Can the Pitching Staff Compete in 2022?

[old nurse]

17 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I pains be to see the ongoing denial surrounding Buck. Contrary to what is put out there in the media...Buck does not want to and will not sign long term with the Twins unless they go well past market value (and they will not).

He is not happy with:

1. The messing with his service time

2. The mixed messages and lack of a cohesive strategy surrounding developing his hitting within the organization

3. Most recently the Twins petty leaking of their 'offers' to save face.

In addition, he does not want to or need to sign a hugely incentive based contract which shifts risk away from the team onto the player. A team will give him lots of guaranteed money on the open market because he does indeed have the potential to be a transformational player. He is not an older reclamation project who needs to sign an incentive based contract. He has MUCH more leverage that that!

 

I don't want to lose him at all and will be profoundly disappointed, BUT we will lose him so we need to focus on getting maximum return.

Your three points of Burton’s thinking is like Vodka Daves imminent trade pots

[Whitey333]

OMG.  Someone thinks Buxton is a future hall of famer?  Get real!  He is a career .247 hitter and has played less than half of games during that span.  He has had one great month that's it.i like him, and hope they can keep him, but let's not make him out to be more than he is: a good average hitter and great defensive center fielder.  Don't worry, the money they save by not signing Buxton will allow them to dive in the pitching dumpster even more deeply and find some washed up cheap pitchers no one else wants.

[terrydactyls]

14 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is how small mistakes can snowball for a team like the Twins. If you have a Baddoo and/or a Wade, you can trade for starting pitching depth. Even Kepler had peak value not long ago, but no trade materialized.

If you had kept Gil or Ynoa, you'd have lively young arms already emerging to join Ober and Jax.

Even if you had even given Lance Lynn another try as a FA when he was available and affordable, you'd have a solid ace to rebuild around.

At each step, the FO has made the wrong chess move. And now, a young man many were *hoping* to be a solid #5 starter at best is likely the 2022 Opening Day starter. Good for Ober, I really like him, but it's gonna be tough to watch this all unfold as the rebuilding process stalls. And even tougher if a work stoppage wipes out the 2022 development opportunities for our MiLB starters..

If you see a dead horse, you should beat it.

This thread is supposed to be about the approach to take for 2022; not some rehash of the history of the Twins front office.

[TopGunn#22]

Thank You for the great topic Cody, although I have to admit, it's frustrating to no end to have you lay out the "typical" Twins approach taken by the Pohlad regime.  The fact is, if the Pohlad's don't start investing some serious money into their "baseball team" their business model is going to smell like fruit rotting on the tree.  Self imposed salary levels are BS.  The product they put on the field this year is embarrassing.  And they can't use the excuse of "injuries.'  EVERYBODY deals with injuries.  As I've stated before and will continue to:  When you compare how the White Sox approached this off-season to how the Twins did (the counter moves the Twins made to the moves the White Sox made) you see a team SERIOUS about contending and another that was completely UN-serious.  How else do you compare the signings of Lynn, Hendricks and Keuchel to Happ, Colome and Shoemaker ???  So it's either FO complete incompetence or it's penurious ownership.  Or BOTH.  Neither is a satisfactory answer if the Twins don't want to play before crowds of 7,000 people at beautiful Target Field in 2022, 2023 and beyond.  Jimmy Pohlad is going to have to blow up the "business model" and spend some serious cash this off season or the only money this franchise will make will come from TV revenue (and have you seen what the ratings are for Twins games lately???).  

The plan:  Sign Carlos Rodon (28 years old) to 5-years $110 million.  Could have offered that to Berrios but traded him instead.  Now you have a #1 for 5-years.  Other options, same money are Kevin Gausman, Thor, (or Stroman for a bit less).

TRADE for pitching.  MLB Trade Values has this trade as doable;  Twins trade Jeffers 27.9 value and Kepler 37.5 value (Total 65.40) to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara (25 years old)  61.90 value.  It's a bit of an overpay but that's the price of Starting Pitching.  I'd talk to the Orioles about Jon Means (28 years old) and probably over-pay a bit there as well.  

So in 2022,  I have a staff of Rodon, Alcantara and Means with Ober #4 and a cast of thousands to fill #5 (Maeda if/when he's healthy, Dobnak, and ALL those young arms (except any young arm I trade to Baltimore in the needed Means trade).  The Twins need competent pitchers for 2022.  If I have to give up a Duran, Winder, Strotman etc... to get Jon Means it must be done.  We've got "arms aplenty" in the pipeline.  We need some arms that can help the Twins NOW.  

And an earlier suggestion on another thread to sign Kimbrel to close and another arm (Rosenthal/Yates/etc...) to build the back end of the bullpen needs to happen.  It will cost cold hard CASH.  But that's the price the Twins need to pay to regain some stature in this market.  Whether it's Pohlad or the FO, the Twins have been trying to get by on the cheap for as long as we can remember.  I for one REFUSE to accept the same old same old CRAP from this franchise.  So instead of the "likely" scenario laid out by Cody, I challenge the Twins from TOP to BOTTOM.  EARN MY INTEREST.  Because if they lose a baseball guy like ME, they've lost their FOUNDATION.  And they will not recover.  

[Karbo]

Sign 1 top end FA starter in the ballpark of 5yrs/110mil, sign or trade for 1 mid tier starter (Pineida?), Sign a top end Closer, 2 quality set-up guys for the pen and fill in the rest with what is already in house. Wow thats  5 pitchers in 1 off season. How many will this FO actually need to get for the odds to work out?

[Linus]

No. They literally need 15 new pitchers for next year. While they have some numbers in the high minors they are mostly back of the rotation types. Not to mention the fact that a certain number just won’t make it. 
 

the Maeda news was the last nail. We are now officially looking at 2023 or 24. 

[KirbyDome89]

19 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

It's ok that the team has to retool though, that's the life of a mid-market in baseball.

In general, or in this specific instance?

[Nine of twelve]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 Joe Mauer is still Joe Mauer. Read J. Jaffe on fangraphs if you have any doubts. Easily a top ten catcher in baseball history. Jaffe rates him at #7.

And at the point in time of his contract extension in 2009 he was the best baseball player in the world.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

In general, or in this specific instance?

Both.  Things went south and got compounded with poor moves.

[jkcarew]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Never impeded the Twins - it was how Pohlad chose to run team. Mauer has a no trade clause in his contract. Joe Mauer is still Joe Mauer. Read J. Jaffe on fangraphs if you have any doubts. Easily a top ten catcher in baseball history. Jaffe rates him at #7. Those who constructed a false narrative about Mauer will hold their views but it is unlikely that any Twins fan alive sees his equal in their lifetime. That's all I have to say about that.

 

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Those who constructed a false narrative about Mauer will hold their views…

We agree!

[Greglw3]

I’ll take an optimistic approach. If they can sign two free agent pitchers that both finish with a record 10 games above .500, then Ryan, Ober and maybe Pineda could be .500 as a group. That’s a rotation that’s 20 games above .500. The offense will need new faces ( Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Miranda, Kirilloff RF, Buxton) to get those two FA acquisitions to 20 games over .500.

I would suggest Robby Ray and Danny Duffy, both with very good ERAs this season. Then if they can significantly improve the bullpen with aggressive FA and trade efforts, they could increase to 25 above .500

[Vanimal46]

Now that Gibaut has made his Twins debut, we’ve thrown 33 pitchers against the wall to see what sticks. What have we learned? And how many will be here in 2022? 

[D.C Twins]

8 hours ago, old nurse said:

Your three points of Burton’s thinking is like Vodka Daves imminent trade pots

All three points are true...

He has less than 1% chance of playing for the Twins in 2023.

Tag this post for posterity if you'd like

Again, this doesn't make me happy but that doesn't change the reality.

Incidentally, I also said early and often that Berrios was never signing FA contract with us either (and therefore needed to be traded)

Wasn't happy about that either, but our level of happiness with a scenario unfortunately does not change reality

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Now that Gibaut has made his Twins debut, we’ve thrown 33 pitchers against the wall to see what sticks. What have we learned? And how many will be here in 2022? 

Ober. and Um.....hmmmmm. no other starter right now? 

In the bullpen, Duffey, Gant, and Taylor Rogers.

Most likely Jax or Dobnak in relief / AAA. Alcala in AAA to start the year. 

After that? Anyone's guess.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I’ll take an optimistic approach. If they can sign two free agent pitchers that both finish with a record 10 games above .500, then Ryan, Ober and maybe Pineda could be .500 as a group. That’s a rotation that’s 20 games above .500. The offense will need new faces ( Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Miranda, Kirilloff RF, Buxton) to get those two FA acquisitions to 20 games over .500.

I would suggest Robby Ray and Danny Duffy, both with very good ERAs this season. Then if they can significantly improve the bullpen with aggressive FA and trade efforts, they could increase to 25 above .500

So the Twins are going to sign Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Robbie Ray, Danny Duffy, and be aggressive in FA in addressing the bullpen?

 

 

[Greglw3]

12 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

So the Twins are going to sign Carlos Correa, Michael Brantley, Robbie Ray, Danny Duffy, and be aggressive in FA in addressing the bullpen?

 

 

Yep, time for a change a/la the White Sox of the last 3 years. They have to pay up if they want to win.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Yep, time for a change a/la the White Sox of the last 3 years. They have to pay up if they want to win.

To be clear, what year did the Sox sign that many expensive players? What year did any team?

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

All three points are true...

He has less than 1% chance of playing for the Twins in 2023.

Tag this post for posterity if you'd like

Again, this doesn't make me happy but that doesn't change the reality.

Incidentally, I also said early and often that Berrios was never signing FA contract with us either (and therefore needed to be traded)

Wasn't happy about that either, but our level of happiness with a scenario unfortunately does not change reality

Fake statistics. Gotta love it. Never mind that Buxton is quoted saying he wants to stay with the Twins.

Berrios had stated in the past that he wanted to test free agency and get as much money as he can. It really did not take much thinking to come up with he would be traded.

[bean5302]

I do love the optimism on how low top tier starters can be signed in terms of salary and/or years. 5/110 is not top tier starter money. It's tier 2 starter money. 5/110 didn't get Johan Santana 15 years ago and salaries have skyrocketed since then.

[Greglw3]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

To be clear, what year did the Sox sign that many expensive players? What year did any team?

Best I can determine the recent White Sox FA signings or extensions to ward off FA are:

Adam Eaton 
Jose Abreau
Liam Hendricks
Dallas Keuchel
Lance Lynn
Yasmani Grandal
Gio Gonzalez

[chopper0080]

The issue is that both the starting rotation and the bullpen look to be a mess. If the bullpen was solid I would think there would be a decent path to success. Trying to rebuild both is a different story.

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

To be clear, what year did the Sox sign that many expensive players? What year did any team?

I am think the question you should have asked was if the poster was suggesting the Twins trade away long-term assets similar to Sale/ Eaton like the WS did to initiate building the team they have now.  Trading away a year and a couple months of Berrios is not at all like trading Sale and Eaton and whoever else they traded back then.  It makes absolutely no sense to hold up the WS as an example and ignore they got here via a rebuild that took a few years.   They spent very little in free agency during those years.

Sode note:  I believe the Twins were at roughly  $10M less than the WS in annual salary before they traded away Cruz / Berrios / Happ

[Battle ur tail off]

I don't think there is really any chance without them getting extremely lucky. Lucky meaning 2 guys we haven't seen much from this year come in and be anchors in the rotation with one of them having an all-star type year. 

It would also likely mean signing or trading for one of the top 1-3 starters on the market, which I don't see them doing. 

The bullpen will also have to be reworked. Meaning trade for a guy, sign 2 more and have 1 or two from your system fill big holes. 

 

To be quite honest, the prudent move might be to have a fire sale. Blow it up with an eye on 3-4 years from now. I HATE that, but I just am not sure how you can truly contend with the severe lack of pitching we have right now. 

 

[KirbyDome89]

23 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Both.  Things went south and got compounded with poor moves.

I'd argue things went south because of poor moves with other factors compounding existing issues. 

As a general rule, I agree, even the best teams need to reset. As far as the Twins are concerned I think it came about prematurely. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I don't think there is really any chance without them getting extremely lucky. Lucky meaning 2 guys we haven't seen much from this year come in and be anchors in the rotation with one of them having an all-star type year. 

It would also likely mean signing or trading for one of the top 1-3 starters on the market, which I don't see them doing. 

The bullpen will also have to be reworked. Meaning trade for a guy, sign 2 more and have 1 or two from your system fill big holes. 

 

To be quite honest, the prudent move might be to have a fire sale. Blow it up with an eye on 3-4 years from now. I HATE that, but I just am not sure how you can truly contend with the severe lack of pitching we have right now. 

 

They don’t need to blow it up.  They need to use 2022 to get pitchers established.  It won’t be pretty at times but they could put a very good product on the field in 2023 if they use this next year to develop pitchers.  This includes testing guys like Jax in the BP.  

Let’s assume for just a moment Ober is solid going forward.  They need two of Balazovic / Ryan / Duran / Canterino / SWR / Enlow / Winder to get established in 2022.  That’s a relatively modest expectation.  Maeda is back in 2023.  Establishing all these pitchers will leave plenty in the budget to go sign a very good SP, perhaps Jose Berrios.

Sign Buxton and get Kirilloff back and healthy in 2022.  Make the transition from Donaldson to Miranda in 2022.  Some of the starting pitching prospects fine their way to the BP in 2022.  Martin joins the big league club in 2022 and Lewis in 2023.  We would still have enough payroll flexibility to add one more impact FA as a result of developing SP and pieces.  We could also trade Arraez for a SS or pitching.

BTW ... This team is over 500 this month against a very tough schedule without Buxton / Kirilloff and "no pitching".   Get those guys back and hopefully some production from Larnach with Jake Cave removed and we have a pretty darn good offense.  

[TheLeviathan]

22 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'd argue things went south because of poor moves with other factors compounding existing issues. 

As a general rule, I agree, even the best teams need to reset. As far as the Twins are concerned I think it came about prematurely. 

I can get behind that.  Though I'm not sure even with good moves this team was going to be in a better position with Buxton hurt most of the year and just too many things going wrong.  I mean, you can't bat 1.000, so even if half the moves they made were better where does that land us?  To me, still in a reset/retool position, but maybe I'm just being pessimistic.

I definitely agree it seemed to come faster than I would've thought a year or two ago.

[Twins33]

As is, no. I think Ryan and Ober need to be in the rotation next year guaranteed which means Ryan needs to be up ASAP. 
 

How they do in FA and trades will be more important than ever since they need so many pitchers. They need to go hard after guys who are way more than 4/5’s. My top choices are Rodon and Ray. Getting one of them would be a good start. I prefer both, but trying to be as realistic as I can. Trade for someone else (Means? Pablo Lopez?). Hard to know who would be available and seems to be slim pickings on the bad teams. 
 

I’m against signing guys who are 4/5 types next year. The Twins have had horrible health luck with their pitchers this year (I’m sure it’s the same for most teams) but I think they’ll have more than enough minors depth to handle 1-2 spots next year if something happens to Ober or Ryan. Too many injuries and it’ll turn into a lost season anyway so no reason to keep trying to waste money on the next Shoemaker/Bailey/Perez etc. So many of their attempts to just fill the rotation have backfired. Pineda has been the best one in recent years. I’d rather they take all that money they’d want to spend on three SP and spend it on one or two really good ones. 

[Mike Sixel]

I agree that signing more than one number 4 type is a huge blunder. But maybe 1.....

The key is signing a legit FA or trading for one.

If they are lucky and Ober is this good, they sign a legit FA #2 type, and one guy is a 2 or 3 and they have a bunch of 3/4/5 types, the starters are ok. Not great, but ok to good. Maybe good enough to trade for a short term rental at the deadline.

But, it all depends on Ober/Ryan being ready day 1, one of them being a 3 or better, and getting a legit #2 type in FA/trade (and, preferably one more #3/4 type). 

But, it seems a LONG SHOT, and it might, might, be better to just get 1 legit veteran, and give all the young guys try outs and experience.

I was for trading for Means, but man, he has struggled in the 2nd half.

[D.C Twins]

22 hours ago, old nurse said:

Fake statistics. Gotta love it. Never mind that Buxton is quoted saying he wants to stay with the Twins.

Berrios had stated in the past that he wanted to test free agency and get as much money as he can. It really did not take much thinking to come up with he would be traded.

Um... It would be business malpractice for Buxton's agent (and himself) to say anything other than he 'wants' to return. You NEVER purposefully remove a potential bidder for your services just in case they drive up the price from somewhere else where you want to go.

You cannot take what someone tells you at face value... almost anywhere (insert ANY cable news show here). Remember, even your parents told you Santa Claus was real

There were A LOT of people on this site pontificating about how Berrios could/would be signed to an extension by the Twins... so I'm not sure that it is very fair for you to tell them that they were really not doing much thinking

 

[twinssporto]

9 hours ago, chopper0080 said:

The issue is that both the starting rotation and the bullpen look to be a mess. If the bullpen was solid I would think there would be a decent path to success. Trying to rebuild both is a different story.

Totally agree. This isn't just a starting rotation issue its a bullpen issue as well. We need LOTS of arms....Lots and lots of arms.