We can't have nice things, episode 1740: Maeda to have elbow surgery

[yeahyabetcha]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Gant is 28 years old and has over 40 career MLB starts. I don't know how much more anyone needs to see of him as a starter, just look at the film.

Is there any film of an ineffective Strotman pitching in St Paul available?

[LA VIkes Fan]

18 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I don’t see anything wrong with stretching Gant out and looking at him as a starter.  Despite all the demands to promote others , the fact is none of them have been exactly been pitching all that well or at least consistent to demand a call up

Gant was 4-6, 3.42 ERA for the Cards this year, 25 appearances, 14 starts.  In 2018 he was 7-6, 3.47 ERA, 26 games, 19 starts. Reliever in 2019 and 2020. Had a 3.76 ERA as a starter for St. Louis, with a 5.17 FIPP (!), when sent to the bullpen a month to 6 weeks ago after 3 rough starts in 4 appearances. St. Louis was in contention at the time so they couldn't wait to let him work things out.  St. Louis apparently thought he could be a starter, at least for awhile. 

Look, I don't think Gant looks like a long term starter but there's no reason not to find that out. It's not like we're blessed with a multitude of SP candidates to audition. Ober and Jax are performing, Barnes is not and probably shouldn't be starting, Winder is hurt, Belazovic hasn't pitched above AA and he's been inconsistent there, Albers is 35 and limited at best, and we just got Strotman and Ryan. Did I miss anybody? Why not give Gant a 3-5 start run to build up his innings and see what we have? He at least has a track record of some success.  We're at the stage of throwing possible starters at the wall to see what sticks. Who knows? He might stick.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Gant was 4-6, 3.42 ERA for the Cards this year, 25 appearances, 14 starts.  In 2018 he was 7-6, 3.47 ERA, 26 games, 19 starts. Reliever in 2019 and 2020. Had a 3.76 ERA as a starter for St. Louis, with a 5.17 FIPP (!), when sent to the bullpen a month to 6 weeks ago after 3 rough starts in 4 appearances. St. Louis was in contention at the time so they couldn't wait to let him work things out.  St. Louis apparently thought he could be a starter, at least for awhile. 

Look, I don't think Gant looks like a long term starter but there's no reason not to find that out. It's not like we're blessed with a multitude of SP candidates to audition. Ober and Jax are performing, Barnes is not and probably shouldn't be starting, Winder is hurt, Belazovic hasn't pitched above AA and he's been inconsistent there, Albers is 35 and limited at best, and we just got Strotman and Ryan. Did I miss anybody? Why not give Gant a 3-5 start run to build up his innings and see what we have? He at least has a track record of some success.  We're at the stage of throwing possible starters at the wall to see what sticks. Who knows? He might stick.  

Don't let the surface stats fool you with John Gant as a starter. His 2021 FIP in St Louis was a painful 5.12 while his WHIP was an ungodly 1.572.

His ERA? 3.42.

That is a man that has flipped a coin and landed on heads 12 times in a row, not a good pitcher.

And he did that while being gifted a pitcher in the batter's box ~10% of the time.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Thanks for the info, Brock. That's more than I had. It sure doesn't look good, I agree. I still think that it's worth giving him some run as a starter given the alternatives. It's unlikely that he's a long term solution as a starter, although I do think he can be an effective middle reliver/long man type. Plus pitchers can get better over time. I would say that he "only" just turned 28, so his age isn't a deal breaker for me yet. 

With Maeda out, probably for the season, we have the opportunity to see what we can get out of these guys in the rotation so we know how badly we are set up for next year. Ober and Jax are successes that at least I would not have predicted. Burrows and (I think) Barnes, not successes and we should pull the plug on those experiments. Give Gant a shot and see whether he can improve. Call up Strotman and Ryan and give them 3-5 starts. I can't think of anyone else unless Winder is healthy enough for a look. Welcome to the rotation shuffle.    

[wsnydes]

13 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Don't let the surface stats fool you with John Gant as a starter. His 2021 FIP in St Louis was a painful 5.12 while his WHIP was an ungodly 1.572.

His ERA? 3.42.

That is a man that has flipped a coin and landed on heads 12 times in a row, not a good pitcher.

And he did that while being gifted a pitcher in the batter's box ~10% of the time.

This is what the eye test told me as well.  As a Cardinals fan as well, I've seen him pitch enough to realize that he had quite a bit of luck on his side.  In my mind, his game is better suited for the bullpen.  And he could end up being very effective there.  I think that AL lineups would eat him alive if in the rotation.  He'd likely fare better in the pen not having to face batters multiple times.

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Thanks for the info, Brock. That's more than I had. It sure doesn't look good, I agree. I still think that it's worth giving him some run as a starter given the alternatives. It's unlikely that he's a long term solution as a starter, although I do think he can be an effective middle reliver/long man type. Plus pitchers can get better over time. I would say that he "only" just turned 28, so his age isn't a deal breaker for me yet. 

With Maeda out, probably for the season, we have the opportunity to see what we can get out of these guys in the rotation so we know how badly we are set up for next year. Ober and Jax are successes that at least I would not have predicted. Burrows and (I think) Barnes, not successes and we should pull the plug on those experiments. Give Gant a shot and see whether he can improve. Call up Strotman and Ryan and give them 3-5 starts. I can't think of anyone else unless Winder is healthy enough for a look. Welcome to the rotation shuffle.    

The bullpen isn't good, either. Personally, I'd call up Albers for maybe one spot start and keep Gant in the bullpen because I think he actually has the potential to be a decent option there, not a stopgap.

And after getting one start out of Albers, I'd bump him for Dobnak or Ryan, whomever is ready first. Whenever the second option is ready (or maybe Strotman), I end the painful Charlie Barnes Experiment and put in the either guy.

In an ideal situation, all of this would happen in the next ten days.

[LA VIkes Fan]

What's interesting is that his WHIP has improved from 1.572 in St. Louis, 25 games, 14 starts, to 1.167, 8 games, 1 start. That does suggest that he might be a guy who doesn't have enough of a pitch variety to navigate through a lineup more than once. I saw him pitch and he seems to have a nice FB with good movement, although a bit wild, and not a lot else. 

[LA VIkes Fan]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The bullpen isn't good, either. Personally, I'd call up Albers for maybe one spot start and keep Gant in the bullpen because I think he actually has the potential to be a decent option there, not a stopgap.

And after getting one start out of Albers, I'd bump him for Dobnak or Ryan, whomever is ready first. Whenever the second option is ready (or maybe Strotman), I end the painful Charlie Barnes Experiment and put in the either guy.

In an ideal situation, all of this would happen in the next ten days.

This makes sense to me. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

23 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The bullpen isn't good, either. Personally, I'd call up Albers for maybe one spot start and keep Gant in the bullpen because I think he actually has the potential to be a decent option there, not a stopgap.

And after getting one start out of Albers, I'd bump him for Dobnak or Ryan, whomever is ready first. Whenever the second option is ready (or maybe Strotman), I end the painful Charlie Barnes Experiment and put in the either guy.

In an ideal situation, all of this would happen in the next ten days.

Albers is still on the roster, and I'm guessing he slots into Maeda's spot. But that still leaves a bullpen/Gant game, at least through this weekend -- Joe Ryan could slot in next Monday.

Strotman is a tough case. Yes, he's on the 40-man, and he's almost 25, but he has a 5.63 ERA 5 starts, 24 innings for the Saints, and his pro career numbers in general haven't been very good. Interesting to note that the Rays, a team with constant pitching staff churn, chose not to use Strotman in MLB at all this year, despite him already occupying a 40-man spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

An injury like this is never good, but this seems like a bad time too -- so close to the end of the season, there's probably not enough time to rest it and test it yet this year. So Maeda could be looking at a 2021 shutdown, then showing up next spring with this still hanging over him. And a spring 2022 surgery would likely wipe out a good portion of 2023 too (that's the timeline that Sale and Syndergaard are on this season).

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

They put Maeda on the IL yesterday, with Sano taking his spot.

What are Sano's pitching stats?

[Rosterman]

Balazovic should be at AAA, and also called in when/if they have a double-header day. Gant and Albers should do what they do best, relieve in short-inning starts. Strotman should be next callup. Let Dobnak pitch a couple of games in St. Paul. We saw what pushing Thorpe too fast did. At some point you add Ryan, but you have to jettison someone (imagine Maeda will go 60-day when results come abck). Sammons was also promoted to St. Paul for a reason (a hard look - he needs to be protected or lost in Rule 5 if he does good at St. Paul). I would be happy to see Ober and Barnes end their season at St. Paul. We have seen suitable innings on both, and they both are in the mix. But only if we need the roster spots.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ober, Jax, and NO ONE ELSE is the current list of SPs they are likely counting on next year (and Jax is a bit of a stretch, IMO). 

I'd add Ober to that stretch list as well. I understand the warm feelings from a pitching starved fan base, but I still view him as a fringe back end guy that can go either way at any time. Projected performance aside, this season might be the first time in 5 years that he's going to approach 100 IP. Even if he is the back end starter we hope, how much usage can the Twins realistically expect from him next season?

[Brock Beauchamp]

41 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'd add Ober to that stretch list as well. I understand the warm feelings from a pitching starved fan base, but I still view him as a fringe back end guy that can go either way at any time. Projected performance aside, this season might be the first time in 5 years that he's going to approach 100 IP. Even if he is the back end starter we hope, how much usage can the Twins realistically expect from him next season?

Agreed in that Ober is far from a sure thing but he has pretty much earned his 2022 rotation spot written in pen.

But that doesn’t mean he’ll be good long term - though I’m somewhat optimistic about him - only that he’ll start the season in Minnesota. 

[Mark G]

4 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Just looking at starters on the Saint's roster ... first, who is on the 40-man ... Burrows (I thought he was removed?), Duran (IL), Farrell (rehab assignment) and Strotman ... I think they will go with Strotman first. Dobnak has had 1 rehab start in Fort Myers, but he may be back up soon-ish. Then there are several not on the 40-man ... and of course, Ryan tops that list for me. Sheesh ... they gotta start trying these arms. This is just not good.

I couldn't agree more, but think about what you just laid out; we are totally unsure about who to keep on the 40 man, because we have no idea who is going to pan out and who is not?  And no proven starters signed for next year as of the end of August.   And don't forget we don't have a settled bullpen.......or settled SS......or know if we are keeping or trading Buxton.......I feel like I am watching the MN Twaints.   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I feel awful for Maeda and hope he gets a good prognosis…

how unbelievable. This team is cursed.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Now correct me if I am wrong, because I did not watch the game, but I've heard others mention that John Smoltz in the booth had mentioned that he was shaking his arm after 6 or 7 consecutive pitches and that it was very easy to see something was wrong and that no one from the Twins dugout came out to check on him. 

If true, this is ridiculous. If Smoltz notices then every coach on the Twins should have noticed. Are the coaches just sleepwalking through the remainder of the season?

 

there is a long quote below that addressed this. I’m not sure if Rocco deserves blame, or not… or if Maeda has been hurt all season and then Rocco should be strung up by his toes:

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/kenta-maeda-exits-with-arm-injury-in-twins-loss
 

“[It’s] something he’s dealt with on and off throughout this year,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said of Maeda’s forearm tightness. “He pitched pretty well today up until that point. I thought he had a good start going for himself, and even in that inning, up until that point, there was really not a lot to look to or point to or think about as far as any health questions.

Though Maeda could be seen visibly shaking his throwing arm in what appeared to be discomfort as the frame unfolded, Baldelli clarified that it’s something the veteran starter has done often this season. It wasn’t, in and of itself, a distressing sign. But Maeda’s glaring command woes did concern the skipper and his staff, convincing them that they “needed to get him out of the game.”

[PDX Twin]

5 hours ago, Danchat said:

They put Maeda on the IL yesterday, with Sano taking his spot.

Maybe that's the plan. Sano has a pretty good arm. Let him have a couple of starts!

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I'd add Ober to that stretch list as well. I understand the warm feelings from a pitching starved fan base, but I still view him as a fringe back end guy that can go either way at any time. Projected performance aside, this season might be the first time in 5 years that he's going to approach 100 IP. Even if he is the back end starter we hope, how much usage can the Twins realistically expect from him next season?

Sure, he's a stretch as a good pitcher, but he's a lock to make the rotation next spring, unless he's hurt. Or completely loses it. 

[notoriousgod71]

3 hours ago, Sconnie said:

I feel awful for Maeda and hope he gets a good prognosis…

how unbelievable. This team is cursed.

The Twins aren't cursed unless you mean they're cursed with a front office that jettisons effective pitchers and scours the scrapheap to not only fill out their AAA roster but their major league roster as well.

[KirbyDome89]

21 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Agreed in that Ober is far from a sure thing but he has pretty much earned his 2022 rotation spot written in pen.

But that doesn’t mean he’ll be good long term - though I’m somewhat optimistic about him - only that he’ll start the season in Minnesota. 

 

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, he's a stretch as a good pitcher, but he's a lock to make the rotation next spring, unless he's hurt. Or completely loses it. 

I don't think he's outside of the rotation next season either, the question is how much of Ober are they locking in? Can he get close to 150 IPs or are they going to have to limit his innings per outing and/or shut him down at some point? 

[sjunisu]

We will be fine in 2022 with Gil and Ynoa plugged into 2 slots - oh wait, they don't play for us anymore.  Never mind.

[Brock Beauchamp]

38 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

 

I don't think he's outside of the rotation next season either, the question is how much of Ober are they locking in? Can he get close to 150 IPs or are they going to have to limit his innings per outing and/or shut him down at some point? 

Hard to say in certainty but he should be ready for at least 130 IP. He’s at 80 IP this season and next year he’ll be 26 years old.

I’m more concerned with him reverting back to perpetually injured and not even hitting 100 IP, frankly. 

[nicksaviking]

On 8/24/2021 at 12:32 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

*groans*

There's a guy I wouldn't hesitate to replace with either Strotman or Ryan about five minutes from now.

I just don't get it. They say they want to compete next year but they are doing absolutely nothing to get ready for that. If he somehow recovers, Maeda would MAYBE be a #3 heading up against the other teams the Twins are supposedly contending against.

Yet they are only auditioning Jax, Ober, Barnes, Dobnak, Thorpe, Albers and Gant for next year? That's 100% completely backwards. Why are you looking to figure out your #5 starter or swingman when you are missing everyone above them? They are going about this completely wrong. This seems like the definition of being too far into the forest to see the trees. These zero upside guys may sometimes come with a nice story, or fill in for a spot start when the top guys are out, but they are the definition of replacement level players, just stop. 

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Hard to say in certainty but he should be ready for at least 130 IP. He’s at 80 IP this season and next year he’ll be 26 years old.

I’m more concerned with him reverting back to perpetually injured and not even hitting 100 IP, frankly. 

Sure, but I'd include injuries in the performance projections I set aside. 130 is probably the minimum, ideally it'd be 150ish with the 4 inning starts becoming 5, the 5 inning starts becoming a quality 6, ect. A full season with half of his starts sub 5 inning puts a lot of pressure on a bullpen and rotation. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Sure, but I'd include injuries in the performance projections I set aside. 130 is probably the minimum, ideally it'd be 150ish with the 4 inning starts becoming 5, the 5 inning starts becoming a quality 6, ect. A full season with half of his starts sub 5 inning puts a lot of pressure on a bullpen and rotation. 

I agree. Caution is important but he ramped up nicely this season and is smack-dab into his prime physical years. If healthy, he should be able to push past 130 IP pretty easily, IMO.

The decrease in IP hasn't corresponded with decreased injuries so pushing further in the direction of caution seems foolhardy and counter-productive.

[sjunisu]

12 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I just don't get it. They say they want to compete next year but they are doing absolutely nothing to get ready for that. If he somehow recovers, Maeda would MAYBE be a #3 heading up against the other teams the Twins are supposedly contending against.

Yet they are only auditioning Jax, Ober, Barnes, Dobnak, Thorpe, Albers and Gant for next year? That's 100% completely backwards. Why are you looking to figure out your #5 starter or swingman when you are missing everyone above them? They are going about this completely wrong. This seems like the definition of being too far into the forest to see the trees. These zero upside guys may sometimes come with a nice story, or fill in for a spot start when the top guys are out, but they are the definition of replacement level players, just stop. 

Winner winner chicken dinner.  If we don't see both Ryan and Strotman before the end of the month it will be almost criminal.  Should also see a couple other of our 'high-upside' minor leaguers as well.  If not, the beginning of next year will not be pretty to say the least (and may still not even with seeing these guys).  History tells us we will not see even 1 high priced free agent pitcher, so that means the rotation has to be filled primarily with internal choices (at this point given Maeda's condition we are talking about 5 new starters compared to beginning of 2021) - but the best of these choices have not even experienced big league hitting as of yet.....

[gunnarthor]

I'm not sure people realize how bad the pitching the Twins have this year has been. -5 WAR from the staff. Berrios will lead the team in innings pitched by a substantial amount. We might only have two pitchers top 100 innings this year. And not a lot of immediate hope on the horizon. Unless the FO buys 5-6 impact arms in the offseason, this team won't compete next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

17 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I'm not sure people realize how bad the pitching the Twins have this year has been. -5 WAR from the staff. Berrios will lead the team in innings pitched by a substantial amount. We might only have two pitchers top 100 innings this year. And not a lot of immediate hope on the horizon. Unless the FO buys 5-6 impact arms in the offseason, this team won't compete next year.

I don't know about 5-6 "impact" arms but they need several arms at or above league average.

IMO, the real difference rides on, FOR ONCE, one (or more!) Twins prospects to come to the majors and succeed immediately.

I know that seems impossible but as a person who watches quite a bit of non-Twins baseball, I assure everyone it has happened before.

[gunnarthor]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't know about 5-6 "impact" arms but they need several arms at or above league average.

IMO, the real difference rides on, FOR ONCE, one (or more!) Twins prospects to come to the majors and succeed immediately.

I know that seems impossible but as a person who watches quite a bit of non-Twins baseball, I assure everyone it has happened before.

Who? Strotman and Ryan are nice arms but they aren't front of the rotation types. We don't have any of those in the system unless you squint really hard on Woods-Richardson.

I'm convinced the Twins hope to create a staff where the starter goes 4-5 innings and then we turn it over the bullpen. Every night. As you said in another thread, that's really bad for baseball.