Gilberto Celestino's quiet dominance

[bean5302]

50 minutes ago, h2oface said:

...Larnach is still in a horrible hole since being back in AAA, and he hit great at that level before.

Larnach had 3 games at AAA to start the year. He'd never played in AAA before that. Prior to his call up, Larnach had a grand total of 46 games above A+ ball.

[h2oface]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Larnach had 3 games at AAA to start the year. He'd never played in AAA before that. Prior to his call up, Larnach had a grand total of 46 games above A+ ball.

Ahhhh. I remember now. Well, he certainly is still struggling since sent down. 6 hits in 36 ABs. .167 average for his 10 games (7 since demotion - .200 with 20 ABs and 10Ks - still 50% K rate) in AAA so far then. His doubles almost shut off in the 43 games at AA in 2019. He will also be 25 when next season starts..... not getting any younger. I hope he finds it again, soon. He had a nice start in the show.......

[RpR]

6 hours ago, h2oface said:

 

Larnach is still in a horrible hole since being back in AAA, and he hit great at that level before.

This is why all the blah-blah about bring up the rookies and let them see big league pitching is so obtuse.

That destroyed Billy Bean and can do more harm than good to the vast majority of rookies.

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

And to that matter, service time also factored into Celestino going back to the minors when he did.

His OPS in Minnesota was .466. That's a 28 OPS+ and a 22 wRC+. His demotion was not a service time consideration, it was a development decision.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, h2oface said:

Larnach is still in a horrible hole since being back in AAA, and he hit great at that level before.

Larnach has 30 plate appearances and a BABIP of .133 in St Paul. That's only seven games, or basically two bad series. One 3-for-5 day and his stat line looks great.

And given that he was demoted because he was in such a funk, it's not terribly surprising he hasn't rebounded immediately.

[Dodecahedron]

18 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

You flat out said service time factored into sending him down. That's a pretty unfounded guess. The guy has barely played above A ball and was hitting .136/.177/.288 in the majors. He needs quite a bit more development time.

Of course you realize it's also an unfounded guess that he wasn't sent down for that reason.

I know he needs more development time, read my other words on this subject.

[Dodecahedron]

18 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

Cave and Refsnyder both returned from injuries. They no longer needed to force an undercooked marginal prospect into the daily lineup. He belongs at AAA where he can focus on daily development.

Marginal prospect?  How many players are at A+ or above at age 20?!?

...

[Taildragger8791]

1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

Of course you realize it's also an unfounded guess that he wasn't sent down for that reason.

I know he needs more development time, read my other words on this subject.

If your argument is "you can't prove a negative" and "nobody can ever know anything for certain" then I don't know what we're even bothering to comment for. Maybe they sent him down because he clogs the locker room toilets and repeatedly hits on Rocco's wife. It's an unfounded guess to say that ISN'T the reasoning.

[Dodecahedron]

6 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

If your argument is "you can't prove a negative" and "nobody can ever know anything for certain" then I don't know what we're even bothering to comment for. Maybe they sent him down because he clogs the locker room toilets and repeatedly hits on Rocco's wife. It's an unfounded guess to say that ISN'T the reasoning.

I'm making the exact same statements you are making, simply flipped to the other viewpoint.  

I'm glad you see how annoying it is.

[Taildragger8791]

4 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Marginal prospect?  How many players are at A+ or above at age 20?!?

...

He's never appeared on any serious prospect lists. He wasn't ranked in Houston's top 30 prospects at any point that I could find. His calling card is supposedly defense which was pretty shaky when he was up with the Twins. Only recently has he started to pop up and look like maybe he could hang in the majors, but he has a ways to go. He's most likely outcome is 4th OF. So yes, marginal.

[Taildragger8791]

6 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I'm making the exact same statements you are making, simply flipped to the other viewpoint.  

I'm glad you see how annoying it is.

You're not making any sense. And I just don't see why you'd levy an accusation when there is plenty of reasonable doubt against it. There are plenty of other cases of service time manipulation to point to but this one just ain't it. Hiding behind "I'm not accusing, I'm just throwing it out there" is bad faith.

[Minny505]

Thanks for the update Brock!

National minor league evaluators, from Fangraphs, The Athletic, etc, have been saying the gap from AA to AAA (and also from AAA to the the Majors) is as pronounced as it has been in their time covering prospects.

For a 22 year year old to have that kind of walk rate, which is a fast stabilizing stat, against AAA competition is impressive, no matter the SSS caveat. His BABIP is also perfectly reasonable, even a little low for his speed. Even if his true talent hit tool is not this good, the kind of approach he is showing sets a very bullish floor with upside to run considering his age and the level he is succeeding at right now. 

He still may only be a 4th OF, but I feel his floor is now a 4th OF that can play good CF, that has a legit shot at being a 15 win CFer by age 30. At 22 years old, that's a valuable piece to have.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

I'm making the exact same statements you are making, simply flipped to the other viewpoint.  

I'm glad you see how annoying it is.

Accept that you can sometimes be wrong. You'll be happier in the long run.

I agree the Twins won't hesitate to make roster decisions based exclusively on service time. This wasn't one of those times. At all. He'd already missed over 60 days of service time this year before his call up so there wasn't any realistic potential impact to his service time for sending him back down under current rules. 

[h2oface]

7 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Larnach has 30 plate appearances and a BABIP of .133 in St Paul. That's only seven games, or basically two bad series. One 3-for-5 day and his stat line looks great.

And given that he was demoted because he was in such a funk, it's not terribly surprising he hasn't rebounded immediately.

Yes, I looked at all of those stats, and more that I posted earlier, as you can perhaps see in the thread. I don't know that one 3-5 day fixes it, but it will be a start, for sure, and yes, it seems that however short it has been, we agree and state stats to show it, that he is still in a hole.... or a funk.