The Twins Shouldn't Spend (Much) On Starting Pitching This Offseason

[Johnny Ringo]

I have to chuckle when people say Falvey/Levine deserve a hall pass because they won the Central Division a couple of times It was, by far, the worst division in baseball . We should view this in the same way as winning our neighborhood bowling league. Congrats! You bested the gal down the street with the bad hip and Pete, from next door, who is just there to get away from his wife. The value of winning the Central? We saw that in the play-offs.

We have no chance to win in 2022 and no real stomach to compete for talent at market prices. The Berrios trade ratified both of these ideas. If the front office says otherwise it is only because they are rightfully terrified of the gate next year.   

I agree that we should not spend on a high-priced FO pitcher next year. To what  end? To win 70 games rather than 65? The good news is that I have every faith that this ownership group will religiously follow my advice.

[Whitey333]

Great comments by all!  I think we have a lot of people here that have a good plan in managing personnel and money.  My question or concern is there appears no current plan or direction from the FO.  I also don't think Baldelli is the man to keep as manager. His team shows no enthusiasm and no fundamentals.  And Pohlads seem content with keeping it cheap.  Remember there is no salary cap in MLB.  Ownership can approve almost any budget they want.  My guess is the payroll will be significantly reduced and we will see more of the same.  I surely hope I am wrong.  It makes for a long summer watching your favorite team serve as bottom feeders.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 

If a full rebuild must occur then people should wonder why and how the current core fell so far, so fast. A full rebuild would ruin season ticket holder sales among other financial issues. The Saints have begun to see a decline in interest as their team fades. Will those of you who want to see prospects pay to go watch a 120 loss team or even watch/listen to every game? My opinion is that a few trades and a few free agent signings can work with the young prospects to make the Twins competitive in 2022. 

 

Retooling for 1 year and a complete rebuild are two very different things.    Pretending we can rebuild a complete rotation in one year is a good way to prolong the process.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Boom Boom said:

I don't disagree with the article, but...

If you were Byron Buxton, and you turned down the last contract offer, would you be more inclined to re-up now in a rebuild?

I think if the Twins go this way, they need to trade Buxton.  

A. Are we trading Rogers / Duffey / Thielbar / Polanco / Kepler / Arraez / Garver / Donaldson and Sano.  If not, how is this a rebuild?

B. Many players care 1st about money and 2nd playing where they are comfortable.  There are plenty of players with better track records than Buxton who stayed with a team because they simply preferred to stay. Players don't like their lives disrupted and a dollar in MN is the same as a dollar anywhere else, tax rates not withstanding.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

A. Are we trading Rogers / Duffey / Thielbar / Polanco / Kepler / Arraez / Garver / Donaldson and Sano.  If not, how is this a rebuild?

B. Many players care 1st about money and 2nd playing where they are comfortable.  There are plenty of players with better track records than Buxton who stayed with a team because they simply preferred to stay. Players don't like their lives disrupted and a dollar in MN is the same as a dollar anywhere else, tax rates not withstanding.

 

• Rogers, Sano, Donaldson - They wanted to but injuries or performance prevented it.
• Kepler, Buxton - They were actively fielding offers. Buxton very likely would have been traded if healthy.

The only reason I say this is there absolutely will be some players moving around this offseason. I'd be totally shocked if Arraez, Donaldson, Sano and Polanco were all on the team next year. Since I believe the universal DH is virtually assured, I expect some increased interest in Sano which could allow Donaldson to slide to DH if the Twins can't find an interested partner. There are just too many moving pieces right now.

When it comes to the original intent of the article, though, I cannot disagree more that one year contracts aren't bad. The Twins, over the past decade, have spent what it would cost for 2 premium starters on mediocre to bad short term contract arms almost every single year. In effect, the Twins are spending long term Ace starter money, just on a cumulative total of disposable, short term arms which they wind up regretting putting on the roster to begin with.

 

[Thebigalguy]

We’ll reasoned but I don’t buy it. Life is too short to write off 2022 before it starts. Sign Buxton. Re-educate Kepler and Sano. With pitching, promote, innovate, and let the competition begin. Falvine need to earn their keep after this year. Put them on notice. Win or pink slip.

[TwinsDr2021]

Personally if they want to go young pitchers, they for sure will have to sign some one year vets to fill innings, currently I have seen the names of around 15 rookie (or Jax, Ober, Dodnak) names mentioned, can a major league team really carry 15 rookie type starting pitchers on their 40 man? Seems unlikely, sure some will get hurt, but that mean other retreads or rookies filling in.

And then why sign Buxton over the winter, because if these pitchers don't pan out, what good is he to have around on a rebuild?

what if the likes of Balazovi,c, Duran, Strotman, Ryan, etc.. have years like Ober had this year, does that guarantee anything for 2023? To me, it means we have some good depth and can sign a high end Free Agent but it kind of makes 2023 a crap shoot also, but I think they can sign a free agent this year.

To me this off season and 2022 will show if this FO is around in 2023, I hope Rocco is gone after this season, but that is another topic.

[LastOnePicked]

27 minutes ago, Thebigalguy said:

Sign Buxton. Re-educate Kepler and Sano.

Really good post, and a good counterargument. I guess I just don't see any of these happening. I mean, if you couldn't extend Buxton or "fix" Kepler or Sano by now, it just ain't gonna happen.

I've accepted that the 2019+ window of contention has closed. Only a massive offseason FA spending spree (for players who have something left in the tank and magically stay healthy) can get this team back to contention. NOTHING in this franchise's history suggests that this is even a remote possibility. We don't overpay, and we hear time and time again that top free agents don't want to be here.

So, from my perspective, it's total rebuild time. Again, sadly.

[DJL44]

What else are they going to spend money on? Starting pitching is their biggest need. They're probably not going to sign a shortstop to a big contract with Royce Lewis in the minors. The rest of the lineup is average or better at their position.

The pitching staff has one pitcher with a WAR above 0.8 - Bailey Ober. They need as many as 10 pitchers on the 40 man roster to be replaced with better talent to contend. Of course they need to obtain some of that pitching through free agency.

[mikelink45]

20 hours ago, Rosterman said:

They never really do.

 

Giving a Donaldson contract to a starting pitcher? They had their chance with Berrios, maybe last off-season. 

 

And, why would someone come to Minnesota...now.

 

Look at expensive arbitration pitchers that other teams may not want to keep (Boyd at Detroit). The Athletics have pitchers they don't want to pay. Even as a one-year rental, it all depends what you need to give up in trade.

 

Otherwise, comeback pitchers (been there, done that).

 

Albers, Gant, Thorpe, Smeltzer, DObnak with Ober in the wings is the 2022 rotation. My call! St. Paul has Stortman, Ryan, Sands, Jax, Barnes.

That is the worst looking Major League rotation I could think of.

[Dodecahedron]

This is the right approach.

[jkcarew]

Interesting and thoughtful take.

[rv78]

"The Twins shouldn't spend much on starting pitching this offseason".

Are you sure you didn't mean to say, the Twins won't spend much on starting pitching this offseason? 

[operation mindcrime]

On 9/5/2021 at 2:26 AM, Mike Sixel said:

The young pitchers need a mentor or two..... They need at least one veteran, probably two. Then use the rest of the staff to rotate guys in.....

J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker!!!!!!

[Vanimal46]

If the Twins match the payroll total of the last couple years, they’ll have around $55-60 million to spend. Their biggest needs (SS and SP) are the largest ticket items in free agency. 

I’m in agreement with the author that the top priority should be signing one of the elite SS free agents long term. Then look to mid-tier SPs such as Jon Gray, Alex Wood, Pineda, etc. to raise the floor of the pitching staff. 

[prouster]

On 9/4/2021 at 1:05 PM, Original_JB said:

Think about who is doing the advertising.  It is known as "selling hope", and the Twins have that skill running in perpetual motion. For all the touting, truly, how many "MLB Stars" have been developed and come out of the Twins organization over the last 25 years?

Indeed, think about who is doing the advertising. It’s not the Twins. 

[DocSavage]

All I have to say is Hahahahahahahahahaha.. Fire the Dynamic Duo... Why: lets look at the unmentionables: The Bullpen...  not only does the team need 5 starters.. it needs at just as much help in the bullpen... and While some like to pencil prospects in as the future.. i expect that most of them will fail..Why.. because if you look at reality most prospects fail... i don't expect Larnach ( Lurch) to make it.. he is DH material at best..  and  the notion  of looking at 2023 and going crazy and thinking they'll be Stocked with Players.. barring any extension.. they have no Buxton in CF.. They will Have to Hope Sayno is worth the option they have, Rogers is a free agent, and so is Duffey.. at the end of next year... so Who will be SS? Lewis? can he hit?... Who is in CF? will Kepler be traded or hit like it is 2019?.. Donald Duck will be DH by then if not traded.. Whose 3b?... Where are all the prospects they should be training right now?.. why are they playing out the season with Simmons? ( great glove..and hands... love watching the guy.. cut him a check.. get a prospect up here..).. Yes the Twins are in full rebuild and if history is our guide..  those of us still alive can discuss this after the rebuild in 2031... when the Twins will be on the way to their 3rd World series. championship...  or Po'lad could open the valve on the cash cow of Target field and it could happen quicker... say 5 years instead of 10... but once again.. history as our guide... check out 2012-2021..

[RpR]

1 minute ago, DocSavage said:

 Yes the Twins are in full rebuild and if history is our guide..  those of us still alive can discuss this after the rebuild in 2031... when the Twins will be on the way to their 3rd World series. championship...  or Po'lad could open the valve on the cash cow of Target field and it could happen quicker... say 5 years instead of 10... but once again.. history as our guide... check out 2012-2021..

Yes lets return to the hey-days of 1971-1980 ; a .500 season is a good year and 1 million fans is fantastic years.