40 Man Roster Management October Update

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Jax wouldn't be subject to the Rule 5 draft unless he cleared waivers and was outrighted off the 40-man roster. (But I agree, he'd almost certainly get claimed on waivers right now, if only to be waived again shortly thereafter by the claiming team.)

I concur. Jax is a prime candidate to ride the DFA waiver train on 3-4 different organizations before finally landing somewhere. I wasn’t a believer in him before, and your breakdown of his stats first time through the order cements that thought. It doesn’t appear his stuff can play up to MLB standards. 

[gunnarthor]

I think Severino and maybe Funderburk will be put on the 40 man or should be. The Baddoo and Wells fiasco from last year will probably keep the FO a bit gun-shy to let those two be exposed. 

[RedneckRay]

10 hours ago, Rosterman said:

you really see any of Barraclough, Hamilton, Farrell, Garza, Gant, Jax, Stashak, Thielbar, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Gibaut, Albers, Vincent, even Coulombe being grabbed by ANY team and given a 40-man roster spot?

Yes, Hamilton and Thielbar. Hamilton has been lights out at AAA, and he features a upper 90s fastball that has touched 100. He also has a good breaking ball. Thielbar has been really affective against lefties, and both would absolutely get picked up by someone. I agree with Stashak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, and the rest though.

[LA VIkes Fan]

This is going to be a tough off season but I like your list with a tweak or two. Gordon definitely stays on the 40 man and I think will be on the MLB roster as a UTL starting the 2022 season. I think we need to keep Garza, Jr., Minaya, and Stashak. All are possible components of a quality bullpen although history tells us it's likely that only 1 or 2 will actually be that guy. I think all will be claimed through waivers or Rule 5 selected. Palacios is tougher because he passed through once already but I think last year's paly for him would give a SS needy team (and there's a lot of those) enough pause to select him. Jax isn't great so far but young guys with MLB starting experience and any level of potential don't grow on trees; we need to keep him at the expense of a fringe prospect if necessary. I would take the risk on losing the rest of your "Middling Veterans" and "Fringe Prospects" and frankly wouldn't even re-sign several of them to MiLB contracts.

So, to get to the point of the exercise, who would I protect? I'd start with your 26 locks, add all 5 of your Notable Rule 5 Eligible prospects for 31, and then add Minaya, Stashak, Gordon, Jax, Garza, Jr., and Polacios for 37, We need at least 2 open spots for a new Free Agent SS and a Free Agent SP, probably 3 so we can get 2 pitchers. I'm going to assume that any trade involves and even number of 40 man protectees.  I could see losing Stashak from the 40 man in the hope the injury would scare teams out of drafting him and replacing him with Vallimont or Thorpe if the FO really thinks one of those 2 can be a MLB starter (I don't). Also, let's not forget the Elephant in the room, Alex Colome. I think they are going to pick up his option and that means one of Minaya, Garza, Jr., and Stashak is out or we don't sign 2 FA pitchers. Probably Stashak gets left off. This leaves out Rooker  - possible prospect but we have other guys with the same or better skillset and he doesn't add anything, so he probably the 42nd or 43rd man - and some of the veteran relievers that I would hope to sign on MiLB deals after they pass through waivers like Coloumbe, VIncent, and Farrell.  

Th other Elephant in the room is how to do we re-sign Nelson Cruz, assuming we can and want to? I think the only way Cruz can come back is if Donaldson is traded. This season showed us that we need to DH spot for Donaldson if w want to get 135 or more games from him. I think it's a binary choice - (1) don't go after/re-sign or Cruz and have Arrraez, Donaldson, and maybe Miranda share 3B/DH, or (2) re-sign Cruz and trade Donaldson for low level prospects with upside and salary relief. In either scenario you have to either leave Sano at 1B or trade him (I think he stays), and Kirilloff is in LF because there is no room for Sano at DH more than occasionally.  I would keep Donaldson and not re-sign Cruz but I do think it's a close call and could live with either result.  

I appreciate the time that went into setting up the matrix here and enjoyed the exercise,. thanks for doing this., 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also note that players who have been outrighted before can elect free agency if you outright them again. I believe that applies to the following fringe Twins 40-man guys:

Kyle Barraclough
Danny Coulombe
Luke Farrell
Ian Gibaut
Juan Minaya
Rob Refsnyder

Similarly, players with 7+ seasons of minor league experience become minor league free agents if they're not on a 40-man roster during the offseason (i.e. outrighted):

Willians Astudillo
Jake Cave
John Gant
Kyle Garlick
Ralph Garza Jr.
Cody Stashak
Lewis Thorpe

Any of these guys would be able to shop around a bit for a different opportunity, even if they clear waivers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 10/4/2021 at 8:59 AM, stringer bell said:

Not to bag on Rooker, but what he brings to the table is exactly what the Twins already have too much of--a bat-first corner guy whose biggest strength is plus power. What the Twins need from their position players is more guys who can run and make contact and also play defense.

Same. I'm pretty disappointed that I think the Twins should release Rooker, I think he can be a competent maybe even good player, but I simply don't see him as a fit to fix the Twins unless they manage to move Sano or another corner guy.

If this team wants to improve, they can't field 3+ players like Rooker, which is what they have on the roster right now.

Despite his flaws, I could even make a case to give Rooker another chance if he wasn't such a damned butcher in the field but the lack of contact and significant offensive flaws coupled with his atrocious defense means I pass on him for 2022.

[Otto von Ballpark]

15 minutes ago, RedneckRay said:

Hamilton has been lights out at AAA, and he features a upper 90s fastball that has touched 100. He also has a good breaking ball.

Ian Hamilton is an interesting case. He's not on the 40-man, but he's not quite eligible for minor league free agency yet either (only 6 seasons of minor league experience, and outrighted only once too).

So Hamilton is controlled by the Twins into 2022, even if we don't add him to the 40-man roster this winter. He would be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft, however.

That's probably part of the reason he wasn't brought up for a late season audition.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Same. I'm pretty disappointed that I think the Twins should release Rooker, I think he can be a competent maybe even good player, but I simply don't see him as a fit to fix the Twins unless they manage to move Sano or another corner guy.

If this team wants to improve, they can't field 3+ players like Rooker, which is what they have on the roster right now.

Despite his flaws, I could even make a case to give Rooker another chance if he wasn't such a damned butcher in the field but the lack of contact and significant offensive flaws coupled with his atrocious defense means I pass on him for 2022.

Maybe they should stop using high picks on these guys. Is there a dead horse meme out there

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Maybe they should stop using high picks on these guys. Is there a dead horse meme out there

Pretty hard to make the case they've used their top picks efficiently on these guys, that's for sure.

On the other hand, there's Cavaco...

Yikes.

[roger]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

Mostly agree with the OP's projections, as things stand.

the adjustments are on the fringes: I think there's a real chance Javier & Vallimont get protected over Garza and Garlick. Garza at 27 as you note doesn't have a ton of upside and could sneak through waivers; he looks like one of those relievers that's pretty fungible from year to year. If he's hot, you can ride him for a while, but should also cut bait when he blows up. (which sucks for him to be so mercenary about it, but that's the reality with fringe bullpen guys). 

Javier plays SS at least adequately, so a rebuilding team might take a flyer on him in the Rule 5, whereas someone like Garlick is just a guy who could be re-signed to a minor league deal (and if not him, someone like him). Vallimont would probably get swept up by someone who would immediately put him in the 'pen and try and work on his command/control. Since I think he's almost a sure thing to get drafted in the Rule 5, I'd probably add him. That's where I see the "risk" on Rule V guys: upside arms with big K numbers that you could stash in a bullpen, and position players at a premium defensive spot: catcher, CF, and SS. A bad team could either run them out and hope they hit enough and a better team might just stash them on the bench for defense if it's good enough.

There's plenty of guys on the fringe though who could get dropped fairly painlessly when FA signings come flowing in.

Question on Javier.  Is he a minor league free agent this winter? 

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, roger said:

Question on Javier.  Is he a minor league free agent this winter? 

your go to resource.....

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

20 minutes ago, roger said:

Question on Javier.  Is he a minor league free agent this winter? 

I don't think so. Javier signed in 2015 but I don't think that year counts towards his minor league free agency, since he wasn't actually assigned to a roster until 2016. That would put him on track for minor league free agency following the 2022 season (if he's not on a 40-man roster by then, of course).

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Always an interesting time of year.

I suspect the Twins are higher, much higher, on Jax than most of you here.  I also suspect that there is almost no likelihood that he would pass thru the Rule 5 draft.  A starting pitcher with big league experience and minimal experience leading up to this year.  That is the pitcher many clubs would be drooling over.

I suspect the only prospects that are added are the top 5 preferred prospects.  To open spots for them and the three or four free agent signings, several names are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.  I will be surprised if either Thorpe or Smeltzer are on the Twins 40-man come December 1.

Jax was passed up on in the 2019 and 2020 Rule 5 drafts, so I actually don’t think the FO views him very highly, nor does the rest of the league. Maybe he is the next Liam Hendriks, but I don’t see much upside in him.

[Brandon]

Its a good thing we are not planning to sign FA with a full 40 man roster and all.

[nicksaviking]

Vallimont should have already been moved to the pen. So should have Jax, Barnes and probably even Sands. All the non-prospect pitchers who might profile as solid relievers should be relievers. They wasted that chance with Thorpe, they needlessly dabbled with Dobnak, It's a waste of time and a waste of talent. The ceiling for these guys is a #5 starter, just stop already. These are the types of guys who often DO become excellent bullpen arms; position them there ASAP. This team has NO #1. 2 or 3  starters for next year. Knock on wood Ryan can be a #4. Trying to identify the back of the rotation first and making it seem like it's remotely consequential seems like a slap in the face to the fans who had to sit through this season.

But this team will keep desperately trying to make a spot starter out of these guys even though that job can easily be filled by a free agent for 5M. Then when their service time becomes an issue, we get to sit back and see if they make something out of themselves in the pen for another team.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Vallimont should have already been moved to the pen. So should have Jax, Barnes and probably even Sands. All the non-prospect pitchers who might profile as solid relievers should be relievers. They wasted that chance with Thorpe, they needlessly dabbled with Dobnak, It's a waste of time and a waste of talent. The ceiling for these guys is a #5 starter, just stop already. These are the types of guys who often DO become excellent bullpen arms; position them there ASAP. This team has NO #1. 2 or 3  starters for next year. Knock on wood Ryan can be a #4. Trying to identify the back of the rotation first and making it seem like it's remotely consequential seems like a slap in the face to the fans who had to sit through this season.

But this team will keep desperately trying to make a spot starter out of these guys even though that job can easily be filled by a free agent for 5M. Then when their service time becomes an issue, we get to sit back and see if they make something out of themselves in the pen for another team.

Preach!

[Thegrin]

Re-sign Pineda. 

Send Rooker and reassign Larnach to AAA. (or trade them, if that is possible).

Keep Minaya.

Keep Miranda, Lewis, Winder, Enlow. I like your reasoning on keeping Palacios. 

Ryan, Jax & Barnes all have low 90's fastballs, but Barnes is a lefty.  Give Barnes some more time and he might be a competent starter. I am not a believer in Ryan.  I think hitters will adjust and then we will see if Ryan can make the adjustments and be able to pitch 6 innings consistently. Jax intrigues me. I suspect that over the winter he will make some adjustments to his mechanics and he will also be a competent starter. These 3 may be our back-end starters for the next few years.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Its a good thing we are not planning to sign FA with a full 40 man roster and all.

I made sure to note on my 40 man that the final 6 spots were open for FAs and other additions, but you don’t need to axe those guys before the acquisition happens.

[KirbyDome89]

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

His best asset is clearly his versatility in the field. Take that away and he's mostly useless as a DH. He would have been worth less than 0.5 WAR this season as the DH. You really want to put Arraez at DH and keep Sano in the field?

His best asset is his contact skill and ability to get on base, not his ability to play multiple positions at a slightly below average clip. I agree that .5 WAR from a DH isn't what you'd traditionally want, but in this lineup the Twins don't need a "masher," at the DH position. Arraez as a part time DH, which was the argument, is the best way to utilize the position for the Twins. 

[RonCoomersOPS]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Same. I'm pretty disappointed that I think the Twins should release Rooker, I think he can be a competent maybe even good player, but I simply don't see him as a fit to fix the Twins unless they manage to move Sano or another corner guy.

If this team wants to improve, they can't field 3+ players like Rooker, which is what they have on the roster right now.

Despite his flaws, I could even make a case to give Rooker another chance if he wasn't such a damned butcher in the field but the lack of contact and significant offensive flaws coupled with his atrocious defense means I pass on him for 2022.

Why on earth would we just release Rooker, especially at a time when it looks very likely that the NL will get a permant DH? That's the kind of knee-jerk move that gets an FO fired, IMO.

Maybe he's not a Twin next year, but he should have enough of a market that you should be able to trade him for a useful player of some kind.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

Why on earth would we just release Rooker, especially at a time when it looks very likely that the NL will get a permant DH? That's the kind of knee-jerk move that gets an FO fired, IMO.

There's nothing knee-jerk about releasing a no-position 27 year old player that hasn't hit well in 250 career MLB plate appearances.

Can Rooker turn out to be a decent player? Sure, of course, but I struggle to see a competitive Twins team with him on the roster unless the front office dedicates themselves to clearing out other corner players.

And if they clear out other corner players, good for them, then there's probably room for Rooker in Minnesota.

[RonCoomersOPS]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

There's nothing knee-jerk about releasing a no-position 27 year old player that hasn't hit well in 250 career MLB plate appearances.

Can Rooker turn out to be a decent player? Sure, of course, but I struggle to see a competitive Twins team with him on the roster unless the front office dedicates themselves to clearing out other corner players.

And if they clear out other corner players, good for them, then there's probably room for Rooker in Minnesota.

Because it's half a season worth of irregular MLB at bats backed by plenty of power in the minors? Because some guys (see Nelson Cruz) figure it out late?

Not saying he is the next Nelson Cruz by any means, or even that I am dead set on keeping him moving forward, but you would sure hate to have him figure it out at the plate with another team and get nothing in return. We let that happen once already, and Twins fans still complain about it almost 20 years later.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

Because it's half a season worth of irregular MLB at bats backed by plenty of power in the minors? Because some guys (see Nelson Cruz) figure it out late?

Not saying he is the next Nelson Cruz by any means, or even that I am dead set on keeping him moving forward, but you would sure hate to have him figure it out at the plate with another team and get nothing in return. We let that happen once already, and Twins fans still complain about it almost 20 years later.

Brent Rooker is not Nelson Cruz. He's not even Miguel Sano.

If the Twins can move Sano or someone else and keep Rooker, great... but where do you fit Rooker into this roster and who do you release to keep him? Let's make this more practical; tell me who you drop to keep Rooker on this roster in 2022.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

his ability to play multiple positions at a slightly below average clip

RField says he's above average at 3B and average at 2B. He's a good utility infielder. Put the crappy fielders at DH and keep the defense as good as possible.

[DJL44]

Sell Rooker to Japan. There are good hit, no field players available every offseason. There is so much loss aversion in this thread.

This is a 90 loss team. They SHOULD be replacing most of these guys with better players. If someone acquires competency 3 years from now, good for them.

[RonCoomersOPS]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Brent Rooker is not Nelson Cruz. He's not even Miguel Sano.

If the Twins can move Sano or someone else and keep Rooker, great... but where do you fit Rooker into this roster and who do you release to keep him? Let's make this more practical; tell me who you drop to keep Rooker on this roster in 2022.

You're probably right. I just don't have any interest in finding out that you are wrong while not getting _something_ back for him.

As for who I would drop to keep Rooker, maybe Astudillo. I'm not opposed to keeping him as a depth piece in St. Paul and letting a Kyle Garlick or Jake Cave go to keep a roster spot open for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This is a 90 loss team. They SHOULD be replacing most of these guys with better players. If someone acquires competency 3 years from now, good for them.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks Danchat for this exercise to balance the 40 man. It'll prove interesting how they'll do it. I'm all in for trading redundant players which are expendable. Arraez makes the most sense since his value is still high, Rooker 's value is down but could be used in conjunction with another trade to obtain needed starting pitching. the more we can trade from the 40 man the better.

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

RField says he's above average at 3B and average at 2B. He's a good utility infielder. Put the crappy fielders at DH and keep the defense as good as possible.

But they've already got guys that are better all around players at both of those positions.  Therein lies the problem.  While I agree completely with the last sentence, there's other context to consider with Arraez.

[DocBauer]

Not prepared to list keepers and non-keepers in full detail at this time, but do have a few thoughts.

Rooker has shown the ability to adapt at each level thus far, excluding ML at this point, save his productive SSS in 2020. But there is still some hope and potential there. I think he has to be kept over Garlik and Refsnyder, though I'd like both of them back on milb deals.

Jax is probably headed to the pen eventually. But there were a few good games and moments in his audition and I think he stays in the rotation for now and I think they keep him. 

Respectfully, in regard to Jax and someone like Vallimont, I believe you keep a potential SP AS a SP for as long as you can until you just feel certain he's not going to turn that corner. Never know when a kid will suddenly have a light come on and the control, or that extra pitch, just starts to play. At worst, more IP is more time to grow, learn, and harness his primary pitches.

The 40 man is going to be tough. I fully believe we are going to have a couple guys selected again this year. Doesn't mean they will necessarily be kept by the selecting teams, but we're going to see some guys picked. And I don't want to re-hash what happened last year in the rule 5 because that was pretty unusual. They key is guessing right as to who to keep.