3 Things Learned About the Twins' Farm System in 2021

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Minor League Baseball returned in 2021 after being sidelined the previous summer due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, many prospects and farm systems around the league were either seen for the first time or analyzed with fresh eyes.

Here is what the collective we learned about the Minnesota Twins system this past summer.

 

1. Pitching Depth is the Strength... 
For years, the Twins were known for producing soft-tossing pitchers and preaching a pitch-to-contact approach. However, if one needs an example to display that is no longer the case, it would be challenging to produce a more blatant example than the 2021 season.

Partially due to the natural evolution of the game as well as the Derek Falvey and Thad Levine regime's propensity to select hard-throwing high schoolers and college arms with solid reputations, the Twins farm system is currently replete with pitching talent.

Jhoan Duran and Chase Petty are among those who sit in the upper 90s and touch 100 mph with regularity. Sawyer Gipson-Long, Matt Canterino, and Louie Varland all boasted K% north of 30%. There's so much talent in the system that top prospects Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Cole Sands, and Simeon Woods Richardson couldn't even be bothered to pop up until the fifth paragraph of this article!

And the talent doesn't stop at the backend of the starting rotation. While Jovani Moran and his 42% strikeout rate earned a promotion to the big league club by the end of the season, he was only one of a handful of genuine bullpen arms that excelled over the summer.

Zach Featherstone, Jordan Gore, Osiris German, Aaron Rozek, Yennier Cano, and Denny Bentley put up huge strikeout numbers across various levels, and all boasted ERAs below 3.40. Ian Hamilton, a former top prospect in the White Sox system, put together a strong season at Triple-A, and it could be argued that he deserved a call-up at multiple points this season.

In short, this is no longer your Dad's Twins farm system. Their approach to acquiring and developing pitching is night and day from 5-10 years ago. In short order, the team will be reaping the benefits of what they sowed, whether by advancing critical pieces to the majors or by swapping prospects for MLB-ready talent.

2. …, However, Offensive Depth is Lacking
It's well known at this point that infield prospect Jose Miranda had one of the best seasons in all of MiLB this past summer. The 23-year-old slashed .344/.401/.572 to go along with 30 home runs, 32 doubles, and a 158 wRC+ across Double- and Triple-A en route to garnering numerous awards.

Besides Miranda, who could play a prominent role on the Twins as early as next spring, the system lacks definite MLB-caliber offensive talent, particularly up the middle. Top prospects Royce Lewis and Austin Martin possess the raw talent to succeed at the MLB level for years to come. However, Lewis has not played organized baseball for nearly two years due to COVID and injury, and neither are guaranteed to stick at shortstop. (In fact, Martin played the majority of his innings in centerfield after coming over from the Toronto Blue Jays in the Jose Berrios trade.)

Utility guy Edouard Julien put together arguably the most potent offensive season besides Miranda — he posted a 154 wRC+ due largely to his absurd 21.4% walk rate. He also showed more pop (18 home runs, 28 doubles) and base stealing ability (34 in 39 attempts) at Low- and High-A than he did while at Auburn University. However, he lacks a true defensive home, having appeared all over the diamond this past summer, though he is most robust at second base.

Beyond the two, the Twins top offensive performers, according to FanGraphs, were a who’s-who of borderline top 30 prospects and minor league veterans. 



Luckily for the Twins, the majority of their offense at the big league level comprises established athletes who are under contract, so the need for prospects to reach the majors next summer is at a minimum. However, beyond the summer of 2022, the lack of offensive depth in the system may begin to rear its head unless key pieces are retained or a few of the borderline prospects breakout. 

3. Watching Minor League Ball was a Good Distraction
Perhaps distraction isn't the correct term here. The Twins were terrible this year and, at many points, virtually unwatchable. But their minor league teams all performed well this year and served as an excellent alternative for the baseball hungry. 

There are many issues with minor league baseball — the players are poorly compensated, the life is a grind, the production value of non-Twins streams was often pretty bad, etc. — but baseball is baseball at the end of the day. Few teams across MLB put forth a better minor league product than the Twins, which made the summer much more enjoyable.
 

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[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure why you didn't use the board, and not minor league leader board, when looking at the hitters? I mean, Lewis and Martin are number 1 and 3 on the list of team prospects......and there are three others in the top 12. 

That's five of the top 12 prospects as hitters, and Miranda isn't even in that part of the list (yet).

Agreed on the pitching depth, this isn't the old Twins at all.

[wsnydes]

I tend to agree with @Mike Sixel on the bats.  Though, they're probably a little top heavy.  Not a ton of depth there, or versatility defensively.  At least position players are easier to acquire.  If I can't have both, I'd much rather have quality pitching depth getting developed.

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure why you didn't use the board, and not minor league leader board, when looking at the hitters? I mean, Lewis and Martin are number 1 and 3 on the list of team prospects......and there are three others in the top 12. 

That's five of the top 12 prospects as hitters, and Miranda isn't even in that part of the list (yet).

Agreed on the pitching depth, this isn't the old Twins at all.

The main reason I used the leaderboard is two-fold, though I understand your argument against doing so and concede it holds water.

1. I value performance more than I value projection; that's just a bias of mine. 2. I don't want my evaluations to be influenced too greatly by other sources; I want to judge for myself as much as possible. 2b. FanGraphs' prospect rankings are a little outdated.

I think you could easily argue that Lewis, Martin, and Miranda are the only hitters in the system that should rank in the top 10. Most of the other hitting prospects displayed significant weaknesses this year that limits their potential in my mind. The most consistent shortstop this past summer was Jermaine Palacios, a borderline prospect who's probably more likely a third or even first baseman. As mentioned in the article, Lewis hasn't played in two years and many considered him to be more of an outfielder before the pandemic. 

In short, I guess I just don't see a ton of future pros like I do with the pitchers. 

[Dman]

I get what the OP is  saying in that this group of hitters doesn't seem to have the star power of the Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco etc group.  Still Miranda and Martin could be a new M&M connection.  Julien and Steer look like bat first players and Steer could be a plus defender at 2nd.  Severino started slow but finished with a 900 OPS in High A.  When Wallner was healthy he looked good at the plate his peripherals are horrible but he still could be good to great.  We don't know what Lewis's bat will be like when he gets back but if it is just average with his other skills he can still be a star player.  I think that is pretty good for star talent coming up and that doesn't include the younger guys who could develop in Cavaco, Urbina, Rodriquez, Rosario, Miller etc.  They pick high in the draft again so there will be even more talent to add soon enough.  I don't think the cupboard is bare.  Maybe not as many guys with elite All Star level skills as some systems but not bottom level either.

I do agree with the piece on the pitching side.  If they can keep their arms healthy things have never looked better for the arms we have down on the farm.  Those guys still need to make the jump to MLB and that is no easy task but the depth is good right now and should continue to come in waves.

[mikelink45]

I agree - the bats that are not in MLB are not impressive when you get past the top 3

[roger]

Thanks for an interesting look at the organization Lucas.

Guessing that Martin wasn’t on the list because he was with Toronto most of the year?  Where would he fit in this group, assuming he was over 100?

[roger]

Thanks for the link to the Fangraphics chart.  Had never seen that before.  See that Miranda was 17th in all minor leagues.  Half of the 16 ahead of him were in the DSL.  Of the 8 other, only 4 were AA or AAA, one being 28 years old.

[DocBauer]

A well written OP! And I mostly agree with everything stated.

1] While there has been some gnashing of teeth as to the Twins not selecting a P in the 1st round, I think the early results of the past few drafts have shown this FO and their scouting department have a good eye identifying arms from the 2nd round on. Not including some great to very interesting arms acquired in trades, they've brought on the likes of Enlow, Sands, Canterino, Verlander, Gipson-Long and others.

The only bummer/downside is one that has seemingly affected most teams in that we are dealing with injuries as well as a lost 2020. I could care less about other organizations, but the Twins plan of bridging the gap from what was on hand to prospects got a big, heavy monkey wrench tossed in to the middle of the plan. Still, there is so much depth and potential it's hard to not be excited about what's coming up the next couple of years.

2] I am going to disagree somewhat on the offensive talent in the system. While I agree an infusion of additional offensive talent might be needed, there is a difference between lack of talent and a "gap" in talent. By that I mean to state the obvious that Kirilloff, Larnach, Jeffers and Rooker...despite SSS and what anyone's opinion of their potential might be...more or less "graduated" to MLB. (With things to still prove to be sure). We also saw Rortvedt and Celestino get promoted too early, but will hopefully take their experiences and grow along with the others. 

The Twins made a pretty concentrated effort over the past 2 or 3 drafts to bring in position players, especially in the infield. Steer and Julian are a part of those drafts. And while there may be some question as to where they will play, they are both showing versatility and mad offensive skills/potential. Holland from Auburn and Cavaco and Gray, Helman, and Mack are a collection who have all played a max of 2yrs thus far with mixed results thus far. They've also drafted OF like Keirsey, Garry Jr., Waller and Rosario since 2018 who have, again, barely played. We can also add in Sabato and Soularie as infield/OF options recently added to the system.

Then you have to look at recent international signings from the past 2yrs who have only just hit the states.

So while I think...without ignoring the mound...the Twins would be smart to add some additional offensive talent, I don't think they've been sleeping on adding positional talent. The only "problem" is a "gap" of positional talent created, in part, by the lost 2020 season. 

We have to remember the 2018 picks got a short season, and then 1 full year before sitting for a season. The 2019 picks got a half year to play pro ball. Period. The 2020 picks got nothing but instructs at best. 

Just saying, by this time next year we could be looking at the offensive potential of position player depth very differently after another instructional league and a second full season of milb. IMO, the problem may not be talent, but bad timing and the aforementioned "gap" that was created.

 

 

 

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I agree - the bats that are not in MLB are not impressive when you get past the top 3

Agreed. But as I just posted previously, how do we feel this same time next year...maybe mid-year...when Celestino, Waller, Steer, Julian and others have some more time under their belts? 

Instructionals and another normal full milb season could easily change a lot of things. There are a LOT of kids I have my eye on from AA on down to the FCL. (I still can't get used to the FCL name). Prospect lists and milb rankings could change a lot by this time next year, including depth of positional players.

[tony&rodney]

Fine post.

One quibble is that past milb players within the Twins system have also received great attention and high marks by fans. Willie Banks anyone? Going way back -Willie Norwood. Prospects are exciting but each 5-10 year stretch seems to forget that the road to the The Show is strewn with high velocity arms and can't miss sluggers (Michael Restovich). Baseball is a tough business from the players' side.

[Mark G]

12 hours ago, Dman said:

I get what the OP is  saying in that this group of hitters doesn't seem to have the star power of the Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco etc group.  Still Miranda and Martin could be a new M&M connection.  Julien and Steer look like bat first players and Steer could be a plus defender at 2nd.  Severino started slow but finished with a 900 OPS in High A.  When Wallner was healthy he looked good at the plate his peripherals are horrible but he still could be good to great.  We don't know what Lewis's bat will be like when he gets back but if it is just average with his other skills he can still be a star player.  I think that is pretty good for star talent coming up and that doesn't include the younger guys who could develop in Cavaco, Urbina, Rodriquez, Rosario, Miller etc.  They pick high in the draft again so there will be even more talent to add soon enough.  I don't think the cupboard is bare.  Maybe not as many guys with elite All Star level skills as some systems but not bottom level either.

I do agree with the piece on the pitching side.  If they can keep their arms healthy things have never looked better for the arms we have down on the farm.  Those guys still need to make the jump to MLB and that is no easy task but the depth is good right now and should continue to come in waves.

Ah, yes, the 400 pound gorilla in the room - if they can keep their arms healthy.  Way too much of the time, they can't, and it does make me wonder if it is because of the power style at such a young age.  I am old enough to have seen a few different pitching approaches over the eras and my personal favorite was the pitch to contact..  I may be remembering differently than some, but I do not recall anywhere near as many injuries year in and year out throughout the entire organization as you see in this era.  Way too many pitches today, and way too little contact.  And not necessarily swing and miss no contact, but too many fowl balls all game every game.  The other night NY and Tampa played a 1-0 pitchers duel and it still took 3hours and 3minutes.  This is not only turning fans off due to the sheer length, but makes pitchers throw more than I can remember in my life.  Maybe it is because too many pitchers simply don't have the control to throw the ball where they want the contact to be made, so they try to over power everyone, but it sure looks to this observer that the power game also leads to more injuries as well as too many relievers pitching every day.  Starters going 5 inninngs with 90+ pitches and having to be taken out.  Not good for the arm or the game.

That is just one mans extremely humble opinion.  Thanks for the good post.  

[4twinsJA]

Twins lacking elite potential position players at the lower levels. Some players had some good periods but lacked consistency or had injuries. Baseball America listed top 10 position players in each league in minors from low A to AAA, no mention of any Twins player. FO has been emphasizing pitching and results have been encouraging, but would like to see more top level potential in minors for position players.

[Dman]

29 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Ah, yes, the 400 pound gorilla in the room - if they can keep their arms healthy.  Way too much of the time, they can't, and it does make me wonder if it is because of the power style at such a young age.  I am old enough to have seen a few different pitching approaches over the eras and my personal favorite was the pitch to contact..  I may be remembering differently than some, but I do not recall anywhere near as many injuries year in and year out throughout the entire organization as you see in this era.  Way too many pitches today, and way too little contact.  And not necessarily swing and miss no contact, but too many fowl balls all game every game.  The other night NY and Tampa played a 1-0 pitchers duel and it still took 3hours and 3minutes.  This is not only turning fans off due to the sheer length, but makes pitchers throw more than I can remember in my life.  Maybe it is because too many pitchers simply don't have the control to throw the ball where they want the contact to be made, so they try to over power everyone, but it sure looks to this observer that the power game also leads to more injuries as well as too many relievers pitching every day.  Starters going 5 inninngs with 90+ pitches and having to be taken out.  Not good for the arm or the game.

That is just one mans extremely humble opinion.  Thanks for the good post.  

Yeah I have to say I was stunned by the sheer volume of injury to the minor league pitching staff.  They ended up needing to grab guys from Independent leagues just to keep things going this year.  The Twins do seem to be getting their guys to move up a few ticks on the fastball but at what cost is anyone's best guess.

I think the fact that hitters are generally trying to take pitchers and especially starters deep into counts and pitchers needing max effort on so many pitches leads to pitchers reaching their pitch counts earlier and possibly with max effort putting more strain on the arm.  At the MLB level there is so little margin for error and pitching at those levels puts incredible stress on the arm.  I don't see things changing anytime soon though.

[Otaknam]

A more comprehensive chart would have included player position as well as home runs and rbi stats. Just a thought.

[Sousy]

Quote

There are many issues with minor league baseball — the players are poorly compensated, the life is a grind, the production value of non-Twins streams was often pretty bad, etc. — but baseball is baseball at the end of the day. Few teams across MLB put forth a better minor league product than the Twins, which made the summer much more enjoyable.

In retrospect, the offseason move that made the biggest difference in how I watch / consume baseball was the new Twins AAA affiliation with the St. Paul Saints.  I paid more attention to the AAA / AA levels than I really had in the past, mostly because the various beat writers were able to actually go see the teams - and so could we.

Having the AAA players be in the media market is a great thing for being able to connect to and track the progress of these players. A year ago I don't know that I would have really known some of these guys beyond what I could find on the internet, but going to actually see Ryan Jeffers catch Bailey Ober earlier in the year really cemented that mental / emotional connection in a way that reading about the Rochester Red Wings on the internet didn't.

[4twinsJA]

I subscribed to MiLB TV for the season, $40. Loved it, lower quality picture at some of the ballparks, but great to see some of the players coming up in the system. My biggest disappointment for Twins system was lack of top pitching prospects-Duran, Balazovic, progressing to MLB due to injuries and injuries to Enlow and Canterino. 

[Major League Ready]

I agree with those who say we are a little short on depth in position players.  We could end up looking quite strong a year from now but we really need Miranda / Lewis and Martin to reach their projections.  There are plenty of other guys who can average MLB players and you need those guys too.  There is always the chance guys like Walner / Severino / Cabbage / Sabato could also continue to improve their stock.  It sure would be nice to have another Miranda like breakout player next year.

If you fill a rotation from within, it's easier to fill position players from free agency and we will be in a financial position to do so if we build a rotation from prospects.  We can also afford to extend Buxton who is all the more important given our lack of depth at CF and position players in general.

[Sousy]

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

I subscribed to MiLB TV for the season, $40. Loved it, lower quality picture at some of the ballparks, but great to see some of the players coming up in the system.

That was pretty amazing, too.  I just wish there was an easier way to do MiLB on a "TV" rather than having to Airplay / Cast the video.

It was amusing to see the differences in how the different MiLB teams did the broadcast, which also reflects the amount of financial / community support that exists for the teams.

St. Paul / Wichita originate some pretty good broadcasts.  Some of the other cities felt more like someone's mom was holding a phone camera while a radio broadcast was playing.

[roger]

3 hours ago, Sousy said:

That was pretty amazing, too.  I just wish there was an easier way to do MiLB on a "TV" rather than having to Airplay / Cast the video.

It was amusing to see the differences in how the different MiLB teams did the broadcast, which also reflects the amount of financial / community support that exists for the teams.

St. Paul / Wichita originate some pretty good broadcasts.  Some of the other cities felt more like someone's mom was holding a phone camera while a radio broadcast was playing.

I have Hulu and a firestick.  One app that comes up is 'internet.'  All I have to do is type in the MiLBtv address and all the games are there.  After doing it once, it comes up automatically, at least for me.  And I am as technically challenged as they come, so it must be simple.  Quality of most broadcasts is excellent...although I watched mostly St. Paul and Wichita.

[Sousy]

1 hour ago, roger said:

I have Hulu and a firestick.  One app that comes up is 'internet.' 

I had a bunch of authentication issues with a Firestick - couldn't log in for some reason and didn't dig much harder; nice to know that it's workable.

There was a St. Paul at Omaha game where Ian Hamilton was pitching.  For whatever reason the camera angle was such where you couldn't really see half the plate due to the angle: just Hamilton's back.

It was great fun to scroll through the Class A video feeds - so many ballparks in the early part of the season that looked like they mounted a webcam in a (mostly) empty stadium.

[roger]

6 minutes ago, Sousy said:

I had a bunch of authentication issues with a Firestick - couldn't log in for some reason and didn't dig much harder; nice to know that it's workable.

There was a St. Paul at Omaha game where Ian Hamilton was pitching.  For whatever reason the camera angle was such where you couldn't really see half the plate due to the angle: just Hamilton's back.

It was great fun to scroll through the Class A video feeds - so many ballparks in the early part of the season that looked like they mounted a webcam in a (mostly) empty stadium.

Yes, it was a nightmare.  But my wife, who has the patience of a saint, spent one morning doing it.

[Murph]

Garver, Sanó, Polanco, Gordon, Arraez, Kepler, Buxton, Rooker, and Duffy and Jax (also Eddie Rosario, Lamonte Wade Jr., Berrios, and Chargois who sadly are gone) ALL came from the Twins farm system - PRE-FALVINE, who came in October, 2016.  

Falvine brought in Ober and Jeffers (who got the chance due to Garver's injury).  That's not much - but it's still early, right?  Five years.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Murph said:

Garver, Sanó, Polanco, Gordon, Arraez, Kepler, Buxton, Rooker, and Duffy and Jax (also Eddie Rosario, Lamonte Wade Jr., Berrios, and Chargois who sadly are gone) ALL came from the Twins farm system - PRE-FALVINE, who came in October, 2016.  

Falvine brought in Ober and Jeffers (who got the chance due to Garver's injury).  That's not much - but it's still early, right?  Five years.  

One of those years was cancelled, right? Also, you missed guys they traded for or signed. 

[Trov]

The lack of depth on the offensive side of things is concerning.  Of course we do not need much in the next year or two, but after that there will start to be holes that need to be filled. I know pitching was a big need for long time to have depth there, but my worry is we will be too much like Cleveland minors that keep pumping out pitching but no offense at all. Some of our bat only guys have not shown their bat carries into pro ball as much. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

The lack of depth on the offensive side of things is concerning.  Of course we do not need much in the next year or two, but after that there will start to be holes that need to be filled. I know pitching was a big need for long time to have depth there, but my worry is we will be too much like Cleveland minors that keep pumping out pitching but no offense at all. Some of our bat only guys have not shown their bat carries into pro ball as much. 

Larnach, Jeffers, Rortvedt, Lewis, Martin, Miranda, kiriloff...... How many top hitting prospects or rookies do people think teams have? That ignores any breakout.

[2wins87]

Emmanuel Rodriguez should be tied for 4th on the list of hitters.  It's hard to get enough ABs in the complex league to qualify for whatever cutoff was used, and he did play in a majority of their games.

I think Urbina is a guy to not give up on yet, despite the abysmal top line numbers.  The Low-A Southeast was a very low offense league with a changing automatic strike zone.  He kept his strikeout rate quite low, but just didn't hit the ball with any authority.  That could come if he adds some strength and refines his approach, and the numbers could improve in a hurry.

In general, the system lacks that potential superstar that they have sometimes had in the past.  Maybe Duran putting it all together is the best shot.  But if they can produce good mid rotation starters and relievers at will it can at least help them focus monetary resources on filling other gaps.  It's a change from the previous regime, but they also haven't had many opportunities to get pick those really toolsy high upside guys that the previous regime was good at drafting.  Cavaco is looking like a reach, but we'll see what they can do with the #8 pick next year.

[Murph]

On 10/6/2021 at 11:05 PM, Mike Sixel said:

One of those years was cancelled, right? Also, you missed guys they traded for or signed. 

My comment was about the players who came out of the Twins FARM SYSTEM.  None of those players is to Falvine's "credit."

[Major League Ready]

On 10/6/2021 at 8:10 PM, Murph said:

Garver, Sanó, Polanco, Gordon, Arraez, Kepler, Buxton, Rooker, and Duffy and Jax (also Eddie Rosario, Lamonte Wade Jr., Berrios, and Chargois who sadly are gone) ALL came from the Twins farm system - PRE-FALVINE, who came in October, 2016.  

Falvine brought in Ober and Jeffers (who got the chance due to Garver's injury).  That's not much - but it's still early, right?  Five years.  

 Their first draft was 2017 so they have had 4 drafts.  We also lost an entire season.  It's ironic you suggest someone is incompetent with a review that contains an inaccurate account of the terms nor do you account for an extremely unusual circumstance of a missed season.  I guess if you just want to complain a reasonable account of the facts is not necessary.

[Murph]

Whatever.  You can go the distance to misinterpret my point if it makes you feel better.  I'm done.