TD Tops Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): Recap

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota added a strong draft class and traded for multiple top-100 prospects at the trade deadline resulting in significant shifts in the team's top prospect rankings. Here is a recap of last week's top-30 prospect countdown.

Minnesota Twins Top 30 Prospects
30. Marco Raya, RHP: Four-pitch mix has the Twins excited about his future.
29. Jovani Moran, LHP: Dominant change-up has him close to the big leagues. 
28. Steve Hajjar, LHP: 2021 Second Round Pick that led the Big 10 in Ks.
27. Wander Javier, SS: Five-tool potential that hasn’t put it all together yet.
26. Alerick Soularie, 2B: One of the best athletes in the Twins system.
25. Chris Vallimont, RHP: Has dynamic stuff, but can his command improve?
24. Louie Varland, RHP: Had dominant stretches at Low- and High-A this season.
23. Nick Gordon, UTL: May have a bright future as a true utility man.
22. Aaron Sabato, 1B: 2020 First Round Pick, whose power is now showing up.
21. Edouard Julien, INF: An on-base machine with some pop and defensive flexibility. 
20. Spencer Steer, INF:  Powerful infielder with college experience.
19. Cole Sands, RHP: Striking out nearly 12 batters per nine at Double-A.
18. Misael Urbina, OF: Showcasing advanced approach even against older competition.
17. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Tommy John surgery will keep him out until 2022.
16: Brent Rooker, OF: Already 26-years old, but has the system's best power tool.
15. Noah Miller, INF: 2021 Compensation Pick that will take time to develop.
14. Drew Strotman, RHP: Intriguing repertoire of major league quality pitches.
13. Gilberto Celestino, OF: Rushed to the MLB level this year but has plenty of tools.
12. Matt Wallner, OF: High strikeout guy with light-tower power.
11. Josh Winder, RHP: He struck out more than 30% of batters he faced at Double-A.
10. Keoni Cavaco, SS: 2019 First Round Pick with five-tool athleticism.
9. Chase Petty, RHP: 2021 First Round Pick with an electric fastball.
8. Matt Canterino, RHP: Recently returned from injury and racking up strikeouts.
7. Joe Ryan, RHP: Acquired for Cruz, he figures to be in the mix for the 2022 rotation.
6. Jose Miranda, 3B: Likely the organization’s minor league player of the year.
5. Jhoan Duran, RHP: Has immense potential if he can stay healthy.
4. Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP: Newly acquired pitcher is very young for Double-A.
3. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Strikeout rate is improving. Triple-A might be his horizon.
2. Austin Martin, SS/CF: Newly acquired prospect is an OBP machine, but will the power come?
1. Royce Lewis, SS: Has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in baseball.

DEBATE AT THE TOP
Austin Martin will be ranked higher than Royce Lewis on many national prospect lists, especially with Lewis missing the entire 2021 season. Both players have tremendous potential, but they each come with their own flaws. 

Martin’s stock might have been low when the Twins dealt for him. He has been getting on-base over 40% of the time this season, but the power he showed in college hasn’t shown up during his pro career. Defensively, he has a lot of flexibility, but that also means there are some questions about his defensive future. 

Lewis dominated the 2019 Arizona Fall League, but this came on the heels of a season where he struggled offensively at High-A and Double-A. He made strides at the team’s alternate site in 2020, and then a fluke injury put him on the sidelines for all of 2021. Like Martin, there are questions about his defensive future, but he has the athleticism to play in multiple spots. Overall, Lewis may have the higher ceiling, and Martin has the higher floor.  

MOVEMENT ON THE LIST
Because of the influx of new prospects, most prospects on this list dropped from their midseason rankings. Jordan Balazovic and Jose Miranda are two prospects that have seen their stock rise the most during the 2021 season. Miranda has been dominating the upper levels of the minors this season, and he should make his big-league debut before the season’s end. Balazovic started the year on the IL, but he has been healthy since then, and his strikeout rate continues to rise.

One of the most significant drops this season has been Aaron Sabato. When the Twins drafted him in 2020, scouting reports touted his powerful swing and advanced approach. His power hadn't made much of an appearance in his first professional season as he was limited to four home runs entering August. Now, he's clubbed six home runs in eight August games. If he continues this powerful pace, there's certainly potential for him to move up this list during the offseason.

TOP 30 POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN

• C- 0
• IF- 10
• OF- 5
• RHP- 13
• LHP- 2

Back in February, Nick identified two deficiencies in the Twins system, high-level infield talent, and left-handed pitching. Minnesota has seen some changes in those two categories this season. Austin Martin adds to the team’s high-level infield talent even if he ends up at second base. Jose Miranda’s emergence also adds to the team’s long-term infield plans.

As far as left-handed pitchers, there weren’t any on the Twins Daily Top-20 list entering the season, and there weren’t any in the top-20 listed above. However, Jovani Moran (29th) looks like he can be a dominant big-league reliever. Steve Hajjar brings in college experience with the potential to move quickly through the minors.

What are your thoughts on the changes to the team’s top prospects? How do you feel about the system as a whole? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion

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[Brandon]

Probably need to add an honorable mention or a 31rst prospect since Rooker is about to graduate from the list.

[Dman]

I was happy to see the Twins take several left handed pitchers early in the draft.  They said they weren't targeting them but they never have had much left handing pitching in the system.  Hopefully they can continue to balance that out a bit more not looking for 50/50 but 30/70 would be nice.  

They still don't have much for Short Stop depth.  I know there is hope for Lewis but he has never been plus there and might have to work hard just to be average at the position.  Martin supposedly ended up with arm problems playing there and doesn't have much experience playing there either.  Palacios seems to be the only player that can stay at short and maybe be average there and that is a big maybe.  He isn't even currently on the 40 man so hard to say how the Twins feel about him.

While you have zero for catcher, Isola looks like he could be something and Camargo and the 5'8" Morales could move up as well.  Plus they added two catchers in the draft and have three fairly young and solid catchers at MLB level so not too worried about that position just yet.

They have a ton of guys for 2nd and or third base so no need for more of those guys.  Surprisingly outfield looks a little thin if you ask me but if you move Martin and or Lewis there then maybe not.

Pitching appears to be the strength of the system let's hope that turns out to be the case and some of those guys become rotation fixtures at the MLB level for a good long time.

With the exception of shortstop the system looks pretty good to me.  There is some really good to great potential there.

[Mike Sixel]

Given their youth, experience, I'm not worried about catcher with Jeffers and Rortvedt. SS? Big issue. 

It's a much deeper system now, which is great. 

[bean5302]

I was about to argue Martin's floor being equal to Lewis, but even though I'm concerned about Lewis, I honestly still do think Lewis has a higher ceiling. The floor is definitely far higher for Martin, though. Martin will absolutely make MLB and he looks like a near guaranteed starter at least.

My viewpoint on the Twins' system is pretty much the same as I've read from analysts. Very deep with a lot of middle value talent, but thin in regard to elite talent. One of the reasons it's so hard to rank the Twins' system is the difficulty in debating a clearly superior talent between numbers 14 and 30, for instance. I'd say the same is the case in 9-14 and 3-8.

[Karbo]

With the season Miranda is having I would move him up higher on the list

[jmlease1]

The more I look at this list, the more I think Moran is too low. I get that FV is limited by him already being slotted in as a reliever, but this season has shown that you need to have some reliable stalwarts in the 'pen and he looks like he could be an anchor from the left side much in the same way Taylor Rogers has been for the past 4 years. I don't believe in spending huge sums on relievers, but you do need to get a few reliable anchors as you sort out who the other guys can be from year to year. Moran's talent puts him closer to 20 than 30 for me.

I might drop Sabato and Wallner a few spots, but that's a minor quibble. Sabato has finally started showing some power, but it's an awfully small sample size to assume he's figured that out, considering how dreadful he's otherwise been this season. Wallner's K rate is worrying, but he's certainly doing better than sabato at this stage.

I had Martin over Lewis; I'm a big fan of Martin. I'm not worried about his power development at this point and his control of the strike zone is fantastic. he can hit and get on base amazingly well for a guy in his first taste of pro ball at AA. He might be someone people say "he's the only guy I know that can go 4 for 3" about. (which was said about a Twins HoFer once upon a time) Lewis still has terrific upside, but he's losing out on two key development years and that has to set you back a little. 

the depth is looking good, even with a bunch of players getting close or ready to graduate off of prospect status. We do still need to find that defensive wizard at SS, and it would be nice to start the development on another catching prospect down in A-ball...but overall the talent pipeline is looking strong.

[old nurse]

The cold reminder on these list is that Arraez and Taylor have been as valuable as Buxton and Sano without spending time anywhere near their level on past lists. 

[DocBauer]

Well, I'm always an optomist, but I really like what I see on this list. While it's really too early to make blanket statements, I can appreciate the opinion that position-wise there may only be a couple 2 or 3 potential difference makers. There are a few young athletes only in their first year or two that have the tools to make them reaĺy exciting another year or two.

Just s couple general comments:

1] OF: Despite Rooker being on this list, he's going to "graduate" from prospect  status soon. AK and Larnach have already graduated. This would seem to leave OF a little light. But I like Celestino a lot and think his floor is 4th OF with a good overall offensive balance. Urbina could be as talented a kid as we've drafted or signed over the past several years. But he's a long way away. I was surprised the Twins only drafted a single OF this year, until you look at the youth just hitting the ML. But you always need depth and don't want to leave any spot short in your system. I could see them grab a few more next year. But there are a few guys not on this list who are very recent selections/signings at A ball and lower who we could be talking about in a couple of years.

2] INFIELD: I read opinions that we're short here, especially at SS, but I'm going to disagree, overall. Opinions differ on Lewis at SS, and I'm not going to get in to a debate here, but the Twins like him there for now and he has the skills, let's just see. Maybe Martin can stick and maybe not. But my goodness, a milb rookie at AA? PLEASE keep him playing there to see! He could end up at 2B, 3Bm CF or LF or super utility with a great BAT. Cavaco has a long way to go, but the potential is there to stick. I like the Miller selection. Steer could end up as a starter somewhere, or a great super utility guy. Julien the same. And there are others. And we signed a couple top international FA last period that obviously aren't on any list yet. So while an arguement could be made we don't exactly have a glut of SS prospects that look tailor made, the infield depth is actually really exciting.

Miranda! 

Do I have to say more? Mmmm....yes. Miranda was a high selection with projectability the Twins liked. Guess what happened? Don't downplay the number of recent selections and signings just because he and  Lewis and Martin are the only TOP prospects currently.

3] CATCHER: I'm going to admit at being a little "meh" here. Jeffers and Rortvedt have basically skyrocketed through the system. But there are a couple of kids who are showing some ability and power in the A leagues that are at least intriguing. I'm glad they grabbed 3 In the draft though I'm unsure if they signed all of them at the moment. We're not exactly desperate here, but a top pick next year may be pertinent. 

4] PITCHING: PLEASE baseball gods, just a LITTLE luck and grace for health and development! (Aren't the Twins due)? This list is heavy with real arm talent. Some of the best I've ever seen in the system. A couple will wash out. A couple will almost certainly turn out to be good/great pen options. A couple should almost certainly become quality ML SP. The talent is there, and you're never quite sure who they will be. Rememeber the mantra; "The best way to find 2-3 quality SP at the ML level is to have 8-10 arms to work with". We have that.

I understand patience is difficult and frustrating. And I understand impatience for the FO to produce a pipeline that was hoped for. But how fast does anyone expect that pipeline to develop? HS or college, you draft and then develop. Results should only take 3-4yrs? Especially with an almost completely lost 2020? Wow! 

Pipeline results? Have you been watching Ober? He was a decent ceiling, probably low floor, draftee flier who has been advanced very aggressively despite limited IP and no 2020. But he has worked hard to re-build his delivery and has been adjusting and learning on the fly and looking like one of the best rookie arms we've seen in many years. And he wasn't ever ranked as a top prospect. Just a guy the FO liked. 

I am uncertain about Jax. He was a high pick the Twins saw with projectability and believed would be released from his military obligation. He wasn't. So his first couple of years was nothing more than a handful of games. So he is a potential late bloomer who just may never turn out as hoped for, But in limited action, promoted aggressively, he's been looking like a kid who MIGHT have a shot to actually make it in some capacity.

Just saying, a couple guys....leaving Barnes out of any discussion at the moment...have been showing actual potential and they aren't even TOP prospects.

I'm feeling very good about what we are going to see over the  next year or two from the system.

The Twins will say they didn't deliberately draft LH pitchers in this past draft, and that's fine. But I think they did. My hunch? A year from now we may be viewing Hajjar as another Winder. Big 10 baseball is far better than most people realize. 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

I like our pipeline - solid but probably not full of projectable all stars. 

I see three position player starters on this list hopefully by 2023: Lewis (ss), Martin (rf) and Miranda (3b).  Coupled with Kiriloff (1B) and Larnach (lf) that could be five starters in the field. Rooker, Gordon, and Celestino are possible bench players. Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt are behind the plate. Sign Buxton, keep Arraez and Polanco and there are 14 solid position players with only two making more than essentially league minimum. 

There are at least a dozen legitimate potential SPs (including Ober and Jax) on the list - we should be able to get at least four of them to give us 5-6 innings of 3 runs or less 75% of the time (i.e. solid #3-4s). A couple more will probably end up in the pen.

We’d clearly have the cash to add at least a solid #2 SP type, a shut down pen, and maybe a FA position player in case of injury or non development. That team could win. 

The Twins FO are positioning us to pursue the classic mid market strategy to make a run. I’m a fan of our future (assuming we resign Buxton). 

[Aichiman]

Just now, Aichiman said:

"Assuming we resign Buxton," and Baldelli resigns.

 

[Minny505]

Would not be surprised to see the Twins with 7 guys on some national 100 lists. 

[Nashvilletwin]

4 hours ago, Aichiman said:

 

That’s actually a really good point. 
 

The Twins have committed the most errors this season and have given up the third most unearned runs. (Couple that with our mid 5s era and it’s easy to see why we stunk up the joint this year)

Its a completely legitimate question to ask if Rocco is the right guy to drive the ongoing development of a team consisting mostly if young players. 

[DJL44]

On 8/17/2021 at 8:43 AM, Brandon said:

Probably need to add an honorable mention or a 31rst prospect since Rooker is about to graduate from the list.

Correct. Rooker is over 130 at-bats so he's no longer a "prospect". Nick Gordon should hit 45 days on the active roster soon as well. Everyone else should maintain rookie status until at least next season. Celestino is the next highest for service time.

[Bill Tanner]

MLB.com rankings agree with the ordering of our top 3 (Lewis, Martin, Balazovic), but I was surprised there weren't more Twins in the top 100 prospects.  Heck, Balazovic barely made it himself as #88.

[ATX Twins Fan]

Maybe this is NBA/NFL thinking, but doesn’t Nick Gordon’s ceiling change dramatically if he hits the weight room and puts on 40lbs the next couple years?

I know on the G&G Pod it’s suggested we over-rate the guy, but he would get dramatically stronger.

positional versatility is one thing, but beef him up.