Projected Arbitration Numbers From MLBTradeRumors

[Vanimal46]

MLBTradeRumors link

Buxton $7.3M
Rogers $6.7M
Duffey $3.7M
Gant $3.7M
Garver $3.1M
Arraez $2.0M
Thielbar $1.2M
Astudillo $1.2M
Cave $1.1M
Minaya $1.1M
Coulombe $800k
Refsnyder $800k

[Brandon]

There are 4 potential non tenders in the group.  Refsnyder, Astudillo, Cave, and Coulombe,  Maybe Gant but I doubt it.  And Minaya has enough of a track record to be back as well.

 

[Tim]

Not loving Gant at 3.7 million, it was fun while it lasted .. I'd try and fill his spot with a similar player, maybe more upside. Something along the lines of a 24 year old righty that can pump it up to 100 and has a nasty slider .. wait.

Roll the dice with Moran or Cano and use that 4 mil (or less) to try and sign someone with somewhat of a proven track record having success out of the 'pen. 

[nicksaviking]

I hope they think long and hard about Duffey and Gant, because if they offer arbitration, that's pretty much going to lock them into the pen. Rogers, Acala and Theilbar are already likely locks, I'm not sure they want to commit to five at this point since they probably need two impressive looking free agent additions to keep the fans happy and I'd rather at least one of the spots get occupied by one of the never-going-to-make-it-as-a-MLB-starters the Twins continue to pointlessly push. Then you still have the Dobnak mess to sort out....

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Buxton $7.3M
Garver $3.1M
Arraez $2.0M
Thielbar $1.2M
Minaya $1.1M

These are the players who would still be underpaid at that cost.

[bean5302]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

These are the players who would still be underpaid at that cost.

Honestly, based purely on production WAR vs. free agency cost per WAR, almost all of them would be underpaid. That's really to be expected, though. Arbitration isn't designed to pay players for their production at market value. It's kind of the ramp up from being paid MLB minimum type levels to their actual free agency production value. 

It's not too hard to argue the current system is totally unfair or argue the system is actually balanced by considering the risk of player performance and team investment.

[bean5302]

It's pretty rare players force arbitration, but those numbers are probably pretty good ideas of what it's going to cost to retain those players while avoiding arbitration. I could see Buxton, Rogers and Garver potentially going to arbitration because their values are hard to gauge, but all three are also extension candidates.

Rogers is a big question mark, though. The Twins are obviously going to have the inside track on Rogers' finger recovery. Since I haven't heard anything about him having surgery, I'm going to guess the flexor tendon strain is actually recovering nicely as I'd expect he'd know whether or not surgery was going to be required by now.

I'd non-tender the following since I believe all of them could be easily retained at close to MLB minimum if needed. I doubt any of them would get better than a MiLB contract on the open market.
Astudillo $1.2M 
Cave $1.1M
Minaya $1.1M
Refsnyder $800k

[ashbury]

With the exception of Gant, salary should not be a deciding factor on keeping or jettisoning any of these players, and hopefully the team will find a satisfactory way to avoid arbitration on each.  E.g. I would not discard Duffey in hopes of getting someone equivalent but for less, nor would I keep Refsnyder just because he'll work cheaply.

Even Gant is merely marginal at that price, and if his agent understands that his client will likely come out behind if he is cut and forced to find another team, the parties may be able to come to an agreement slightly under the listed value.

That number sounds low for Garver, but I'm not going to invest effort trying to understand why it's fair nor what additional factors there may be.  Don't play hardball on this guy's contract, Twins, there's something to be said for being known as a desirable organization to get drafted by and then succeed with!

[Rosterman]

Buxton arbitration will be interesting based on the number of games he has played the last two seasons. DIdn't want to pay Wisler last season. Will the Twins pay Minaya or Coulombe roughly the same this season? The Twins already have too many outfielders, depending on what they do do with Rooker, as well as Arraez and Gordon.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

...That number sounds low for Garver, but I'm not going to invest effort trying to understand why it's fair nor what additional factors there may be.  Don't play hardball on this guy's contract, Twins, there's something to be said for being known as a desirable organization to get drafted by and then succeed with!

Arbitration values are heavily based on the previous arbitration year. Garver was hurt and played poorly in 2020 so his 2021 arbitration salary was a meager $1.875MM. This year, he played very well, but was hurt half the season again so a huge increase in salary would have two factors working hard against it (previous arbitration year salary and injury).

Players recognize how arbitration has worked previously and I think it's rare a player is upset at being paid at a normal rate.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

I'm not going to invest effort trying to understand why

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Arbitration values are heavily based on the previous arbitration year. Garver was hurt and played poorly in 2020 so his 2021 arbitration salary was a meager $1.875MM. This year, he played very well, but was hurt half the season again so a huge increase in salary would have two factors working hard against it (previous arbitration year salary and injury).

Players recognize how arbitration has worked previously and I think it's rare a player is upset at being paid at a normal rate.

tl;dnr - what part of "not going to invest effort trying to understand" did you not invest effort trying to understand?

 

 

/ no, of course your explanation makes good sense - but if I'm the Twins I'd still go easy on applying the screws in this case

[roger]

Personally have a problem with Duff and Gant projected at the same dollars.  Gant’s role on my team would be competing for a long relief role.  If Buxton could only expect $7.3M thru arbitration next year, a five year contract beginning next year with a $14M base and healthy bonuses for games played should get his attention.

[yeahyabetcha]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Personally have a problem with Duff and Gant projected at the same dollars.  Gant’s role on my team would be competing for a long relief role.  If Buxton could only expect $7.3M thru arbitration next year, a five year contract beginning next year with a $14M base and healthy bonuses for games played should get his attention.

Or he could just take his 7 million this year, stay healthy and put up numbers close to this year’s rate and expect a much larger offer next offseason.

[DocBauer]

Within the confines of the system being what they are, I think the numbers presented seem fair. I am not touching at all on Buxton or Rogers at this point as their are mitigating factors too complicated to deal with at this point. But as to the rest....

I'd avoid arbitration with Duffey and give him a lower annual number but give him a 2yr deal. He's just been too good, has made adjustments, and just too young to expect the wheels to suddenly fly off.

Garver is under control for a couple more years, won't cost you much, and will reach FA, probably, too old to demand a huge deal. But he's also too damned good to not keep and split his time between C and DH. I'd do the same as Duffey. Just dismiss the B.S. and lock him to 2yrs.

Arraez and Thielbar, no issues.

Gant is a problem for me. Yes he showed flashes as a SP out of necessity once the Twins acquired him. And while he's had limited success as a SP in his career, he seems to have better numbers and value as a quality BP option who can swing in to the rotation when you need him. I'd really like to keep him in that role. It may sound like splitting hairs, but I think $2.5-2.7 makes more sense. I MIGHT even go $3M. Anything more than that just feels like an overpay to me.

Not the time or place to discuss Astudillo's worth to the team. But IF the Twins have room and decide to protect him, his number hurts nothing and is just fine. (I think he's 50-50 being kept and the Twins would love to re-sign him to a split milb deal but think someone else might give him a better offer).

IMO, Minaya has a history, a good 2020 at the alternate site, and a quality 2021 that he is probably protected. His salary is a drop in the bucket. Coulombe would be a nice milb re-sign. But there's just no room for him on the 40 man. Same with Refsnyder. I really, really want Refsnyder back on a milb deal for depth, and because I really think he re-invented himself as a hitter, post injury notwithstanding. But again, no room. And he could be quickly passed not only be Celestino, but also Kerrigan and Contreras, though younger.

The small elephant in the room is Cave. I like Cave. I think he's a gamer and a solid ballplayer. He might even have a solid future. But after injury and 2 poor years, I just don't see a fit for this team going forward. Frankly what the Twins need is a RH version of him in 2018-19. That may come via trade or FA or from within. A FA might cost more. Celestino could jump up. Regardless, it's time to move on.

[roger]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Within the confines of the system being what they are, I think the numbers presented seem fair. I am not touching at all on Buxton or Rogers at this point as their are mitigating factors too complicated to deal with at this point. But as to the rest....

I'd avoid arbitration with Duffey and give him a lower annual number but give him a 2yr deal. He's just been too good, has made adjustments, and just too young to expect the wheels to suddenly fly off.

Garver is under control for a couple more years, won't cost you much, and will reach FA, probably, too old to demand a huge deal. But he's also too damned good to not keep and split his time between C and DH. I'd do the same as Duffey. Just dismiss the B.S. and lock him to 2yrs.

Arraez and Thielbar, no issues.

Gant is a problem for me. Yes he showed flashes as a SP out of necessity once the Twins acquired him. And while he's had limited success as a SP in his career, he seems to have better numbers and value as a quality BP option who can swing in to the rotation when you need him. I'd really like to keep him in that role. It may sound like splitting hairs, but I think $2.5-2.7 makes more sense. I MIGHT even go $3M. Anything more than that just feels like an overpay to me.

Not the time or place to discuss Astudillo's worth to the team. But IF the Twins have room and decide to protect him, his number hurts nothing and is just fine. (I think he's 50-50 being kept and the Twins would love to re-sign him to a split milb deal but think someone else might give him a better offer).

IMO, Minaya has a history, a good 2020 at the alternate site, and a quality 2021 that he is probably protected. His salary is a drop in the bucket. Coulombe would be a nice milb re-sign. But there's just no room for him on the 40 man. Same with Refsnyder. I really, really want Refsnyder back on a milb deal for depth, and because I really think he re-invented himself as a hitter, post injury notwithstanding. But again, no room. And he could be quickly passed not only be Celestino, but also Kerrigan and Contreras, though younger.

The small elephant in the room is Cave. I like Cave. I think he's a gamer and a solid ballplayer. He might even have a solid future. But after injury and 2 poor years, I just don't see a fit for this team going forward. Frankly what the Twins need is a RH version of him in 2018-19. That may come via trade or FA or from within. A FA might cost more. Celestino could jump up. Regardless, it's time to move on.

Its a shame the TD system doesn't allow me to give this piece 'two' likes.  Thanks, Doc.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, roger said:

If Buxton could only expect $7.3M thru arbitration next year, a five year contract beginning next year with a $14M base and healthy bonuses for games played should get his attention.

I agree that the low arbitration number gives the Twins some leverage for negotiations but I think that base is going to have to be above $17M. Lorenzo Cain is getting $16M from the Brewers. We know part of how salary is negotiated is keeping score. Being 3rd behind Trout ($35M) and Springer ($25M) would probably be okay but Buxton knows he's better than Cain. 5 years $87M plus incentives should be the starting point for the Twins. That makes the extension worth 4 years and $80M.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I keep Buxton, Garver, Arraez, Rogers, and Duffey without hesitation.

I’m 50/50 on Gant and Minaya. I may keep one but probably not both.

The rest can go. I’m a big believer in aggressive turnover of this roster for 2022. I want fewer depth pieces, fewer corner players, and more aggressive upside signings, of which we saw basically zero last off-season.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

15 hours ago, roger said:

Personally have a problem with Duff and Gant projected at the same dollars.  Gant’s role on my team would be competing for a long relief role.  If Buxton could only expect $7.3M thru arbitration next year, a five year contract beginning next year with a $14M base and healthy bonuses for games played should get his attention.

According to prior reports, I think the Twins and Buxton agreed on $80,000,000 for 5 years (I think it was 5 years) with incentive bonuses added. Therefore it will  it will need to be at least $43,835.62 per day for 5 years plus the incentives to be agreed upon.  Maybe an extra $3,000 per day for meal money plus a team paid nutritionist assigned to Buck..  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Just now, tarheeltwinsfan said:

According to prior reports, I think the Twins and Buxton agreed on $80,000,000 for 5 years (I think it was 5 years) with incentive bonuses added. Therefore it will  it will need to be at least $43,835.62 per day for 5 years plus the incentives to be agreed upon.  Maybe an extra $3,000 per day for meal money plus a team paid nutritionist assigned to Buck..  

They did not agree on the incentive bonuses and that is the holdup now. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

They did not agree on the incentive bonuses and that is the holdup now. 

People talk about how difficult the Buxton decision is but I feel it's the easiest decision the Twins make this offseason. They need to just take their baseline offer and keep offering more until he says yes.

Problem solved.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I keep Buxton, Garver, Arraez, Rogers, and Duffey without hesitation.

I’m 50/50 on Gant and Minaya. I may keep one but probably not both.

The rest can go. I’m a big believer in aggressive turnover of this roster for 2022. I want fewer depth pieces, fewer corner players, and more aggressive upside signings, of which we saw basically zero last off-season.  

Truth.

[21bdp21]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I agree that the low arbitration number gives the Twins some leverage for negotiations but I think that base is going to have to be above $17M. Lorenzo Cain is getting $16M from the Brewers. We know part of how salary is negotiated is keeping score. Being 3rd behind Trout ($35M) and Springer ($25M) would probably be okay but Buxton knows he's better than Cain. 5 years $87M plus incentives should be the starting point for the Twins. That makes the extension worth 4 years and $80M.

I would do 7 years 15M a year garneted. This would get the base value over 100M. Then provide LOTS of incentives. Make it stupid easy to hit 20M. So say 5M per 40 games played. So if he plays 120 games he would get 30M. That would put him up with Trout. Than throw a couple more incentives in for benchmarks and goal posts for a max yearly value of 40ish M. 
This would be a min value of 115mil with a max value of 280M more likely Buxton would hit 20-25 mil a year easily. so it would be 140-175M.
 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, 21bdp21 said:

I would do 7 years 15M a year garneted. This would get the base value over 100M. Then provide LOTS of incentives. Make it stupid easy to hit 20M. So say 5M per 40 games played. So if he plays 120 games he would get 30M. That would put him up with Trout. Than throw a couple more incentives in for benchmarks and goal posts for a max yearly value of 40ish M. 
This would be a min value of 115mil with a max value of 280M more likely Buxton would hit 20-25 mil a year easily. so it would be 140-175M.
 

In the case of Buxton, I'd go as high with incentives that he'd make $35m, maybe even $40m, if he maxes out games played. And then I'd consider tacking on like $5m for an MVP award.

Do whatever it takes to extend the guy, the upside is just too great. If Buxton maxes out his incentives, the team should not be anything but thrilled no matter how much they have to pay him.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I have said it before, Buck is the most exciting player that I have ever seen play for this franchise, and I've been a Senators/Twins fan since 1953. Pay the man whatever it takes to keep him a Twin for life.