Is it too early to call Cavaco a bust?

[tony&rodney]

To the post, yes it is way too early.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Sconnie said:

Isn’t every drafted player a “project”. Even the fastest to develop draftees take 3-4 years to make it to the bigs.

I don’t think it’s yet time to call Cavaco a bust, but he needs to come into next season ready for high A…

Project as in extremely raw with obvious major issues which need to be addressed, but athleticism which may overcome them. I think it's fair to say the fastest high school prospects to the majors generally take 2-3 years, but 4 years out of high school is not terribly uncommon. Even with all his injuries, Buxton made MLB 3 years after his draft. Harper, Machado, Soto, etc. were in MLB 2 years after being drafted. For college level players 1-2 years for some elites and 3 is fairly common.

[Seth Stohs]

On 8/30/2021 at 4:41 PM, purplesoldier4u said:

See: Levi Michael

There is zero connection between Cavaco and Michael. 

Michael was drafted at #30 or so as a pretty-well  developed infielder with maybe utility infielder realistic upside (though I'm sure the hope when he was drafted was that he could be a starting infielder).

Cavaco was a drafted as a young player out of high school with all the tools and all the potential. He's all about upside, but of course with that, he has a lower flower too. 

[Seth Stohs]

On 9/4/2021 at 8:33 PM, Thegrin said:

What has happened in Cavaco's life? Was he emotionally ready for this huge change in living? Was he physically ready? Particularly after the lockdowns? How's his love life?

Do the Twins have the people to help young players adapt and develop? Do the Twins have the people to help him grow into the player he might be?

Baseball is a results oriented game. Perhaps Cavaco will never be ready to make the big leagues, but I want to know if the Twins are doing the right things to help him succeed.

What?!?!??! This would be a case of jumping to a lot of conclusions beyond just simply:

1.) Baseball isn't easy.
2.) Hitting in the Florida State League has always sapped players' power.
3.) Like others, he missed 2020 completely, and as a player who was raw and toolsy, he needed and needs repetition.
4.) Baseball in the low minors is not a results-oriented league. It's all about development. 
5.) A .240 season for a 20-year-old coming off of a missed season while playing in the humidity of the formerly-Florida State League isn't as bad as one might think. The average hitter in the Low-A Southeast this year is .216/.338/.332 (.670), and Cavaco is now hitting .233/.296/.301 (.597). So yes, below average, but so much more goes into that. He missed time with two IL stints, including a concussion. 

Who knows if Cavaco will make it to the big leagues, become a starting-caliber player, an All Star or a utility type? No one. I won't pretend it's a certainty (as I wouldn't with any prospect, regardless of their stats). But 100% wayyyyy too early to say he's a bust.

[Brandon]

Tori Hunter got off to a slow start in the minors. 

[old nurse]

Why would anyone judge a player on development  before they have a chance to develop?

A first round draft pick between 10 and 15 has less than a 25% chance of being a 10 WAR player.  So, in time I guess you have a very good chance of calling it correctly that Cavaco is a bust.  Statistically based on 1st round draft results it would be about 75% of the picks you could find fault with.  It makes for an easy target for people to complain about. 

[old nurse]

39 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Tori Hunter got off to a slow start in the minors. 

Age 25 when he finally became the player

[DocBauer]

Initial, short answer is YES, it's way too early to dismiss him as a prospect. 

Detailed, longer response,  EVERY SINGLE PROSPECT is DIFFERENT than EVERY OTHER PROSPECT. If that wasn't the case, MLB would assemble a draft depth chart on some sort of (fantasy) projection algorithm and teams would decide what position they needed most, and when they would project to need them, and would place an order for "the 7th rated SS on the list that should be ready in 4yrs as we're probably OK until then". 

If you pull up the draft grades of Gordon and Cavaco, they match almost exactly the same across the board, despite them being drafted 8 spots from one another. Without going in too great of detail, virtually identical in HIT ability and Gordon having a slight edge in arm, speed and fielding, with Cavaco having an edge in power. The greatest difference, IIRC was Gordon was more well known, had been on the "circuit" much more, had more experience at SS in his HS career, while Cavaco was less experienced at SS, had a better frame for power, and was a less known "fast riser" prospect that several teams had their eye on.  BOTH had the athleticism, speed and arm to stick at SS with time and coaching. BOTH had speed, Gordon a bit more, while, again, Cavaco offered a bigger frame and more power. This is all for reference sake. Every draft is different. But if you want a HS SS with real athleticism and potential, you usually have to grab them fairly early or you won't get them at all.

Cavaco had a LOUSY 1st rookie ball season. Then, despite no 2020 ball at all, he was sent to A- ball at Ft Myers this year, which happens to be a notoriously tough hitters league. He actually lead Ft Myers in BA for most of the 1st half of the season before missing time with injury. Since he came back, he's been struggling.

Now, before anyone dares accuse me of being a FO apologist or homer, let me clearly state I wasn't in favor of EITHER the Gordon OR Cavaco selections. (Let's also be very clear that each selection was made by a different FO). But again, to be equally clear, if you want to draft a young HS SS that has the POTENTIAL to STICK at that spot, that has the POTENTIAL to actually hit, run, hopefully provide some power as well, in other words a dangerous and well rounded athlete and potential offensive spark plug, you are going to have to draft them pretty early. 

In each case, there was a college player, or two, I liked better were I in charge. In each case, said player(s) were coming off down seasons and didn't necessarily posses all the tools that Gordon and Cavaco offered. I became a Gordon convert after his first couple of seasons. THEN he battled an intestinal problem that slowed him. And just when it looked like he had figured that out, he had an injury that robbed him of a promotion and gave Arraez his initial shot. After that, Gordon dealt with a severe case of covid that had him hospitalized,  I believe, and caused a major weight loss he couldn't afford to have. Now, with the jury still out, with time and health, Gordon looks like an actual, useful ML utility player who is hitting a little, playing OK defense while also learning brand new spots, stealing some bases, and looking like he actually has some kind of career ahead of him, with the Twins or someone else.

Perspective. 

But Cavaco, 1st round pick or not, has gone from HS to 1/2 a season of rookie ball, no baseball for a full year except his own workouts, and then sent to A ball where he held his own and lead his team in BA before his injury. He's following the right path. In fact, he's following the same path that Miller, our 2nd round pick this year, will surely follow; rookie ball to A- ball. The difference, besides being completely different individuals is, one will have continuity and one will have had a completely lost year.

So while not a big fan or the original selection, and would rank him lower on the prospect lists despite athleticism/talent/projection,  short and long version answers are YES, way too early to dismiss him as a prospect. 

[Twins33]

Yes, it’s too early and this is coming from someone who absolutely hated that pick. I wanted Stott. His bat was superior, can’t remember about defense but I think that might have been superior to me too. 
 

While I think it’s still too early, I expect absolutely zero from Cavaco. If he ends up doing anything I will be pleasantly surprised and happy. 

[Mike Sixel]

Did anyone like this pick, over the other guys available, other than the Twins FO? I mean, clearly I want him to succeed.....

[Dodecahedron]

On 9/5/2021 at 7:17 PM, Sconnie said:

Isn’t every drafted player a “project”.

Very true.  One has to wonder why people chose to label him a project and not his peers, though.  It certainly could be that the label has been put on him unfairly.

Project or not, it's on him to prove himself.

[Taildragger8791]

On 9/5/2021 at 9:46 PM, Seth Stohs said:

What?!?!??! This would be a case of jumping to a lot of conclusions beyond just simply:

1.) Baseball isn't easy.
2.) Hitting in the Florida State League has always sapped players' power.
3.) Like others, he missed 2020 completely, and as a player who was raw and toolsy, he needed and needs repetition.
4.) Baseball in the low minors is not a results-oriented league. It's all about development. 
5.) A .240 season for a 20-year-old coming off of a missed season while playing in the humidity of the formerly-Florida State League isn't as bad as one might think. The average hitter in the Low-A Southeast this year is .216/.338/.332 (.670), and Cavaco is now hitting .233/.296/.301 (.597). So yes, below average, but so much more goes into that. He missed time with two IL stints, including a concussion. 

Who knows if Cavaco will make it to the big leagues, become a starting-caliber player, an All Star or a utility type? No one. I won't pretend it's a certainty (as I wouldn't with any prospect, regardless of their stats). But 100% wayyyyy too early to say he's a bust.

Any concern that the very poor strikeout/walk rates may indicate a fatal flaw in his hit tool? I understand the lack of results in a tough adjustment to a tough hitting league...but I expect the raw bat-to-ball skill should still come through.

[Taildragger8791]

1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

Very true.  One has to wonder why people chose to label him a project and not his peers, though.  It certainly could be that the label has been put on him unfairly.

Project or not, it's on him to prove himself.

Results would indicate it wasn't an unfair label. Some guys come in more advanced on certain tools than others. Clearly he had zero advanced skills/tools and needs to be molded and developed almost from scratch across the board.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Any concern that the very poor strikeout/walk rates may indicate a fatal flaw in his hit tool? I understand the lack of results in a tough adjustment to a tough hitting league...but I expect the raw bat-to-ball skill should still come through.

Right....pitches don't magically move differently in FL......

[adorduan]

Too early to say that.  That being said, I'm not a fan of this pick or last years either.....Hope I'm proven wrong.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Any concern that the very poor strikeout/walk rates may indicate a fatal flaw in his hit tool? I understand the lack of results in a tough adjustment to a tough hitting league...but I expect the raw bat-to-ball skill should still come through.

Certainly there are concerns. K/rate would be one of them. I'd like to see him get to Cedar Rapids next year, get out of Florida, not miss a full season, and hope there are improvements in that area. 

[MMMordabito]

[ashbury]

On 9/8/2021 at 9:12 AM, MMMordabito said:

Did this add anything to the discussion that a few words or a paragraph wouldn't?

[bird]

On 9/7/2021 at 1:49 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Did anyone like this pick, over the other guys available, other than the Twins FO? I mean, clearly I want him to succeed.....

Like you, Mike, I tend to think the takes from MLR and Dman and others reflect what many of us felt at the time. Frankly, any one of the next half-dozen selections would have given me more comfort.

MLR described it as possibly the FO getting "cute". I describe my own nagging suspicion this way: I wonder if they're prone to occasional bouts of hubris that encourages them to get cute, like at the trade deadline a couple years back.

I'm willing to withhold judgment on their drafts and on a few other questionable things, on the basis of some of the really positive moves they've made.

As for Cavaco, I don't have an opinion, just a general observation about what I see as a deficiency in talk about prospects. I think there's a giant chasm between an athlete's theoretical or assumed tools and and a player's skills. To me, the bet with Cavaco, like it was with Buxton for example, is that his inferior skills eventually catch up to his presumably superior tools. But roight now, it's sure hard to see how his tools are superior to Stott or Corbin, or how Priester's or Zack Thompsons vastly superior skills won't compensate for any what they might lack in tools.

I always feel a higher comfort level with prospects whose tools and skills aren't miles apart.

[bighat]

@DocBauer nice post, well said man.

[Thegrin]

What does this mean?

• Fort Myers Mighty Mussels placed SS Keoni Cavaco on the temporarily inactive list

 

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Thegrin said:

What does this mean?

• Fort Myers Mighty Mussels placed SS Keoni Cavaco on the temporarily inactive list

 

I don't know the specifics, but that is usually used when there is a family issue ... birth, death, other?