my 2022 roster

[Brandon]

So I went into this and figured there are several key factors that need to happen. 

1.  the Twins sign Buxton to an extension.  I don't have the specifics for how the incentives will play out but apparently the base pay of around 10 million is agreed to as a good start.  So lets get the incentives together and finish this deal.

2.  From rotations of Twins past, the Twins have always found value on the Free Agent market.  And they go for an average rotation.  That is just reality.  Since it seems there is a good chance the Twins will resign Pineda if for nothing else to give the rotation 3 starters and allow the team to work from the position of only needing 1 more starter to give us a mostly competent rotation going into next year.  in 2021, I think one of our biggest problems was that our 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th starters were all hurt almost all season.  in 2022 we have 5 starters who are near ready to pitch in the majors.  And with how I reshape our rotation we will have 2 long relievers in the pen who could start or pitch several innings in a game out of the pen.  We also have depth like Jax, Barnes and maybe Smeltzer to be a 12th, 13th, or 14th starter.....  You can never have too much pitching right?  So with all of our own prospects coming up I have us signing Matz to a 2 year 25 million contract.  He is good for 5 innings and gives us a chance to win and a lefty for the rotation.  Gray is the other starter I signed to a 4 year 60 million contract with a 5th option to make it a 75 million deal.  With us having 5 prospects and the return of Maeda, I wasn't sure if this was overkill for our rotation.  But since I didn't go crazy spending anywhere else, I figured why not.  We could plug any number of starters in place of Matz or Gray.  There is also Alex Wood, DeSclafani, Stroman, Danny Duffey, Alex Cobb, Garrett Richards, Brett or Tyler Anderson, Eduardo Rodriguez..... With 5 prospects in AA and AAA and Maeda coming back from a modified tommy John surgery, we have options if we want to sign someone replaceable like Heaney or use Gant or Dobnak in the rotation to save some money.  We also have the tools for a trade here with Florida or Oakland.  I see one potential mid term contract and a short term contract for the rotation.  And the need for depth.  

In the pen I didn't make many moves.  nothing earth shattering.  It just feels like we have enough internally to make it work.  I can see us signing players on the cheap to compete for spots.  and if we get an extra starter then we may not need Gant for next season either.  and then we could sign a reliever.  Moran is at the ready to be called up, 

As for the lineup, we already talked about Buxton.  I am advocating for Chris Taylor to be signed as he won't require as long of a commitment and he doesn't block Lewis at SS long term.  Chris Taylor can be the next utility player to play everyday starting in 2023 if need be.  Or he could stay at SS a little longer.  The positions will be in flux as players rotate around to give the team flexibility.  I see Sano getting the most time at DH but also see Donaldson, Rooker, Killeroff, and others some time there throughout the season.  Killeroff, Garver and Sano will man 1B, Donaldson, Arraez, and Miranda at 3B.  I see Miranda getting some time in LF along with Rooker, Martin, Killeroff and Larnarch and whoever is the hot bat will  get the bulk of the time.  If more then 1 bat succeeds in LF don't be surprised to see Kepler lose some playing time in RF.  or if/ when Buxton misses time one of the other hitters can get some time there.  

On the bench, I see Gordon, and Arraez as the 2 go to players and Jeffers as the back up Catcher.  As for the 4th OF it could be that 3 OFers Rooker, Miranda, or Martin and Kepler rotate regularly to keep everyone fresh.  If Astudillo and Refsnyder do not latch on with other teams I can see the Twins signing them to AAA deals.  The Twins love them some depth and until the end of last season when Astudillo cratered he was a league average bat and could play almost anywhere.  I do not have him on the bench to start the season but he is there to provide depth.  

And lastly, If the Twins Budget is 130 million vs the 136 million I used, then I see the Twins only signing 1 starter this offseason and it could be any one of a number of mid rotation starters like Gray or Matz.  Someone capable of going 5-6 innings for around 15 million per season The other starter would likely be Gant or Dobnak to start the season.  That would free up 5-6 million for another reliever.  since one of our relievers would go into the rotation...  

Analysis:  We end up with a pitching staff that would be ranked 5-8 in the league.  I think slightly above average but not by much and an offense that just mashes and finishes in the top 3-4 in scoring.  We end up +120 - +150 in runs scored vs runs against and win around 88-93 games and make the playoffs.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Are you going 3 man bench and one of Rooker or Miranda is in AAA? Or is one of them starting and one of them 4th OF?

if the latter you went $6.6m over budget.

im not sure how your job works, but in mine, I get in trouble when I go 2% over budget. I couldn’t imagine what would happen if I were to go 5% over budget!

[Brandon]

53 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

Are you going 3 man bench and one of Rooker or Miranda is in AAA? Or is one of them starting and one of them 4th OF?

if the latter you went $6.6m over budget.

im not sure how your job works, but in mine, I get in trouble when I go 2% over budget. I couldn’t imagine what would happen if I were to go 5% over budget!

I mention in my notes if I couldn't go over budget or if 130 million is a hard stop (we have been closer to 140 in recent seasons so I figured I was still within reason), then I would only sign 1 starter of Matz or Gray or one of several others.  That would take off 12 million or 14 million leaving me with 5 or 6 million to use on a reliever.  Gant or Dobnak or Jax would be the 5th starter in that instance.  with the amount of starters on the way from the minors, having someone who we can replace in the rotation is not a bad idea.  But if we are to be competitive for the division and we are using averageish starters, It is imperative we have 5 averageish starters in the rotation or that formula is hard to pull off.  

 

in the OF I put a platoon of Rooker and Miranda in LF.  so the other one is the 4th OF.