Noah Syndergaard Vs Top 5 FA SS

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I can understand where you're coming from. I present Yu Darvish. Which one would you rather have? Darvish (31) circa 2018 or Syndergaard (26) circa 2022? There are no real questions about Syndergaard's 2019 IMO. 3.38 xERA, 3.60 FIP. His "ERA" makes no sense.

I'm not sure how Darvish circa 2017 is comparable to Syndergaard now. Darvish had his surgery in March 2015, returned in June 2016, and spent a season and a half as a solid, healthy starting pitcher before he hit free agency after 2017. Syndergaard had his surgery in March 2020, had a rehab setback in June 2021, and will be 2 years removed from his last MLB start (or significant innings) when he hits free agency after 2021. Also, while Syndergaard is younger, he's not quite that young -- he turns 29 in a week, 2 years younger than Darvish circa August 2017. Which is more important, 2 years of age, or 2 calendar years without pitching/starting? The overall free agent market might have been more favorable to players in 2017 than 2021 too.

Syndergaard was still effective in 2019, but his K% was dropping steadily from 2016-2019, even as the league K% was rising. Maybe not a big deal by itself, but it doesn't take much of a performance question to put the kibosh on a long-term deal right now, given the setback, absence, and market issues noted above.

[lukeduke1980]

I just don't think signing a SS is realistic with the Yankees and Dodgers in the market for 2 of them.  Potentially the Cubs also, and I bet a team like Detroit gets in on a Baez.  Go for Thor or at least pitching in general. 

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, lukeduke1980 said:

I just don't think signing a SS is realistic with the Yankees and Dodgers in the market for 2 of them.  Potentially the Cubs also, and I bet a team like Detroit gets in on a Baez.  Go for Thor or at least pitching in general. 

The Dodgers solved that problem by trading for Trea Turner, who will be in his last arbitration season in 2022. They planned ahead knowing full well Seager was going to be lost in free agency. The Yankees are always a threat I suppose. If the Tigers can pay up and sign one of these players with the albatross Cabrera contract on their books, we’ve got big problems. 

[KirbyDome89]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:39 AM, bean5302 said:

There's no reason to sign one player when the one signing won't make the difference for the team.

Huh?

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The Dodgers solved that problem by trading for Trea Turner, who will be in his last arbitration season in 2022. They planned ahead knowing full well Seager was going to be lost in free agency. The Yankees are always a threat I suppose. If the Tigers can pay up and sign one of these players with the albatross Cabrera contract on their books, we’ve got big problems. 

I wouldn't rule out the Dodgers so easily. Corey Seager at 3B and Trea Turner at SS is going to be mighty tempting to them. Justin Turner is 36 and, while still productive, isn't going to be around forever. Add in the DH in the NL and being able to move Trea all around the field and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion at all that they aren't in on Seager, or another big name SS.

And even if they don't sign one of the top 5 guys, they're smart enough to throw their name in the hat and raise the prices on those guys.

[Vanimal46]

44 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I wouldn't rule out the Dodgers so easily. Corey Seager at 3B and Trea Turner at SS is going to be mighty tempting to them. Justin Turner is 36 and, while still productive, isn't going to be around forever. Add in the DH in the NL and being able to move Trea all around the field and I don't think it's a foregone conclusion at all that they aren't in on Seager, or another big name SS.

And even if they don't sign one of the top 5 guys, they're smart enough to throw their name in the hat and raise the prices on those guys.

Always possible, but they would have to get rid of Turner’s contract and several others to get under the luxury tax. On spotrac I see they’re at $309 million. Even teams like the Dodgers who can afford a $500 million payroll are smart enough to avoid luxury tax penalties 2 years in a row. 

Scherzer will be off the books, maybe Bauer’s contract is voided after his allegations. They still have a long ways to go to afford Seager and fall below $210 million. 

[old nurse]

48 million in contracts, 6 arb eligible players. 1.25 million buyout. The corner outfielders and backups are not even arb eligible, nor is the second catcher , nor Arraez. The same holds true for the back of the bullpen. The Twins can afford a high level starter, SS and bullpen  addition. It is not either or

[Greglw3]

On 8/19/2021 at 10:17 AM, Alex Wilde said:

There has been quite a bit of discussion on this site about fans wanting the Twins to sign both a top end starter, as well as a cornerstone player at SS. This FO seems unlikely to spend big on two players given that their last big FA signing in Donaldson didn’t necessarily turn out as they had hoped. Now don’t get me wrong, I love Donaldson’s fire and he’s been playing well when he’s on the field, but it’s hard to pay a 35 year-old guy this much when he’s got lingering problems with injuries. Now my question to you all is, who would you rather have on the Twins for the next few seasons, Noah Syndergaard coming off of TJ or a top 5 FA SS? I would lean towards taking the risk signing Syndergaard and signing a good defensive SS or giving Palacios a chance in spring training to open the 2022 season as the starting SS. The hope would be to have Syndergaard anchor your starting rotation with Maeda and possibly Pineda behind him. Followed by Ober and one or two young arms like Winder, Strotman, Ryan, Jax, Duran, or Balazovic. I like the upside here with the rotation and the likelihood of keeping a great lineup (when healthy) to help the Twins stay in contention next season. Palacios has at least earned a promotion to AAA to end this season and should be given a chance to make the big league roster next season. If push comes to shove, signing a good defensive shortstop to another 1 year deal wouldn’t be a detriment to the 2022 season either. Let me know what y’all think below!

I think you’ve got it exactly right. A pitcher of Syndergaard’s stature is much more important than taking a shot at a SS. I agree Palacios deserves a chance. An 18 HR SS - that’s impressive. Plus Polanco can move back to SS and use Arraez and/or Gordon at 2B. I believe that Polanco hs great range at SS when healthy but has had some problems with errors. I think in the second half of 2019, he had improved  his throwing.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Huh?

When what you have right now is likely a 72-90 team which is the 2022 Twins as it stands, signing one player is stupid. One player doesn't make a difference. All it does is spend money. Though, if the $100MM floor comes into play, the Twins are going to have to make some big signings not to be penalized.

[Greglw3]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

When what you have right now is likely a 72-90 team which is the 2022 Twins as it stands, signing one player is stupid. One player doesn't make a difference. All it does is spend money. Though, if the $100MM floor comes into play, the Twins are going to have to make some big signings not to be penalized.

With only 5 players being in a starting rotation and with the extremely questionable state of the Twins rotation, one player can make a significant difference. Noah Syndergaard would be a good signing.

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Always possible, but they would have to get rid of Turner’s contract and several others to get under the luxury tax. On spotrac I see they’re at $309 million. Even teams like the Dodgers who can afford a $500 million payroll are smart enough to avoid luxury tax penalties 2 years in a row. 

Scherzer will be off the books, maybe Bauer’s contract is voided after his allegations. They still have a long ways to go to afford Seager and fall below $210 million. 

I haven't looked recently, but I feel like when I checked before they "only" had 150M guaranteed for next year. I'm certainly not predicting he stays, but I don't think it's a done deal that they don't keep him or sign another big name guy. Maybe they extend Trea and that's their move. Who knows. I just never count out the richest team with the best FO guy in the game on anything.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

The Dodgers solved that problem by trading for Trea Turner, who will be in his last arbitration season in 2022. They planned ahead knowing full well Seager was going to be lost in free agency. The Yankees are always a threat I suppose. If the Tigers can pay up and sign one of these players with the albatross Cabrera contract on their books, we’ve got big problems. 

The Tigers have 9 players with contracts or that are in arbitration.  The total for those 9 players is just a touch over $50M.  The rest of their players are prearb so roughly another $10M.  Therefore, their entire 2022 payroll is roughly $60M.  Their ability to add payroll won't dictate their interest in adding any given free agent.

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

When what you have right now is likely a 72-90 team which is the 2022 Twins as it stands, signing one player is stupid. One player doesn't make a difference. All it does is spend money. Though, if the $100MM floor comes into play, the Twins are going to have to make some big signings not to be penalized.

How so?  Estimating Rodgers / Buxton / Garver / Duffy and Arraez at a total of $22.5M the Twins would have an $86M payroll.  This assumes league minimum is raised to $650K, Simmons is replaced by a league minimum player and Colome is bought out.  

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I'm not sure how Darvish circa 2017 is comparable to Syndergaard now. Darvish had his surgery in March 2015, returned in June 2016, and spent a season and a half as a solid, healthy starting pitcher before he hit free agency after 2017. Syndergaard had his surgery in March 2020, had a rehab setback in June 2021, and will be 2 years removed from his last MLB start (or significant innings) when he hits free agency after 2021. Also, while Syndergaard is younger, he's not quite that young -- he turns 29 in a week, 2 years younger than Darvish circa August 2017. Which is more important, 2 years of age, or 2 calendar years without pitching/starting? The overall free agent market might have been more favorable to players in 2017 than 2021 too.

Syndergaard was still effective in 2019, but his K% was dropping steadily from 2016-2019, even as the league K% was rising. Maybe not a big deal by itself, but it doesn't take much of a performance question to put the kibosh on a long-term deal right now, given the setback, absence, and market issues noted above.

I don't share your memory of Darvish being free of major concerns. His ask was $180MM He was projected to get at least $150MM despite them but all the major players stayed out of the bidding. Instead he got 6 years $126MM with unrealistic escalators to $150MM for ages 31-37.

• 2014 Darvish misses last 2 months with elbow inflammation
• 2015 Darvish declared healthy through batting practices and into Spring Training. Pitches 1 inning, sprains his UCL and undergoes TJ surgery a week later.
• 2016 Darvish returns 12 months after UCL surgery (very quickly) and pitches excellent, but is no longer pitching deep into games with regularity.
• 2017 Darvish, in his age 30 season sees a big drop off in K rate and a spike in HR rate. His ERA, and FIPs jump. He is traded to the Dodgers and pitches very poorly to start, and in his regular season time there, pitches even fewer innings making it through the 6th inning on 4 of 9 starts. Darvish then gets shelled in the playoffs leading to speculation he was in decline and/or hurt. Speculation on him tipping pitches emerged as well.

Syndergaard's 6 week setback is a non-issue for me, and I'd believe just about everybody else. A 26 year old returning from TJ in 15 months is still pretty quick. YMMV on which peripherals you choose to value. I see Syndergaard pitched nearly 200 innings in 2019, saw an uptick in his K rate the last 2 months of the season along with the best walk rates of his career during the span and peripherals which suggested he was still excellent at age 26. As a GM, I'd sign Syndergaard at 5 / $125MM in a heartbeat if he shows good velocity and results in September this year. Of course, I similarly viewed Darvish largely as the victim of luck and I was furious about it when the Twins didn't sign him.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

When what you have right now is likely a 72-90 team which is the 2022 Twins as it stands, signing one player is stupid. One player doesn't make a difference. All it does is spend money. Though, if the $100MM floor comes into play, the Twins are going to have to make some big signings not to be penalized.

1. Money not spent next year isn't carried over into subsequent years

2. Not investing $$ into being a better team because the outlook isn't ideal is a good way to ensure you're in a perpetual state of poor to mediocre performance. 

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Always possible, but they would have to get rid of Turner’s contract and several others to get under the luxury tax. On spotrac I see they’re at $309 million. Even teams like the Dodgers who can afford a $500 million payroll are smart enough to avoid luxury tax penalties 2 years in a row. 

Scherzer will be off the books, maybe Bauer’s contract is voided after his allegations. They still have a long ways to go to afford Seager and fall below $210 million. 

If Bauer’s contract is voided they have 190 million coming off the books

[Thegrin]

Neither.  Go for 1 reasonably priced arm and resign Pineda.  Let Polanco play SS so Arraez can play 2B  Lets see how these AAAA pitchers play out.

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't share your memory of Darvish being free of major concerns.

No player is free of concerns, and I didn't mean to suggest that. But Syndergaard would be the first free agent SP in history to get a 5/125 deal without starting a game for 2 years, right? And only pitching a handful of bullpen innings, if he manages to return in September. And like you brought up, Syndergaard will have a QO attached, reducing his leverage -- something Darvish did not have, due to being traded midseason.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

.

• 2016 Darvish returns 12 months after UCL surgery (very quickly) and pitches excellent, but is no longer pitching deep into games with regularity.

Syndergaard's 6 week setback is a non-issue for me, and I'd believe just about everybody else. A 26 year old returning from TJ in 15 months is still pretty quick. YMMV on which peripherals you choose to value. I see Syndergaard pitched nearly 200 innings in 2019, saw an uptick in his K rate the last 2 months of the season along with the best walk rates of his career during the span and peripherals which suggested he was still excellent at age 26. As a GM, I'd sign Syndergaard at 5 / $125MM in a heartbeat if he shows good velocity and results in September this year. Of course, I similarly viewed Darvish largely as the victim of luck and I was furious about it when the Twins didn't sign him.

Again, Syndergaard turns 29 in a week. I guess he had the surgery when he was 27 and a half, but he's not 26 anymore (none of us are  ).

I don't know where you are getting your other info either, but Darvish didn't return to MLB until 14 months and 11 days after the day of his TJ surgery. Pretty much the same track that Syndergaard was on until he got shut down with elbow inflammation (a "6 week" shutdown that is now at 12 weeks, although I did see that he threw 15-20 pitches off a mound a couple days ago). The shutdown isn't necessarily anything to worry about long-term, but it does impact the near-term issue of his free agent market.

Also not sure where you are seeing "an uptick in K rate the last two months" of 2019 -- Syndergaard had the exact same K% (24.3%) and K/9 (9.2) in August-September of 2019 as he did in March-July of that year. And Syndergaard pitching 197.2 innings in 32 starts that year is statistically pretty much identical to Darvish throwing 186.2 in 31 starts in 2017. It's a difference of less than half of an out per start.

Nothing against Syndergaard, I agree with you that he could be pretty good going forward.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

1. Money not spent next year isn't carried over into subsequent years

2. Not investing $$ into being a better team because the outlook isn't ideal is a good way to ensure you're in a perpetual state of poor to mediocre performance. 

My point that seems to be wildly confusing to people: 74-86 with a single signing of a shortstop isn't any different to me than 72-90. If the Twins don't address other areas of concern, like their rotation, they still look like the 4-5 finishers in the division.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

...Again, Syndergaard turns 29 in a week. I guess he had the surgery when he was 27 and a half, but he's not 26 anymore (none of us are  )...

...Also not sure where you are seeing "an uptick in K rate the last two months" of 2019 -- Syndergaard had the exact same K% (24.3%) and K/9 (9.2) in August-September of 2019 as he did in March-July of that year. And Syndergaard pitching 197.2 innings in 32 starts that year is statistically pretty much identical to Darvish throwing 186.2 in 31 starts in 2017. It's a difference of less than half of an out per start...

I have got to take more time reading baseball reference's lines. Age 26 season in 2019 threw me off as I was pulling data. I messed up the age on Simeon overstating his age the other day, too.

Syndergaard' s season K rate was 9.20 K/9. I included his July 30th start. (7/30-9/30), though any date chosen is a bit arbitrary. I could have used the ASG break forward 9.74 K/9 or my choice 7/30 forward at 9.63 K/9 just as you used your sample which started with 2 of the worst strikeout games he had all year. 

 

[beckmt]

Resigning or not resigning Buxton will determine the course for next year.  Donaldson if not traded will play a little 3rd base and DH.  If you do not resign and therefore trade Buxton, you might as well use next year to see what you have and fill the holes the following year.  trade some excess minor leaguers for more pitching depth.  Twins at this time have about a dozen pitchers, we need to find out what we have before we make another major mistake.  After bumps in the road, cleveland's pitching is picking up, and maybe a trade of sending one or two of our prospect outfields to them in return for some of their pitching makes sense.  Baez to me is not an option at SS and we will not spend to get one of the other 4.  We will also not take the risk on Sundergard, but maybe we should (though a QA will somewhat kill that). You might need to spend some significant dollars in the bullpen because it is too much to hope that 4 or 5 of the Twins minor leaguers will take the next step all at one time.

[TopGunn#22]

That's my prognosis for the FO's off season plan.  

#1  Buxton.  He needs to be locked up and Rosaries handed out for good health going forward.  As I've said, with Buxton's injury history, but his undeniable talent starting to manifest, a contract loaded with incentives for games played each season (because we KNOW, if he plays, good things happen) that helps Buxton get paid commensurate with his talent and also protects the team from paying a LOT of money for frequent IL stints should not be as difficult as negotiating Middle East Peace.

There is enough hitting talent on this team to compete.  heck, they are #4 or #5 in the Major Leagues in HR's.  With the exception of Arraez and Polanco (and possibly Donaldson) NONE of them look like they have any clue or plan AB to AB.  We need a new hitting coach.  Guys like Kepler and Sano just have too much potential to look as bad as they have.  I know batting average isn't valued much nowadays, but the Twins just have to start making more consistent contact.  Figure out an approach that sacrifices a little power to beat the shift more consistently and stop killing two on, nobody out innings with back to back K's on 3 pitches each.

When baseball teams are "competitive" they pitch.  Just look at a history of the Twins from the 60's to the present.  The Twins have generally always been a team that hits.  But when they're relevant, they PITCH.  They will have some money to play with this off-season.  There are indications that the division they dominated in 2019 & 2020 is slipping away from them.  The White Sox have a GOOD team.  They needed a closer and went out and signed former Twin Liam Hendricks.  We signed Colome.  They needed a SP and signed Lance Lynn.  We signed Happ & Shoemaker.  The Tigers have some really nice young SP's who are starting to come around.  Cleveland has been missing Bieber most of this season and is still waaay ahead of us in the standings.  The Twins have their work cut out.  This is on the Pohlads, the FO and Rocco.  They had an epically BAD off-season and it shows on the field, in the standings and at Target Field with attendance (a Saints ticket is harder to get than a Twins ticket, literally, is THIS what the Pohlads want)??  We have a TON of young arms with potential, but no big league track record and some health issues.  A #1 Starting Pitcher is essential.  We've listed many possibilities.  Another #3ish  is needed.  We've suggested Pineda or something similar.  There are plenty of young arms and Dobnak (I haven't completely given up on him yet, but with the talent coming up behind him, he either breaks out next year or he's gone) to fill the #4 & #5 spots.  And some of those young arms could get their feet wet in the BP.  AND, at least one reliable, stud closer type and a middling "Clippard" type to "lengthen" the BP.  Are the Pohlad's serious enough to enable the FO to do what needs to be done.  The FO always says "We're under no restrictions from the Pohlad's regarding payroll."  REALLY ??  Prove it.  Identify the problem areas.  Identify potential fixes.  Identify the best talent to effect those fixes.  Execute.  I myself have grown very weary of all this BS double-talk from the Twins.  We gave them Target Field on a silver platter to ensure we would be consistently competitive.  The history of the Twins since the 2004 season up to present is to never make a bold enough move to put us over the hump.  We wasted the Santana, Mauer, Mourneau years and it looks like we squandered the "Cruz" years as examples.  What's it gonna be Pohlad's ??  The White Sox showed an urgency last off-season that was breathtaking.  We yawned.  They passed us like a speeding bullet.  Either get serious or watch your "investment" tank !!.  Give your FO the means to accomplish the task.  At that point, it's on THEM.  If they have another epic fail like this last off-season's dismal failure (or like the turd they handed Paul Molitor with Logan Morrison and an out of shape Lynn) then it's time to fire FalVine and bring in a new team.  And Rocco's seat should be VERY warm once the 2022 season is done.  He's been out-managed all season long.  Look at the Giants or Mariners.  Now there's a manager earning their paycheck.  Even with all that's gone wrong this year, we shouldn't be THIS bad.  And our effort against the Yankees these first two games ?  Well that says it all.  

[nicksaviking]

23 hours ago, bean5302 said:

When what you have right now is likely a 72-90 team which is the 2022 Twins as it stands, signing one player is stupid. One player doesn't make a difference. All it does is spend money. Though, if the $100MM floor comes into play, the Twins are going to have to make some big signings not to be penalized.

The Twins likely aren’t even a 90 loss team this year. 90 losses next year doesn’t actually sound likely at all.

But that’s really immaterial. If you’re signing a big time free agent, you likely aren’t signing him for one year. Most contenders build their clubs over a series of years, not all at once.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins likely aren’t even a 90 loss team this year. 90 losses next year doesn’t actually sound likely at all.

But that’s really immaterial. If you’re signing a big time free agent, you likely aren’t signing him for one year. Most contenders build their clubs over a series of years, not all at once.

The Twins are on pace to finish this season 70-92. They play 18 of their last 37 games against AL East teams fighting to make the playoffs. They only have 1 non-divisional team under .500 on the schedule. 

The Twins do not have Berrios or Cruz on the team next year. Replacing them, if the Twins don't go to free agency will be Joe Ryan and Brent Rooker. If the Twins are going to return in 2022 with all guys who are currently under team control, the expectation they're not losing 90 games is completely irrational to me.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins are on pace to finish this season 70-92. They play 18 of their last 37 games against AL East teams fighting to make the playoffs. They only have 1 non-divisional team under .500 on the schedule. 

The Twins do not have Berrios or Cruz on the team next year. Replacing them, if the Twins don't go to free agency will be Joe Ryan and Brent Rooker. If the Twins are going to return in 2022 with all guys who are currently under team control, the expectation they're not losing 90 games is completely irrational to me.

I know it’s been frustrating, and I know people stopped watching, but the Twins are playing .500 baseball since the middle of June.

With any effort greater than the off-season seen last year, they should be able to manage a more competitive team. They’ll have like $50M to spend in free agency.

But again, that’s hardly the point. You want to set the table to win in 2023? Or 2024? You can sign the key players for those seasons NEXT year. No need to wait.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins are on pace to finish this season 70-92. They play 18 of their last 37 games against AL East teams fighting to make the playoffs. They only have 1 non-divisional team under .500 on the schedule. 

The Twins do not have Berrios or Cruz on the team next year. Replacing them, if the Twins don't go to free agency will be Joe Ryan and Brent Rooker. If the Twins are going to return in 2022 with all guys who are currently under team control, the expectation they're not losing 90 games is completely irrational to me.

Well....who wants to go to battle in 2022 with the same guys?  Your argument is confusing and I think it's a strawman.  Who is arguing for only a shortstop?

The argument is to put the most money towards that position, not just sign a SS and walk away like the mission was accomplished.  Of course we need more, who is arguing otherwise?

[gunnarthor]

I guess I don't really understand the argument for short. The Twins need pitching. They have no real starters for next year. Barnes, Jax and Ober have combined for 24 starts and about 0 WAR. Ryan is still in AAA. Maeda's injured. Not one pitcher we can count on for next year.

The Twins farm system isn't really helping on the pitching side but we should be able to create enough offense even without adding any impact bats plus we have some top prospects who are 1) supposed to be close to the majors 2) who might be able to play short. The only way to fix the rotation is in free agency so the Twins should spend 95% of the FA budget on the pitching side and then they can worry about SS.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I know it’s been frustrating, and I know people stopped watching, but the Twins are playing .500 baseball since the middle of June.

With any effort greater than the off-season seen last year, they should be able to manage a more competitive team. They’ll have like $50M to spend in free agency.

But again, that’s hardly the point. You want to set the table to win in 2023? Or 2024? You can sign the key players for those seasons NEXT year. No need to wait.

I'm not frustrated with the Twins playing poorly this year. I like the opportunity it creates to accelerate young talent. Seeing young players full of potential tear up the diamond is a lot of fun for me. You're seriously underestimating the White Sox and Tigers right now. They are not going to be pushovers next year. The White Sox are already a potential juggernaut with a payroll of $162MM this year and they'll probably be higher next year. The Tigers have played over .500 ball since early May and they're going to have an easy $65MM of money earmarked for free agency with probable room for salary expansion well above $150MM, not to mention a reloaded farm system. The Royals are also looking down on the Twins in the standings with tons of elite farm talent and, again, just as much free agency money room as the Twins. It's worth noting no team in the AL Central has a lower max payroll in the past decade than the Twins. Detroit, Chicago, Kansas City and Cleveland have all outspent the Twins when it came down to making runs when their windows were open.

1. Yes. The Twins can compete next year. They can be excellent if they sign 2 very good pitchers, a very good shortstop and get a couple of their young players to turn a corner. They won't, and that's okay.
2. This thread implied the Twins can sign one player to turn the tide. One player is not enough.
3. If you're building a team, you sign a single high end free agent to complete a roster after you have an established and proven core of young players. The Twins do not have this. 1B, SS, LF, DH, SP1, SP2, SP4, SP5, and 3/4 of a bullpen are unproven or proven to be under par right now.
4. I do expect the Twins to make signings in free agency. I called Cueto, Pineda as pitchers and Simmons' return at SS. I think the Twins are going to focus on 2023+ and give their players another year of development. Lewis, Martin, Woods-Richardson, Winder, Balazovic and several others should have arrived or shown a much better picture of who they are.

I haven't missed what you think the point is. Can a team sign an elite talent with the hopes their efforts are something they'll be able to build around in 2 years? Sure, but if the graduating talent doesn't move the needle, all that team has done is waste money which is why basically no teams ever do this. All the discussions on how the Twins could sign a long term elite free agent this year in the hopes they have a competitive roster with young talent in 1-2 more years is moot anyway. The Twins have never signed a free agent to more than 4 years in franchise history and elite talent you would rely upon for more than a couple years of production almost always command 5+ years in this market, but the Twins' ownership has an extreme aversion to long contracts.