Would you sign a big-time SS if that meant having to trade Royce Lewis?

[Kal Lis]

21 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

I may be mistaken, but Lewis is still ranked inside the Top 15 (#11) on MLB's Top 100 Prospect list.  Tell me again how he is plummeting?

As of this morning, he's #37. 

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/

[Dman]

25 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Lewis hasn't played a game since 2019, and really only a handful of guys played in 2020 if you want to call alternate site games for development.  2021 injured with a knee and don't really care who you are a knee is easily a year of recovery.  So that puts him back to square one for 2022 and spring training.  Hasn't played above AA and I don't see him being on the MLB roster till at best 2023.  Yes you can rehab, work out to stay in shape but there is game shape that has to come into play.  2 years gone, he isn't the golden child answer anytime soon to solve our SS woes.  So you start him at AA and see how he fairs at AAA to handle playing everyday and can his body hold up.  Minor league stats of 45 errors and fielding .955 needs some improvement.  

I agree. I think if you are the Twins you shouldn't be planning your future around Royce Lewis.  As many have stated unless he comes back and has a Miranda type year he won't impact anything until 2023 and that is the earliest it could very well take until 2024 or 2025 for it to all come together hard to say with his bat.  If they can strike a deal with one of the big FA SS then IMO they should do it.  Waiting for Royce is not a good plan.

I know the hypothetical is trading Lewis for a good return but I just don't see a team doing that.  As Brock stated earlier the only reason Royce is as high as he is on prospects lists is that is pretty much where he was pre-Covid and pre-injury.  If he comes back and still can't hit or the knee remains an issue he could literally drop out of the top 100.  That is not a guy another FO trades a good pitcher for unless they are willing to take a huge risk.  I just can't see that happening.

I also don't see the Twins making a huge pitcher signing.  They will stick to the Pineda type guys or guys willing to go 2 years.  Maybe I will be wrong as they feel the pressure this year brought them but that has been their MO so far.  If they invest that money I think it will be in position players and maybe proven relievers.

[Major League Ready]

1. Signing a SS and trading Buxton have a very weak association
2. Buxton is the highest ceiling prospect we have.  You could even make a case he is the only prospect with super star potential.  I sure don't want to give him up especially when his value is down.  The return does not make sense given the upside.
3. He could replace Buxton if they don’t come to terms with him.
4. He does not need a position.  He could be a better version of Ben Zobrist.
5. They can afford a SS and a top SP if the trade Donaldson or fail to extend Buxton.

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, Dman said:

I also don't see the Twins making a huge pitcher signing.  They will stick to the Pineda type guys or guys willing to go 2 years.  Maybe I will be wrong as they feel the pressure this year brought them but that has been their MO so far.  If they invest that money I think it will be in position players and maybe proven relievers.

Normally, I would agree and I don't disagree.  History is clear in that small and mid-market teams don’t sign top free agent pitchers.  It’s just not financially feasible and those players often prefer other destinations.  However, the Twins are in a position where they could afford one top SP.  They are in the enviable position of being able to fill all of the other rotation spots with prearb players (plus Maeda for under $10M) for the next several years.  Sano and Rodgers come off in 2023.  Donaldson is off in 2024 and of course they could trade him next year and bring up Miranda.  They would not be able to spend a lot in the BP but those have been really poor investments a high percentage of the time.  Plus, there are a number of very good SPs available next year.  No doubt it’s difficult to get one of them to sign here but were are well in a position to make it work.
 

[Dman]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Normally, I would agree and I don't disagree.  History is clear in that small and mid-market teams don’t sign top free agent pitchers.  It’s just not financially feasible and those players often prefer other destinations.  However, the Twins are in a position where they could afford one top SP.  They are in the enviable position of being able to fill all of the other rotation spots with prearb players (plus Maeda for under $10M) for the next several years.  Sano and Rodgers come off in 2023.  Donaldson is off in 2024 and of course they could trade him next year and bring up Miranda.  They would not be able to spend a lot in the BP but those have been really poor investments a high percentage of the time.  Plus, there are a number of very good SPs available next year.  No doubt it’s difficult to get one of them to sign here but were are well in a position to make it work.
 

I hope you are right as I wouldn't mind them investing in the top tier pitching market.  I just can't remember them ever getting one before.  I guess the same thing could have been said until they signed Donaldson so never say never it just doesn't seem likely to me.  Personally like I said I think they sign two vets at two years or under and plan to run with the young guys next year, but we'll see. 

[dex8425]

20 hours ago, Trov said:

Why Trevor Story?  What about him makes you think he will live up to a long term mega contract when he leaves CO?  He is fine on defense, but away from Denver do you have any clue how bad of a hitter he is?  In his career the split slash lines are .305/.369/.608 with OPS of .978 for home, but road is .243/.311/.438 with OPS of .749 on the road.  This year it is even worse. With a road slash line of .200/.292/.389 for OPS of .681.  I am 100% convinced he gets a boost from hitting in Denver and will be at best an average hitter for other teams.  Yes, some guys just get used to home park, but those are huge difference in numbers, particular power. He has hit 92 in Denver and only 57 away from Denver in only a 99 plate appearance difference.  

If the Twins go all in on a long term deal for Trevor Story I will be calling for the FO to be fired, and I really like them overall.  Nothing about Story's career suggest he will be a superstar away from Denver.  There is a reason no team traded for him this year.  I know CO most likely had high asking price and plan to give QO in hopes of getting draft pick.  Story should take the QO because I predict he will not get a deal he is hoping for and will be a late signing to a 1 year deal and he will fail.  Any team that gives him a long term deal for 15 plus a year will be dreading it by the end. 

Yeah, DJ LeMahieu had just as bad home/away splits and he's sure sucked away from coors too. Wait...

 

Difference has to do with hitting at altitude and sleeping at altitude, not that hitting in coors is easy. It's real hard to adjust to seeing sliders at altitude and sliders at sea level. 

[adjacent]

I am reading the comments and don't really understand the putting down of Lewis. Yes he had a relatively bad year in 2020 but then he excelled in the fall league. then 2020 happened and now he torn an ACL. A bad injury, but today they come back from those (soccer players, in a sport that requires twisting on the knees all the time, come back from it). I say let him play in 2022 before you make any decision on that player.

[tony&rodney]

Royce Lewis will not be a factor in management decisions this offseason. The Twins will have as much money to spend as they deem necessary. They could decide to play with a payroll that may range from $75-150 million. Their focus on the now or later will decide their budget. If the Twins want to sign Story they can do so, especially if he likes the idea of proving himself on a $22 million prove-it year. The larger difficulty will be convincing a pitcher to come to Target Field and money will be the ticket there. The Twins need to add two pitchers via trade or free agency this offseason. Their prospects are nearly all mid rotation possibilities making some additions crucial.

Additionally, Royce Lewis will not return anything worthwhile at this point as compared to his possible potential, so he will not be traded unless it is part of a very large blockbuster trade. Thus I don't see signing a major shortstop as connected to Lewis.

[TwinsDr2021]

I am confused on why people don't think Lewis and somebody like a Duran couldn't bring back a really good pitcher, Martin and Woods Richardson got Toronto a really good pitcher for 1 1/2.

If the twins threw in a Sands or somebody that should bring back a pitcher with at least two years of control? No?

 

[Dodecahedron]

On 8/18/2021 at 11:35 AM, Mike Sixel said:

fangraphs: 6th....13th....30th....and I'll place money he's not as high as 30 next time they do an update.

He's still a good to great prospect....but he's not trending the right way.

Does that mean Lewis is worse, or that new prospects are considered better?

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Does that mean Lewis is worse, or that new prospects are considered better?

both. He's dropped from a 60 to 55 at FGs, for example. And, he's out of the top 50 on many lists, no way it is just that 50 more ELITE prospects have been drafted.

[Dodecahedron]

For some perspective, Lewis's rank "dropped" close to where it was initially.  Anyone who says he has "dropped" in rankings is not judging from his initial values.  Lewis's rankings are right about where they were when he started.  He "dropped" only after rising to impressive ranks.

In any case, I don't think a team can ever justify trading a top 50 middle infield prospect.  The same probably goes for top 100 or 150.  Maybe even 200.  

If a middle infield prospect shows he can't play defense, you move him to a new position.  If a middle infield prospect proves he can't hit, even after considering that middle infielders are often light hitters, then he's not a top prospect.  

The middle infield is the A+ defensive position.  If someone has any chance of sticking there, you give them adequate chances.  I would assume any MI prospect in the top 100 has a decent chance, if not 150 or 200.

[Mike Sixel]

24 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

For some perspective, Lewis's rank "dropped" close to where it was initially.  Anyone who says he has "dropped" in rankings is not judging from his initial values.  Lewis's rankings are right about where they were when he started.  He "dropped" only after rising to impressive ranks.

In any case, I don't think a team can ever justify trading a top 50 middle infield prospect.  The same probably goes for top 100 or 150.  Maybe even 200.  

If a middle infield prospect shows he can't play defense, you move him to a new position.  If a middle infield prospect proves he can't hit, even after considering that middle infielders are often light hitters, then he's not a top prospect.  

The middle infield is the A+ defensive position.  If someone has any chance of sticking there, you give them adequate chances.  I would assume any MI prospect in the top 100 has a decent chance, if not 150 or 200.

Didn't Toronto just trade a top MI prospect?

[Dodecahedron]

27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Didn't Toronto just trade a top MI prospect?

Do you mean the team that drafted T.J. Zeuch in the first round, only to give up on him after 49 innings and trade him for cash (while he was injured), even though he has minor league options available?

If so, then yes.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You can never have too many short stops or starting pitchers. If the Twins had 5 of the top 10 prospects and they were all short stops I’d still want them to sign Story long term.