Luis Arraez: Trade Candidate?

[Cody Pirkl]

Sometimes change hurts. In the Twins case, they’ve opened the door for a whole lot of it after flopping in 2021. Headed into the winter, they’ll have to explore every path to bounce back in 2022. Some of those paths may be surprising.

Luis Arraez is one of the most fun players on the Twins roster. Everything from his unmatched ability to get the barrel to the ball to his aggressive head shaking after taking a pitch is entertaining to watch. He wasn’t much of a top prospect, but has made the most of his opportunity after being called up in 2019 due to injuries. Little has changed with Luis Arraez the player, but the Twins’ perception of him may have.

Arraez appeared to be the second baseman of the future when he arrived in 2019. The energy and variety he brought to a record-setting power team made it easy to imagine slotting him into the middle infield for years to come. Amid all of that excitement, however, it was easy to overlook his defensive shortcomings. 

Fast-forward two years. Luis Arraez holds a .313/.374/.403 batting line. He’s more than held up his side of the bargain offensively. In those two years however, so much around him has changed. Jorge Polanco made the permanent switch to Arraez’s home position, pushing him into a rotation between second, third, and corner outfield. The Twins have also signed Josh Donaldson, and now Jose Miranda appears to be the future of the hot corner in Minnesota. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach debuted and will get solid MLB time in 2022 with several corner outfielders shortly behind them in the minors. 

Having too many quality players is far from a problem, but the real concern comes from the quickly mounting injury history. At 24 years old, he’s suffered significant injuries to both knees, the side effects of which can commonly be seen on the base paths or following awkward swings. In 2020, injury cost Arraez 28 games out of the 60 game season. In 2021, Arraez missed 41 games and looked to be fighting through some kind of injury a good amount of the time.

Unfortunately the game of baseball is unforgiving, and it’s rare to see such long standing recurring knee issues improve with age. Is it possible the Twins see more value in shopping Luis Arraez on the trade market?

Regarding highly sought after defensive positions (and positions the Twins have a need at), Arraez can’t fill in at shortstop or center field. He’s also not particularly strong at the positions he does play. In Outs Above Average per Statcast, he was worth -1 in left field, -1 at third base and -3 at second. His defensive flexibility consists of positions that are easy to fill on the market if the Twins already emerging long term solutions there don’t work out as planned.

This is not to say the Twins should necessarily actively look to dump Luis Arraez. Heading into 2022 with him platooning and spelling starters to get his bat in the lineup would be far from a bad thing. That being said, everything good about Luis Arraez makes him a valuable trade asset. His bat is special, he’s incredibly cheap and controllable, and he isn’t locked into one single position. In regards to assets the Twins have on their roster to trade, it may not get any better than Luis Arraez.

 

It would be a difficult decision, but someone like Max Kepler or Miguel Sano wouldn’t bring in any kind of impact arm the Twins will certainly be looking for. It may be easy for them to look over the roster and see Arraez as a solid bat in the lineup that’s buried at several positions. They may also weigh the long term health gamble on his knees which could continue costing him significant time.

Should the Twins trade Luis Arraez? That question likely has a lot to do with what they can get in return. It’s safe to say the idea has crossed their mind however, and possibly could be looked at more closely this winter for a roster that needs a significant shakeup. Should the Twins even consider it? Let us know below.

For More Twins content: 
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
— Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here

View full article

[ToddlerHarmon]

No

The Twins don't have a DH (especially if Kirilloff is needed in the outfield,  which looks likely)

Besides Arraez, the Twins only have Donaldson who can regularly get on base at over a 350 clip

The better defenders in his positions are older and more expensive. And some stats were tracking him as better than Donaldson at 3B now.

At his age, he is one of the new, cheap crop to keep until pitching arrives. The rest of the established core will be on the wrong side of 30 very soon

Donaldson needs to be kept fresh if he can't be traded, and will bring a bigger haul if he can be

And finally, the bat to ball skills aren't merely entertaining. They are the unteachable offensive skill. And the Twins have darn few others in the organization who can match Arraez on that, and no youngsters who have proven it in MLB

[DJL44]

I think they may have already tipped their hand on this one. Falvey wants more home runs in the lineup and that is something you will never get from Luis Arraez. Jose Miranda is ready and can play every position that Arraez can play. Miranda hit 30 HR in the minors this year (with a .344 batting average).

Arraez is pretty much at peak trade value right now. He's a proven utility infielder who gets on base. Someone will be interested in acquiring him.

[TopGunn#22]

I have come to the realization, quite reluctantly, that Arraez should be traded.  He's one of my favorite players to watch, but with Polanco firmly entrenched at 2B and the MASSIVE need for pitching I can't see it NOT happening.  I would not give him away, but he's the Twins BEST trade asset to acquire pitching.  Yes, we have some young guys that are getting close.  But pitching in baseball is like QB's in football.  You can never have too much of it.  You can always get something "good" on the trade market with a surplus of pitching.  Oakland and Miami are trade possibilities for Arraez, probably a few others.  With Miranda being able to cover every position Arraez does and Gordon as well,  I see a trade in the Twins future.  

[Vanimal46]

It will be wise to trade one of Arraez or Polanco this winter so the other can handle 2B duties full time. Out of the 2, I prefer trading away Arraez. Though an argument can be made that Polanco is at his peak value and won’t improve more than what we saw last season. 

[Doctor Gast]

Cody you picked an explosive topic. I like Arraez, there is no one who can match his ability to put the bat on the ball. But I'm on the trade Arraez side for reasons I'll list.

#1 Although trade stock has slide a bit his stock is overrated and is one of highest on the club (to get much needed top notch pitching, he's the prime candidate to headline a trade). #2 He's a liability on defense and on the bases. 

#3 Offensively a good defense can shut him down. As defenses get to know him their OF will play him "in" because of his weak bat, even if he hits the ball over their heads they normally can run underneath it. INF can play him deep because he's slow. Thus greatly reducing his field of play.

#4 He's expendable, the only position where he won't hurt us defensively is DH. He's not a typical DH and we have ton of players that fit in this category.

#5 Injuries, as stated he's got bad knees, which will continue affect his performance & playing time.

Last year I advocated to trade him for pitching when his stock was up there. Now his value has slipped and will continue to slip until he'll be worthless to trade. I don't see any avenue for him to retain any of his present value. Here we have an opportunity to put him in a package to get quality pitching. Pull the trigger.

[mikelink45]

It depends on what is offered.  For me, anyone can be traded if the team improves by the trade.  I only question his value to other teams - who would want him and how much would they give.  His BA slipped this year, his fielding is average, and the league is power hungry.  I do not see much return even though I personally like him a lot. 

[Squirrel]

I've been suggesting this for a couple years now. I think trading Arraez makes the most sense, both in making room for Miranda and for potential return value. But, like what mikelink45 said above, it depends on the return. 

[jorgenswest]

I would trade Arraez for starting pitching. Three paths they might pursue.

Seek a ready but not yet established younger start and bet on the upside. The Guardians McKenzie comes to mind.

Seek an established younger starter and add a few prospect arms like Woods-Richardson and Canterino. The Giants Webb comes to mind.

Seek an established number top of the rotation starter with one year left before free agency. Berrios comes to mind.

I am not necessarily advocating for those three specifically but just outlining different paths. Do they go for upside of an unestablished but promising pitcher? Do they trade away some upside to get an established pitcher with control? Do they maximize the return for 2022 without sacrificing the prospect upside?

Which is the better path for Twins? 

 

[Unwinder]

I feel like between him and Polanco, one's gotta go. The infield is a position of strength for the Twins, Sano and Donaldson have negative trade value, and we have exciting prospects making third base look like a logjam. I don't WANT to lose either Polo or Arraez. Polonco is a good player coming off a great season, and Arraez is playing the sort of high-contact baseball that I want to see more of (plus he's a close 2nd most entertaining stocky short guy on the team). Overall I think Polanco's going to contribute more to winning (and can bring in a bigger haul), but Arraez is the one I'd rather tune in to watch.

Of course, if we can't extend Buxton the trade situation looks a lot different.

[dxpavelka]

Better off trading him than pretending he might be an outfielder. 

[dxpavelka]

49 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I feel like between him and Polanco, one's gotta go. The infield is a position of strength for the Twins, Sano and Donaldson have negative trade value, and we have exciting prospects making third base look like a logjam. I don't WANT to lose either Polo or Arraez. Polonco is a good player coming off a great season, and Arraez is playing the sort of high-contact baseball that I want to see more of (plus he's a close 2nd most entertaining stocky short guy on the team). Overall I think Polanco's going to contribute more to winning (and can bring in a bigger haul), but Arraez is the one I'd rather tune in to watch.

Of course, if we can't extend Buxton the trade situation looks a lot different.

If we don't extend Buxton a LOT of things are going to look different.  We'd better acclimate ourselves to the fact that it's going to cost a whole lot more money than most Twins fans will think he's worth.  Saw somebody recently suggest on here that 5 years $84 million would get it done.  Laughed my $@! off.

[Karbo]

I've been in the trade him mode since the end of 2020. I really enjoy watching him play, however a slap hitter with virtually no speed and average at best defense that plays a couple of positions that are well stocked by more rounded players or players with higher upside can be traded without a serious downside to the team.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

If we don't extend Buxton a LOT of things are going to look different.  We'd better acclimate ourselves to the fact that it's going to cost a whole lot more money than most Twins fans will think he's worth.  Saw somebody recently suggest on here that 5 years $84 million would get it done.  Laughed my $@! off.

Since Buxton agreed with 7 years and $80MM + incentives... 5 years and $84MM guaranteed seems pretty reasonable. Then again, the ruder and more abusive you get towards people on the internet, the stronger your point becomes and better you are as a person, right?

[bean5302]

Luis Arraez, as he is right now, is a second baseman due to lack of playing time at other positions, and even at 2B, he's SSS because the Twins had no place to play him consistently. His arm should play at SS and his range plays at 3B, but the combination of physical skills he has best suits him to 2B. Arraez has never been viewed as a SS, though it's clear he has the arm strength for the position, and he's technically faster than, say, Andrelton Simmons. Typically, Arraez's defensive metrics put him as essentially average, limited by range.

On the other side of his game, Arraez's bat plays, but it's old school. Baseball in general is enamored with 3 outcome batters so Arraez doesn't fit the mold at all and he slumped pretty badly to end the season. That may have impacted his trade value.

In regard to the oft injured status, Arraez has been advised by team physicians he can significantly improve his knee durability through strengthening his legs and lightening up, but it remains to be seen if he has the motivation.

Baseballtradevalues has recently updated it's values and probably has Arraez at about the right spot. In the same area as Kirilloff, Polanco, Lewis and Martin. Not super elite, but definitely worth being the centerpiece of a major trade.

[mike8791]

The reality is that none of us know his trade value, incl. ML Trade values, but their current rating for Arraez is 33.  Adding Jeffers @ 20 and someone like Canterino(10) you have a "trade" for Lopez who currently has a 65 value.  I would think that would be an enticing package for the Fish.  This trade makes sense for Twins who have Garver as #1 catcher, Arraez without a clear position and Canterino a very promising but totally unproven prospect.  Lopez does not have a long track record but by all reports, has the makings of a strong #2 starter who is controlled for several years.   This is exactly the kind of trade the Twins Brain Trust should be all over!

[TopGunn#22]

I agree Mike8791.  To get someone like Lopez, you'd have to give a lot up and that would work.  I also think, if I was Miami, I'd want another young, live arm coming back in the deal like Canterino to have as a lottery ticket to replace someone like Lopez.  Do I want to cut ties with Arraez, Jeffers and Canterino ?  No.  But to get Lopez ?  YES !  We need a young arm like that.  Closer to MLB than Balazovic and Duran.  It is a good example of when a trade can help BOTH teams.  Will it happen ?  I don't know.  But I HOPE so.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

7 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

No

The Twins don't have a DH (especially if Kirilloff is needed in the outfield,  which looks likely)

Besides Arraez, the Twins only have Donaldson who can regularly get on base at over a 350 clip

The better defenders in his positions are older and more expensive. And some stats were tracking him as better than Donaldson at 3B now.

At his age, he is one of the new, cheap crop to keep until pitching arrives. The rest of the established core will be on the wrong side of 30 very soon

Donaldson needs to be kept fresh if he can't be traded, and will bring a bigger haul if he can be

And finally, the bat to ball skills aren't merely entertaining. They are the unteachable offensive skill. And the Twins have darn few others in the organization who can match Arraez on that, and no youngsters who have proven it in MLB

Well said. I agree.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

While the Twins are playing, I can sometimes be doing other things while the game is going on in the background, EXCEPT when Buck, or Arraez are batting or Maeda or Ryan are pitching.  I always watch these 4, every time.

[bean5302]

Adding a bunch of individuals together to get to the same value as a single player won't necessarily make the trades "even." A single player worth 65 is generally more valuable than a collection of players worth 65.

To get a healthy Lopez, I think the Twins would need to do something like Arraez, Kirilloff and Canterino.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Seek an established top of the rotation starter with one year left before free agency. Berrios comes to mind.

Oakland is not going to want to pay all of Manea, Bassitt and Montas.

[Reptevia]

Buxton agreed to a 7 year $80m contract?  Hurray!  Here I thought he wanted $25-30M AAV. 

[dxpavelka]

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Since Buxton agreed with 7 years and $80MM + incentives... 5 years and $84MM guaranteed seems pretty reasonable. Then again, the ruder and more abusive you get towards people on the internet, the stronger your point becomes and better you are as a person, right?

And yet he's not signed....

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Adding a bunch of individuals together to get to the same value as a single player won't necessarily make the trades "even." A single player worth 65 is generally more valuable than a collection of players worth 65.

To get a healthy Lopez, I think the Twins would need to do something like Arraez, Kirilloff and Canterino.

Have to agree no team is trading a pitcher with this profile without getting back an elite prospect.  These trades are always presented as multiple decent players for a great player but when does that actually ever happen?

[TopGunn#22]

But i also agree that Oakland will have some players available and Montas, Bassitt, Manaea and Kaprieillian in addition to a couple of RP's could be had for the right package.

[roger]

Absolutely love this kid and envision him as the Twins lead off hitter for years.  And if he were put at second and left there, his D will be ok.  Unfortunately, Polanco is and should stay their second baseman.

great article and discussion.  I have joined the camp who believe a trade maybe best for him and the Twins, assuming they get a good return.

if not, he will be the backup at second and third with lots of games as DH.  He should never be seen again in the outfield,

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

And yet he's not signed....

They didn't agree on incentives. The Twins were supposedly north of $100MM with incentives, but while Buxton was okay with the guaranteed portion, he wanted a different incentive package. No real details of the incentive package were ever disclosed.

Increasing the base guaranteed wage from $11.4MM to $16.8MM and shortening the length to 5 years allowing Buxton to enter free agency at 33 (assuming year 1 of the contract replaces next year) wouldn't likely be laughed off.

[HerbieFan]

If they can get pitching help for him, this is a no-brainer IMO

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

They didn't agree on incentives. The Twins were supposedly north of $100MM with incentives, but while Buxton was okay with the guaranteed portion, he wanted a different incentive package. No real details of the incentive package were ever disclosed.

Increasing the base guaranteed wage from $11.4MM to $16.8MM and shortening the length to 5 years allowing Buxton to enter free agency at 33 (assuming year 1 of the contract replaces next year) wouldn't likely be laughed off.

And yet he's not signed..

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, HerbieFan said:

If they can get pitching help for him, this is a no-brainer IMO

What if it's a SS?  What if it's pitching prospects.  It would seem that a team trading for Arraez would be a contender and contenders generally don't trade established major league pitching, right?