Would you sign a big-time SS if that meant having to trade Royce Lewis?

[Vanimal46]

14 minutes ago, Thiéres Rabelo said:

I forgot to clarify that I don't think the Twins should seek a trade for Lewis. I think that if they bring in a top SS long-term, then trading him would make sense. In other words, I don't think they should pursue guys like Story, Seager, and Correa to a long contract. If it were me, I'd prefer to wait around on Lewis and have Polanco move back to SS, with Gordon as his backup.

Moving Polanco back to SS defeats the purpose of prioritizing infield defense, which everyone was thrilled to accomplish last winter. 

[mike8791]

I may be mistaken, but Lewis is still ranked inside the Top 15 (#11) on MLB's Top 100 Prospect list. Tell me again how he is plummeting?

Midseason 2021 ratings:

Keith Law's Top 50 : NR

Bleacher Reports : #49

Take your pick, but preponderance of opinion is that this first overall pick in 2017 has fallen dramatically in consensus ratings.

[MN_ExPat]

Just now, mike8791 said:

I may be mistaken, but Lewis is still ranked inside the Top 15 (#11) on MLB's Top 100 Prospect list. Tell me again how he is plummeting?

Midseason 2021 ratings:

Keith Law's Top 50 : NR

Bleacher Reports : #49

Take your pick, but preponderance of opinion is that this first overall pick in 2017 has fallen dramatically in consensus ratings.

Two does not make a consensus.  It merely shows that he is a polarizing player.

[Mike Sixel]

fangraphs: 6th....13th....30th....and I'll place money he's not as high as 30 next time they do an update.

He's still a good to great prospect....but he's not trending the right way.

[bean5302]

Not sure what pursuing a FA shortstop has to do with giving up on Lewis. Signing a big name, tier 1, FA shortstop would be a radical departure from the Twins' front office/ownership's style. The Astros have already offered Correa 5 and 6 year deals worth $125MM+ before the season started and I'm sure they'll come to the table big before Correa is a free agent. The Blue Jays certainly have the inside track on Semien. The Yankees are going to be bidding on the best free agent SS on the market... Does anybody here actually believe the Twins are willing to go 5-7 years and shell out $150MM+ for a free agent shortstop? I mean... truly?

Besides, say the Twins sign the least expensive tier 1 potential FA option, Semien, for 5 years. He's 32. Do you want him playing SS in 5 years? How about in 2 years when Lewis is likely either washed out or a starting SS? You just move Semien or trade him or whatever. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not sure what pursuing a FA shortstop has to do with giving up on Lewis. Signing a big name, tier 1, FA shortstop would be a radical departure from the Twins' front office/ownership's style. The Astros have already offered Correa 5 and 6 year deals worth $125MM+ before the season started and I'm sure they'll come to the table big before Correa is a free agent. The Blue Jays certainly have the inside track on Semien. The Yankees are going to be bidding on the best free agent SS on the market... Does anybody here actually believe the Twins are willing to go 5-7 years and shell out $150MM+ for a free agent shortstop? I mean... truly?

Besides, say the Twins sign the least expensive tier 1 potential FA option, Semien, for 5 years. He's 32. Do you want him playing SS in 5 years? How about in 2 years when Lewis is likely either washed out or a starting SS? You just move Semien or trade him or whatever. 

Why are they signing him to five years? Is anyone doing that? I very much doubt it. Very much.

[Trov]

4 hours ago, Thiéres Rabelo said:

I was reading Matthew Lenz's article "Twins Options at Shortstop in 2022", in which he discusses what short-term options the Twins might look at in the next offseason while they wait for Royce Lewis to recover from the ACL surgery.

Later in that article, Lenz examines the free agent options, and he mentions Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Báez. Those guys will definitely be looking for long-term deals. Which got me thinking: if you're the Twins, would you be willing to give up on Royce Lewis in order to pursue one of those big shot free agents? If so, which of those guys is your preferred target? Mine is definitely Story. 

Not long ago, they dealt Brusdar Graterol, who most of us thought was a cornerstone of the team's future. So, if they sign a guy like Seager long-term, you just have to assume they'll soon be trading away Lewis, right?

Why Trevor Story?  What about him makes you think he will live up to a long term mega contract when he leaves CO?  He is fine on defense, but away from Denver do you have any clue how bad of a hitter he is?  In his career the split slash lines are .305/.369/.608 with OPS of .978 for home, but road is .243/.311/.438 with OPS of .749 on the road.  This year it is even worse. With a road slash line of .200/.292/.389 for OPS of .681.  I am 100% convinced he gets a boost from hitting in Denver and will be at best an average hitter for other teams.  Yes, some guys just get used to home park, but those are huge difference in numbers, particular power. He has hit 92 in Denver and only 57 away from Denver in only a 99 plate appearance difference.  

If the Twins go all in on a long term deal for Trevor Story I will be calling for the FO to be fired, and I really like them overall.  Nothing about Story's career suggest he will be a superstar away from Denver.  There is a reason no team traded for him this year.  I know CO most likely had high asking price and plan to give QO in hopes of getting draft pick.  Story should take the QO because I predict he will not get a deal he is hoping for and will be a late signing to a 1 year deal and he will fail.  Any team that gives him a long term deal for 15 plus a year will be dreading it by the end. 

[Winston Smith]

2 minutes ago, Trov said:

Why Trevor Story?  What about him makes you think he will live up to a long term mega contract when he leaves CO?  He is fine on defense, but away from Denver do you have any clue how bad of a hitter he is?  In his career the split slash lines are .305/.369/.608 with OPS of .978 for home, but road is .243/.311/.438 with OPS of .749 on the road.  This year it is even worse. With a road slash line of .200/.292/.389 for OPS of .681.  I am 100% convinced he gets a boost from hitting in Denver and will be at best an average hitter for other teams.  Yes, some guys just get used to home park, but those are huge difference in numbers, particular power. He has hit 92 in Denver and only 57 away from Denver in only a 99 plate appearance difference.  

If the Twins go all in on a long term deal for Trevor Story I will be calling for the FO to be fired, and I really like them overall.  Nothing about Story's career suggest he will be a superstar away from Denver.  There is a reason no team traded for him this year.  I know CO most likely had high asking price and plan to give QO in hopes of getting draft pick.  Story should take the QO because I predict he will not get a deal he is hoping for and will be a late signing to a 1 year deal and he will fail.  Any team that gives him a long term deal for 15 plus a year will be dreading it by the end. 

You saved me a lot of typing I was about to say the same thing.

[Trov]

2 minutes ago, Winston Smith said:

You saved me a lot of typing I was about to say the same thing.

Thank you, I posted so much about Story in off-season when people wanted to give up the farm to bring him in and sign long term.  His numbers on offense away from Denver are on par with Polonco, and this year even worse than Polonco.  Story is better overall on defense, but not worth a mega deal that some predict. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Here is my assumption, if the Twins sign a high priced SS, then they can't or won't sign a high priced pitcher, so to get a pitcher they will have to trade a prized prospect. So in this assumption, yes I am trading Lewis with other prospects to get that kind of pitcher and signing the SS. (I only really want Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, not the other two on any sort of longer contract)

IMO if Lewis with a few other prospect can return a really good pitcher with a few years of control (contract or pre-Arb) I am trading them regardless of signing the SS.

I think signing a big time SS and keeping Lewis, because he may be an outfielder, seems a bit far fetched, because how the heck are the Twins going to get pitching?

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, TwinsDr2021 said:

Here is my assumption, if the Twins sign a high priced SS, then they can't or won't sign a high priced pitcher, so to get a pitcher they will have to trade a prized prospect. So in this assumption, yes I am trading Lewis with other prospects to get that kind of pitcher and signing the SS. (I only really want Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, not the other two on any sort of longer contract)

IMO if Lewis with a few other prospect can return a really good pitcher with a few years of control (contract or pre-Arb) I am trading them regardless of signing the SS.

I think of signing a big time SS and keeping Lewis, because he may be an outfielder, seems a bit far fetched, because how the heck are the Twins going to get pitching?

They have more than enough money to sign a big time SP and SS. 

As many are saying, though, I'd put my money on these SS signing with their existing team or a much bigger market team.

[TwinsDr2021]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

They have more than enough money to sign a big time SP and SS. 

As many are saying, though, I'd put my money on these SS signing with their existing team or a much bigger market team.

Oh I agree they have enough money, but can you really imagine them spending 20 million on a SS, 3B and a pitcher? I would think that would eliminate Buxton.

How many people on this site have said they have to get rid of Donaldson's contract so they can sign a pitcher, and now we are thinking they would sign that top pitcher and sign $20 million SS?

 

[Thiéres Rabelo]

16 minutes ago, Trov said:

Why Trevor Story?  What about him makes you think he will live up to a long term mega contract when he leaves CO?  He is fine on defense, but away from Denver do you have any clue how bad of a hitter he is?  In his career the split slash lines are .305/.369/.608 with OPS of .978 for home, but road is .243/.311/.438 with OPS of .749 on the road.  This year it is even worse. With a road slash line of .200/.292/.389 for OPS of .681.  I am 100% convinced he gets a boost from hitting in Denver and will be at best an average hitter for other teams.  Yes, some guys just get used to home park, but those are huge difference in numbers, particular power. He has hit 92 in Denver and only 57 away from Denver in only a 99 plate appearance difference.  

If the Twins go all in on a long term deal for Trevor Story I will be calling for the FO to be fired, and I really like them overall.  Nothing about Story's career suggest he will be a superstar away from Denver.  There is a reason no team traded for him this year.  I know CO most likely had high asking price and plan to give QO in hopes of getting draft pick.  Story should take the QO because I predict he will not get a deal he is hoping for and will be a late signing to a 1 year deal and he will fail.  Any team that gives him a long term deal for 15 plus a year will be dreading it by the end. 

Here's an article that everyone who doesn't follow the Rockies should read before jumping on the "Coors effect" bandwagon.

https://roxpile.com/2020/02/24/coors-field-colorado-rockies-offense-effect/ 

To answer briefly, Story has had four out of five seasons in the majors with at least 117 wRC+, a metric that is adjusted for park factors (in other words, playing in Denver makes no difference to it). He did have a slow start to 2021, but he's already back to his old self: .938 OPS, .400 wOBA, and 136 wRC+ in the past 30 days. In that same span, his road numbers are 116 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .808 OPS. That's far from "an average hitter at best." Sportrac still calculates his market value at $30.5 million AAV.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

fangraphs: 6th....13th....30th....and I'll place money he's not as high as 30 next time they do an update.

He's still a good to great prospect....but he's not trending the right way.

To be fair, Lewis’ stock dropping is mostly due to not playing while other prospects continue to perform. No one really knows how to evaluate him at this point because there’s nothing to evaluate that is more recent than two years ago. Whenever he takes the field again, he could literally become the best prospect in baseball or off everyone’s top 100 list within a couple of months. 

[bean5302]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why are they signing him to five years? Is anyone doing that? I very much doubt it. Very much.

He's a tier 1 shortstop. I mis-stated his age, btw. He's 30 right now, he'll be 31 at the start of next year. He'll get 5 years after he records another 6 WAR season this year. His agent set the price for Semien at over $100MM to start the season.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

He's a tier 1 shortstop. I mis-stated his age, btw. He's 30 right now, he'll be 31 at the start of next year. He'll get 5 years after he records another 6 WAR season this year. His agent set the price for Semien at over $100MM to start the season.

Yup, if he's 30, then 5 years makes more sense than if he's 32. 

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, Thiéres Rabelo said:

Here's an article that everyone who doesn't follow the Rockies should read before jumping on the "Coors effect" bandwagon.

https://roxpile.com/2020/02/24/coors-field-colorado-rockies-offense-effect/ 

To answer briefly, Story has had four out of five seasons in the majors with at least 117 wRC+, a metric that is adjusted for park factors (in other words, playing in Denver makes no difference to it). He did have a slow start to 2021, but he's already back to his old self: .938 OPS, .400 wOBA, and 136 wRC+ in the past 30 days. In that same span, his road numbers are 116 wRC+, .347 wOBA, .808 OPS. That's far from "an average hitter at best." Sportrac still calculates his market value at $30.5 million AAV.

Agreed. Many players from the Rockies have gone on to be productive elsewhere. Matt Holliday, Nolan Arenado, DJ LaMahieu right off the top of my head. Raw counting stats get inflated at Coors, but wRC+ OPS+ and general batting factors like exit velocity and launch angles don't change just because a player is swinging a bat at a different location.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

To be fair, Lewis’ stock dropping is mostly due to not playing while other prospects continue to perform. No one really knows how to evaluate him at this point because there’s nothing to evaluate that is more recent than two years ago. Whenever he takes the field again, he could literally become the best prospect in baseball or off everyone’s top 100 list within a couple of months. 

No one is arguing that......it was whether he was dropping in rankings or not at all, as if one site keeping him high was evidence, but multiple sites dropping him wasn't....Not why he was dropping, if he was dropping.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

See my post .... Are pitchers like that even traded?

Yes, but it isn't going to be headlined by Lewis.  That's why he's a sell low.

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Other teams may have a dire SS pipeline and willing to take the chance. Or a different valuation of him and convinced he will stick at the position. He hasn’t played enough in recent years to prove one way or the other, so he can still be sold high based off his ceiling. 

So you've got a narrow band of teams who are willing to overlook the fact that he hasn't played due to injury....that's not a sell high situation.  Your argument is that this is his highest peak and you might be right, but if this is the peak it doesn't have much value.  So why sell on that when there is still a decent chance he's the talent we took 1st overall?

I don't want to give that up for some 4th starter.

[Vanimal46]

57 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

So you've got a narrow band of teams who are willing to overlook the fact that he hasn't played due to injury....that's not a sell high situation.  Your argument is that this is his highest peak and you might be right, but if this is the peak it doesn't have much value.  So why sell on that when there is still a decent chance he's the talent we took 1st overall?

I don't want to give that up for some 4th starter.

Isn’t that all trades? A narrow band of teams that are interested in a player? This isn’t his peak right now, his peak was 2 years ago before the injuries. He’ll still be a top 50 ish ranked prospect instead of top 10 in all of baseball. Still an immense value in the game. 

Where did the 4th starter come from? I wouldn’t trade him for a 4th starter either. If they can get controllable good pitching I would pull the trigger on a trade. 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Isn’t that all trades? A narrow band of teams that are interested in a player? This isn’t his peak right now, his peak was 2 years ago before the injuries. He’ll still be a top 50 ish ranked prospect instead of top 10 in all of baseball. Still an immense value in the game. 

Where did the 4th starter come from? I wouldn’t trade him for a 4th starter either. If they can get controllable good pitching I would pull the trigger on a trade. 

A high value pitcher isn't going to have a narrow band of teams on the hunt for him.  If he's on the block, anyone willing to sell anyone is going to be willing to listen.  Same for any prospect who has a lot of steam.  The problem with Lewis is that the steam got abruptly halted.

Royce Lewis, with the fact that there is a lot of tarnish on him right now, is not going to land you a good, controllable pitcher.  Your argument seems to want to have it both ways: pretend he's still really valuable while quietly saying "yeah but he's totally questionable right now" and hoping no one heard the quiet part.  That's not how trades in sports work anymore.  You can't slip the warts by people thinking you can package him for something good.  He's lost the kind of luster to pull that off. 

He's going to have to get on the field and show people he still has that pedigree or they aren't going to care where he's ranked on a prospect list.  Once he does that?  Now we can talk about moving him for a good, controllable pitcher.  In October when he hasn't had a meaningful at-bat in what feels like a decade?  You aren't getting that kind of value.

[Linus]

This ship has sailed.  The Twins aren’t having two mega contracts on the books so I hope you like J Donaldson.   This contract will go down as one of the many blunders of our current FO. 

[jkcarew]

The key to getting everything we want in this thread is trading Donaldson. As unlikely as that is given the contract…IF you could pull it off, it makes the concept of the Twins spending big on Buxton, a SS, and pitching at least within the realm of our dreams. With Donaldson on the books, no way do they shell out for those numbers and those years (tier one). Highly questionable they’d do all three even without Donaldson.

Chances are, prospects will need to be traded somewhere along the line. Too many variables and not enough equations. Pure speculation. Arguably, they have redundancies everywhere…except CF and SS. It doesn’t have to be just prospects…some of the controlled guys have varying value that could be material in a package…(Polonco obviously…Kepler, Sano…Jeffers and Garver who are pretty redundant unless you’re willing to play one/both at 1B or DH.)

People I could see included in packages…

Buxton if it looks like you’re not going to sign him

Lewis or Martin (not both…and neither if you don’t think Buxton is signing)

Any of the other top 15 position prospect not named Lewis or Martin (including Miranda)

One of Larnach, Kepler, or Kirilloff (Kirilloff the least likely, but you never know)

Rooker (he has options, right?)

One of Garver or Jeffers

Sano if it looks like the first-baseman is Kirilloff, and they like Garver/Jeffers/Donaldson to DH

Arraez if the return is high, Buxton signs, and they think Martin is ready

Polonco if the return is high enough and you love your 2nd base options (whether Arraez, Martin, Lewis, etc)

Etc, etc, etc

[Vanimal46]

5 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

A high value pitcher isn't going to have a narrow band of teams on the hunt for him.  If he's on the block, anyone willing to sell anyone is going to be willing to listen.  Same for any prospect who has a lot of steam.  The problem with Lewis is that the steam got abruptly halted.

Royce Lewis, with the fact that there is a lot of tarnish on him right now, is not going to land you a good, controllable pitcher.  Your argument seems to want to have it both ways: pretend he's still really valuable while quietly saying "yeah but he's totally questionable right now" and hoping no one heard the quiet part.  That's not how trades in sports work anymore.  You can't slip the warts by people thinking you can package him for something good.  He's lost the kind of luster to pull that off. 

He's going to have to get on the field and show people he still has that pedigree or they aren't going to care where he's ranked on a prospect list.  Once he does that?  Now we can talk about moving him for a good, controllable pitcher.  In October when he hasn't had a meaningful at-bat in what feels like a decade?  You aren't getting that kind of value.

There were about, what, 4 teams tops in the mix for Berrios a month ago? We just acquired Austin Martin, a highly touted prospect who is blocked by better talent in Toronto. He had plenty of question marks whether he’s going to succeed at SS. 

My opinion about Lewis is clearly the minority here. TD still ranks him as the #1 prospect, and he’s still a consensus top 50 prospect. I personally don’t believe the hype and would rather trade him now before it’s determined he’s a star or scrub. 

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

My opinion about Lewis is clearly the minority here. TD still ranks him as the #1 prospect, and he’s still a consensus top 50 prospect. I personally don’t believe the hype and would rather trade him now before it’s determined he’s a star or scrub. 

I agree with you, it seems some are saying Lewis isn't good enough to headline a trade for a pitcher, but is still the #1 Twins prospect in a good to great minor league prospect pool. I don't think it can be both ways, can it? Then again I would have traded Lewis in 2019 so...

[yeahyabetcha]

Free agents north of 3 years/$20 million per year make little sense for the Twins, so unless getting a top tier SS via some creative  deal, I just don’t see it happening.  As far as Lewis goes, he is starting to look like a bust to me.  I realize it could be a mistake, but I would trade him, if value was received back.  If they can’t sign  Buxton to a reasonable deal, I would move him also, again as long as value was received.

[TopGunn#22]

Interesting topic, and one with a myriad of good opinions.  DMan hit on one of my points right off the bat.  Lewis has tremendous positional flexibility.  And as far as us trading Graterol, it was a "Trade" not a free agent signing.  This all come down to how much the Pohlad's are willing to spend to put the Twins in a position to compete.  We've all weighed in on the Buxton vs Berrios debate and the answer is in.  The Twins valued Buxton more.  Now it's clear Buxton has to be the #1 priority this off-season.  Both sides are taking a big risk in any kind of deal.  To me, that should mean that a reasonable comprise between the two sides should be reached.  Because as others have mentioned, if we sign one of the big SS FA's WITHOUT having Buxton locked down, the days of Buxton as a Twin will be coming to an end.  The bigger question to me is that once Buxton is locked down, do you try to sign an elite SS or do you invest that money in SP's and BP.  Again, I come to the conclusion that the money needs to be spent on PITCHING.  The Twins suddenly have GOBS of young, talented arms.  Maybe some are ready as soon as 2022.   However, beyond Maeda (who I believe will bounce back next year) they don't have MAJOR LEAGUE proven arms.  Will they bring back Pineda ?  Will they spend the money to make a splash for Gasman, Rodon, Stroman, Thor ??  They should also sign a secondary SP arm like a Dylan Bundy or someone similar on the cheap.  They still need a CLOSER.  They must sign a Rosenthal/Yates kind of guy, put Rogers back into his 8th inning role and occasional closer and let the other arms slot into their places.  Remember, some of those young talented arms may start out in our BP instead of starting.  Which leads me to my final observation:  We will need a "bridge" SS while Lewis plays all of 2022 in the minors and gives the Twins a clearer picture of what they have.  Two names that make sense and would be affordable are Jose Eglesias and Freddy Galvis.  They are "competent."  And even if you signed one of them to a 2-year deal each could serve as another swing infielder improving our depth.  If I'm the Twins FO my off-season plan is to sign Buxton.  INVEST in MAJOR LEAGUE pitchers to fill in gaps in the starting rotation and bullpen and find a "bridge" SS so I can have options come 2023.  This plan does not involve trading Royce Lewis or signing Story, Seager, et all. 

[umterp23]

Lewis hasn't played a game since 2019, and really only a handful of guys played in 2020 if you want to call alternate site games for development.  2021 injured with a knee and don't really care who you are a knee is easily a year of recovery.  So that puts him back to square one for 2022 and spring training.  Hasn't played above AA and I don't see him being on the MLB roster till at best 2023.  Yes you can rehab, work out to stay in shape but there is game shape that has to come into play.  2 years gone, he isn't the golden child answer anytime soon to solve our SS woes.  So you start him at AA and see how he fairs at AAA to handle playing everyday and can his body hold up.  Minor league stats of 45 errors and fielding .955 needs some improvement.  

[TheLeviathan]

10 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

There were about, what, 4 teams tops in the mix for Berrios a month ago? We just acquired Austin Martin, a highly touted prospect who is blocked by better talent in Toronto. He had plenty of question marks whether he’s going to succeed at SS. 

My opinion about Lewis is clearly the minority here. TD still ranks him as the #1 prospect, and he’s still a consensus top 50 prospect. I personally don’t believe the hype and would rather trade him now before it’s determined he’s a star or scrub. 

Yes, Martin has question marks about SS, but we got him precisely because we bought low on him.  We bought low on the pitcher too.  That's how we managed to get both of them.

In your scenario, I want to be the Twins, not the Blue Jays.  I don't want to sell my prospect low so that I have to pair them with another sell-low prospect to get a deal done.  Those kinds of deals will blow up in your face.  (And you for sure won't get much team control in doing so)

I get your hesitation on Lewis though.   I think I share it to some degree.  I'm just a "swing for the fences" kind of guy in terms of what I want my FO to do.  That being the case....I'll always prefer to gamble on a talent that went first overall over selling them for something "sorta fine" in the near term.  Especially when my team is sorta bad right now.