Free Agents the Twins should target for 2022

[Andrew Mahlke]

It is no secret that the Twins had a disappointing 2021 season. We had our positives, like a great season from Jorge Polanco and we continued to see that when Byron Buxton is on the field he has the potential to be the best player in baseball. One place we really faltered last year was our free agent signings did not live up to expectations. From Matt Shoemaker and his -0.7 fWAR, an ERA over 8, and FIP over 6, to Andrelton Simmons and his -0.5 fWAR, 56 wRC+, and .558 OPS, and many in between, one place the Twins could really improve this year is in their free agent acquisitions. With between 45-60 million dollars in projected spending, the Twins could really get creative with their free agent signings. Here are 5 free agents that I think the Twins should try to acquire this offseason.

1. Heath Hembree, RP, NY Mets

At first glance, Heath Hembree had an extremely disappointing 2021 campaign. From a standard statistical viewpoint, he was 2-7 with a 5.59 ERA. Now, by only looking at these numbers you might think the Twins would be crazy to sign a 33 year old reliever with stats that bad. But taking a deeper dive into his numbers, you might be able to see why this is a cheap signing that could very well pay off.

Although Hembree had a 5.59 ERA last season, his expected ERA (xERA) was actually 3.12, which was in the 88th percentile of all MLB pitchers last season. If you are unfamiliar, xERA takes into account the quality of contact allowed by a pitcher (exit velocity and launch angle) rather than the results of what happened. Basically, it eliminates luck (weather, defenses, ballpark dimensions). It gives the pitcher credit for what he can control.

According to Baseball Savant, Hembree had the largest difference between his actual ERA and his expected ERA for any pitcher in the 2021 season (2.47). 

Another statistic that favors just how unlucky Hembree was this season is xwOBA. This is similar to xERA in that it shows how Hembree’s batted ball data including his walks allowed and strikeouts would usually play out, eliminating factors beyond his control. Hembree’s xwOBA was actually .035 lower than his actual wOBA, good enough for 9th in the MLB among qualifiers.

As strikeouts are becoming more and more common in the big leagues, it is important to have pitchers who can strike guys out at a high rate. This is something Hembree excelled at last year. Hembree struck out 34.2% of batters last year. A number this high puts him in the 96th percentile of all MLB pitchers, which is fantastic. His high strikeout rates can be attributed to his above average spin rates. Along with his fastball velocity being in the 79th percentile of all pitchers, his fastball spin rate is in the 92nd percentile, and his breaking-ball spin rate is in the 96th percentile. These are great predictors of future success for Hembree because although his bad luck may not continue, his high strikeout numbers and high spin rates should.

One thing Hembree could work on is limiting the number of walks he allows. Last year Hembree’s walk rate was 9.9%, which was only in the 28th percentile of all pitchers. If Hembree limits his walks and gets a little bit more luck on his side, he could be a key contributor to the Twins bullpen in 2022 at a very low price.

2. Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros

There are not many players more controversial than Carlos Correa. His handling of the 2017 Houston Astros cheating scandal rubbed a lot of people in the wrong direction. Many wondered if Correa’s red hot start to his career was only because of the cheating. The answer to that question can be put to rest. In 2021, Correa had the 9th highest fWAR (5.8) of all position players. Additionally he had a wRC+ of 134, meaning he was 34% above a league average hitter

Correa is one of the best players in the league when he is at his best. In 2021, he was in the 87th percentile of xWOBA, his hard hit rate was in the 63rd percentile at over 42%, and his walk rate was almost 12%, good enough to be in the 84th percentile.

In 2021, the Twins had one of the worst shortstops in the league in Simmons. Going from Simmons to Correa would be a massive upgrade at one of the premier positions in baseball. This past year, Correa was in the 97th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA). He was the 6th highest shortstop behind Nicky Lopez, Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed, Simmons, and Brandon Crawford. Yes, Simmons is ahead of Correa but Correa’s offense is so much better than Simmons’s that the difference defensively is almost negligible. 

Correa is also a machine in the playoffs. He is currently tied for the 7th most homers in playoff history with 18, and he is only 27 years old. Astros manager Dusty Baker has called Correa one of the best pressure players he has ever seen, and Baker has been in the MLB as a manager since 1993 and has managed the likes of Barry Bonds, Joey Votto, and Bryce Harper.

If we do sign Correa, the question arises: what happens to Austin Martin and Royce Lewis? Well, if we have enough money to sign Correa that means we most likely didn’t extend Buxton or we would’ve traded Donaldson to get rid of his contract to clear up money for Correa. That leaves an open spot at CF and 3B. Ideally, Lewis would play center and Martin would play third like he did in his college days at Vanderbilt. Lewis has also been taking reps in the outfield in the minor leagues. Again, this move only happens if we trade or don’t resign Buxton, which I think is a terrible idea given his sky high potential. 

Correa will likely command a lot of money in the free agent market, and is projected to get an expensive 10 year, $266.2 million dollar contract by Spotrac. This signing is unfortunately not likely, but the Twins could definitely make it happen if they were to unload salaries. If we don’t extend Byron Buxton, I would hope we pivot to making Correa a massive offer.

3. Chris Taylor, UTIL, LA Dodgers

If you have been paying attention to postseason baseball this year, you probably are familiar with Chris Taylor. Earlier this month, he hit a walk-off home run to send the Dodgers to the NLDS. He has been an integral part of the Los Angeles Dodgers success since being traded there from Seattle in 2016. Taylor is a utility man who can play all three outfield positions along with third base and middle infield. Having a player with that kind of versatility on your team can be vital to team success. It would allow us to give guys regular days off while shifting Taylor all around the diamond.

Taylor had a breakout 2017 campaign, when he had an .850 OPS and a 126 wRC+. Since then he has been around a 110 wRC+, still 10% better than league average. Taylor is also extremely fast, as he is in the 91st percentile of all players in sprint speed, as his average is 28.8 ft/sec (league average is 27). Another thing Taylor does extremely well is his plate discipline. In 2021 his walk rate was 10.8% and in the 73rd percentile. His chase rate was in the 92nd percentile, which means he rarely swings at bad pitches. The combination of Taylor having a high walk rate and low chase rate means that even when he is not hitting well at the plate he can still contribute offensively, getting on base 34% of the time and he will usually steal over 10 bases a season.

Chris Taylor will be a player who will be worth 2-3 WAR per season and does a lot of little things right that help his teams win games. He would not be a super expensive pick-up as Spotrac has him projected to be worth $11 million per year. This would be a great signing by the Twins and Taylor would be able to help us in all facets of the game

4. Ryan Tepera, RP, Chicago White Sox

Most recently, Ryan Tepera made headlines for saying the Astros are still doing ‘sketchy stuff’, to which Astros manager Dusty Baker responded saying he had never heard of Tepera before. Well, maybe Dusty should pay a little more attention because Tepera was quietly one of the best relievers in baseball in 2021.

Historically, when relief pitchers are evaluated, the first thing people check is how many saves they have. Between his time on the north side and south side of Chicago this season, Tepera only had one save to his name. A lot of this is due to the White Sox bullpen being absolutely loaded with big names such as Liam Hendriks and Craig Kimbrel. But if you take a deeper dive into the statistics, you will find that Tepera was the second best pitcher in an extremely deep White Sox bullpen.

Tepera had an ERA of 2.79, which is already considered elite. Even at this elite level, Tepera got unlucky. His xERA was 2.50 and his xwOBA was .248. These are both in the 96th percentile of all pitchers. Of relief pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched in 2021, there were only 6 with a lower xERA than Tepera.

Another thing Tepera excels at is getting swings and misses. His whiff rate was in the 96th percentile, and his K% was just over 30%, good enough to be in the 88th percentile of all pitchers. When I first looked at his pitch profile, his fastball velocity, spin rate, and his curveball spin rate are all about league average. So I wondered, what makes him so special?

Tepera has a very good slider, throwing it nearly 45% of the time in 2021, up from just over 5% in 2020. His whiff rate on his slider was nearly 51%, meaning that over half of the time batters would swing at it they would swing and miss. This is extremely good. Another thing that jumps out at me about Tepera’s slider is that since 2019, he is getting roughly 0.7 feet more of extension on his slider, and since then his xwOBA on that pitch has gone way down.

Once Tepera discovered he had an elite slider and began throwing it more, he turned into one of the most dominant relievers in the league. Obviously the Twins struggled with relief pitching this season and Tepera would be a huge upgrade to our bullpen. With his strong expected stats from 2021 and his newly revamped slider, Tepera would be very successful and a great signing for fairly cheap.

5. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Boston Red Sox

Among baseball fans, Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty well-known name. He has always been a fairly consistent middle of the rotation starter. This season, he had a below average ERA of 4.74, although his xERA showed that he was a bit unlucky. His xERA was 3.55, more than a difference of a full point. This is in the 73rd percentile of all qualified pitchers. With a bit more luck, he would be a solid 3 starter in a Twins rotation that badly needs a consistent starter. With Michael Pineda being a free agent and Kenta Maeda undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Twins are in dire need of starting pitchers.

If you look at Eduardo Rodriguez’s percentile rankings in 2021, he was above average in just about every relevant category. In fact, he was in the 90th percentile of average exit velocity allowed. This means that he rarely allows hard contact and that is a very important quality to have as a pitcher. He also had a K% of 27.4, which is in the 76th percentile of all pitchers. He does not walk a lot of batters, having a walk rate of 7%, good enough to be in the 70th percentile of all pitchers.

One reason Rodriguez is still not excellent despite his ability to miss barrels is because of his pitch arsenal. Below is his pitch arsenal by month in 2021.

As you can see, he threw his fastball almost 45% of the time and his most frequent off-speed pitch is his changeup. He has a good mix of pitches, throwing four different pitches more than 10% of the time. However, he could be even more effective if he threw his sinker more and his cutter less. In 2021, his cutter was his worst pitch, allowing a .301 BA and a .487 SLG on the pitch. However, he continued to throw it 18% of the time, or every fifth pitch. His sinker was way more effective, only allowing a BA of .264 and a SLG of .385. However, he only threw his sinker 11% of the time, or 60% as much as he threw his cutter. Rodriguez also has an extremely effective changeup. Against changeups, hitters had an xBA of .238 against it, with lefties hitting only .176 against the changeup. If the Twins could convince Rodriguez to throw more sinkers and changeups, and less cutters, he would be an outstanding signing.

Rodriguez would not be a super expensive signing, with plenty of starting pitchers also on the market such as big names Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander. A lot of teams may underlook an unlucky pitcher such as Rodriguez and that may allow the Twins to swoop in and sign him for less money than he is worth.

Conclusion

The Twins had a very disappointing 2021 season and they have a big offseason ahead of them. They have big decisions to make such as a potential Buxton extension, key arbitration decisions such as Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey, potential trades, and which free agents to bring in. If we look at a big name free agent such as Correa and then some undervalued pieces like Hembree, Taylor, Tepera, and Rodriguez we will be in a good spot to compete for the AL Central again in 2022.

[tony&rodney]

Well researched argument, realistic, and these players would all look good in a Twins uniform. Correa is likely too far a stretch but possible and we shall see what Falvey's plans are to reshape the roster.

[Steve71]

IMO, the chances of the Twins paying the market rate for Correa and that he would agree to come play in Minny are less than 1%.   Look for him on the Yankees or Phillies next year at a contract over $300M.

We need to be realistic here....

[Andrew Mahlke]

31 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

IMO, the chances of the Twins paying the market rate for Correa and that he would agree to come play in Minny are less than 1%.   Look for him on the Yankees or Phillies next year at a contract over $300M.

We need to be realistic here....

Agreed. More of wishful thinking with that one than anything. The main point was guys who would be very good for us and if we decide not to extend Buxton then we will have to have something else in mind with that money that we would've used to sign him, and Correa would be the guy I hope we go after.

[wavedog]

Like the list - in particular the pitchers and there are some different names to consider!  I agree if we go after a long-term shortstop Correa would be the one I would want - while also acknowledging the likelihood of this being extremely low or should I say non-existent. 

[Doctor Gast]

Like the work you put into this article. I like all of them, I agree that Correa is a stretch and I believe Eduardo Rodriguez will not be cheap. Rodriguez still has the name, he made it to the ALCS and the market for quality pitching is low, IMO. I believe the Astros are still sketchy too. Meaning although they quit banging on the trash cans doen't mean they've quit the other stuff. I still believe  players should be scanned for electronic devices.

[mike8791]

Nice analysis.  Here in Chicago, we know how good Tepera is.  He would be a solid add to a shaky bullpen.  Not sure he could serve as a closer but he was very effective with both Chicago teams in late inning situations.  Would definitely prefer him to Duffey with men on base.  And Hembree seems like a good under the radar signing to add experienced depth to a very average bullpen.

While Correa is definitely the premier FA SS, other teams with deeper pockets will surely outbid a Twins team in dire need of top-of-the-rotation arms.  If the Twins are going to be competitive in 2022 they must reserve enough to pick up a FA like Rodon, Ray, Stroman, or Gausman.  This will be a $25MM/yr investment but rather commit that amount to one of these guys than Correa.  Rodriguez doesn't look much better than Pineda as a #3 and would be more expensive.   We have enough excess trade pieces(Arraez, Jeffers/Garver, and a couple of top 10 prospects to acquire a #2 starter with high upside.  If we trade some of our "excess" talent and don't think Lewis or Martin or Miranda is ready to contribute than yes, Taylor would be a nice add,  A good field second tier SS could also be added to round out a pretty good offseason.  It only takes money and brains - two items that have been sorely lacking in an org. with 18 straighgt playoff losses.

[Vanimal46]

I am all in on this SS class. Go big and get one of Correa, Seager, Story, or Baez. I don’t see a reason to continue hoping Lewis MIGHT become the long term solution when there are elite options who CAN be the long term solution at SS. If Lewis progresses and becomes MLB ready, great! We will find a place for him somewhere. Potentially as the super utility guy to start his career. 

[lecroy24fan]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I am all in on this SS class. Go big and get one of Correa, Seager, Story, or Baez. I don’t see a reason to continue hoping Lewis MIGHT become the long term solution when there are elite options who CAN be the long term solution at SS. If Lewis progresses and becomes MLB ready, great! We will find a place for him somewhere. Potentially as the super utility guy to start his career. 

 Marcus Semien should me mentioned as well. 

 

One thing I would consider, if they are intent on Lewis or Martin being the long term answer, is waiting it out until 2 or three of the SS sign, then get a one or two year deal with one of the others left.

[RonCoomersOPS]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I am all in on this SS class. Go big and get one of Correa, Seager, Story, or Baez. I don’t see a reason to continue hoping Lewis MIGHT become the long term solution when there are elite options who CAN be the long term solution at SS. If Lewis progresses and becomes MLB ready, great! We will find a place for him somewhere. Potentially as the super utility guy to start his career. 

I would personally rather re-sign JA Happ and make him the starting SS than hand Trevor Story a big contract. Story's home/away splits have been, uh, less than impressive for pretty much his entire career. Correa, Seager, or Baez might be really nice adds, but I don't think any of them are going to fit our pay structure very well and I think they'd all guarantee that Buxton is leaving.

Personally, I like Taylor as the "get me over" shortstop for next year with one of Martin or Lewis getting plugged in as the long-term solution hopefully by the halfway point next year.

[Nashvilletwin]

Great post.

Except for Correa, all could be good additions. 
 

With our young rotation next year, having an elite pen is critical. Both relievers would slot right in and make us pretty much elite, even without
TR back at full strength. 
 

Chris Taylor on a $2x10 would be ideal. Play him at SS in 2022. If Lewis shows up in 2023, he still is more than useful in our lineup at a corner OF or super utility position in 2023. 
 

Rodriguez is a bit like Big Mike - take you pick, probably room for both. 
 

We could probably get all four for a little more than the price of JD - so trade Josh. Then move Kepler and use those savings plus Cruz’s savings to resign Buxton. Resign Big Mike to a similar deal to what he just finished.

Starters: 1B AK, 2B JP, 3B JM, SS Taylor, LF LA, CF BB, RF TL, C MG, DH MS.

Bench: RJ, BRortvedt, NG, BRooker, GC (some combo of these active) 

Starters: Rodriguez, MP, BO, JR, plus one of Grant, Dobnak, and Jax (others are depth).

Relievers: JA, TD, TR, CT, JM, DC, Hembree, and Tepera.

With that elite pen, this lineup would a) be competitive in 2022, b) not cost too much more than current levels, and c) set the team up for solid growth and a more open window in 2023-4.  

 

 

 

 

[D.C Twins]

Well thought out and well reasoned post. Have similar concerns as those expressed by others, but... more importantly....

Well done!

[RedneckRay]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

1B AK, 2B JP, 3B JM, SS Taylor, LF LA, CF BB, RF TL, C MG, DH MS.

Who is LA? Answers probably obvious

[Andrew Mahlke]

48 minutes ago, RedneckRay said:

Who is LA? Answers probably obvious

Arraez I assume

[RedneckRay]

6 hours ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

Arraez I assume

Of course? I love him but I don’t know if I love him as our opening day LF

[Nashvilletwin]

27 minutes ago, RedneckRay said:

Of course? I love him but I don’t know if I love him as our opening day LF

I get it 100%, but in this lineup, he’s not our every day 2B, SS, or 3B. Unless he’s moved, he should play and that would be the best spot. The proposed lineup though does afford good positional flexibility so he clearly could get at bats at different positions throughout the year. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 10/19/2021 at 2:09 PM, Vanimal46 said:

I am all in on this SS class. Go big and get one of Correa, Seager, Story, or Baez. I don’t see a reason to continue hoping Lewis MIGHT become the long term solution when there are elite options who CAN be the long term solution at SS. If Lewis progresses and becomes MLB ready, great! We will find a place for him somewhere. Potentially as the super utility guy to start his career. 

While all of the premier FA SS available would require a significant long term contract, the odds that any of them stick at short for 3-5 years are slim. Injuries and age catch up with all of us. Signing Correa does not necessitate moving Lewis off SS forever.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

While all of the premier FA SS available would require a significant long term contract, the odds that any of them stick at short for 3-5 years are slim. Injuries and age catch up with all of us. Signing Correa does not necessitate moving Lewis off SS forever.

If Lewis leaves SS for 3 years, he's not going back. No way.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

If Lewis leaves SS for 3 years, he's not going back. No way.

Lewis played 33 games at AA in 2019. 2022 he’s in AA all year, might get a sept call up, maybe

2023 he might be in the big league mix out of St, but will most likely at least start the season in the minors.

Lewis can be full time SS for a while…

[PseudoSABR]

This is a thoughtful post, and careful effort.  Appreciated.

That said, it also is gunning for market inefficiencies, and part of last season's failure, was the Twins FO and coaching counting too much on maximizing underperforming pitchers.  They can't be so arrogant again, and believe they can coach up what myth analytics may belie.  I'd prefer them to focus so much more on known quantities/qualities, even if it means paying for (or over paying).  

They have lots of money to spend. I don't want any more of the core free agents signing being the wishful thinking of the bargain bin.