Is Jorge Polanco the Twins' Most Valuable Trade Asset?

[bean5302]

I just don't see your point as valid. In my opinion, Dozier and Polanco do not have similar values. Not only do I believe Dozier viewed very differently than Polanco is now, but there was a huge amount of difference in cost and control. Dozier came with some serious warning bells and not only other teams in MLB noticed, so did the Twins. Dozier was begging for an extension and the Twins wouldn't even talk with him. That's poor asset management by the front office as they provided other teams with reason to worry about Dozier.

Anyway, the Dodgers offered a top prospect (top 25-50 overall) for Dozier, Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted another top prospect as well. Ultimately, the Dodgers traded De Leon for another short term 2B, Logan Forsythe, who was being paid less than Dozier and performing nearly as well. The Twins undoubtedly could have gotten De Leon and another good prospect for Dozier, but they weren't going to get De Leon, and another top 100 or better. I suspect the Twins were asking for Calhoun or Buehler in addition. We don't know what other teams offered, but the Twins were absolutely demanding a haul. They didn't expect Dozier to decline as much as he did over the next two seasons.

[Wax off]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Moving him back to ss should be out of the question. Leave him at 2nd. Its obvious thats where he belongs

We have Arraez, Miranda, Martin, Gordon and Lewis, all who could play 2nd base. Only Lewis has SS potential, but Polanco might be better.

We don't have a SS, until that's solved it's has to be on the table. What's your solution?

 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I just don't see your point as valid. In my opinion, Dozier and Polanco do not have similar values. Not only do I believe Dozier viewed very differently than Polanco is now, but there was a huge amount of difference in cost and control. Dozier came with some serious warning bells and not only other teams in MLB noticed, so did the Twins. Dozier was begging for an extension and the Twins wouldn't even talk with him. That's poor asset management by the front office as they provided other teams with reason to worry about Dozier.

Anyway, the Dodgers offered a top prospect (top 25-50 overall) for Dozier, Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted another top prospect as well. Ultimately, the Dodgers traded De Leon for another short term 2B, Logan Forsythe, who was being paid less than Dozier and performing nearly as well. The Twins undoubtedly could have gotten De Leon and another good prospect for Dozier, but they weren't going to get De Leon, and another top 100 or better. I suspect the Twins were asking for Calhoun or Buehler in addition. We don't know what other teams offered, but the Twins were absolutely demanding a haul. They didn't expect Dozier to decline as much as he did over the next two seasons.

Forsythe playing  nearly as well as Dozier is like saying JA Happ pitched nearly as well as Riich Hill.

[TheLeviathan]

The answer is clearly yes.  However, that doesn't mean he should be shopped.  Polanco is an extremely valuable player and one the team can keep around for some time at a reasonable price.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, old nurse said:

Forsythe playing  nearly as well as Dozier is like saying JA Happ pitched nearly as well as Riich Hill.

Dozier vs. Forsythe

• 2015 - 2.8 bWAR / 3.1 fWAR vs. 4.6 bWAR / 4.1 fWAR
• 2016 - 5.8bWAR / 6.3 fWAR vs. 3.3 bWAR / 2.7 fWAR (127 games)

Forsythe looked like a 4 win second baseman. He wasn't valued as highly as Dozier since Dozier was viewed as about a 5 win second baseman as I recall. There wasn't some enormous chasm between the two in value perception. It was widely speculated Dozier just had a one off, career year. By the time 2017 was completed, Dozier was a short term asset.

 

[TopGunn#22]

Polanco is our MVP and very productive on a team friendly deal.  I'm keeping him.  I'm trading Arraez for pitching.

[Wax off]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'm trading Arraez for pitching.

I'm guessing he'd get us a decent relief pitcher with some team control at best. What do you expect we'd get for Arraez?

 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Dozier vs. Forsythe

• 2015 - 2.8 bWAR / 3.1 fWAR vs. 4.6 bWAR / 4.1 fWAR
• 2016 - 5.8bWAR / 6.3 fWAR vs. 3.3 bWAR / 2.7 fWAR (127 games)

Forsythe looked like a 4 win second baseman. He wasn't valued as highly as Dozier since Dozier was viewed as about a 5 win second baseman as I recall. There wasn't some enormous chasm between the two in value perception. It was widely speculated Dozier just had a one off, career year. By the time 2017 was completed, Dozier was a short term asset.

 

If you go out one more year you realize what a fluke 2015 was for Forsythe. The TD habit of only looking at the statistic that would “prove a point is still alive.

[TopGunn#22]

Oh, I think Arraez could get MUCH more than just a "decent" relief pitcher.  His Baseball Trade Value is 34.10. (Polanco is 45.0)  That could get the Twins either Sean Manaea (19.7) or Chris Bassitt (21.7) straight up from the A's with James Kapriellian (10.6) thrown in.  Arraez would be the A's starting 2B-man and leadoff hitter. I'd be happy with a deal like that.

Or, I'd aim high and trade Arraez 34.1 and Canterino 9.6  = 43.7 total for Frankie Montas 44.1.  The A's are going to be retooling this winter and a number of their players are going to be on the block.  Arraez gets them a team controlled starting 2B-man with bat skills.  So yeah, I'm shooting for STARTING pitchers with Arraez, not just a "decent' relief pitcher.  

[roger]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Oh, I think Arraez could get MUCH more than just a "decent" relief pitcher.  His Baseball Trade Value is 34.10. (Polanco is 45.0)  That could get the Twins either Sean Manaea (19.7) or Chris Bassitt (21.7) straight up from the A's with James Kapriellian (10.6) thrown in.  Arraez would be the A's starting 2B-man and leadoff hitter. I'd be happy with a deal like that.

Or, I'd aim high and trade Arraez 34.1 and Canterino 9.6  = 43.7 total for Frankie Montas 44.1.  The A's are going to be retooling this winter and a number of their players are going to be on the block.  Arraez gets them a team controlled starting 2B-man with bat skills.  So yeah, I'm shooting for STARTING pitchers with Arraez, not just a "decent' relief pitcher.  

Why would anyone consider trading Canterino right now?  He potentially could be the best of all the arms coming thru the system.  But he spent most of last year injured, and unlike TJ when you know what the recovery period will be, there isn't a clear answer of when/if Canterino will return at 100%.  So the Twins would be selling LOW, not something to do with the lottery ticket he could become.

[Wax off]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Oh, I think Arraez could get MUCH more than just a "decent" relief pitcher.  His Baseball Trade Value is 34.10. (Polanco is 45.0)  That could get the Twins either Sean Manaea (19.7) or Chris Bassitt (21.7) straight up from the A's with James Kapriellian (10.6) thrown in.  Arraez would be the A's starting 2B-man and leadoff hitter. I'd be happy with a deal like that.

Or, I'd aim high and trade Arraez 34.1 and Canterino 9.6  = 43.7 total for Frankie Montas 44.1.  The A's are going to be retooling this winter and a number of their players are going to be on the block.  Arraez gets them a team controlled starting 2B-man with bat skills.  So yeah, I'm shooting for STARTING pitchers with Arraez, not just a "decent' relief pitcher.  

Polanco has gotta be at double Arraez trade value at the very least. 5 to 10 times over, more like it. Throw those numbers out the window.

I'd love it if you were right and Arraez has way more trade value than I'd guess.

[WyoTwin]

On 10/20/2021 at 10:37 AM, bean5302 said:

I just don't see your point as valid. In my opinion, Dozier and Polanco do not have similar values. Not only do I believe Dozier viewed very differently than Polanco is now, but there was a huge amount of difference in cost and control. Dozier came with some serious warning bells and not only other teams in MLB noticed, so did the Twins. Dozier was begging for an extension and the Twins wouldn't even talk with him. That's poor asset management by the front office as they provided other teams with reason to worry about Dozier.

Anyway, the Dodgers offered a top prospect (top 25-50 overall) for Dozier, Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted another top prospect as well. Ultimately, the Dodgers traded De Leon for another short term 2B, Logan Forsythe, who was being paid less than Dozier and performing nearly as well. The Twins undoubtedly could have gotten De Leon and another good prospect for Dozier, but they weren't going to get De Leon, and another top 100 or better. I suspect the Twins were asking for Calhoun or Buehler in addition. We don't know what other teams offered, but the Twins were absolutely demanding a haul. They didn't expect Dozier to decline as much as he did over the next two seasons.

If we’re throwing out names that were former Twins, here’s one.

After the 1997 season, Knoblauch was traded to the Yankees in exchange for four players (including two future All-Stars, Eric Milton and Cristian Guzmán) and US$3 million. 

[joefish]

It would be easy to replace Jorge's glove. His bat is why he is an all star. His bat is what makes him valuable. 

[tony&rodney]

I'm not very open to considering a trade of Jorge Polanco. What specifically would anyone suggest as a trade?

Right now, Polanco has more value than any other player on the team, in my opinion. His bat, glove, wheels, consistency, style, contract - it all comes together to make Jorge the team MVP. It would take a total haul. 

[dxpavelka]

Why not?  He's the only guy on the team that played 2021 with any heart.  Can't have that.