6 Questions that Will Determine the Twins' Offseason Course

[mike8791]

Nick, nice summary as usual!!  To put some meat on the bones, would suggest we need answers to 3 critical questions:

1.  What dollars are available to spend this offseason?  Glee-man in The Athletic laid out a scenario where the amount ranges from $45-60MM, depending on whether budget is $125MM or $140MM(which he posits as likely upper limit).

2.  Is ownership really committed to contending again in 2022?  If taken at face value, budget had better be in $140-160MM range to come close to this goal.

3.  What is FO position on Buxton - resign, trade or status quo?  Can anyone logically argue that Buxton is  not the key piece to rebounding in 2022?  If resigned, likely that Gleeman's $8MM amount for Buxton is far too low.  As most on this post have noted, Bux's incentives likely to push his 2022 salary to $20MM + if resigned.

So let's assume available dollars are in $50MM range.  Now let's review your 6 key questions, keeping in mind that the FO's sole goal this offseason is have a contending team next year:

1.  Lewis is a big unknown.  Not only because he's missed 2 straight years, but because his ability to handle SS is questionnable, at least from most scouting reports available.  This leaves Twins uncertain at this critical position, so FA would seem the way to go, but if the Twins play their usual waiting game, chances are they will not be able to fill this position long term; instead, a second level, but good fielding SS who can stay for 2-3 years is much more likely. There simply is no one in Twins farm system that appears anywhere near ready.  As Nick points out, this second tier is a big dropoff from first, but offense should withstand an average batter, good fielder at this critical position if current offensive keys like Donaldson, Sano, Bux, Polanco and Garver remain.

2. Pretty obvious that Twins need to add three top rotation pitchers in offseason.  Pineda would seem logical as a #3.  The top two spots can be filled by FA and trade.  They should shoot high for a stud.  Ray, Rodon, Stroman - appear best bets if they do not get QO.  Guys like Thor or Gausman have more injury risk, hence lower cost.  In either case, for the FO to be successful in acquiring a front end arm, they would have to strike fast at onset of FA instead of waiting around the edge of the pool to see who is left.  Figure $20-25MM alone.  The #2 arm should be a fast developing, young established major leaguer like Lopez or Alcantara.  Such an arm would require an overpay, but Twins have excess in the catching dept.(Jeffers), in mid IF(Arraez, Martin or even Lewis)) or OF(Kepler) plus some good young pitching prospects not named Ryan or Ober.  I would not hesitate to include a Balozavic, Duran, Strotman or Woods-Richardson if one was needed to clinch a deal(I would not give up Winder or Canterino who look like the highest ceiling pitching prospects now).

3.  Yes, Rogers should remain as a key cog in pen, but his inability to keep inherited runners from scoring should preclude him being the closer.  The FO obviously felt the same way, hence signing and starting Colome as the closer.  So addition of one shut down closer seems a necessary add for a contender.  Sure, a guy like Alcala could move into that position eventually but do you base your pen's success on a guy whose HR rate is almost 2 per 9 inn?  Kimbrel at $15MM might become available; if not, there's a second tier incl. Melancon, Iglesias, and Jansen, who should slot in nicely as a closer-type.

4.  The rest of the pen showed improvment, albeit in the later part of 2021 when the team was far out of contention.  But guys like Duffey, Alcala, and Thielbar look solid enough, along with some newer arms like Moran, Coulombe and perhaps Duran to reduce number of needed outside additions.  Still, I would bring in one or two low cost FAs to build much-needed depth.  In any case, other than a closer, the pen should not take more than $5MM to upgrade.

5. The DH should be a rotational position, filled by position players as Donaldson, Sano, and Garver who need occasional days off.  The hope is Miranda, Kirillof, and a FA catcher would be competent fill-ins for these guys.

6.  We've already talked about Buxton.  If he is unsigned or traded, all ownership/FO credibility on contention in next couple years is a pipe dream.  That's how important Buxton is to near term success of Twins.

Looks like a $150MM budget, bolstered by a couple of shrewd trades could vault us back into the discussion.  Building a championship team will take longer because its formation is largely dependent on successful development of prospects into major league contributors.  And a few lucky breaks along the way wouldn't hurt!!

[Greglw3]

9 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

#1 really won't be the first thing addressed and because the Twins won't address it immediately that might take them out of an All Star SS caliber player.  The fallback options like Chris Taylor, Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis could work (Taylor, may cost more than the twins are willing to give).  Paul DeJong could be a trade option (Sosa has beaten him out).  Gavin Lux might be available if the Dodgers bring Seager back for SS and Trea Turner plays 2B.  Not sure if the Dodgers would use Lux as a "super utility" guy (it's a similar situation as Lewis, is a former #1 prospect supposed to end up a utility player ??).

#2  In my opinion, Verlander and Thor pose too great a risk.  I'd rather focus on Robby Ray, Danny Duffy, Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez..  The Twins should certainly look to bring Pineda back at a reasonable salary.  But with Berrios gone, they should invest the money they should have with Berrios into a new #1.  You can never have too much pitching.  Some of our prospect pipeline guys will work out.  Some, surely won't. I want to see the Twins sign a #1 and then trade for young pitching with the Marlins and/or A's.  With all the YOUNG pitchers the Twins have, they will all be on innings limits.  The Twins need to fill the #1, #2 and #3 holes in the rotation at a minimum.  If the moves they make work out, and some of the young pitching not named Ryan or Ober make it up to the big league roster next year, the Twins have an opportunity to trade some of that young pitching as it would become an area of strength and depth.  Pitching ALWAYS gives you leverage when trading. 

# & #4  I trust Taylor Rogers to come back.  But I'd listen on trade possibilities.  If I was considering trading Rogers, I'd look long and hard at what it might take to acquire Josh Hader from the Brewers.  The Brew Crew needs offense.  Hader is still ELITE, but the Brewers have internal options.  The Twins NEED a true closer.  But they have the makings of a pretty solid bullpen. 

#5.  I loved Nellie Cruz.  His time here was productive and he's a great influence.  Unfortunately, roster construction by our current FO has not been good.  With Sano, Garver, Donaldson and a few others, they have adequate bats to fill the spot.  It just seems to make more sense to rotate guys through than to invest in a guy like Nellie (even at a reduced cost).  The money the Twins FO has to play with this off season needs to be invested in Starting Pitching, a SS and a Closer.  

I like your thinking, especially on the starting rotation. We couldn’t be more in sync about that. Duffy and Ray would be a fantastic get and could be #1 and #2 and Pineda #3.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Great post. The real problem is that the pitching and lineup are not in sync on the development curve. The lineup is close to being ready to compete and might be if Buxton plays 140 games. The pitching, both ends but particularly the rotation, is not. By the time the presently in house pitching is ready (if ever, always a crapshoot), the lineup will be too old or too expensive. So, which way do we go?

I say we compete, mostly because I think we have enough on the farm to make a decent trade or two. On the 6 questions:

(1) Lewis or Palacios may be the  long term solution so this next year we sign a stop gap. Freddy Galvis or Iglesias make sense. Save the $$$ for pitching. 

(2) 2 new starters at a minimum, 3 if re-signing Pineda counts as "new". Sign one premium free agent like Stroman, Rondon or Jon Gray to a 3-5 year deal. Stay away from older types like Verlander or Greinke.  Stay far, far away from not quite there types like Alex Cobb or Danny Duffy. That spot goes to Pineda. Trade for one more starter - Alcantara or Rogers from Miami, Zach Gallen, someone like that and don't be afraid to part with real non-pitching assets like Martin or Miranda in combo with Kepler or Sano to get a good, young controllable starter.  Re-sign Pineda. Rotation goes Stroman, Alcantara, Pineda, Ober, Ryan. Don't worry about the other prospects getting an MLB chance in 2022; there will be plenty of IL time, etc. available for the others like Balazovic, Winder, Strotman, etc. to get a chance to show what they can do at the MLB level.

(3) Go to arbitration with Rogers and pay him. If he appears healthy try to negotiate a 2-3 year deal by the AS break and if you can't, keep him if you're in contention, trade him if you aren't. If he isn't able to go physically, eat the arb salary with a smile - it was worth the shot.  

(4) Don't play reliever roulette - keep the 6 guys mentioned, use guys like Jax or a FA to fill out the pen.  Keep Colome but only if Rocco promises he'll use a "closer by situation" approach, not a "Colome every time" approach. 

(5) The DH is for rotation. Donaldson plays 50/50 DH and 3B, same for Arraez. When one sits, 4th Of (Celestino), or backup IF like Gordon or Miranda DHs. Do NOT sign a full time DH unless you trade Donaldson. You can't have both.  

(6) SIGN BUXTON. He is one of the 2 keys to contention along with the rotation. Almost as importantly, signing him shows the team and the fan base that you're serious about winning. Will we need to over pay/take risk?  Yup. He's worth it. The twins cannot win consistently, or even every now and then, without taking significant risk. He is worth that risk.  

[bean5302]

I've seen Syndergaard mentioned a couple times in here. I don't see it happening. Syndergaard has made it clear as day he wants to stay with the Mets and indicates he'd accept a QO if one is made. Even though he was instructed not to throw breaking balls, throwing any pitches at the MLB level this year should have made an impact on how other teams view Thor at this point. The Mets are undoubtedly gauging his value on the open market, and Syndergaard is likely looking at 1 year contracts at this point. Could the Mets outbid all the competition for 1 year of Syndergaard if they fail to make him a QO? Sure. How much would they save? My guess is less than $3MM. Some team is at least going to give Syndergaard 1 year and $15MM meaning the dice roll when Stroman is already likely to leave would be a sign of incompetence in my opinion. Still, it's the Mets and such a move would be par for the course.

When it comes to Verlander, the Astros owner is on record saying they'll probably make a QO to Verlander, but Verlander is looking for a contract of "considerable length." I'd think Verlander would decline the QO. Even on the open market, I'd think the worst Verlander would possibly do is 1 year $15MM so I'd think there's virtually no risk him in declining. I think he'll be available, but I also think he's going to be picky about where he signs. He'll want to be with a contender and the Twins finished dead last in what is shaping up to be a much tougher division going forward. For the Twins to even entertain signing Verlander, they'll need to prove they're in it to win it and that seems like a long-shot.

[mk]

I wish they could cash in all those years they spent under the projected payroll. 
 

I hate the idea that letting play it out is the least likely scenario for Buxton. Trades can work, but only if you deal from strength, not like what happened with Yohan. Every other team knew the Twins were trading him no matter what, but the prospects they got back were garbage and they would have been far better off with one more year of Santana and then any draft pick compensation.

 

Maybe it depends on if what kind of changes comes in the  new CBA.

[tony&rodney]

Dear Nick,

Earlier, I began a post a post as "Nice Nash" Sorry and oops, but you did get a ton of people going. 

What do the Twins have in mind? We have been disappointed by how conservative the Pohlads have run the team but it is possible that something will change. There is a ton of pent up energy for good entertainment because of the unfortunate Covid-19 debacle of the past two years. 2022 is a key year going forward, for the Twins and many businesses. People like to get out with friends, neighbors, and family and the Twins could draw really well with a fun team.

Nice Nick!

[cHawk]

21 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

0% chance Buxton signs and extension. If an extension were to have happened it would have only made sense from his side 1-2 years ago.

0% chance of filling all of the holes in the starting rotation AND the bullpen.

Poor chance of being meaningfully competitive next year..

SO.....

Trade Buxton for great prospects. Call up Celelstino and let him learn on the job. Go with the kids in the starting rotation and see what we have in 2022 before signing FA in 2023. Ditto for our internal bullpen arms.

Trade Donaldson for the best salary relief/prospect package available and let Miranda join Celestino. Let Sano try to be relevant one more time (nobody will trade anything for him anyway). Trade Garver (on borrowed time as 30 y/o catcher) and let Jeffers/Ro combo learn. Trade Kepler if there is a good offer (which there won't be so he stays). Sign one of the top 5 shortstops (good defense behind young pitchers while transitioning team into contenders....Also, Lewis is waaaaay far away and may never make it)

2022 for internal scouting and development.....2023 add what you learn that you need through FA/trades after 2022 information gathering.

Regular season competitive with 1st round defeat in 2023 developing into playoff competitive in 2024 with potential for deep playoff run...

That is the most realistic scenario to me.

You’re entitled to your own opinion. That being said, I disagree.

It seems lazy to simply say, “If he were going to, he would’ve.” I don’t think it’s fair at all to say that there’s a 0% chance Buxton signs an extension here. Has he indicated he wants out? I haven’t heard anything. Why the FO waited so long to extend him isn’t hard to figure out. He has had one (1) season where he’s played 100+ games. Staying on the field has been a continuous problem for him. It’s so inconsistent that it would IMO be a bad decision to hastily hand him a 5 year/$125M deal. It’s incredibly risky. I wouldn’t advise it.

Also, 0% chance of filling the holes in the pitching staff? Why? Why can’t they sign the bullpen arms and starters they need? Their pitching pipeline will also starting producing more next year (hopefully). This sounds more like an, “I don’t trust the FO to fill the holes,” rather than an, “I don’t think it’s physically possible for them to fill the holes.”

[MN_ExPat]

22 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Yesssirrr..... That is literally the purpose of the comment section...

Or...perhaps better stated for you...

it is my opinion that this is an opinion section for peoples opinions on other peoples opinions of sometimes of their opinions but other times just new opinions 

[DocBauer]

A great OP Nick! Just tremendous! And dead on!

1] IMO, Lewis is, right now, still a SS. And he should be. The talent and ability is there to be AT LEAST a decent SS with a potentially big bat and offensive versatility. Despite lost time you can't ignore talent and potential. He just needs to PLAY! You HAVE to play 2 games at this position as the FO. You have to examine what you intend to do in 2022 as a team while also looking at the future. It's a delicate and difficult balance. The Twins have pitching as their #1 need. Period. But despite a massive amount of $ to spend this offseason there is still a finite number to keep the Twins where they have been, which is $140M to a max of $150M, which is the mean the past few years, roughly. (And the FO has basically stated they expect to spend around what they've spent the last 3yrs). Barring a trade for someone, Taylor, Iglesias, and Galvis are all potentially fine short term SS options for now.  They may not be as good defensively as Simmons, but they all could not only be better offensively, but maybe just be a better "fit" for the team. That's not a personal knock on Simmons, but roster construction is more than just numbers.

2] Building a rotation is probably the biggest key to 2022. We can, and will discuss the staff in length going forward. But IF the FO is serious about contending...and they should be considering the overall talent on hand...someone needs to lead the rotation, The good news is the FA depth this year is deep and interesting. I am going to continue to bang the drum that Stoman makes the most sense. He's been tied to the Twins for a few years now. He's, more or less, a Berrios clone. (I said more or less). I believe the $12M he earned in 2021 is his highest earning season. I think he's about as safe a signing as you could make at $18-20M per, maybe even with an out clause. Ray and Gray have as much ability, and might prove to be even better signings. I'm not sure I trust Rodon, but he is intriguing, I think Gausman wants to stay where he is. The Twins need someone 29-31yo who has the ability to front the rotation on a 3-5yr deal without making anyone nervous about blowing up. Hence the guys I've mentioned.

Pineda, to me, as I've stated before is almost a done deal as the #3 guy, unless his $8M could be spent on someone they actually like better.

The key is the #2 spot. That spot could EASILY be a 1yr flier make good deal to sort of go "all in" for 2022. Or, a sort of "WTH", let's take a shot, in other words. But I think the #2  spot is 50/50 a trade with a couple years left, think Odorizzi and Maeda, or a 1yr prove it like Bundy for example.

There IS a pipeline coming! It's tantalizing close! And I really don't want to trade from it because I see a couple quality MLB SP and quality RP options, but SOMEONE has to front the rotation for the next year or two.

3] Rogers is an absolute keep and important part of 2022, and maybe beyond. And his cost is marginal, But only he and the Twins know how he's looking right now. Without him, it changes a lot of their off-season approach. 

4] The pen arms on hand, even with an expected healthy Rogers, is a HUGE issue question. Duffey slipped then made changes, and was great again. He's is. So are Thielbar and Alcala. I would not be shocked or ticked off if Colome was brought back considering his career and his 2021 season from June on. But like Simmons at SS, sometimes the mix just doesn't work. I don't know who at this time to replace him, but I think you need to just move on and spend the $ on someone else. I'm OK with protecting Minaya, who performed well and has a decent history. Coulombe I'm not so sure about as be did well, and has an OK history, but what about Smeltzer,Thorpe and Moran? Moran will be protected. The rest are questionable. I'm seeing a couple milb signjngs and we'll see what happens. I'd probably protect Minaya and let everyone go and see who I can re-sign.

I think FA, milb deals, and a couple young arms like Jax  converting, could fill the front end of the pen. The guy that perplexes me is Gant. He is an experienced, veteran arm with OK results across the board as a solid RP and so-so SP. In no way is he worth a projected $3.7M in arbitration. He could be very valuable as a middle relief guy who can slide in to the rotation in an emergency, but NOT for that price. I'd offer $2.5-2.7 and let him go if he balks. Stashak is the guy that just kills me. He's looked so good in SSS that I don't want to lose him. But the 40 man is going to be so scrunched that I'm not sure you can protect him.

Rogers healthy, bring in ONE ARM for around $5-6M and I'm happy trusting what we have, prospects, and milb signings.

5] The DH? Let's just address the elephant in the room. It would be AWESOME to have Cruz back as our DH and a leader, etc, etc. If not him, it sure would be nice to have a BIG bat you could write in pen daily to torment the opposition. But on a practical note, how many teams have that? And we all pretty much assume the NL will have the DH in 2022. Not only will we have to fight 29 other teams, potentially, for his services, but his age just can't be discounted. Furthermore, unless the Twins trade off at least one if not two players from what we expect to be their "regular" roster, where is there room for a full time DH?

Right now, today, no trades made, the roster needs room for Sano, Donaldson, Garver, Arraez, AK and even Larnach...who may or may not break camp with the Twins...and Miranda to be in the lineup daily. Even IF one of those guys are traded, there remains a daily crunch to play everyone and get them in the lineup. Unless there are massive injury issues, or a couple guys just stink initially, the DH should be spread out between the roster we have. As the roster stands now, the primary DH should be handled by a mix of Donaldson, Garver and Arraez with a few half days off for others. DH is NOT a problem.

6] Buxton is both complicated and easy. He wants to stay. The extension was reportedly NOT A PROBLEM in regard to guaranteed salary. The hangup was the incentives. Well hell, if he's healthy enough to play 120-140 games, you'd think the FO would be ECSTATIC to pay for his availability and the numbers he would probably produce. Further, he'd put butts in the seats. At WORST, he provides tremendous value when on the field vs his guaranteed money. At best, he is a potential MVP candidate who leads your team to a possible WS. You can even toss in an opt out clause if you are truly worried about future earnings. But what ownership, even if you want to keep beating the same old worn out drum about the Pohlads, wouldn't be willing to pay incentives to a difference maker who could be a face of the franchise and POSSIBLE MVP player?

Get this done! 

 

 

 

[D.C Twins]

On 10/18/2021 at 9:24 PM, cHawk said:

You’re entitled to your own opinion. That being said, I disagree.

It seems lazy to simply say, “If he were going to, he would’ve.” I don’t think it’s fair at all to say that there’s a 0% chance Buxton signs an extension here. Has he indicated he wants out? I haven’t heard anything. Why the FO waited so long to extend him isn’t hard to figure out. He has had one (1) season where he’s played 100+ games. Staying on the field has been a continuous problem for him. It’s so inconsistent that it would IMO be a bad decision to hastily hand him a 5 year/$125M deal. It’s incredibly risky. I wouldn’t advise it.

Also, 0% chance of filling the holes in the pitching staff? Why? Why can’t they sign the bullpen arms and starters they need? Their pitching pipeline will also starting producing more next year (hopefully). This sounds more like an, “I don’t trust the FO to fill the holes,” rather than an, “I don’t think it’s physically possible for them to fill the holes.”

It is totally fair for the FO and yourself to not be on board with signing Buck to a 5/125 extension due to obvious risks based on his history. It is totally fair to want to wait for more information.

BUT... waiting also comes with a cost. When you try to extend someone only 1 year out from free agency, you have to almost match the ceiling of what Buck and his agent think they can get on the open market (with the likes of NY, Boston, LA, Angels, Chicago Cubs etc bidding). Players are more willing to take less money multiple years out from FA as a way to share injury risk with the club. Not-so-much 1 year out.

I want to sign Buck....Total transcendent player....I just don't think the Twins will come anywhere near the price at this point. I desperately hope that I'm wrong!

If a TD writer is interested in a great article idea.... research the history of players who signed extensions 1 year or less away from FA (with a focus on high level talent). That would be super interesting and may even disprove my position!

[D.C Twins]

Point #2 from the above post.

I do believe it is tremendously difficult to fill 4 SP spots! Realistically if you want a legit contender, one of Ober or Ryan should be penciled in for #5 with the rest going to more sure things. I am high on both Ober and Ryan, but it would be a mistake to assume that they will both seamlessly become reliable starters next year (if so, GREAT... you have better depth for inevitable injuries)

The bullpen, same problem. Some flashes of promise toward the end of the year, but if you depend on too many flashes of promise, you will inevitably be disappointed. Ergo... lots of proven bullpen experience would need to be added...IF we going to be honest contenders.

These additions would far outstrip our anticipated budget (but trades could happen at the expense of the future for a questionable 2022 run)

So yes, I do believe the pitching holes are too many to fill in one year. Again , I desperately hope that I'm wrong!

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

These additions would far outstrip our anticipated budget (but trades could happen at the expense of the future for a questionable 2022 run)

So yes, I do believe the pitching holes are too many to fill in one year. Again , I desperately hope that I'm wrong!

What if the players received in trade have multiple years of control left and can perhaps be signed to 4-5 year contracts? The Twins have a glut of corner players, some enticing minor league pitchers, and could make some good trades. When I look, optimistically, at the Twins pitching prospects I also need to recall how many pitchers the team has developed and conclude that a couple or three trades for pitchers is a good idea and possible. 

[Major League Ready]

53 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

What if the players received in trade have multiple years of control left and can perhaps be signed to 4-5 year contracts? The Twins have a glut of corner players, some enticing minor league pitchers, and could make some good trades. When I look, optimistically, at the Twins pitching prospects I also need to recall how many pitchers the team has developed and conclude that a couple or three trades for pitchers is a good idea and possible. 

Like Snell and Darvish?  By any objective view, reconstructing the Twins roster in one off-season to the point of realistic contention is highly unlikely.  As DC Twin noted, absolutely everything would have to go right.  While that is always possible, we should consider the cost / downside of following a San Diego type strategy.  Would the team be better off in 2023 and going forward if they focused on developing pitching internally which means playing those prospects at the major league level?  Would we be better off in 2023 if we trade Donaldson now and bring up Miranda?  Could there be benefit in doing a Peralta with Alcala and trying him in the pen?  Would we be better off trying Jax and others in the BP?

What is the cost?  The Padres sent the Rays a SP with a higher FV than any pitching prospect we have in our system and he is already graduated to the major league level.  They also got another pitcher roughly equivalent to Enlow or Winder plus a catcher with a 50FV value.  They also got Franciso Mejia who had 4 years of team control.  The guys they sent to Darvish were most 19 year olds but they got a very good corner OF prospect and a CFer that had good years last year and a SS with potential too.

The Padres gave up a ton.  Darvish was really bad the 2nd half and he is going into his age 35 season.  They have $37M on the books for him the next 2 years.  My bet is they could have done better in free agency for the next 2 years and gave up nothing.  Snell produced 2.1 fWAR and 1.4 bWAR.  His salary is reasonable $29.7M for the next two years but again, they probably could have gotten Snell’s production in free agency and gave up nothing.

Why do we insist our FO pay this type of premium for a longshot in 2022?  They are not going to push their chips in betting on 2022 and we should not be disappointed if they take a year to retool.  The cost could very well be mediocrity or worse for several years.  Can anyone cite an example of a team that added 3 highly productive outside SPs in one off-season, especially a team with below average revenue, where that team went on to contend?
 

[USAFChief]

43 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They are not going to push their chips in betting on 2022 and we should not be disappointed if they take a year to retool.  The cost could very well be mediocrity or worse for several years.  

 

As opposed to the guaranteed mediocrity or worse over the next several years you're advocating?

 

Give me the San Diego model, please.

[Major League Ready]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

As opposed to the guaranteed mediocrity or worse over the next several years you're advocating?

 

Give me the San Diego model, please.

It is virtually assured you and I will disagree.  You absolutely ignored the questions I posed regarding the impact of these decisions in 2023 and beyond.  So, try answering those questions before you conclude (without consideration) that taking a a year to invest in retooling the team will result in mediocrity.  San Diego built a team with a bright future through the draft as a result of being bad from 2011-2019.  They had five 90 loss seasons and four 90 loss seasons in in a row from 2016-2019.

Don't stop to actually consider the facts (that San Diego gave up a lot) and are now positioned worse than they when these trades were made.  Assume the impossible should be done.  It is hard to ignore the result of the questions I posed would result in a better team in 2023.  This type of fanatical "it has to be done right now" approach is just fine for fans.  Ignoring the questions I posed gets you fired as a GM or anywhere else in the real world.  So, just keep assuming the team never follows the strategy you think should be implemented because they are incompetent just like so many did when the Rays traded Snell.

[tony&rodney]

Well, we have no idea what another team looks for in a potential trade with the Twins, but there could be opportunities. I accept reality but do wonder if something along Garver or Jeffers, Larnach, Celestino, Sands, and a lower minor league prospect for Alcantara and Meyer would be acceptable. The initial thought is that the Marlins would never trade either pitcher but perhaps an overpay could work. Oakland has three starters worth looking at and Arraez, Rooker, plus two or three others might return one of these guys. Both Twins pitching prospects ready for the major leagues did ok this year and we hope one of them pans out next year. I would not bet on Ryan, but Ober looks decent. Throwing the other prospects out before they are ready will be difficult. 

To be real, the Twins will have to break the roster down if they cannot sign Buxton and choose to keep the budget well below $120 million and then the minor leaguers might as well play. Additionally, it is not really reasonable to expect the Twins to go above a budget of $150 million. The decision on budget directly affects the roster construction and the direction of the team for next year and thereafter.

Would everything have to right for the Twins to win next year? Yes. That was true, really, in every season in which the Twins have won and it is true for any other team that wins for that matter. Baseball is very competitive and the teams still playing this year are all very good. Tampa Bay and San Francisco had terrific seasons and are done for the year. 

I think a $130-150 million budget could bring a decent competitive team to Target Field next year. A few trades and a few free agents and a more athletic team would be nice. I'm not thinking that rolling with rookies will necessarily make the Twins better in 2023. 

Lastly, I understand how people look to San Diego as an example of the woes of going too fast but we don't have to worry about Pohlad using a budget of $170+ million, nor do we have similar prospects to throw away or such a mess with management.  The Twins move at a slower pace. I'm thinking positively about the future of the Twins.

[dex8425]

On 10/18/2021 at 4:52 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Great post. The real problem is that the pitching and lineup are not in sync on the development curve. The lineup is close to being ready to compete and might be if Buxton plays 140 games. The pitching, both ends but particularly the rotation, is not. By the time the presently in house pitching is ready (if ever, always a crapshoot), the lineup will be too old or too expensive. So, which way do we go?

I say we compete, mostly because I think we have enough on the farm to make a decent trade or two. On the 6 questions:

(1) Lewis or Palacios may be the  long term solution so this next year we sign a stop gap. Freddy Galvis or Iglesias make sense. Save the $$$ for pitching. 

(2) 2 new starters at a minimum, 3 if re-signing Pineda counts as "new". Sign one premium free agent like Stroman, Rondon or Jon Gray to a 3-5 year deal. Stay away from older types like Verlander or Greinke.  Stay far, far away from not quite there types like Alex Cobb or Danny Duffy. That spot goes to Pineda. Trade for one more starter - Alcantara or Rogers from Miami, Zach Gallen, someone like that and don't be afraid to part with real non-pitching assets like Martin or Miranda in combo with Kepler or Sano to get a good, young controllable starter.  Re-sign Pineda. Rotation goes Stroman, Alcantara, Pineda, Ober, Ryan. Don't worry about the other prospects getting an MLB chance in 2022; there will be plenty of IL time, etc. available for the others like Balazovic, Winder, Strotman, etc. to get a chance to show what they can do at the MLB level.

(3) Go to arbitration with Rogers and pay him. If he appears healthy try to negotiate a 2-3 year deal by the AS break and if you can't, keep him if you're in contention, trade him if you aren't. If he isn't able to go physically, eat the arb salary with a smile - it was worth the shot.  

(4) Don't play reliever roulette - keep the 6 guys mentioned, use guys like Jax or a FA to fill out the pen.  Keep Colome but only if Rocco promises he'll use a "closer by situation" approach, not a "Colome every time" approach. 

(5) The DH is for rotation. Donaldson plays 50/50 DH and 3B, same for Arraez. When one sits, 4th Of (Celestino), or backup IF like Gordon or Miranda DHs. Do NOT sign a full time DH unless you trade Donaldson. You can't have both.  

(6) SIGN BUXTON. He is one of the 2 keys to contention along with the rotation. Almost as importantly, signing him shows the team and the fan base that you're serious about winning. Will we need to over pay/take risk?  Yup. He's worth it. The twins cannot win consistently, or even every now and then, without taking significant risk. He is worth that risk.  

I agree with almost all of this but would be thrilled if the Twins signed Greinke to a 1-2 year deal. He's durable, effective, and shouldn't be super expensive given his age and bad August 2021. Verlander is a risk, but Kluber bounced back pretty well from similar circumstances. I would sign a glove first SS to a cheap 1 year deal. Even Simmons; he can't be worse with the bat than he was in 2021. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, dex8425 said:

I agree with almost all of this but would be thrilled if the Twins signed Greinke to a 1-2 year deal. He's durable, effective, and shouldn't be super expensive given his age and bad August 2021. Verlander is a risk, but Kluber bounced back pretty well from similar circumstances. I would sign a glove first SS to a cheap 1 year deal. Even Simmons; he can't be worse with the bat than he was in 2021. 

Grienke's ERA for the 2nd half of the season was 4.95.  His K/9 was 6.15 and his WAR was negative.  He will be 38 years old next year.  Relying on guys in their late 30's is not the path to building a sustainable winner unless that guy is Nelson Cruz. 

[dex8425]

21 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Grienke's ERA for the 2nd half of the season was 4.95.  His K/9 was 6.15 and his WAR was negative.  He will be 38 years old next year.  Relying on guys in their late 30's is not the path to building a sustainable winner unless that guy is Nelson Cruz. 

I wouldn't bet against him though. I don't think he likes being in Houston. Hall of famers don't always follow the same aging trajectory as everyone else. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, dex8425 said:

I wouldn't bet against him though. I don't think he likes being in Houston. Hall of famers don't always follow the same aging trajectory as everyone else. 

That's for sure.  Most pitchers are ineffective long before they turn 38.