When will we see Joe Ryan pitch for the Twins?

[Squirrel]

Since Thorpe got the call today, now begs the question ... when will we see Joe Ryan on the mound for the Twins? He's scheduled to pitch on Friday for the Saints, could we see him as soon as New York? I'm thinking that he'll make his Twins debut during our next homestand. He hasn't pitched in a game since the Olympics, so the powers that be likely want him to get a game or two under his belt stateside before the leap. 

What do you think?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ooh, this is a hard one. 

[Squirrel]

Now that Ryan has pitched his first game in the Twins system, with the Saints last night, does anyone have further thoughts on this?(I've updated the choices.) This article and this one, too, describe his outing. Even @Lucas Seehafer PT thinks this is a hard one, when asked: 

 

 

[bean5302]

I really have no idea on this. The Rays looked like they were keeping Ryan at 75-80 pitches max this season and Ryan threw 70-74 pitches per start in the Olympics. The Saints gave him the quick hook after 67 pitches and 4 dominant innings. Limiting his pitches a bit would make sure he's fresh for a call up, but there are plenty of players in the minors who've played excellently and haven't been called up.

I think it makes a great deal of sense to have Joe Ryan up for his next available start at the MLB level. I know a lot of people don't think 1-1/2 months makes a big difference in Joe Ryan's development, but I think it could. It's not 1-1/2 months. It's the active game time, plus the offseason. Seeing how Ryan's offerings look against MLB hitters can more clearly show weaknesses in Ryans game. I think we've all seen players who get a brief time at the MLB level and learn something about what works in their game and what doesn't. If Ryan comes up right away, he could get 7 starts at the MLB level.

I voted September because I think the Twins are going to try and manipulate his service time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

49 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I voted September because I think the Twins are going to try and manipulate his service time.

Ryan is 25 years old, so the Twins already have control of him through his age-31 season. I don't think they'll bother manipulating that to age 32.

And holding him down for cost savings would take even longer -- at least until next June (past the "Super 2" arbitration point), or longer if he collects any service time this September -- and the savings would be fairly marginal/speculative.

I think the Twins recognize they need MLB arms for 2022, and Ryan is one of the best positioned to contribute due to his age, health, and AAA performance this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, next Wednesday August 25th vs Boston would be the "bullpen game" turn in the rotation. Ryan could slot into that on normal rest, although it seems like "normal rest" might mean +1 day for the Twins in 2021. So perhaps Thursday instead, in place of Barnes?

If not then, the next "bullpen" turn of the rotation as currently constructed would be Monday August 30 in Detroit.

[lecroy24fan]

@Otto von BallparkI think Albers gets that game. Unless they don't play tomorrow then they can push Jax and Ober back a day.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Well, this poll is particularly timely right now since Maeda left with “right forearm tightness” today. Sounds like that may be the end of his season for him. We have now lost all five starters from the beginning of the season. Don’t really need to wonder why we stink so bad do we?

I went with the home game against Milwaukee because I think they will want to ease him in a little, not just send him out there to get hammered against Boston. My guess is our old friend Andrew Albers get a start in Boston. Frankly, he’s looked better than any of the other starters we’ve called up this year other than Jax and Ober. I also think Strotman will get a start pretty soon.

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Well, this poll is particularly timely right now since Maeda left with “right forearm tightness” today. Sounds like that may be the end of his season for him. We have now lost all five starters from the beginning of the season. Don’t really need to wonder why we stink so bad do we?

I went with the home game against Milwaukee because I think they will want to ease him in a little, not just send him out there to get hammered against Boston. My guess is our old friend Andrew Albers get a start in Boston. Frankly, he’s looked better than any of the other starters we’ve called up this year other than Jax and Ober. I also think Strotman will get a start pretty soon.

Maybe I should redo the poll to ask ... who gets a start first ... Strotman or Ryan? But then, Strotman is already on the 40-man, but I think Ryan projects better? there has been so much juggling this year due to injuries and illness, who knows anymore

[LA VIkes Fan]

I'm interested in seeing both Ryan and Strotman, Strotman is scheduled to pitch Sunday for St. Paul so I guess that will tell us if he's coming up any time soon. I'd frankly like to see them both up soon pitching in a rotation with Ober, Jax, Gant and maybe Albers unless Winder can start a game or two in September. I think Barnes has shown enough for us to know that he's not ready and can be re-evaluated next season. Conversely, Maeda's injury may be a blessing in disguise.  It will give us a rotation turn to give try outs to other guys. Forearm tightness usually means an IL stint and at some point it doesn't make sense to use Maeda in this lost season any more and risk injury, We will desperately need him next year. 

[Rosterman]

The Twins have the perfect opportunity to see all of Strotman, Balazovic and Ryan pitch. Right now a five-man rotation would give starters up to 8 games. If you need to limit pitch counts to Ober, or have seen enough of Barnes, please bring up and play the future. Let them get their lumps. Now instead of next year.

[lecroy24fan]

14 hours ago, Rosterman said:

The Twins have the perfect opportunity to see all of Strotman, Balazovic and Ryan pitch. Right now a five-man rotation would give starters up to 8 games. If you need to limit pitch counts to Ober, or have seen enough of Barnes, please bring up and play the future. Let them get their lumps. Now instead of next year.

I'd consider a 6 man rotation to help limit Ober/Jaz/Barnes workloads.

[TopGunn#22]

This is a GREAT question, especially considering Maeda's "forearm tightness."  I see no reason to pitch Kenta the remainder of the season.  Shut him down and get him healthy for next year.  I said Brewers just to make a vote, but I really have no idea.  I do think Barnes has had his chance and that Maeda's situation opens up possibilities to audition a number of guys, most notably Ryan, Strotman, Winder and Balazovic.  I would consider a 6 man rotation to limit innings.  I would consider using openers and other such machinations to limit excessive innings/pitches but other than getting Buxton back on the field just to see him play, I'm not focused on what our final record could or should be.  I want to see a number of players from the pitchers to Miranda to get a sense of what we have.  That's the only thing holding my attention for anything Twins related.  I don't care to see any more Jake Cave at bats.  I would be interested in seeing Miranda or Celestino or Gordon, certainly Larnach again.  But the FO totally blew this season when they answered the White Sox moves with the trash they did.  Did the Pohlad's LIMIT their ability ?  The company line is they did not.  They could have, theoretically out-bid the White Sox and brought Liam Hendricks back into the fold.  "Theoretically."  But they didn't even come close.  I'm not saying that single move would have changed the entire season, but imagine Hendricks closing games for us the first two months of the season instead of blown save after blown save.  So if it REALLY wasn't the Pohlad's hanging onto nickels like manhole covers, Falvey and Levine should be operating this off season like their jobs are on the line.  Because they should be.  

[beckmt]

I feel with Wichita and probably St. Paul in the playoffs, we will not see any top prospects until the minor league playoffs are done, if then.  Plus with the 40 man crunch, it is unlikely we will see any this year.  Guess maybe the return of Dobnak will come first.

[Brandon]

I would think the Twins refer to have Ryan pitch in 4 or 5 games first.  Injuries could change that.  But I would imagine that would be there preference.  Albers was called up because the prospect pitchers are not ready for the call yet. And I know that is frustrating since this is a great season to have pitchers making their debuts.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

22 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Ryan is 25 years old, so the Twins already have control of him through his age-31 season. I don't think they'll bother manipulating that to age 32.

And holding him down for cost savings would take even longer -- at least until next June (past the "Super 2" arbitration point), or longer if he collects any service time this September -- and the savings would be fairly marginal/speculative.

I think the Twins recognize they need MLB arms for 2022, and Ryan is one of the best positioned to contribute due to his age, health, and AAA performance this year.

It's not just service time but his option clock. Of course we all hope he's good enough that it doesn't matter, but nonetheless, they can avoid burning an option on Ryan this year if they wait a week and a half. My guess is that'll be a big factor in when Ryan comes up, and it's a big reason why we haven't seen Moran or Miranda yet.

I agree, though, that if there is any service-time consideration happening, it won't go as far as keeping Ryan in the minors next spring if they need his contributions in the majors.

[jorgenswest]

The option will not be used for Ryan unless he is sent back down for 20 days. As long as he isn’t here for a temporary start an option will not be used.

Ryan can develop as well in the minors as he can in the majors and there is no way to predict when those lumps will come. A few poor starts heading into the off-season or a few good starts won’t tell us anything about next year. He should be called up though because it will be more interesting. The Twins are in the entertainment business and a few starts from Ryan will draw interest. I would look forward to those starts.

The best reason to keep him down would be specific work they see needed to be more successful in the major leagues. Does he need to work on a pitch that will be more effective against left handed hitters? Does he need to reduce his very high fastball usage to work on his other pitches? How is he pitching with runners on base? He hasn’t had many runners on base in the minors. Are his pitches as effective from the stretch or does he need to improve from the stretch? Any of those areas are probably easier to work on in the minors. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

This is a GREAT question, especially considering Maeda's "forearm tightness."  I see no reason to pitch Kenta the remainder of the season.  Shut him down and get him healthy for next year. 

Shutting down Maeda for the rest of the year will cost him and save the twins a bunch of money.

4 more starts gets him a 1.5 million, 4 more innings get him 250K, and another 250 every ten innings. Figure if he gets 6 more starts and averages 5 innings per start, he would lose over 2 million dollars.

With that said, I would like to see Ryan and Strotman up, Strotman is a guy maybe they don't have to put on the 40 if he isn't any good he hasn't been in St. Paul.

I would love to see Balazovic up, but he is young enough to hold off until that magic June date. Also I think he maybe a guy they could trade at the top of his value this winter for a pitcher, and he is comes up and doesn't do well that could take some shine off (probably not but...)

[Mike Sixel]

If they want them in Minnesota to start the year, they'll be up this year. Otherwise, I can't see them going into the year with a pitcher with zero experience in the majors to start a year. I would like to see both of them up ASAP, and getting MLB experience and jitters now, so they might be ready early next year. 

[TwinsDr2021]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they want them in Minnesota to start the year, they'll be up this year. Otherwise, I can't see them going into the year with a pitcher with zero experience in the majors to start a year. I would like to see both of them up ASAP, and getting MLB experience and jitters now, so they might be ready early next year. 

Even if he comes up for 4 starts and pitches lights out, it would be hard to assume he starts next year in the rotation. It is hard to give a rookie a rotation spot on a team trying to contend, so many things can go wrong with that.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Even if he comes up for 4 starts and pitches lights out, it would be hard to assume he starts next year in the rotation. It is hard to give a rookie a rotation spot on a team trying to contend, so many things can go wrong with that.

I agree. But there is zero chance, almost, if he's not up this year. That's all that post said or meant. That said, I disagree they can't give a rookie a spot. They will be cycling thru quite a few rookie pitchers next year, imo. 

[4twinsJA]

maybe not necessary, but would be good for Ryan to get the first MLB game jitters out of the way this year.

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I agree. But there is zero chance, almost, if he's not up this year. That's all that post said or meant. That said, I disagree they can't give a rookie a spot. They will be cycling thru quite a few rookie pitchers next year, imo. 

Sorry I was disagreeing with you, and I also can agree a rookie can be slated for the 5th spot, it just doesn't happen to often that a contending team goes into a year with with rookies in multiple spots and with Ober probably being slated at 4, they need to assume that he might not work out and have a plan for replacing him, that is much harder when you have another spot with a rookie slated. Because then you need like 3 or 4 starters as a back up plan, plus the ones you need to back up for other injuries, it makes the 40 awful heavy on starting pitchers.

Not that it is part of this thread, but if you are relying on rookies or close to rookies at 3rd, C, and Larnach and AK, it does mean they have to sign a bunch of non-roster (40 man) for AAA in case they slump as well, and if Buxton is back a plan for him when he gets hurt.

Which might make it necessary not to put anybody on the 40 that isn't required to put on.

[Dodecahedron]

I see no good reason to have him not pitch for the team.  I'd probably prefer he start a home game to reduce the whirlwind of debuting in the majors.

Amazing that Ryan is barely a top 100 prospect, if he is ranked that highly at all.  His numbers have been good if not ace-level.  

[DocBauer]

I made a long post in another thread about just letting him get readjusted to a routine and time zone changes. And I think that's still smart and fair. Just one more AAA start to settle in. But Maeda's injury may just wreck this idea.

Albers may get a start, at least as an opener, to fill a spot/date. I just really don't want to see Gant get another start as I feel if he has any benefit to 2022 it's in the pen. I'd rather he focus on THAT. 

I still believe a healthy Dobnak has a chance to be a viable back end SP. But he's not close to ready right now. So whether we like it or not, Ryan is probably the next man up. The question is how starts juggle and set up to MAYBE allow him one more AAA start before a debut.

Strotman is someone I am really, really interested in. I think he could be a major sleeper. He skipped an entire level post surgery and missed all of 2020. I just DON'T want to risk ruining a potentially fine arm and head out of desperation in a lousy, losing, and disappointing year.

Ryan is next man up, and soon.

A healthy Winder may be next.

[Brandon]

On 8/22/2021 at 11:00 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

Shutting down Maeda for the rest of the year will cost him and save the twins a bunch of money.

4 more starts gets him a 1.5 million, 4 more innings get him 250K, and another 250 every ten innings. Figure if he gets 6 more starts and averages 5 innings per start, he would lose over 2 million dollars.

With that said, I would like to see Ryan and Strotman up, Strotman is a guy maybe they don't have to put on the 40 if he isn't any good he hasn't been in St. Paul.

I would love to see Balazovic up, but he is young enough to hold off until that magic June date. Also I think he maybe a guy they could trade at the top of his value this winter for a pitcher, and he is comes up and doesn't do well that could take some shine off (probably not but...)

Maeda is a great opportunity for the Twins to show Japanese players that Minnesota is a great place to play.  The 2B we had didn't do us any favors. So if Maeda is able to pitch and wants to he will.  He will go back to Japan and let others know we valued him and gave him all opportunities when others didn't.

[Otto von Ballpark]

20 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

Amazing that Ryan is barely a top 100 prospect, if he is ranked that highly at all.  His numbers have been good if not ace-level.  

I think it's that Ryan is 25 years old, and the minor leagues can be kinda crazy for stats, especially for K's these days.

Not that being a borderline top 100 is anything bad!

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 hours ago, Dodecahedron said:

I see no good reason to have him not pitch for the team.  I'd probably prefer he start a home game to reduce the whirlwind of debuting in the majors.

Amazing that Ryan is barely a top 100 prospect, if he is ranked that highly at all.  His numbers have been good if not ace-level.  

I think you're underrating what it means to be a top 100 prospect and how many good prospects lay outside that top list. Being #100 on a list means he's, on average, the 3.333 best prospect in the average farm system.

On Twins Daily's own prospect list, Ryan is.... seventh.

The Twins have a good farm system but it's not elite. Ryan can't even crack the top five.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Rotation has been announced for the series in Boston, Tuesday through Thursday:

Jax
Ober
Gant

(Aside: those are some short last names!)

Friday back home vs Milwaukee is still TBD, but according to the MILB schedule page, Ryan is already confirmed as the Saints starter for Wednesday, which would rule him out for the Milwaukee series.

HOWEVER, the Saints are playing in Toledo through Sunday, and Ryan's next turn would land on Monday when the Twins travel to nearby Detroit for a single game. It would be pretty easy for Jax to join up with the Twins at that point, and that would also give Ober an extra day of rest before his next start too, if that is still an objective.

[Dodecahedron]

55 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think you're underrating what it means to be a top 100 prospect

I don't think so, no.