Dozier vs. Escobar: Strib Article

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Demotion motivates Dozier into new position | StarTribune.com

 

From the story: "He’s (Dozier) headed north as the starting second baseman after a strong spring during which he established himself as the clear choice."

 

Is there a genius out there who can explain to me how he is the clear choice over Eduardo Escobar when Escobar is batting .346 this spring to Dozier's .276? And Escobar, unlike Dozier, is not learning how to play 2B but has actually been doing it for years and has already established himself as capable at playing the infield in the majors?

[stringer bell]

It is spring training. Who has Escobar gotten his hits from? Were they all singles? With such a small sample size, one good game can change someone's line from marginal to outstanding. I hope Escobar can develop into a regular infielder, but the signs I'm seeing say "utility guy".

[70charger]

Let's also not forget that defense is worth way more in the middle infield, and Dozier has sure passed the eyeball test this spring. You point out the batting average, but I think we've got to look at more of the picture.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Let's also not forget that defense is worth way more in the middle infield, and Dozier has sure passed the eyeball test this spring. You point out the batting average, but I think we've got to look at more of the picture.

 

Well, I haven't seen him enough to know myself But I was under the impression that he is supposed to be good defensively. I know there has been a lot of raves about Dozier defensively this spring, but isn't that all relative to the fact that he has only played like 47 games at second base before the spring?

[twinsfaninsaudi]

It is spring training. Who has Escobar gotten his hits from? Were they all singles? With such a small sample size, one good game can change someone's line from marginal to outstanding. I hope Escobar can develop into a regular infielder, but the signs I'm seeing say "utility guy".

 

Well who has Dozier gotten hits from? I think Escobar has started just as much as Dozier has, usually they're facing the more MLB caliber pitchers at the beginning of the games. I think it is appropriate to question Gardenhire on this decision, especially if Dozier struggles. Again!

[stringer bell]

Well, I haven't seen him enough to know myself But I was under the impression that he is supposed to be good defensively. I know there has been a lot of raves about Dozier defensively this spring, but isn't that all relative to the fact that he has only played like 47 games at second base before the spring?

It never was an open competition IMHO. Before ST started, the Twins were willing to give second base to Dozier to start the season if he showed he could play there defensively. He has shown that. His hitting has come on as the spring has gone along. Escobar competed for and won a utility job. He'll get his chances and if someone fails (I'd pick Florimon), he will probably get a chance to win a starting job.

[stringer bell]

It never was an open competition IMHO. Before ST started, the Twins were willing to give second base to Dozier to start the season if he showed he could play there defensively. He has shown that. His hitting has come on as the spring has gone along. Escobar competed for and won a utility job. He'll get his chances and if someone fails (I'd pick Florimon), he will probably get a chance to win a starting job.

FWIW, Dozier is outOPSing Escobar .813 to .756, but as I said before, it is just spring training. The real proof starts on Monday.

[Badsmerf]

Well, I haven't seen him enough to know myself But I was under the impression that he is supposed to be good defensively. I know there has been a lot of raves about Dozier defensively this spring, but isn't that all relative to the fact that he has only played like 47 games at second base before the spring?

No, he has been legitimately good. I caught one game last week where he made a play on a ball behind Morneau and flipped the ball with his glove between his legs to get the runner. It was pretty awesome. Regardless, Escobar will get his chances.

[Drtwins]

Why is this thread Dozier vs. Escobar, it should be Florimon vs. Escobar. Dozier has done better then expected in the field and is hitting the ball solid with his .813 OPS. I agree Escobar has been excellent this spring as well. Florimon is the one who can't hit the ball, is expected not to bat above .250, and yet is given the job.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Why is this thread Dozier vs. Escobar, it should be Florimon vs. Escobar. Dozier has done better then expected in the field and is hitting the ball solid with his .813 OPS. I agree Escobar has been excellent this spring as well. Florimon is the one who can't hit the ball, is expected not to bat above .250, and yet is given the job.

 

Fair enough.

[cmathewson]

It is spring training. Who has Escobar gotten his hits from? Were they all singles? With such a small sample size, one good game can change someone's line from marginal to outstanding. I hope Escobar can develop into a regular infielder, but the signs I'm seeing say "utility guy".

 

He hasn't had many 0-fers. He's hit a few doubles. But most of his hits are singles. I'd have to look at the Gameday archives to see off of whom he got his hits. Many of them were off of minor leaguers, I'm sure.

[Mr. Brooks]

It is spring training. Who has Escobar gotten his hits from? Were they all singles? With such a small sample size, one good game can change someone's line from marginal to outstanding. I hope Escobar can develop into a regular infielder, but the signs I'm seeing say "utility guy".

 

BBR has a stat in its ST line called OppQual, which measures the quality of pitcher a hitter is facing (and vice versa).

Escobar has an 8.5 this spring(8 is AAA, 10 is MLB), while Dozier has an 8.7, so they have both faced roughly the same quality of pitchers.

Dozier has 9 singles, 4 doubles and 2 HR in 54 AB's, while Escobar has 15 singles, and 3 doubles in 52 AB's.

[big dog]

Dozier is also almost two years older, so it's time to see if he's going to make it. It's not too hard to imagine a middle infield of Carroll and Escobar by mid-season, but hopefully everybody plays reasonably well and people get playing time because they deserve it rather than because the other players can't handle it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well who has Dozier gotten hits from? I think Escobar has started just as much as Dozier has, usually they're facing the more MLB caliber pitchers at the beginning of the games. I think it is appropriate to question Gardenhire on this decision, especially if Dozier struggles. Again!

 

Slash line for Escobar:

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TD=align: right].346[/TD]

[TD=align: right].352[/TD]

[TD=align: right].404[/TD]

[TD=align: right].756[/TD]

[/TABLE]

Slash line for Dozier:

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: hl]

[TD=align: right].278[/TD]

[TD=align: right].350[/TD]

[TD=align: right].463[/TD]

[TD=align: right].813[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

What looks more sustainable to you? The guy with a ridiculous BA, no walks, and no power, or the guy with a modest BA, solid discipline, and a little pop?

 

Dozier has outplayed Escobar. Batting Average is an awful metric to use on its own.

[edavis0308]

Someone is actually lobbying for Escobar to be starting? Though I don't agree with it, it certainly is nice to see a fresh take on something that doesnt involve the starting pitching, Hicks as a starter, or Butera.

[cmathewson]

Why is this thread Dozier vs. Escobar, it should be Florimon vs. Escobar. Dozier has done better then expected in the field and is hitting the ball solid with his .813 OPS. I agree Escobar has been excellent this spring as well. Florimon is the one who can't hit the ball, is expected not to bat above .250, and yet is given the job.

 

Why is hitting over .250 the bellwether for a decent shortstop? Omar Vizquel didn't manage to hit over .250 in eight of his 24 years, and he's a sure thing Hall of Famer. Only twice in his career did he have an OPS+ over 100, which is the water line for offensive players. Greg Gagne never had an OPS+ over 100, and he's considered the best Twins shortstop since Zoilo Versalles. Zoilo had a career average of .246.

 

I'm not a fan of BA as a stat in general. But it's especially bad for shortstops. If he hits .220/.280/.320/600 I'd be thrilled with his performance, given his defense. Escobar might hit a little better, but he won't make as many outs in the field. With this line-up and pitching staff, that's more important this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why is hitting over .250 the bellwether for a decent shortstop? Omar Vizquel didn't manage to hit over .250 in eight of his 24 years, and he's a sure thing Hall of Famer. Only twice in his career did he have an OPS+ over 100, which is the water line for offensive players. Greg Gagne never had an OPS+ over 100, and he's considered the best Twins shortstop since Zoilo Versalles. Zoilo had a career average of .246.

 

I'm not a fan of BA as a stat in general. But it's especially bad for shortstops. If he hits .220/.280/.320/600 I'd be thrilled with his performance, given his defense. Escobar might hit a little better, but he won't make as many outs in the field. With this line-up and pitching staff, that's more important this year.

 

And that's why you never use BA as the sole metric of player performance.

 

 

(Vizquel, after his breakout season in 1992, did not hit under .250 again until 2003, his age 36 season)

[Nick Nelson]

The answer is that Dozier has a chance to be above-average at the position offensively and Escobar really doesn't. The Twins can only afford so many no-hit defensive specialists in their starting lineup.

[spideyo]

I've been pushing for Escobar to be a starter since before Spring Training FWIW. That said, I think he would have had to make Dozier look like a little leaguer to take 2B from him. Like Plouffe before him, they gave Dozier a chance at SS and I think they've decided they don't want him there. If he didn't stick at 2b, he'd probably be back at Rochester.

 

Escobar on the other hand, could easily take over SS from Florimon if he slumps a little, and is also able to fill in at 2b or 3b. Much more useful guy on the bench than Dozier would be

[CDog]

Omar Vizquel ... and he's a sure thing Hall of Famer.

 

Is that true? Am I mis-remembering how good he was? I don't want to de-rail the thread with a tangent, but I guess I don't think of him that way. My impression is he's a steady-Eddie that played forever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is that true? Am I mis-remembering how good he was? I don't want to de-rail the thread with a tangent, but I guess I don't think of him that way. My impression is he's a steady-Eddie that played forever.

 

He's almost guaranteed to be a first-ballot guy in the vein of Ozzie Smith.

[stringer bell]

Is that true? Am I mis-remembering how good he was? I don't want to de-rail the thread with a tangent, but I guess I don't think of him that way. My impression is he's a steady-Eddie that played forever.

Vizquel is marginal for the HOF. He didn't get to 3000 hits and offensively he wasn't ever elite, he was a fine defender for a long time and developed into a good, not great, offensive player.

[ThePuck]

He's almost guaranteed to be a first-ballot guy in the vein of Ozzie Smith.

 

If not he sure should be...the guy was amazing on defense. Not quite Wizard of Oz amazing, but surely really close behind him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Vizquel is marginal for the HOF. He didn't get to 3000 hits and offensively he wasn't ever elite, he was a fine defender for a long time and developed into a good, not great, offensive player.

 

I don't see it that way at all. I think he'll easily be voted in because of his glove and the fact that he was the antithesis to the steroid problem of the 90s.

 

Whether he deserves it is another issue entirely... I know that there's a zero chance I'd vote for Vizquel before Bonds, McGwire, or the rash of other steroid cases who were absolutely dominant during the time.

[CDog]

He's almost guaranteed to be a first-ballot guy in the vein of Ozzie Smith.

 

I'm going to start a new thread on this in the More Baseball forum so we can leave this thread to Twins MI...

[ashbury]

The Twins can only afford so many no-hit defensive specialists in their starting lineup.

 

Escobar has a chance to be a table-setter. Which still is a lower ceiling than Dozier has. But a lot better than Florimon's, IMO.