Trade Retrospective: Which Team Won the Kenta Maeda Trade?

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Brandon said:

What Maeda's fWAR with the Twins?  Isn't that what Graterol has to pass? I think the Twins win this trade.  But the Didgers did well too.  They both got something they needed.  Also Maeda can help sell other Japanese players on Minnesota being a great team to play for.  Could help in future signings, Maeda's contract, and how well he has pitched when not injured all facitor in for the Twins.  For the Dodgers, they subtract an excess pitcher, get a low cost reliever with promise, and he has pitched solidly so far.  Anyway you look at it both teams objectives were likely met.

I was referencing Gunnar saying Graterol would have the nicer career, not who "won" the trade.

Though I think, in the end, both will be satisfied with the trade. But as of right now, the Twins probably received more from the trade, as it's hard to see them winning the division in 2020 without Maeda.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

This is a fairly even trade, really.  No one won, no one lost.  Yet.

Ultimately, nothing changed with either team by this trade.  The Twins still laid an egg in the playoffs, the Dodgers still barreled over everybody.  Thus, no winners, no losers.

I suppose you could say the Twins "won" by making a move that allowed them to stay in the same position, if you wanted to go that way.  But then, the Dodgers "won" by the same token.....

With Maeda riding the pine for 2022 and the other players continuing to improve, it's unlikely the trade remains even for much longer.

• Twins = 3.8 fWAR and a near Cy Young starting pitcher in a season they went to the playoffs.
• Dodgers = 0.5 fWAR middle innings relief pitcher.

Definitely equal so far. I'm not even sure why people want to debate this. Even if Graterol somehow becomes a pitcher who can actually strike guys out and hit his spots, he's also going to have to become a pitcher who shows up to Spring Training in good enough shape to be part of the team. On top of that, he's never going to catch up to Maeda's value added if Graterol remains a reliever and given his lack of commitment to conditioning and lack of a 3rd pitch, that's not happening.

The Graterol Kool-Aid was strong on Twins fans sites, but ultimately, he's not the next Aroldis Chapman, just the next Jim Hoey. If Graterol has a 5.0 WAR career, I'd be surprised.

[Dodecahedron]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

• Twins = 3.8 fWAR and a near Cy Young starting pitcher in a season they went to the playoffs.
• Dodgers = 0.5 fWAR middle innings relief pitcher.

Definitely equal so far. I'm not even sure why people want to debate this. Even if Graterol somehow becomes a pitcher who can actually strike guys out and hit his spots, he's also going to have to become a pitcher who shows up to Spring Training in good enough shape to be part of the team. On top of that, he's never going to catch up to Maeda's value added if Graterol remains a reliever and given his lack of commitment to conditioning and lack of a 3rd pitch, that's not happening.

The Graterol Kool-Aid was strong on Twins fans sites, but ultimately, he's not the next Aroldis Chapman, just the next Jim Hoey. If Graterol has a 5.0 WAR career, I'd be surprised.

Sure, WAR one way to look at it, and is probably the most predictable way.  I would prefer to look at how the teams actually changed due to the trade.  Neither team changed.  Sure, the Twins had to make this trade to tread water and stay the same.  I'm not sure that's a win.

Don't forget this piece of the "trade":

Quote

The Dodger also received a 2020 competitive balance round pick (66th overall), which they used to select Clayton Beeter. He has been used in an opener style role this season while posting a 2.89 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with 13.8 K/9.

Beeter might end up being better than both Maeda and Graterol.

[gunnarthor]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Graterol needs to start pitching A LOT better very quickly if he’s going to top Maeda’s career 13 fWAR. It’s really quite difficult to accumulate value as a reliever. For example, even someone like Craig Kimbrel has only 19 career fWAR. 

I meant better career from the trade date. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Graterol surpassed Maeda's career WAR (either b-r or fangraphs). It's mostly a question of innings. But as you know from this past off-season, I was the low man on Maeda even before this season. Still, I think the trade made sense for both teams.

(I also see that someone remembered that we threw in a draft pick. I had forgotten that. That's two picks this FO has traded away. I hate that.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

52 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I meant better career from the trade date. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Graterol surpassed Maeda's career WAR (either b-r or fangraphs). It's mostly a question of innings. But as you know from this past off-season, I was the low man on Maeda even before this season. Still, I think the trade made sense for both teams.

(I also see that someone remembered that we threw in a draft pick. I had forgotten that. That's two picks this FO has traded away. I hate that.)

Ah, in that case, Graterol definitely has the advantage due to service time, doubly so now that Maeda is out for 9-12 months.

[Vanimal46]

Starters will always win the WAR battle against relievers… WPA is a bit closer looking at Maeda vs Graterol since the trade…

Maeda: +1.26

Graterol: +1.02

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

• Twins = 3.8 fWAR and a near Cy Young starting pitcher in a season they went to the playoffs.
• Dodgers = 0.5 fWAR middle innings relief pitcher.

Definitely equal so far. I'm not even sure why people want to debate this

Is there some faulty construction here? If you are going to state what the Twins did in the playoffs, shouldn’t you state what the Dodgers did in the playoffs?

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Is there some faulty construction here? If you are going to state what the Twins did in the playoffs, shouldn’t you state what the Dodgers did in the playoffs?

Maybe, but Maeda wasn't the reason the Twins lost and Graterol wasn't the reason the Dodgers won.

[prouster]

Just to echo what others have said, it’s the Twins, and it’s not particularly close. The raw WAR totals both players have put up the last two seasons are far apart: 3.7 for Maeda to 0.5 for Graterol. Graterol will likely add to that before hitting free agency, but the Twins got a Chance Young runner up in a playoff year. 

[Brandon]

You also can't forget what the trade does for each team.  We needed a starter and got one with a very team friendly risk averse deal.  The Dodgers traded away a situation where they couldn't deliver on a promise to get this player more starts than he wanted or deserved.  They got rid of a problem before it became a clubhouse problem.  Also the Dodgers got a minimum cost player to put in mid relief as they have too many making millions of dollars so this is a way to help balance that for them.  

[ashbury]

At the moment I see the trade as win-win for both teams. Starters are more valuable but a good reliever with longevity is not chopped liver.

While I agree with those who say that purpose of trading is not to "win" them each and every time, I do think that retrospectives like this are valuable - you want your team to do good stewardship of its resources, and constantly overpaying even for good talent in return will eventually take its toll. Graterol for Maeda looks equitable; Gil for Cave, for example, does not.