is full rebuild. They need to trade off all of their assets, to help build up their poor farm system and not to spend their $ to keep Gray. I like Pillar, I advocated him last year to help get an adequate sub for Buxton. That hole was not filled.

Where I differ from you is that I'd trade off the fat that plugs up our 40 man roster, to help fill our main SP hole. 

[farmerguychris]

I like your plan a lot - keeping Buxton, signing Gray, and Stroman would all be on my wish list for the off season as well!

Couple questions however - for that Buxton deal.  1 -do you think its realistic the Twins would make that offer, and equally important, would Buxton take it?  

The Galvis signing doesn't really do anything for me.  Would he actually take $3M anyway?  Part of me would actually prefer letting Lewis give it a go if he's physically ready to go - like Knoblauch in 91, or Baddoo last year in Detroit - sometimes these young guys even if not deemed ready by the front office can actually their own.  Anyone else there you might consider?

[LastOnePicked]

Not much to object to. Very well argued and reasoned. Do you make house calls, Doc? If so, pay a visit to Falvey and Levine before the Winter Meetings.

[tony&rodney]

The payroll above $140 million open some options - like your ideas. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

The Galvis signing doesn't really do anything for me.  Would he actually take $3M anyway?  Part of me would actually prefer letting Lewis give it a go

Same. I used Galvis in a plan, rather unenthusiastically. If Lewis is healed, which has been reported already, perhaps he can learn on the job. If he is not a shortstop, then we need to pivot sharply. Galvis, Inglesias, Mondesi, DeJong and so forth all have some appeal but are not lighting us up. Why not Lewis? The comparison to Baddoo has merit: talent, injury, inexperience and lack of dominance at lower levels, and worries about hurting their psyche. CF versus SS is different to be sure, but an interesting thought.

[DocBauer]

8 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I like your plan a lot - keeping Buxton, signing Gray, and Stroman would all be on my wish list for the off season as well!

Couple questions however - for that Buxton deal.  1 -do you think its realistic the Twins would make that offer, and equally important, would Buxton take it?  

The Galvis signing doesn't really do anything for me.  Would he actually take $3M anyway?  Part of me would actually prefer letting Lewis give it a go if he's physically ready to go - like Knoblauch in 91, or Baddoo last year in Detroit - sometimes these young guys even if not deemed ready by the front office can actually their own.  Anyone else there you might consider?

In regard to Buxton, you have to provide a guaranteed yearly that feels "fair", for lack of a better term, to provide a base. And I think $16M per shoukd be agreeable to both sides. He's a $30M per year player if healthy for 140 games a season. Of course, he hasn't been that guy. But that's why the incentives take him that high. And yes, IMO, he wants to stay and would do the deal I mentioned. Possibly with a tweak or two. 

As to Galvis, I'm not saying he's exciting. But I need someone for the short term, whether that be 1yr or 2,  that I can depend on and not embarrass himself at the plate, and also keep my budget in place of a $10M bump. If I KNEW Simmons would hit in 2022 like he did the previous 4-5yrs he might  be my choice. If I KNEW Iglesias was going to be great with the glove again in 2022 he might just be my first choice. But while I didn't watch him this past season, everything I've read and heard as he just didn't look like himself at all. Galvis becomes the safest choice for me, good glove, OK bat, decent power for a SS.

I could be b talked in to any of the 3 for the same $3M deal.

[mk]

I think Galvis is the problem - as well as any of the $3MM options at short. I'm no expert so I don't know what defensive metrics are the most useful, but from what I saw Galvis didn't do very well at SS last year. If Galvis or similar is all you're getting and it's a short term solution anyway, slide Polanco over and let Miranda play 2B. Miranda has earned his shot and I'd trust him to make a contribution more than Royce Lewis to start the season. Lewis has just been out too long and he needs some actual gametime. If he proves he's ready, he comes in to play SS and Polanco slides back over to 2B. 

[MN_ExPat]

On 11/4/2021 at 12:10 AM, DocBauer said:

So I attempted a blog, had to pause, came back the next day to finish and submit. Nowhere to be found. So I'm going to do an abridged and slightly edited version. If the original suddenly shows up, then I beg forgiveness, lol.

My 2022 plan is  based on fixing the starting staff, PERIOD, while addressing a few important but secondary concerns. I do believe the FO/ownership wants to re-tool and be competitive. I believe that lost revenue is just that, as stated by ownership. I also believe that with butts back in the seats, ownership trusts and believes in their FO. And the FO has stated they expect payroll to be about where it has been the past few seasons. This means anywhere from $130-150M. I am playing with a 10% increase from 2021 in order to challenge, compete, etc. With a base of roughly $80M, give or take a few thousand due to arbitration numbers projected but not solidified, that gives me a $143M payroll to play with. (Manageable, but below the roughly $150M mean of the past few ML seasons).

1]  The fjrst thing i do as GM is address Buxton. Hes  signed for $16M per at 5-7yrs with incentives based on games or PA. But something like 100G, 120G, 140G, which pushes him to about $25M or so with additional incentives for Gold Glove, All Star, MAP, that could bring him something around $30M. Fair for both sides and no FO worth a damn really cares about paying incentives for a STUD player who can produce enough to earn those incentives. Why? Because of publicity, merchandising, and a team that is making money.

2] With about $55M to play with after Buxton's guaranteed salary, I address someone to lead my rotation. There are guys that just don't make sense for a variety of reasons. But at the end of the day, the guy that makes the most sense is Stroman. I think he's worth $20M but I'm going in for $22M to get it done for 4yrs if I can, but willing to go 5yrs if I have to. Hes quality and proven. 

3] I really want Gray for 3-4yrs at about $14M per, which I think is fair. The problem there is the Rockies may offer a QO.  He wants more than a 1yr deal. But with the CBA in limbo at the moment, is there even going to be a QO available? I believe the Twins 2022 1st round pick is exempt from a QO loss, but there is a lot of uncertain issues here. He is my 1st choice, and my target. But I may have to, regrettably switch to someone like Wood or Bundy or Matz. Im not depressed by that, but Gray is my choice for $14M per for 3yrs.

4] Pineda is the easy choice for $8M for my 3rd SP unless someone falls in my lap. Hes still solid and proven even if I'm not sure hes going to give me 140-160IP. 

5] Now I need a SS. Sorry, but the staff is the issue and not the offense. Without breaking down the entire roster, there's no room to sign one of the top SS FA options. The offense just needs a little better health, a couple rebounds, and the influx of top talent ready and almost ready. My choice is Galvis at $3M unless my scouts convince me Iglesias is still a quality defensive player despite a reported big slip in 2021. Simmons might be better defensively than anyone and could be a rebound candidate considering past production. But recent history has me signing Galvis. Any way you slice it, my scouts have to tell me which guy to sign for $3M. Im going with Galvis as of now.

6] I need a quality RH RP for the back end of the pen. Im signing Graveman or Knebel for $5-6M. 

7] I have a couple $M to play with at this point. Im going to sign a guy that's been mentioned often here on TD. Im going to "rescue" Kevin Pillar from the Mets and N.Y. for my final $3M-ish to be a quasi OF starter/4th OF. He is NOT the high BA and OB guy we might need, but he offers a combination of experience, power, speed, defense and versatility. He may not be the player he once was, but he provides a bit of everything until Larnach and Celestino are ready.

Considering the fact my FO trusts me, I'm going to ask them my indulgence and offer Kirby Yates a $1M deal with some incentives because we could hit it big with little risk.

In my plan, yes, we are banking on Sano and Kepler being just their normal selves hitting lower in the order and being dangerous if either has a great year, so much the better. But I keep the OF defense intact, as well as keeping a potentially fine/excellent catching tandem in place. The rotation is suddenly solid again with re-enforcements on the way. The pen should be solid with what is on hand and one big addition, in addition to milb depth and a couple flier additions, I would add that I'm thinking I protect Minaya due to past success as well as his half season in 2021, if there's room. 

I really like this team.

Agree or object as you will.

Very well said Doc.  I like and approve this message ? 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Well done. My only concern is whether the numbers would work. Will Buxton take a guarantee of "only" 16m and will the Twins give it? Jon Gray at $14m feels a little light; I think he can get $15-17 on a multiyear deal. Same with Pineda at $8m, I think he'll get $9-10.

The big question is Stroman at $22m. I just think he could get more like $25m a year on a long termish kind of deal. 

Even if these higher numbers are right, it only represents another $5-7m a year. That still keeps us at $150m or less. We declined Colome so that gives us a few extra bucks.

Well done sir, well done.  

[DocBauer]

7 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Well done. My only concern is whether the numbers would work. Will Buxton take a guarantee of "only" 16m and will the Twins give it? Jon Gray at $14m feels a little light; I think he can get $15-17 on a multiyear deal. Same with Pineda at $8m, I think he'll get $9-10.

The big question is Stroman at $22m. I just think he could get more like $25m a year on a long termish kind of deal. 

Even if these higher numbers are right, it only represents another $5-7m a year. That still keeps us at $150m or less. We declined Colome so that gives us a few extra bucks.

Well done sir, well done.  

Buxton and his reps understand his situation. The $16M base, IMO, is very fair. Byron and his reps are not unintelligent or un-informed. They understand his situation as well as potential. They ALSO have to weigh the future,  as do the Twins. There is no right or wrong. There remains a balance. Despite everything Buck has brought to the Twins, there remains a value. We can can spend hours about WAR and the such, but when you are NOT  contributing,  there is also a lost value.

So yes, $16M plus incentives that could easily get you to $25M with a fairly easy shot at $28-30M makes sense to me. And it SHOULD make sense to Buxton. If not, he's taking a gamble that could play very poorly.

Gray is a mystery as he MIGHT get a QO. But we're also unsure what that means right now with the CBA in question. Is he looking at the 1yr CBA at $18M? Or is he looking at a longer deal with a better guaranteed result for 3yrs plus? He's still my choice as a #2 because $14M X 3 is $42M and I'd like that a lot better if I was him.

Stoman, from what I have found, made $12M in 2021. Now, I haven't dug deep enough to see what his best $ might have been. But a jump to $18-20M is where I think he should be. I go to $22M to outbid. I like the guy a lot. But he's still not a 200 IP, 200K. Sub .300 ERA  20 game winner. But he is a good, very good #1 front man capable of leading a contending team. I think the $22M is very fair.

Lastly, I think Pineda, despite his success as a Twin, is $8M re-sign. Hes been quality. I think he's an easy sign for multiple reasons. But he's just old enough, missed enough time, that $8M is right.

The biggest problem is NOT manning up enough to sign a TOP guy for $22m. And it's not about signing Pineda as your #3 for around $8M. It's about finding a quality #2 for $12-14m-ish that is the problem. Do you sign someone or trade for someone to fill that role?

 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

The biggest problem is NOT manning up enough to sign a TOP guy for $22m. And it's not about signing Pineda as your #3 for around $8M. It's about finding a quality #2 for $12-14m-ish that is the problem. Do you sign someone or trade for someone to fill that role?

 

This is, to a degree, why I have pushed a trade or two to bring in pitching. A player brought in via trade will cost less payroll, although there may be a dear price to pay in players shifted to the other team. Oakland would like a leadoff batter and some bullpen help. I hope to overwhelm them in order to get the pitcher the Twins need. Two trades may reduce the excess in the Twins system more than many are comfortable with, but it also further reduces the payroll as opposed to signing multiple free agents and in turn it allows our valued prospects time to grow and develop. There will be plenty of innings for prospects in 2022. I cannot imagine that Falvey will sign or trade for 4 or 5 experienced starting pitchers.

Buxton's future as a Twin is a matter that needs to be decided by Falvey, hopefully soon. Maybe it already has been decided. The Twins would not be crazy to allow Byron to play next season as a Twin. If there is a trade proposed that is valuable for the Twins and pessimism is high regarding Buxton returning, the team will act on offers at any time. The proposals using BTV numbers are absurd and if that is what GMs are thinking, then the Twins should just keep him no matter what. I want Buxton as much as anyone but Martin, Lewis, or Celestino should be ready  as reasonable option by 2023. 

My best guess is that the CBA will hold up transactions. I hope it doesn't and it would be best for the teams, players, and fans if the CBA did not cause inaction from now until January or later. 

[mike8791]

You're headed in the right direction Doc, particularly with push to sign a potential #1 pitcher.  Not quite sure Stroman is that ace, but it will certainly take $20-25MM/yr to nab him.  There are just too many teams chasing too few top-of-the-rotation arms.  I think ceiling for Rodon or Ray is higher and since risk is higher, especially for the former, you might save a bit and get a higher upside with one of these two.  Not nearly as high on Gray as a #2; he seems more like Pineda.  As Tony and Rodney said, the trade route to acquire a #2 starter looks much more promising.  We have enough excess players like Jeffers/Garver,  Arraez, Larnach, plus top pitching prospects to land one of the Marlin or A's starters if Falvey can shed his risk-averse nature.  This way we should land a younger, cost-controlled arm who could help immediately.  And while Pineda is not a bad choice as a #3, Twins should seriously attempt a short term signing with higher ceiling/higher risk like Thor to really give the team some heft in the playoffs.

And you very well illustrate need to push budget to $140-150MM range for this team to have any real chance of a strong rebound as early as 2022.  Buxton signing is a must, as is two strong arms for the pen.  Choose 2 from among Knebel, Graveman, Tepera, Iglesias, or Yates.  Then hope for a couple of rebounds(Kepler, Sano), restored health(Kirillof, Buxton, Rogers) and a big improvement in coaching/management to reduce horrendous lack of fundamentals.  Lots of ifs, but certainly plausible if pitching help arrives.

[TopGunn#22]

Excellent job Doc, very well thought out and laid out for all of us to comment on.  I think your initial premise on signing buxton long term is spot on.  The entire off season revolves around keeping him in Minnesota.  To me it's simple:  If Buxton plays, he will produce.  That's why I like your $16 million base salary and bonuses for 100g played, 120, 140 etc...

Stroman is a solid choice at $20-$22 million for 4 years.  I could see myself stretching just a little bit more for Robbie Ray ($25 million).  To me he's clearly the best #1 candidate out there.  He has swing and miss stuff.  The #2 option would be Gausman, but I believe the giants keep him.  

Jon Gray is a solid #2 at $14 million.  I'd really consider going after Eduardo Rodriguez at $12 million a year for 3-4 years.  Of the others you listed Wood is my preferred.  Not big on Bundy or Matz, but Danny Duffey at $12 million wouldn't be awful.  And Pineda at $8 million just makes too much sense, but Big Mike is my #4 SP. 

Here's my thing with the Starting Rotation:  Ryan and Ober WILL be in there, but I think innings limits will be in place for the young guys.  There will certainly be trips to the I.L. by guys at times.  I'd consider a 6 man rotation and here's how I get us there:  You haven't traded for any SP's.  I may go with Gray at $14 million, Eduardo Rodriguez/Danny Duffey at $12 million and Pineda at $8 million.  Ryan and Ober are also there.  I trade Luis Arraez  34.1 BTV to Oakland for Chris Bassitt 20.4 value and James Kaprillian 9.6 value.  Now the staff is Gray, Bassitt, Ed Rod/Duffey,  Pineda, Ryan, Ober.  Kaprillian can be a swing guy (like Jon Gant would be).  This gives the Twins 7 guys (8 if Gant is retained) who could start to begin the season and puts Dobnak in St. Paul where he builds his stamina back up and is yet another SP option.  Injuries will happen.  This gives the Twins DEPTH to whether the storms of the long season.  The Wildcards are Balazovic, Duran and Winder.  How are they looking?  You can NEVER have too much pitching.  We may not have an ACE, but we have a solid staff.  This is MILES ahead of the dumpster fire of last year.

Because I didn't spend on an Ace and built depth, I could sign Pillar or possibly sign Mark Canha for LF who is a better player.

LOVE your plan for the BP.  Graveman would be my #1 target.  Yates at $1 million is an excellent gamble.  I would fight tooth and nail for Graveman but if $5-$6 million a year, (even $7 million) wouldn't do it, or he just doesn't want to come to Minnesota, Cory Knebel would be my next choice.

That leaves us with SS.  Galvis and Iglesias are fine for $3 million.  Neither is "exciting" but they have been competent.  I would still look at Adelberto Mondesi in a trade.  He's a HUGE gamble.  He's ALWAYS hurt.  And despite all his speed he's too much of an all or nothing kind of hitter.  But with Lopez and Bobby Witt Jr. K.C. doesn't need Mondesi.  His BTV is just 5.2.  We could trade a pitcher like Strotman, Winder or Cole Sands, maybe Blayne Enlow for him.  If K.C. would trade him, they'd probably do so for a lottery ticket minor league arm.  

What will make this off season so interesting is that the Twins FO KNOWS what needs to be done.  They need to completely reconstitute a starting rotation and tweak the BP with a couple solid vets like Graveman and Yates.  They need a stopgap SS while they figure out if Lewis or Martin is the SS of the future.  If they make a bold move and acquire Mondesi and hit the jackpot, they can settle on Martin as a LF'er and Lewis as a RF/CF.  They also have catching depth to deal in either Jeffers or Garver to add SP'ing.  They have assets to make some bold moves.  They have LOTS of options to consider.  But in a rather underwhelming A.L. Central Division, they should realize they SHOULD be able to compete.  Heck, they won the division in 2019 & 2020.  They had an epic fail as a FO and a team in 2021.  But a reversal of fortune is certainly possible. 

[DocBauer]

Thought I would take just a moment to thank everyone for your positive comments as well as sharing your own thoughts, opinions and speculation. Keep it coming! 

But I also thought I'd expand slightly on a couple of my choices. I tried to place myself not only within a budget framework that I think is plausible and needed, but I also attempted to place myself in the GM chair actually making calls and decisions that felt REAL to me.

I am, of course, very interested in Gausman, Rodon, Ray, etc. Stroman is not only familiar with the Twins, but they with him. They even tried to acquire him via trade a short time ago. (2019?) He's my choice because I just see him as the most logical to sign.

As I touched on previously, the #2 spot in the rotation is my biggest conundrum. I've said for a while now that I think there's a real 50/50 chance, if not more, that the Twins get that #2 via trade. I've gone the FA route here with Gray, and obviously listed others that I'm interested in here including names that the rest of you have mentioned. I just really like his upside with a change of scenery and working with Johnson. His situation with Colorado is hard to predict, so I'm tenuous with him as my first choice. My reason for going to the FA route is A] The Twins have the money to go this route and NOT have to move anyone, and B] Perhaps I'm just too conservative, but I don't like the idea of depleting our current OF or catcher spots to make such a trade. While pitching is king, important, and needed, I don't like opening another hole/need if I don't have to. It's been my long standing hope/position that I'd like to keep the bulk of the roster intact and trade from within the system similar to the Odorizzi and Maeda deals. I'm hoping the Twins can pull a rabbit out of the hat a 3rd time.

I believe I've already touched on my SS choice previously...3 names I'm seriously considering, all mentioned before...but Galvis, IMO, might be the "safest" choice to bank on.

And while LF is a spot that needs more production, if we can keep CF and RF intact, I like the multiple options available to put put there until someone jumps up and grabs the spot. Again, Pillar doesn't exactly bring in a high contact, high OB% bat that would be great to have, but he brings experience, versatility, some power and speed, and helps against LH pitching which has been a recent bane. 

Thanks for the comments and opinions and keep them coming!