4 Plausible Developments That Would Dramatically Alter the Twins' Fortunes

[D.C Twins]

I think there is a reasonable chance that Ryan is the one that ends up as a shut down RP with his two pitch mix. If he cannot be a #3 or higher starter... I would transition him to that role pronto.

Krill talent hype is legit.... BUT wrists are delicate and easily reinjured. I'm concerned about his long range health prospects

Jax will be a great AAAA pitcher who can fill in as needed at the MLB level until he runs out of options... not a lot more....but nice maxing out of talent on his part! Good on him.

I just don't see how Lewis will have an impact at the MLB level next year (or possibly ever). During his last full season he struggled in A ball with a 4:1 K to BB ratio... And that is before missing two seasons and a major injury. He has a much bigger chance of being a bust than being a longer term asset for the Twins. I hope I'm wrong.

The only way we are playoff level competitive next year is if we have two Liriano like surprises come out of the minors. Not likely, but not completely impossible.

Next year is going to be a development year

[Greglw3]

I would say the most likely is that Kirilloff develops into a force. But I want him in RF. Kepler’s ultra low batting averages won’t do and he’s had plenty of time to adjust that pull first mentality. The second most likely is that Miranda steps in and plays a lot. I would then sign a solid hitting LF for and OF of new sign in LF, Buxton in CF and Kirilloff in RF.

I hope Ryan is like his starts save the last one, which was frightening. I don’t know what to expect there. Falvey and Levine can turn their grade from F to A if they can sign Robbie Ray and Danny Duffy. And re-sign Pineda.

[roger]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Optimistic ceiling? Probably occasional All Star, bat first, corner outfielder. A Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer type. The advanced stats and metrics painted some unpleasant things for him this season, but he's still got a season to make some adjustments. 

Tough description as a Willingham, Cuddyer type.  In my ole eyes, those were two totally different players.  Willingham had lots of power and not much else.  Cuddy also had power, albeit not as much.  But Cuddy also hit for average, doubt he struck out as much and although not fast was a very good right fielder with a great arm...who also was more than adequate at first, second and third.  He did win a batting title in the other league, didn’t he?

[dex8425]

6 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Donaldson is the developmental key; trade him and use the salary savings to help retain Buxton or chase down a decent starting pitcher, Donaldson's absence opening up 3rd base for Miranda, who has nothing left to prove in AAA. With Donaldson completely out of the picture Sano moves to DH, opening up 1st for Kirillof, and backs up both corner positions if needed. 

If the Twins trade Josh and don't pay all or most of the contract, the Twins will have to give up a decent prospect. Donaldson was the 2nd best player on the team this season. If the Twins want to compete next season, which the FO is saying they want to, they won't trade Donaldson. 

[se7799]

6 hours ago, roger said:

So much talk about Jax being at best a bullpen arm.  Others continue to downplay his potential.  Come on folks, lets remember how little this young man has pitched and that he didn't pitch in 2020....at all.

My point being that he needs innings and experience to continue his development.  Should that be as a starter or in the pen, I don't have a clue.  What I do know is that this young man may, yes, I said MAY, just be scratching the surface of what he can become.  And age means nothing with this young man because when everyone else from his draft year was beginning their careers, he was finishing his education at the AFA before serving his (and our) country for a two year stint in the Air Force.

True, but.....how many long term successful starters are there that have his type of velocity and control in this day and age?

[ashbury]

Royce Lewis contributing anything to the big club before September seems beyond "plausible" and more into "so you're tellin' me there's a chance" territory.

 

[Thegrin]

I think the Twins have 3 chances for a good result in '22. Ober, Ober & Ober.

[LastOnePicked]

I think I initially misread this as an "in 2022" article, but I like that it wasn't. This all seems a bit more plausible to me over the longer haul, though with the exception of Jax matching Duffey's prime success (that seems downright impossible to me).

2022 is going to be very bad for the Twins - way too many rookies who are going to take their lumps - but a good year in terms of development and growth could set the table for success for 2023.

[Rosterman]

We will see on Ryan, but if he fails as a starter...he does have the potential to be a closing ace.

 

[DocBauer]

#1] Ryan is an athlete and competitor and bright. Don't underestimate those qualities. His FB is average velocity, 91-94, but plays up due to location and release. We were informed his secondary stuff needed work. OK. But I watched his games and his secondary stuff looked pretty good to me his first 4 starts. Not talking about the teams he pitched against, just watching his stuff. His last start was pretty scrappy, but come on, we're talking about a rookie pitching his final game after attending a family situation. 

At the risk of sounding really old, I just love the moxie of the kid and believe his stuff plays and plays well. I am NOT going to annoit him as a future ACE. For one thing, I've learned that ACE status is rare and COMPLETELY unpredictable. But I honestly see his floor as a quality #3 and very probably a quality #2 in a season or two. Anything more than that is up to him and time and experience.

(FWIW, I also see Ober as a potential #3 if he just stays healthy and keeps growing and can keep the HR numbers down)

#2] Nick, you have more optimism regarding Jax than I do. He is, unfortunately, a victim of circumstance in his delayed development. But I DO SEE a decent FB and a very njce slider. And the kid is smart. Fully appreciate numbers posted previously as to his rookie performance. But there is that key word: ROOKIE. For someone who wasn't even expected to pitch at the ML level this year, how much do we stare at the final numbers? Shouldn't we, in this case, just look at the positives and the FB and slider and just wonder about gaining experience and wonder/project what he might do in the pen? Honestly asking. I think he might have a real role there in the future, but I'd think it would be mid 2022 and not before.

#3] Never doubted AK before and won't now. This last wrist injury is not the same injury he had previously. So at this point, there is nothing chronic to worry about. He will probably end up at 1B because he's so good and natural there. And that's fine. But he's also solid in the OF.

#4] Nick, IMO, you are way off on Lewis for 2022. Maybe I'm just a blind optomist, but I believe in this kid so much! I 100% believe he is going to hit, provide power and speed and be exciting. I fully believe he has all the tools necessary to be at least a "competent" SS. I say this as no expert, but I've seen enough from milb hilights and ST games to recognize the skilllset is there. Now, I'm not expecting greatness right away, or in the future, but be should be at least solid. And I expect growing pains both offensively and defensively early on. But I will be pleasantly shocked if he's ready for 2022 in any way other than a late season promotion. No matter his talent, attitude, intelligence or "gamer" ability, he just needs to PLAY.

[MN_ExPat]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 The advanced stats and metrics painted some unpleasant things for him this season, but he's still got a season to make some adjustments. 

Well that's very noble of you to grant him that extra leash.  You are as wise as you are beneficent.  ? 

[MN_ExPat]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

#1] Ryan is an athlete and competitor and bright. Don't underestimate those qualities. His FB is average velocity, 91-94, but plays up due to location and release. We were informed his secondary stuff needed work. OK. But I watched his games and his secondary stuff looked pretty good to me his first 4 starts. Not talking about the teams he pitched against, just watching his stuff. His last start was pretty scrappy, but come on, we're talking about a rookie pitching his final game after attending a family situation. 

At the risk of sounding really old, I just love the moxie of the kid and believe his stuff plays and plays well. I am NOT going to annoit him as a future ACE. For one thing, I've learned that ACE status is rare and COMPLETELY unpredictable. But I honestly see his floor as a quality #3 and very probably a quality #2 in a season or two. Anything more than that is up to him and time and experience.

(FWIW, I also see Ober as a potential #3 if he just stays healthy and keeps growing and can keep the HR numbers down)

#2] Nick, you have more optimism regarding Jax than I do. He is, unfortunately, a victim of circumstance in his delayed development. But I DO SEE a decent FB and a very njce slider. And the kid is smart. Fully appreciate numbers posted previously as to his rookie performance. But there is that key word: ROOKIE. For someone who wasn't even expected to pitch at the ML level this year, how much do we stare at the final numbers? Shouldn't we, in this case, just look at the positives and the FB and slider and just wonder about gaining experience and wonder/project what he might do in the pen? Honestly asking. I think he might have a real role there in the future, but I'd think it would be mid 2022 and not before.

#3] Never doubted AK before and won't now. This last wrist injury is not the same injury he had previously. So at this point, there is nothing chronic to worry about. He will probably end up at 1B because he's so good and natural there. And that's fine. But he's also solid in the OF.

#4] Nick, IMO, you are way off on Lewis for 2022. Maybe I'm just a blind optomist, but I believe in this kid so much! I 100% believe he is going to hit, provide power and speed and be exciting. I fully believe he has all the tools necessary to be at least a "competent" SS. I say this as no expert, but I've seen enough from milb hilights and ST games to recognize the skilllset is there. Now, I'm not expecting greatness right away, or in the future, but be should be at least solid. And I expect growing pains both offensively and defensively early on. But I will be pleasantly shocked if he's ready for 2022 in any way other than a late season promotion. No matter his talent, attitude, intelligence or "gamer" ability, he just needs to PLAY.

Great take Doc.  I too share your hope and beliefs .

[TheLeviathan]

I think #1 and #3 are well argued and plausible.  Ryan's deception is legit and Kiriloff looks like a pro IMO. 

I think #2 and #4 were the right archetypes for this blog but the wrong players.  Jax, if he ever becomes that reliever, almost certainly won't do it in 2022.  The guy that could is Alcala.  His results speak to a young man who has turned the corner and could be lights out.  And the guy who should have been #4 IMO was Marten who is much closer to pro ready and might be the kind of do-it-all LF that could transform the lineup and the outfield D.  He could be this team's Whit Merrifield and has a much better chance of it in the near term than Lewis.

I still believe in Lewis, but the kid is going to need some patience.

[gunnarthor]

On 10/13/2021 at 12:15 PM, Unwinder said:

What's our optimistic ceiling for Larnach?

Michael Cuddyer. Solid pro.

[Shaitan]

On 10/13/2021 at 11:51 AM, bean5302 said:

Perkins was a 5 pitch pitcher who dropped pitches, increased his velocity and fastball separation from his slider, making the slider a functional pitch, in an era where a 96mph fastball was a big advantage. All that while dealing with Rick Anderson's nonsense.

So many things had to work out for Perkins. Is it hypothetically, theoretically, maybe possible Jax could do the same? Sure. Is is plausible? Absolutely not.

Except neither Perkins nor Duffey went to the bullpen in year 2. It took years and riding the AAA shuttle first before they made the move.