Envisioning a Good Twins Rotation in 2022 (For Real!)

[MMMordabito]

"Names in this category include Corey Kluber, Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb, Andrew Heaney, and others."

Other than the apparently ageless Morton (who I doubt will sign with the Twins), that looks like a group of names on that back side of 30 that Twins FO will consider #2/3 starters and try to sell as such to the fans.  Kluber won't last through mid-May.  Cobb and Heaney would be making about 10 times the salary to be no more effective than the internal options.  Cobb probably wouldn't last the whole season either.

[ToddlerHarmon]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Nick’s plan sounds a lot like the Padres plan

It also sounds like 2000-2010 Twins. Which had a ceiling of getting to the playoffs, but not the horses to make a run.

If Falvine are going to show they can build a pitching pipeline, 2022 is a good time to start testing it

As far as still having a lineup to compete if the pipeline delivers, it seems you have the following expiration dates:

Donaldson - 2022

Buxton/Polanco/Sano/Kepler/Garver - 2024

If you don't make that, it's on to rebuilding with Arraez/Kiriloff/Jeffers/Larnach/Lewis/Martin/Miranda/Celestino, et al

 

[tony&rodney]

The sad 2021 Twins record has Twins Daily in full offseason mode, a practice most all of us have indulged in too frequently in an attempt to maintain an interest in our Twins. August was a pretty good month and we still have a month to go in this season. The offense was a dud versus the Cubs and I hope Baldelli and braintrust get some solid advice from Brad Radke for this weekend's tests in St. Petersburg. But, yah, so much thinking about possibilities for 2022 and mine are solely focused on an immediate return to relevance. My guesses and wild tosses are just that, but they represent a hope that the Twins win at least 85 games in 2022 and that may be very difficult as other teams in our division are vastly improved since 2020.

The pitching needs attention and my plan is to make a couple of trades and at least a couple of free agent additions to the mound. I am not privy to what any free agent will cost but am budgeting $50 million for two arms. My targets are Thor Syndergaard on a one or two year deal and Carlos Rodon for four or five years. These are both gambles and substitutions of Stroman, Gausman, or Ray would also work. A trade I suggested last winter aimed to bring in Sandy Alcantara and now I want Max Meyer too. I am offering Miami a choice of one of our catchers, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, and a minor league pitcher like Matt Canterino. No idea if the Marlins are interested ... or the Twins. Next, I target a reliever, either free agent or trade. Here, I am stumped to a degree. Does Milwaukee have an interest in Miguel Sano. Maybe a Sano, Arraez, Duffey, and lower level ml pitcher for Josh Hader and Eric Lauer. Don't hold me to fast to this idea - I'm just trying to build a pitching staff without waiting three years.

Finally, I turn to offense and throw money at Starling Marte - $18 million per for 4 years and try to coax Ehire Adrianza back for $2 million. My team still needs a shortstop too and the budget is near $155 million.

This plan may not be feasible. I absolutely believe that a $150-160 million payroll for the roster is practical. A bigger challenge is making the contacts and having conversations with agents, players, and other teams about their needs, wants, and the possibilities to close on a few important trades and free agent signings. A player like Marte may be risky but his defense, speed, and contact skills change the dynamic of our lineup. Concerns about injuries in the future are not conducive to building a winning team. Competition will improve in the AL Central next season and a quick ambush early in the offseason may be the path back to relevance. I can not see spending more money on players like Simmons, Happ, and the sort. I like Big Mike but it is time to move on from him unless he signs really cheap. Perhaps if the Twins management cannot identify teams to trade with or free agents to sign, it may be time to clear the deck. A rebuild at this time would really cost the team financially. A good team at $160 million will bring in a profit but a bad team at $90 million will lose money. Last word - so many thoughts and ideas and hopes out there and I want the Twins to return to competitive baseball (85 at least) in 2022.

[LA VIkes Fan]

I like Nick’s ideas but not adding Kluber, Morton, Cobb, Heany, etc. There’s no real upside there other than hoping to catch a one career year IMHO. I would go all in on the younger guys in the system for next year in a rotation anchored by a top tier guy like Stroman and a re-signed Pineda. I think both Ober and Ryan start next year in the rotation and are given a long leash. Dobnak starts the year in the rotation on a shorter leash and we have the rest of the Strotman/Winder/Blaze/Jax etc. group for depth. We’re not going to have internally developed mid-rotation or better starters for 2023 unless we give guys like Ober and Ryan 30 start next year. Those two look like the best bets right now, and there may be others who show us next year with those two are showing us this year. We cannot develop our own rotation by signing stopgap vets. That’s what you do and you don’t have enough younger options to develop. I do think we have enough younger options.

I do recognize that probably means that it will be difficult for us to contend for a playoff spot next year unless the playoffs are expanded. I still see enough there to get us into the 85+ win category, with significant improvement by year end and a good outlook for 2023. And that’s what I see as the best approach; use 2022 as the pitching development year to get us to being a real contender by 2023.

 

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Did you see the post I was responding to? It said "it's going to be a lost year. "

And I said "If the FO thinks this way", I didn't say I thought it was a lost year and I don't believe it should be.

And if they think 2022 is a lost year and time to get all the prospects up, then they wouldn't have sustained success, that would be two lost years, and if those prospects don't turn out as advertised, 2023 and beyond could be lost as well.

But if your opinion is go cheap next year because the year is lost, and don't think they should trade everybody, that's great because it is your opinion, I wouldn't call you simplistic or crude.

Missed this the first time I posted.

I said "put a contending team on the field consistently" and you turned that into "put a contending team on the field every year".

In my simplistic/crude mind: put a contending team on the field consistently = sustained success

 

Whenever I present to a client’s senior management team or board of directors, I prepare for their likely questions and responses.  In this case, I imagine going before the board and presenting a future state plan and concluding we should proceed with a focus on contending next year.

Point 1 – We need to replace the entire starting pitching staff and a couple RPs.  Here is my plan complete with FA acquisitions and trades.  Their response …. 
Is it feasible to replace an entire SP staff to the point of building a contender?  No, extremely low odds.

How often is this feat accomplished and how much will it cost.  Never, any team in this position retools in some form taking 1-5 years, longer in the case of many teams throughout history.  $75-80M will BP additions.  What are the odds of it working out?  Very Very Small

Will this plan facilitate sustained success?  No.  It will put a better product on the field next year at the expense of giving prospects playing time at the MLB level.  We will also have to trade away prospects that would improve our future outlook.

Point 2 – If all the acquisitions work out which has about a 15% probability, we would still need to resolve our SS issue so we need to spend another $25M.  Then, we need to hope Donaldson stays healthy and productive, Kirilloff comes back from injury and Sano is more like the last month than the previous 4 months.  Oh and we need Buxton to stay healthy and produce like he did in April.

To which they respond … How long would or relative position change if you took a year to focus on development and could you put a reasonably good product on the field during the interim?  

We have about 10 SPs that are ready or could be by ready for the ML level by 2023.  By 2023 we could field 4-5 solid SPs.  Then, we could add a top of the rotation SP in 2023.  We could trade Donaldson and transition Miranda in 2022.  We would take a hit on his salary but it would position us to sign a top SP and retain Buxton.  We have BP prospects and some SPs that could be used to solidify a very good BO by 2023.  It is also likely Martin Lewis will be ready by 2023 but we would need at least one roster spot if not two to get them transitioned.  We could also trade Arraez for a SS that will be ready by 2023 if we are not confident in Lewis / Martin at SS.  

To which they respond … you believe the former strategy is better than the latter.  Yes, we need to take a shot at contention even though the likelihood of success is extremely low.  To which they responds … please get out of our board room, we will not be needing your services in the future.
 

[Johnny Ringo]

I know we want to be optimists but............

We had a solid 1 and 1/2 and we traded him away. Why? Was he injury prone? No. He never missed a start. Was he out of shape? No. He was a model of fitness. Was he a problem off the field? No. He seems a rock-solid citizen. Too old? No. He was entering his prime. Why then? Why?  Because he had the audacity of seeking a market wage a year out.  

Given this, why in the world then would we compete in free agency to truly replace him in the rotation? We won't. We will find another candidate for the Wes Johnson School of Redemption.   

While I am being sunny, before we decide Ober is a fixture going forward; lets all recall that he has throw exactly 74 innings of 4.00 ERA major league ball. Don't put a deposit down on the parade yet.

I am not sure what the question is but Randy Dobnak is not the answer.

Hope springs eternal in Twins' land. It's all the front office has to sell.

Is there a chance the starting rotation will be adequate in 2022? Sure. But as Damon Runyon said " The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet."  

 

 

[RpR]

Twins need one capable of being a 20 game winner (still my standard for best of the good).

[TwinsDr2021]

42 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Whenever I present to a client’s senior management team or board of directors, I prepare for their likely questions and responses.  In this case, I imagine going before the board and presenting a future state plan and concluding we should proceed with a focus on contending next year.

The question I would have and you didn't address, was.

You have told us your plan the last few years was sustained success, now you are coming to me with a plan for sustained success in the future. You asked us to spend 92 million on Donaldson, 6.25 on Colume, 30 million on Sano, 2 on Shoemaker and 8 on Happ to get us though this year, and you traded our best pitching prospect (Graterol) for a veteran pitcher.

The only unexpected things that happened this year that affects next year are: Maeda is lost for next year and some of the prospects got hurt that you thought MIGHT be able to help us next year. What happens next year if Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Woods Richardson, Ober and others get hurt again or aren't as good as you are expecting? Are you going to come to me next year and tell me you need punt on 2023? If 2022 is a more than likely a lost year and 2023 is based on prospects, why not cut my loses and trade Donaldson, Sano, Kepler and Polanco. The only one of that group that has a contract for 2024 is Kepler?

 

[In My La Z boy]

Envisioning a good rotation in 2022 is a dream of mine as well. Reality is - on paper, last winter envisioning a good rotation in 2021 seemed more plausible. A 1/2/3 of Berrios/Maeda and Pineda sounded a whole lot better than the potential 2022 rotation of Ober/?/?
Seems as we look at it today, the foundation of our vision for the 2022 rotation is hope and good fortune. Hopefully we hit on 2 or 3 of the young prospects. 2021 was a bust on that front (Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe). Hopefully we hit on the FA market. 2021 was a bust on that front (Shoemaker and Happ). 

Hope and Good Fortune. Here we go again.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The question I would have and you didn't address, was.

You have told us your plan the last few years was sustained success, now you are coming to me with a plan for sustained success in the future. You asked us to spend 92 million on Donaldson, 6.25 on Colume, 30 million on Sano, 2 on Shoemaker and 8 on Happ to get us though this year, and you traded our best pitching prospect (Graterol) for a veteran pitcher.

The only unexpected things that happened this year that affects next year are: Maeda is lost for next year and some of the prospects got hurt that you thought MIGHT be able to help us next year. What happens next year if Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Woods Richardson, Ober and others get hurt again or aren't as good as you are expecting? Are you going to come to me next year and tell me you need punt on 2023? If 2022 is a more than likely a lost year and 2023 is based on prospects, why not cut my loses and trade Donaldson, Sano, Kepler and Polanco. The only one of that group that has a contract for 2024 is Kepler?

 

If it makes you feel better, they failed.  The Pohlad’s know the plan failed.  Reasonable plans / actions fail quite frequently in MLB.  Players get injured and good players underperform.  There is an endless list of high dollar FAs and trades that fail.  In other businesses, we expect certain failures as well.  What gets people fired is the pursuit of questionable judgement because it’s expeditious or utilizes strategies with a low probability of success.  

The strategy going forward should not be based on the failure of the previous plan.  It should be based on the merit of the plan in terms of achieving the goal of sustained success.  The continued employment of Falvey and Levine should be a product of their ability to bring forth a plan to come back from the current failure.  I would hope the Pohlad’s will ask for a concept plan at the end of the season.  They should let them go if they do not believe in the plan and vision Falvey / Levine present.  If they believe in the plan, they should allow them to manage that plan.  If it fails, it would suggest they are unable to execute and they should be let go.  
 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The question I would have and you didn't address, was.

You have told us your plan the last few years was sustained success, now you are coming to me with a plan for sustained success in the future. You asked us to spend 92 million on Donaldson, 6.25 on Colume, 30 million on Sano, 2 on Shoemaker and 8 on Happ to get us though this year, and you traded our best pitching prospect (Graterol) for a veteran pitcher.

The only unexpected things that happened this year that affects next year are: Maeda is lost for next year and some of the prospects got hurt that you thought MIGHT be able to help us next year. What happens next year if Winder, Duran, Balazovic, Strotman, Woods Richardson, Ober and others get hurt again or aren't as good as you are expecting? Are you going to come to me next year and tell me you need punt on 2023? If 2022 is a more than likely a lost year and 2023 is based on prospects, why not cut my loses and trade Donaldson, Sano, Kepler and Polanco. The only one of that group that has a contract for 2024 is Kepler?

 

Yah, a little problem. Right? So maybe the Twins are in it too far to totally rebuild right now. This might be the best argument yet for a $160 million budget.

Tear it down? Donaldson and Sano may have a market, but it is not certain. Kepler and Polanco can return prospects and Buxton could bring a haul, maybe. There is plenty of angst and there are holes to fill. What is the cost of a five year rebuilding process? I'm having a hard time seeing where the Twins can afford to rebuild with their current prospects plus a few added in a tear down. That leaves rebuilding on the fly, through trades and free agency. Get to .500 and sprinkle in the prospects who show talent.

Management will follow their own ideas but a shortage of money is not one of the constraints the Twins will face this offseason. They will, however, face stiff competition for players from any number of teams, all of whom look to be better in 2022.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

 

Tear it down? Donaldson and Sano may have a market, but it is not certain. Kepler and Polanco can return prospects and Buxton could bring a haul, maybe. There is plenty of angst and there are holes to fill. What is the cost of a five year rebuilding process?

 

Empty stands which will bother the Pohlads greatly, plus to go from a 90 loss season to another 90 loss season would be obtuse on its best day.

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd only bring in two from outside the org at this point.

Free agent ( a 2/3, not a 5)
Trade (a 2/3, not a 4/5)
Ober
Ryan or someone
Someone else from inside the org

Lots of guys in AAA that are young for a change.....

I think bringing in a third from the outside just means that a lot of high upside arms spend next year in the minors.....rather than getting time in MN.

I tend to agree, though signing a 2/3 might be too tall an order for this team, in which case I'd settle for a 3/4 in their place. Someone similar to Pineda a couple of years ago.

Which means getting the trade right for a good 2/3 becomes of the utmost importance.

While we've only seen one start, I'm close to pencilling in Joe Ryan to start 2022. Not because I have so much faith in him but because the Twins need competent pitching at the league minimum and that won't happen if these guys aren't given a shot to pitch in Minnesota.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Twins need one capable of being a 20 game winner (still my standard for best of the good).

It's becoming more likely by that day that zero pitchers will win 20 games this season. Basically, the only one with a shot is Urias and it's going to require perfection through five starts to accomplish the feat, as I doubt he'll get a sixth start (currently at 15 wins).

[old nurse]

18 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Ober is it, for now. Which is WHY is is important that the Twins also let Strotman and Balazovic also get starts at the major league level in 2021. Gives them a good idea of what to work with over the winter (perhaps in Winetr Ball). And those two are on the 40-man.

 

The killer was that going in 2021 we had Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer as the reserves. Dobnak has a lot to prove this final month. But he is also in the position of being removed from the 40-man, but still kept in the organization and come back in the spring (shades of Perkins, maybe Balckburn and Mays of old). Both Smeltzer and Thorpe could be claimed, or just walk away if moved from the 40-man (unless the Twins care enough to do a Dobnak contract with either of them, too).

 

We have seen Barnes, who is in the mix and a lefty. We have seen Jax and Ryan, both in the mix. We know we can find guys like Albers (and maybe even retain Albers on a minor league contract (you pay them more than  40-man roster contracts, who knows if they will stay). The Twins want to think of Gant as a starter.

 

Going into 2022 they have Strotman on the rise (again, pitch him a few games in September). Balazovic and Duran are on the horizon, but for how many innings. Is Colina a starter or bullpen arm. They elevated Bryan Sammons to AAA to see what he can do as he is Rule 5 eligible and a lefty. Winder is a prospect on the rise. From AA they have Sands (Rule 5 eligible), the recovering Enlow, Simeon, and due for AA ball to start 2022 Canterino.

 

Yes, they need a free agent ace, and another good innings eater. Pineda is a choice? Well the good news is no one kicked in the door to obtain him at the trading deadline, so his stock may have fallen. Cheap is a happy word in front office land.

 

On a side note, on a post about Twins finding too many band-aids for their rotation, I did a quick look at 20 years of top of the rotation (innings) starters, and the 50+ games names of bullpen arms. You gotta love the memories of the name, but you see the same mistakes made over and over and that the Twins develop arms, but since Santana - no to Supermen.

 

We just aren't getting innings, from developed pitcher or high-end rentals.

 

Motivated me to look back at 20 years of Twins pitching.

 

2020: Berrios (53), Dobnak (45), Maeda (66), Hill (38) and our main arms in the pen: Clippard, Duffey, May, Romo, Rogers and Wisler squeaks in.

 

Before this, let's look at 100+ inning for starters and 50+ games for bullpen.

 

2019: Berrios (200), Gibson (160), Perez (165), Odorizzi (159), Pineda (146). Bullpen: Duffey, Harper, Rogers, May.

 

2018: Berrios (192), Gibson (196), Lynn (102), Odorizzi (164). Bullpen: Rogers, Pressly, Addison Reed, Hildenberger. 34 pitchers used in the season.

 

2017: Berrios (145), Gibson (158), E. Santana (211). Bullpen: Belisle, Duffey, Pressly, Rogers. Team high 36 pitchers on the club that year

 

2016: Duffey (133), Gibson (147), Nolasco (124), E. Santana (181). Bullpen: Kintzler, Tonkin, Rogers, Pressly.

 

2015: Gibson (194), Hughes (155), May (114), Milone (126), Pelfrey (164), E. Santana (108). Bullpen: Boyer, Duensing, Fien, Perkins.

 

2014: Correia (129), Gibson (179), Hughes (209), Milone (118), Nolasco (159). Bullpen: Burton, Fien, Duensing, Perkins, Swarzak, Thielbar.

 

2013: Correia (185), Deduno (108), Diamond (131). Pelfrey (156). Bullpen: Burton, Fien, Duensing, Roenicke, Thielbar in at 49.

 

2012: Diamond (173), Liriano (100), Blackburn (98). Swarzak and Duensing (109) both started and relieved. Bullpen: Bennett, Burton, Perkins. A season that might rival 2021...25 arms used of little memory.

 

2011: Baker (134), Blackburn (148), Duensing (161), Liriano (134), Swarzak (102), Pavano (222). Bullpen: Perkins, Capps, Burnett, Mijares.

 

2010: Baker (175), Blackburn (161), Liriano (191), Pavano (222), Slowey (155). Bullpen: Crain, Duensing, Guerrier, Rauch.

 

2009: Baker (200), Blackburn (205), Liriano (136). Bullpen: Crain, Guerrier, Mijares, Nathan.

 

2008: Baker (172), Blackburn (193), Bonser (118), Perkins (151), Slowey (160), Hernandez (139). Bullpen: Crain, Guerrier, Nathan, Reyes.

 

2007: Baker (143), Silva (202), Santana (219). Bullpen: Guerrier, Nathan, Neshek, Reyes, Rincon.

 

2006: Bonser (100), Liriano (121), Radke (152), Santana (233), SIlva (184). Bullpen: Crain, Nathan, Reyes, Rincon.

 

2005: Lohse (178), Mays (156), Radke (200), Santana (231), Silva (188). Bullpen: Crain, Nathan, Rincon, Romero.

 

2004: Lohse (194), Silva (203), Mulholland (123), Radke (219), Santana (228). Bullpen: Fultz, Rincon, Nathan, Romero.

 

2003: Lohse (201), Mays (130), Radke (212), Reed (135), Rogers (195), Santana (158). Bullpen: Guardado, Hawkins, RIncon, Romero.

 

2002: Lohse (180), Radke (118), Milton (171), Reed (188), Santana (108). Bullpen: Guardado, Hawkins, Jackson, Romero.

 

2001: Milton (233), Radke (226), Mays (233). Bullpen: Carrasco, Guardado, Wells.

 

2000: Mays (160), Milton (200), Radke (226), Redman (151). Bullpen: Guardado, Hawkins, Carrasco, Wells, Travis Miller.

 

The days of pitchers hitting 200+ innings seems a far reach, let alone have a rotation that can each pitch 100+ innings (can't wait to see 2021 breakdowns). One more call up and the Twins break the record of number of pitchers used in a season.

 

Hard to think about the early days when the whole season was handled by 1965 (15), 1967 (12), 1968 (14), 1969 (15), 1970 (13), 1971 (14), 1972 (16) pitchers. I guess people didn't get injured, and I also believe was the era of 4-man rotations, and a total staff of 9. Plus the closer pitched multiple innings. And, as Bert will tell us, more complete games!

 

 

 

20 years ago the average speed of a major league starter was 88.7 now it is closing in on 92.  The game has changed . Get over your fascination with innings pitched meaning something. It seems like 200 IP means a trip to the IL. That is counter productive. Innings pitched by a reliever also shows limits. It is not once was. 

[Minny505]

Shocked at all the Dobnak FUD. The man's first 15 starts in the bigs were fantastic, better than Ober. 

In 2021 he's screwed with and yo-yoed by management from opening day and pitches hurt. Just pretend 2021 never happened and you'll sing a very different tune.

Even with the dreadful 2021, he still has career numbers comparable to Ober. That's how good he was when he had a regular role as a starter and wasn't pitching injured.

For all the talk of SSS by this community being an issue with making snap judgements, it seems the majority are ready to embrace SSS outcomes as true talent when it comes to Ober and Dobnak. 

Why?

[Mike Sixel]

39 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Shocked at all the Dobnak FUD. The man's first 15 starts in the bigs were fantastic, better than Ober. 

In 2021 he's screwed with and yo-yoed by management from opening day and pitches hurt. Just pretend 2021 never happened and you'll sing a very different tune.

Even with the dreadful 2021, he still has career numbers comparable to Ober. That's how good he was when he had a regular role as a starter and wasn't pitching injured.

For all the talk of SSS by this community being an issue with making snap judgements, it seems the majority are ready to embrace SSS outcomes as true talent when it comes to Ober and Dobnak. 

Why?

who is saying we know Ober is good? We are saying he's in the starting rotation.....I guess someone may be saying that, but I don't think most are.....He might be? But we pretty much know he's in the rotation next year....

[mike8791]

Nick, if Falvey's and Pohlad's pronouncements on rebounding to "contention" next year are to be believed, then your recommendations to rebuild the rotation for next year would fall far short, I'm afraid.  Just going for FAs like Kluber, Heaney, Cobb, Morton is a drop in the bucket..  This team needs two top starters:   Rodon, Thor, Gausman, or Stroman in FA and a rising star like Alcantara or Lopez from Miami in trade.  Anything less and you're looking at mediocrity.  It's possible that one of Ryan or Ober can succeed over a full season next year, but unlikely both do.  Dobnak's weaknesses have been well exposed.  He cannot be considered as a positive on a contending staff, nor can guys like Balozavic, Winder, Duran, Strotman,  be counted on for much at the major league level, at least next year.  We just can't afford to rely on hope in prospects for a solid rebound in 2022.

Pohlad's actions must backup his pronouncements - expand the budget to at least $150-160MM and tell Falvey he expects them to be agressive in FA, as well as give up some talent to get more pitching - or else!  This team's mediocrity has always stemmed from lack of resolve and leadership at the top, as reflected in their choices for FO help.  This don't- rock- the- boat attitude has resulted in the longest losing streak in playoff history.  If Pohlad is satisfied with that record, he should do right by the Twins fan base and sell to an owner who truly wants a winner.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

It also sounds like 2000-2010 Twins. Which had a ceiling of getting to the playoffs, but not the horses to make a run.

If Falvine are going to show they can build a pitching pipeline, 2022 is a good time to start testing it

As far as still having a lineup to compete if the pipeline delivers, it seems you have the following expiration dates:

Donaldson - 2022

Buxton/Polanco/Sano/Kepler/Garver - 2024

If you don't make that, it's on to rebuilding with Arraez/Kiriloff/Jeffers/Larnach/Lewis/Martin/Miranda/Celestino, et al

 

Agree with the pitching part.  Donaldson is signed through 2023 and a $16M option for 2024 withan $8M buyout.  We would be better off long-term to get out of that contract ASAP and transition to Miranda next year.  Ideally, we trade Donaldson and pay $5-7M of his salary.  I believe Miranda could produce as well as a 3y y/o Donaldson in 2023.  Take the extra $15M and sign a $30M SP instead of a $15M SP or sign Buxton.  Actually, they could afford both with Donaldson off the books.

[Minny505]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

who is saying we know Ober is good? We are saying he's in the starting rotation.....I guess someone may be saying that, but I don't think most are.....He might be? But we pretty much know he's in the rotation next year....

That's fair Mike.

But why, 16 starts into Ober's career and 20 starts into Dobnak's career, where they have put up very similar peripherals, is Ober seen as a guaranteed spot by so many while most want nothing to do with Dobnak?

Whereas the numbers would indicate if the majority of fans think either one of them should be in the rotation next year, the majority of fans should think the same of the other. They have very similar projections at this point.

If it matters, Dobnak is only 6 months older than Ober. Dobnak was dominating big leaguers while Ober, at the same age, just got promoted to AA. 

And don't get me wrong, I do think Ober is the better pitcher, but the difference is marginal, maybe one rung up the ladder in terms of rotation spot ceiling. 

Is it just recency bias?

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Minny505 said:

Shocked at all the Dobnak FUD. The man's first 15 starts in the bigs were fantastic, better than Ober. 

In 2021 he's screwed with and yo-yoed by management from opening day and pitches hurt. Just pretend 2021 never happened and you'll sing a very different tune.

Even with the dreadful 2021, he still has career numbers comparable to Ober. That's how good he was when he had a regular role as a starter and wasn't pitching injured.

For all the talk of SSS by this community being an issue with making snap judgements, it seems the majority are ready to embrace SSS outcomes as true talent when it comes to Ober and Dobnak. 

Why?

Two words: recency bias. 

[Nick Nelson]

53 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Nick, if Falvey's and Pohlad's pronouncements on rebounding to "contention" next year are to be believed, then your recommendations to rebuild the rotation for next year would fall far short, I'm afraid.  Just going for FAs like Kluber, Heaney, Cobb, Morton is a drop in the bucket..  This team needs two top starters:   Rodon, Thor, Gausman, or Stroman in FA and a rising star like Alcantara or Lopez from Miami in trade.  Anything less and you're looking at mediocrity. 

I'm amazed by how many people can already say with assurance how all these pitchers will perform next year.

I bet you wouldn't have viewed Rodon as a 2021 impact guy one year ago. Or Gausman two years ago. Things change. People get healthy and turn corners. I'm not recommending anyone specifically, I'm just saying that quality arms are sourced from that middle tier of starters every year. Can the Twins make the right pick and take the right steps to get them there? That's the question.

[Linus]

I’m other words if everything breaks near perfectly we will have a slightly above average rotation. I think I would bet the under. 

[dxpavelka]

Remember that if the arms we've accumulated on the farm are as good and as close as we've been lead to believe, every veteran brought in via free agency and / or trade is blocking one of them.......

[DocBauer]

I'm tossing this out here as a discussion idea that I briefly touched on in my previous post. I think it's an interesting idea.

Verlander is a future HOF SP. He's also coming off injury and a lost season. He will also be 39yo when the 2022 season begins.

My hope and expectation is Stroman or Gausman on a multi-year deal to help anchor the staff. I can easily see Pineda, or similar, signed on something as short as a 1yr deal. And the various options have already been named.

But instead of trading for a solid #2 option type....which I am not opposed to....what if the Twins did something a little crazy and took a shot for Verlander on  1yr deal? MAYBE a 1+1 deal.

Despite an amazing career, age and injury are real factors. There is an obvious risk factor to signing him. But he and the Twins know one another quite well. Could he be looking for a short term deal to re-establish himself? Is he feeling the end is near and maybe agree to a 1+1? Either way, is he worth a serious shot? How much would it take? Would you sign him at 1yr at $15-18M with incentives up to $20M+? Or does Houston or someone else just take a huge plunge and just offer a guaranteed number that we don't want to touch on a 2 or 3yr deal?

Thoughts?

 

[cHawk]

11 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

4) Dobnak. For the life of me, I cannot understand this FO's infatuation with Dobnak. Great story and all, and I'm glad he will make millions off the Twins, but he's a really bad pitcher. Playoff teams don't rely on Dobnaks.

 

[Vanimal46]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Remember that if the arms we've accumulated on the farm are as good and as close as we've been lead to believe, every veteran brought in via free agency and / or trade is blocking one of them.......

There used to be a person here who had in their signature “Will (insert year here) be the year where a prospect is truly blocked by 5 good starters?” 

There’s no such thing as a player blocking a prospect. Not here. Not in the last decade. Certainly not with the current state of the pitching staff. 

On the flip side, if all we do is rely on young pitchers, and they flop, there’s no one else to turn to. 

[Rik19753]

I would be shocked if they traded for a #2/3 type pitcher. They certainly aren't going to trade for a pitcher on a one-year contract because that wouldn't make any sense given that they traded Berrios. And I can't envision them trading for a pitcher with multiple years remaining because they have had a dozen better opportunities to do so when this team was in contention, yet they passed up all of those chances. I think it's pretty clear at this point that they aren't comfortable trading multiple quality prospects, which is what it will take to get a front-of-the rotation starter.

I could certainly see them trading a low-level prospect for a back of the rotation pitcher though.

[LastOnePicked]

13 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the FO thinks this way, they should trade everybody possible on the team. Kepler, Garver, Sano, Donaldson, Polanco, Arreaz, all of them and start over,

I'm 100% certain they feel this way - that's why the traded Berrios and actively shopped Buxton and Rodgers before the deadline. For PR reasons, they're not saying this publicly, but even Dan Hayes indicted recently that they're saying it privately. You watch - they will sign 1-2 Happ-like starters over the offseason, tops.

As for trades, there are no takers out there for Kepler, Sano or Donaldson. Perhaps they can rebuild trade value by next year's deadline, but that's doubtful, too.

Polanco and Arraez are worth keeping for 2023.

You don't end a 90+ loss season, return with virtually no starting rotation and no bullpen, and compete with the likes of the White Sox. It's just not going to happen. Even Nick's blueprint for 2022 success includes a great deal of magical thinking about Pineda and Dobnak.

But that's okay. Make 2022 a development year. But then go big on Berrios. Get the pieces ready to retake the Central in 2023.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm not sure I would classify this plan as "good".  It's likely far less of a disaster as last year with some upside, but "good" seems highly unlikely.

I would like to see Ryan, Ober, Dobnak start the year but there is a good chance they may need seasoning.  Or stretching out.

To supplement that I'd sign one Happ-like veteran as a filler.  Maybe that's Pineda if he comes back reasonably, but I don't think he'll be worth it.  Then I'd sign Jon Gray to a five year 70M deal.  And I'd trade what we have to for Zac Gallen as a buy-low option.  I hate speculating what that might be, but I'd pay it.

Gallen-Gray-Ryan-Ober-Dobnak/Pineda/Warmbody Holding a Place for a Young Guy has potential to be good.  Still probably not a good chance of it though.