Minnesota Needs to Outbid for an Ace

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd go for Ray, the strikeouts are real and proven and it sounds like his delivery and approach changes are sustainable. Seems like he might even have room to grow.

I'd be on board for rolling the dice on Syndergaard and Rodon also.

I'm not sure about Gausman, I'm always hesitant about pitchers leaving SF. I'd probably sign him if they can't make the above guys work, but he seems just as likely as not to turn back into a pumpkin.

Hard pass on Stroman, the Twins need an arm that can dominate. Good results, but he still needs his defenders to make most of his outs for him. He'd be a good #3 on a playoff team, but the Twins would pay him like an ace. 

Even if 2022 isn't the year to win a WS, it would still be a good idea to get a big time pitcher, since the idea would be that the guy would be at the front of the rotation for several years. Get a big arm now, trade for someone else exciting and play some professional baseball in 2022. Then do something bold the following year to get serious.

I agree on Ray. See my workup using the format that Nick Nelson used - in Greg Allen’s blog.

[AceWrigley]

You cant use "overpay" and a "Pohlad owned business" in the same sentence. Not gonna happen.

[AceWrigley]

Trading for a few young exceptional arms is probably the better route.

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Trading for a few young exceptional arms is probably the better route.

Do you have any specific trades as a guess?

[USAFChief]

11 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Trading for a few young exceptional arms is probably the better route.

Trading for "a few young exceptional arms" is almost impossible.  

[AceWrigley]

Too bad the Diamondbacks picked up Edwin Uceta when the Dodgers designated him from their roster during the playoffs. A young drop and drive right hander who looks pretty athletic with a repeatable delivery. Average fastball, good overhand curve and good feel for the change. Might get some starts but will probably end up in the bullpen. I was hoping the Twins would have a chance to pick him up as he has options remaining too.

[AceWrigley]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Trading for "a few young exceptional arms" is almost impossible.  

Luis Gil.

[Thegrin]

This occurred to me after I wrote my response: "I wouldn't want to join any Club that would have me for a member." - Groucho Marx

[TwinsDr2021]

48 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

 If that isn't viable or the FO decides the long-term development route is the way to go,

That goes against everything this FO and ownership has been saying since they got here. And IMO if that is plan, they should be fired.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Should have over paid Berrios and locked him up for his career. He has a better chance than any of the others to avoid injuries, due to his workout routines.  Plus, Twins fans love Jose Berrios. 

I thought Berrios made it pretty clear he didn't want an extension and he certainly wasn't going to take a discount. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

We're back to using the word "ace" very loosely I see.  If people don't like their starters being pulled after 5 they're going to hate Robbie Ray.

We need good, consistent pitchers.  Who cares how you slot them.

Robbie Ray averaged over 6 IP a start last year. He lead the league in IP in fact. 

Only four pitchers threw 200 innings last year, all in the NL; I think the league has decided that quality is better than quantity.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

35 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

Luis Gil.

So the Twins should trade for a guy that 4 years from now will make 6 starts?

(I know it has been 5 seasons but since there wasn't one for him 2020 , I said 4)

 

[terrydactyls]

I looked a one of the trade simulator websites a couple days ago to see what a Sandy Alcantera would cost in prospects.  The best combination of players ended up being Alcantera and relief pitchers Richard Bleier (value: 82.9) for Arraz, Kepler, Garver, and Wood Richardson (value: 82.5).  Any interest??

[James]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I thought Berrios made it pretty clear he didn't want an extension and he certainly wasn't going to take a discount. 

Yeah.  He did.  That's why I don't get all the trade hate. 

Lots of people around here want to FO to "be more like the Rays" and build up a strong farm with good teams.  But the Rays trade players when they're at peak value to keep the farm strong.  That's exactly what Falvine did with Berrios.  The trade hurt emotionally, but this is exactly what good FO's do with a guy that has made it clear he's not signing an extension.  

(Note: I'm not passing the Twins' FO is good or bad, just that I feel they made the right move in this particular case).  

[Boom Boom]

I don't see any of these guys signing with the Twins coming off a last-place finish.

I think we will see an Odorizzi or Maeda level trade as the big acquisition for 2022.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, James said:

Yeah.  He did.  That's why I don't get all the trade hate. 

Lots of people around here want to FO to "be more like the Rays" and build up a strong farm with good teams.  But the Rays trade players when they're at peak value to keep the farm strong.  That's exactly what Falvine did with Berrios.  The trade hurt emotionally, but this is exactly what good FO's do with a guy that has made it clear he's not signing an extension.  

(Note: I'm not passing the Twins' FO is good or bad, just that I feel they made the right move in this particular case).  

The trade hurt emotionally, no doubt. It’s also going to hurt financially. Because now we are looking at pitchers that are his caliber, maybe slightly better for double the price of his last arbitration year. Martin better be a stud to make it worthwhile.  

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Robbie Ray averaged over 6 IP a start last year. He lead the league in IP in fact. 

Only four pitchers threw 200 innings last year, all in the NL; I think the league has decided that quality is better than quantity.

 

 

Yes, but it was also a career high by about 20 innings for him.  I'm not sure that's what we would expect going forward.  Historically he's about a 5 inning guy.

[RonCoomersOPS]

I would much rather see us do our homework and find the next Odorizzi than blow our wad on a pitcher. Bonus points if we can land him in exchange for Jermaine Palacios.

The priority has almost singularly got to be extending Buxton. Without Buxton, it almost doesn't matter who is on the mound.

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

I would much rather see us do our homework and find the next Odorizzi than blow our wad on a pitcher. Bonus points if we can land him in exchange for Jermaine Palacios.

The priority has almost singularly got to be extending Buxton. Without Buxton, it almost doesn't matter who is on the mound.

The 2021 season had Buxton and the guys on the mound absolutely mattered.  Partly because having Byron Buxton doesn't really mean you actually get all that much Buxton, but one baseball player cannot singlehandedly will a team to competence.  Just ask Mike Trout.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Trading for "a few young exceptional arms" is almost impossible.  

Almost, so you are saying it is possible too. C'mon Falvey, get it done.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

As long as this thread has grown to encompass trading for young pitchers as opposed to signing older ones: I just went to Baseball Trade Values dot com to play around with Twins/Marlins trades; apparently their front page features recent trades that people have calculated, and this was at the top:

"Twins get: Jesús Luzardo, Max Meyer; Marlins get Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach"

The values their system calculates are about even, but this seems like an case where those values wouldn't line up with what both teams want from a deal...but holy hell, that would be great to see as a real trade.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I thought Berrios made it pretty clear he didn't want an extension and he certainly wasn't going to take a discount. 

He didn't tell me that when I talked to him. Well....... I admit that was years ago at spring training ago and I said "Good luck this year" and Jose said "Thanks".  That's about it. But he never told me would not sign an extension during our conversation. Maybe I did read to much into our conversation.   

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Boom Boom said:

I don't see any of these guys signing with the Twins coming off a last-place finish.

I think we will see an Odorizzi or Maeda level trade as the big acquisition for 2022.

If we could get two pitchers as good as Odo and Maeda, I'd be happy.

[gman]

Since the front office's stated objective is sustained excellence, that negates blowing up the prospect list to trade for 1 pitcher. I also don't think any top free agent pitcher is signing to come here. I think it's most likely that Pineda or a similar pitcher is leading our rotation next year. I can see some shakeups in the lineup this winter or by next July at the latest to bring in more top pitching prospects.

[TopGunn#22]

I too want to see the FO put together a team that can compete for the division in 2022.  It's not a division where you can win 106 games and finish 2nd.  Ray would be my target because the swing and miss stuff is for real.  he had a season last year that Berrios will probably never have.  That's not meant to be a slight to Berrios.  Jose is "good" but he's not "GREAT."  Berrios will never win a CY Young.  Guys like Jon Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Pineda--they are good #2, #3, #4 type pitchers.  They should all be on the radar.  But Baseball Trade Values is updating player values at this time and trades I had proposed earlier no longer work.  I traded Jeffers & Larnach 56.6 total value to Miami for Alcantara 56.6 total value.  Well, NOW that trade would be Larnach & Jeffers 39.8 value for Alcantara 78.4 value.  NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN.  (and i agree with how Alcantara's value went "up" and how Jeffers and Larnach went "down").

So now the trade would be:  Jeffers & Larnach 39.8 for max Meyer 28.1 and Jesus Luzardo 10.0 (total 38.10).  It's not a #1 or #2 like Alcantara would be, but it's two young arms with flaws but potential that seem closer to the Big Leagues than Balazovic, Duran or Winder.  So I need to spend a little more time at Baseball Trade Values to "rediscover" what a players value is.  Last I saw, Frankie Montas was valued at about 45.3.  I'm almost afraid to find out what it is now.  But I remember building a workable trade with the A's for Montas with Arraez 34.1 and Matt Canterino 9.6.  Not sure if that would be workable now.  

[Wax off]

4 hours ago, James said:

Yeah.  He did.  That's why I don't get all the trade hate. 

Lots of people around here want to FO to "be more like the Rays" and build up a strong farm with good teams.  But the Rays trade players when they're at peak value to keep the farm strong.  That's exactly what Falvine did with Berrios.  The trade hurt emotionally, but this is exactly what good FO's do with a guy that has made it clear he's not signing an extension.  

(Note: I'm not passing the Twins' FO is good or bad, just that I feel they made the right move in this particular case).  

I like the trade, but would be critical of it if the advice is to outbid for an "ace", that is the topic. I just think if the Twins were looking drop a lot of money on a pitcher to lead the 2022 rotation, they already had Berrios who I'm guessing will cost a lot less in his final year than a FA equivalent.

If they were to drop a fortune on a guy to lead the rotation, couldn't it have been Berrios? Because you could have him cheaper this year and outbid for him next year anyway. He could've been the ace this article is referring to.

Anybody better than Berrios is going to have an exorbitant price, do I think Berrios and his agent would have listened to and accepted the bounty the author of this article is implying we spend? I have my doubts the agent was instructed to cover his ears with his hands if approached by the Twins with an offer to extend the contract. If they'd heard a number the likes of the one that's gonna land a fish bigger than Berrios in FA, I doubt they would've balked. But I could be wrong.

It all just tells me that they aren't going to do what is being suggested in the article.

Take it with a grain of salt, because I'll admit I am severely biased toward offering the massive overpay recommended here to a SS rather than a pitcher.

 

[AceWrigley]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So the Twins should trade for a guy that 4 years from now will make 6 starts?

(I know it has been 5 seasons but since there wasn't one for him 2020 , I said 4)

 

No, the previous poster had said it's nearly impossible to trade for exceptional young arms and I was just using as reference that the Yankees in 2018 (3 years ago) acquired just that for a reserve outfielder to boot. I never said it was an overnight process, just that you can acquire and/ or develop a stable of possible aces to populate your starting rotation.

The percentage of payroll that a free agent ace will cost is too great a risk for the Twins. Heck, even the vaunted Yankees had to play a single-game playoff this year, started their $36 million-dollar-man, and still lost. No matter how good you are, the post season is still kind of a crap shoot. I think it was Roger who posted earlier that a rotation of #2's and #3's can carry you a long way both during the season and into the post season, and be affordable year over year. And yes, you better have a decent bullpen.

[DocBauer]

First of all, we just need to STOP talking about an ACE pitcher. When you have one, it's AWESOME. But it guarantees nothing. Witness the Yankees and the Dogers right now. 

And I would LOVE the Twins to have an ACE to front their rotation. But again, look at the teams in the WS right now.

Stop treating the Twins as a lousy franchise. There is a lot of talent in place and and more than a few prospects just ready to contribute or explode. 

The Twins had a lousy 2021. But Boston and SF and Atlanta were supposed to do nothing or next to nothing. As built right now, the Twins have 2 consecutive ALC flags before 2021. They have a nucleus of a good offensive team in place. They have some key components in the pen initially and a FO that is respected amongst agents. 

With money to spend, why wouldn't Stoman, Gray, Gausman, Rodon, not look at the Twins as an option?

The Twins can easily place any of these 4 in their payroll for 4 years to front their rotation as a 1 or 2 without blowing up payroll. And Pineda can easily slide in to the #3 slot initially. 

The problem is, who slots in to the #2 slot? The Twins probably need to spend $5-6M for ONE ARM for the BP.

Unless the FO pulls another rabbit out of the hat, they are going to have to make  a trade for a #2 SP.

OR, they will push the 2022 payroll to $145+ and let it fly and take a flier  and run with it.

[old nurse]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The myth and legend of the hurt ace a team overspent on continues! I wrote a pretty lengthy article on the subject a couple months ago. Aces are good investments whereas typical dumpster dives and mid rotation starters have been poor investments for the Twins. Even if, in the unlikely case an Ace declines, they're still a mid rotation starter.

Looking at the 9 ace contracts I identified since 2015, 80% have been decent, 70% have been good, and nearly 50% have been excellent deals. 8 of 9 had provided Ace level performance 4.0+ WAR in at least one season since their signing. The best part was that Ace's rebound from the unlikely event of an injury with only a 10% chance per year an Ace loses a season.

Bottom line? The injury risk is overstated, the performance risk is overstated and the cost risk is overstated.

 

 

I do hope people read the comments section where they shred your analytic methods

[TopGunn#22]

I agree that to spend big money on a front of the rotation starter has never been a Twins "trait.'  (With the exception of Jack Morris and unfortunately, it only lasted one year).  So I agree, the trade route is the most likely place they enhance their starting rotation.  Still, if guys like Eduardo Rodriguez, Jon Gray and Pineda can be added at reasonable prices, they COULD have the financial flexibility to sign a SS like Baez. (even though I still like going after Mondesi).  They COULD have the ability to sign a closer for the bullpen.  

I still maintain that with 40% of their rotation depending on Ryan and Ober, who will be pitch and innings "limited" throughout the year, they should sign two of Ed. Rod, Jon Gray or Pineda and still sign a lottery ticket like Andrew Heaney. then make a trade to bring in an arm or two and have a pitching staff that begins with depth.  It's a LONG season.  People will get hurt.  They need depth so they can baby the young arms they have and those that are knocking on the door for 2022.  Once we've put two "normal" baseball seasons behind us the twins can cut loose with Ryan, Ober, Balazovic, Duran, Winder and Canterino (or whoever they didn't package in a trade for immediate help).  We need LOTS of arms.  So maybe an approach like this, targeting BETTER pitchers than the Happ/Shoemaker debacle would be successful.  I'd be happy to see the Twins go to war with pitchers like Ed Rod, Jon Gray and Pineda.  And I'd not be critical of taking a chance on a guy like Heaney whose "stuff' is far superior to Happ/Shoemaker.