Which internal/current options are in the 2022 Opening Day rotation?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ignoring any free agent acquisitions this offseason - though feel free to discuss them below, obviously - which internal options do you believe will be in the 2022 Opening Day rotation for the Twins?

While it's not a great solution, I personally think they'll be using at least three internal solutions for Opening Day 2022.

And... go! Tell us your expectations as of today!

[4twinsJA]

If I had to pick today with who is presently on roster, no FAs or trades. Ober, Ryan, Pineda, Gant, and Dobnak. Twins are not going to make the White Sox nervous with that rotation. Winder and Balazovic waiting in AAA, Jax in mix for emergency starts from AAA. SWR probably starts season in AA, not high on Strotman, given up on Smeltzer and Thorpe.

[Dodecahedron]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Ignoring any free agent acquisitions this offseason - though feel free to discuss them below, obviously - which internal options do you believe will be in the 2022 Opening Day rotation for the Twins?

While it's not a great solution, I personally think they'll be using at least three internal solutions for Opening Day 2022.

And... go! Tell us your expectations as of today!

Any name in the top 5 on the list is a possibility.  If an arm or two fall off before opening day, then we go further down the list.

Judging by the voting so far, it looks like we are all on the same page.  I'm not sure if that Albers vote is someone's sarcasm or not, though.  

[Dman]

I think at this point Ober and Pineda (if he stays) are locks.  I think Ryan has a good chance to be the third guy but it might be a battle between Ryan, Dobnak and Gant for that third spot.  If Gant can harness the control and keep his WHIP where it is he is a legit starter IMO.  I just don't know if he can do it.  I have seen so little of Ryan at the MLB level I don't know what to think at this point.  Dobnak has to build back some trust but I think he can do it. They all have their issues but one them should establish they can handle it.

I think the Twins will need to bring in two FA starters with Maeda out and on the mend and they need to keep depth for injuries.  It is a tough call right now but I think they almost have to start with three internal options as they can't buy a whole new staff.

[Vanimal46]

I would prefer only 1 or 2 slots occupied by a prospect on Opening Day 2022. Especially if the goal is to retool this winter, not rebuild. Dobnak and Ober have the inside track to claim the back end of the rotation, but you never know if they have a rough spring… I greatly prefer having Ryan and Jax in AAA as reinforcements than rely on them from day 1. Because if they fail, the alternative is worse, like waiver wire pick ups.

You can never have enough depth, as was proven this year. So it should be a busy winter for Falvey and Levine. 

To give context, here was all of the depth that Nick Nelson wrote about in late March. 

Projected Rotation: Kenta Maeda, José Berríos, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker

Depth: Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, Bailey Ober

Prospects: Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Blayne Enlow, Cole Sands

So please, raise the floor of competent innings pitched and get some veterans to help out next year. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

I think Ober is a lock barring injury. both Ryan and Dobnak will be on the roster next year if they preform even competently in September. I think the Twins would like to bring back Pineda and I think he wants to come back, so there's 4. I think, hope and pray the Twins bring in a quality not so old FA to head the group; someone like Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Jose Quintana, Jon Gray or Robbie Ray. None of them "young", but none of them within a year or two of being done like Greinke or Verlander. I hope we stay away from guys like Andrew Heany, Julio Teheran and Michael Wacha. While I'd like 2 from the first group, or one from the first and then and old head like Greinke or Verlander, I don't think the Twins will pony up the cash for 2 quality starters. History tells us that the most they would get is one of the first group or its equivalent and then an older starter like Alex Wood, Corey Kluber or Alex Cobb. That to me would be a mistake. 

I think its very important that Ober and Ryan get 25-30 starts next year, and that we give Dobnak enough rope to see if he's the good pitcher from before or the steaming pile he was this year. 12-15 starts maybe? We need to know if there's anything there on those 3 for 2023 and beyond. Then I'd try to get 10-15 starts at the MLB level for guys like WInder, Strotman, and Balazovic. Woods-Richardson too if he's far enough along. At least one or two of those 4 will be injured so there's room. Even if they are all healthy there will be plenty of available starts for them with the inevitable 1-2 months' worth of IL stints for Pineda, ineffectiveness from others, 10 day IL stints with various maladies from guys who start the season in the rotation, a mid-year "shutdown" for Ober and Ryan to avoid burn out, etc. 2022 should be the year we find 3-4 internal starters for 2023-2026. that's the key, not trying to coax a decent year from 34+ year old journeymen or guys whose ceiling is a "No. 5 type starter" (Jax, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Albers).    

[Mike Sixel]

Too many, is my guess. Ober, Ryan, Gant, Dobnak. That's too many on opening day, imo. 

[TheLeviathan]

Ober, Ryan, Pineda, Trade Acquisition, Free Agent

With Dobnak and Gant and probably another FA as the depth guys in the mix. Duran, Woods-Richardson, and Balazovic getting a lot of time in the back half of the year.  The other young guys I think are September call-ups at the earliest.

I think it's time to see Thorpe and Smeltzer as bullpen guys and see if they can hack that position.

[Brock Beauchamp]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Too many, is my guess. Ober, Ryan, Gant, Dobnak. That's too many on opening day, imo. 

Yeah, I'm fine with using three of those guys but not four. And probably not Gant.

I won't LIKE using three of those guys but I will be fine with it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think it's time to see Thorpe and Smeltzer as bullpen guys and see if they can hack that position.

Frankly, I think it's time to show Thorpe the door unless he walks into his next bullpen session and hits 92mph.

[Brock Beauchamp]

By the way, it's pretty funny that I just named the guys in the order they came to me and the voting looks like this... I BIASED THE SURVEY.

[Sousy]

The order you listed is probably close to what many of us already think.

I also would really like to see the Strotman / Balazovich / Duran, etc, list of prospects improve and/or return to full health and contribute down the stretch to the MLB club, even if it is as depth pieces for stretches of the season. 

OFFSEASON PREDICTION: We're going to trade a position player we really like for more AAA potential pitching prospects.

[Vanimal46]

5 minutes ago, Sousy said:

. 

OFFSEASON PREDICTION: We're going to trade a position player we really like for more AAA potential pitching prospects.

Concur. This winter is the time to choose between Polanco and Arraez for full time 2B duties. Arraez isn’t a utility guy and Polanco is no longer a SS except in emergencies. 

If we’re heading into the season with 3 or more inexperienced starters, that screams rebuild to me. Unfortunately that means selling Polanco at his peak… 

[Squirrel]

I think only 2 are certain as of right now ... Ober and Ryan ... but ... depends on the rest of the year and ST. Even though Gant has done ... respectably okay ... I don't see him starting next year. I would have added Winder, maybe, to your list ... I think he has the same chance as some you have on there (i.e. Balazovic and Strotman ... neither of whom I see beginning the season in the Twins rotation, along with Winder).

Bottom line ... I can be a cynic and say 4. But, honestly, I just don't know.

[Sousy]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Concur. This winter is the time to choose between Polanco and Arraez for full time 2B duties. Arraez isn’t a utility guy and Polanco is no longer a SS except in emergencies. 

If we’re heading into the season with 3 or more inexperienced starters, that screams rebuild to me. Unfortunately that means selling Polanco at his peak… 

My thought is that we'll trade some corner depth (LF/RF, 1B/3B) for pitching prospects.  I don't see it really being Polanco or Arraez just because the Twins really seem to lack options when it comes to 2B/SS/CF both on the MLB club and in the minors. I think Polanco stays where he is at 2B and Arraez is a depth piece there or in the corners.

On the other hand, when Kirilloff returns next Spring - where does he fit? Would the Twins look to move a Sano / Kepler to bring in a Kirilloff / Miranda / Larnach? 

I'll note that I have a particular emotional attachment I can't explain to Kepler / Buxton / Polanco / Rogers. There could be a perfectly logical reason to trade any of them but I'll still be mad.

[TheLeviathan]

39 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Frankly, I think it's time to show Thorpe the door unless he walks into his next bullpen session and hits 92mph.

Hence working him as a reliever.  Maybe if we try to turn him into a specialist he can revive his career and play a role.  Pretending he's a starter is an utter waste of time though.

[Mike Sixel]

42 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, I'm fine with using three of those guys but not four. And probably not Gant.

I won't LIKE using three of those guys but I will be fine with it.

From my brain to your fingers....agreed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

47 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, I'm fine with using three of those guys but not four. And probably not Gant.

I won't LIKE using three of those guys but I will be fine with it.

Maybe not even “fine with it” but I’ve become so used to disappointment with level of outside investment by the Twins (regardless of who the head honcho is) that I’ve conditioned myself to expect less than the basic necessity of competing. It’s always trying to catch lightning in a bottle… sigh…

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

Maybe not even “fine with it” but I’ve become so used to disappointment with level of outside investment by the Twins (regardless of who the head honcho is) that I’ve conditioned myself to expect less than the basic necessity of competing. It’s always trying to catch lightning in a bottle… sigh…

It would be unheard of? for a team to bring in three really good starters from the outside in one year, I'd think (unless one was a total reclamation project that got lucky)......

Also, I'm really baffled by these posts (not you only, clearly)....they won the division the last two years. That's pretty competitive, I'd think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

48 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Hence working him as a reliever.  Maybe if we try to turn him into a specialist he can revive his career and play a role.  Pretending he's a starter is an utter waste of time though.

See, and I don’t think it matters. If he’s throwing 88mph, he probably won’t make it as a reliever either. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

43 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It would be unheard of? for a team to bring in three really good starters from the outside in one year, I'd think (unless one was a total reclamation project that got lucky)......

Also, I'm really baffled by these posts (not you only, clearly)....they won the division the last two years. That's pretty competitive, I'd think.

They’ve been competitive, no doubt, and Kenta Maeda was a quintessential component to that success.

2021’s free agent acquisitions were not an outlier, they were the MO of this organization for my entire life. Sometimes they catch Jack Morris in a bottle, usually they catch Shoemaker in a bottle.

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, Sousy said:

My thought is that we'll trade some corner depth (LF/RF, 1B/3B) for pitching prospects.  I don't see it really being Polanco or Arraez just because the Twins really seem to lack options when it comes to 2B/SS/CF both on the MLB club and in the minors. I think Polanco stays where he is at 2B and Arraez is a depth piece there or in the corners.

On the other hand, when Kirilloff returns next Spring - where does he fit? Would the Twins look to move a Sano / Kepler to bring in a Kirilloff / Miranda / Larnach? 

I'll note that I have a particular emotional attachment I can't explain to Kepler / Buxton / Polanco / Rogers. There could be a perfectly logical reason to trade any of them but I'll still be mad.

I understand the emotional attachment. Losing Berrios made me mad too. No doubt there’s a gluttonous amount of corner OF on roster. I’d love to see Kirilloff settle in at 1B and fill in occasionally at LF/RF. Sano could certainly be shopped. Donaldson too if someone’s willing to take on more than 50% of his remaining salary. 

Circling back to the original topic, most of these maneuvers will be determined by their success or failure acquiring pitching. Hopefully they don’t strike out on their FA targets, because then we might see a change in strategy to sell the core position players we discussed…

[puckstopper1]

48 minutes ago, Sconnie said:

They’ve been competitive, no doubt, and Kenta Maeda was a quintessential component to that success.

As was Jose Berrios.

[Nashvilletwin]

At the moment a 2022 SP lineup of Ober, Ryan, Gant, Dobnak and Jax (I have not given up on Jax as #5 at the back of the rotation) would run us about $6MM.  We have at least a handful of additional young starters able to be part of the rotation as needed. Give them innings and put the cash into building a shutdown pen.

That’s how a small/mid market team like the Twins can best compete in the modern game. 

[Linus]

The problem with any of these scenarios is that we are fielding an entire rotation of #4 or 5 starters. Anybody counting on the minor league pipeline to solve this problem is going to be disappointed. 

[Rosterman]

I am so disappointed that we aren't getting any looksee at Duran or Balazovic. 

 

I will also be sad if Strotman isn't given a major league look. He should be on tap for such a thing. As much as my favorite Jax.

 

Smeltzer and Thorpe have worked themselves out of the picture. Are they worth keeping on anything but minor league depth?

 

Enlow will be rehabbing, Canterino will be at AA, Sands will be at AAA. But as this year with Ober, Barnes and Jax shows, you never know. Maybe Bryan Sammons will be the diamond in the surprise box.

 

Whatever the solution, anyone on the 40-man better be ready to pitch at least a few games in 2022, otherwise...why.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

See, and I don’t think it matters. If he’s throwing 88mph, he probably won’t make it as a reliever either. 

I meant that a move to the pen has shown to help some guys increase velocity.

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I meant that a move to the pen has shown to help some guys increase velocity.

I still don't think 2mph will help Thorpe much from the pen. The problem is that he lost 2-4mph for some reason and no one has really said why it happened.

[Danchat]

Ober should be a lock and I think Ryan is good enough to be in the rotation from the onset. Other than that, fill the rotation with FAs and trade options. Dobnak, Jax, and others on the 40 man can function as depth.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 hours ago, Danchat said:

Ober should be a lock and I think Ryan is good enough to be in the rotation from the onset. Other than that, fill the rotation with FAs and trade options. Dobnak, Jax, and others on the 40 man can function as depth.

The problem is "do they have enough 40-man space to hold that many starters?" Remember, guys like Balazovic, Duran, and Strotman are also on the 40-man, though I suspect Strotman is converted to a reliever so that problem solves itself.

Still, this is a lengthy list of "depth" and many of these players will need to be exposed at the end of the season:

Dobnak
Jax
Barnes
Thorpe
Smeltzer
Duran
Balazovic
Gant
Albers

This is part of the reason why I think the team will open the season with three internal options in the rotation. My biggest hope is that they go bigger with the front of the rotation and make a splash there instead of buying two middling guys who have a higher chance to implode a la JA Happ.