Twins 40-Man Roster Crunch? Perhaps Not

[Otto von Ballpark]

So we have 46 guys on the current 40-man roster, including the 60-day IL guys.

That goes down to 42 if we don't re-sign any of our 4 impending MLB free agents (including Vincent).

But that goes back up to 48 considering the 6 minor league "locks" to be added for Rule 5 protection.

So we actually have to cut 8 guys from the "up for grabs" list of 15 (Lucas's list minus Vincent), just to make 40 in November:

• Charlie Barnes, LHP
• Devin Smeltzer, LHP
• Beau Burrows, RHP
• Danny Coulombe, LHP
• Luke Farrell, RHP
• Edgar Garcia, RHP
• Ralph Garza Jr., RHP
• Juan Minaya, RHP
• Cody Stashak, RHP
• Lewis Thorpe, LHP
• Derek Law, RHP
• Willians Astudillo, UTIL
• Jake Cave, OF
• Kyle Garlick, OF
• Rob Refsnyder, OF

And we'll need to cut an additional player, beyond 8, for every non-lock prospect we want to protect, or any MLB free agent we sign or re-sign.

It may not qualify as a "crunch" but we'll probably have to make a few tough decisions about interesting players.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Otto von Ballpark
missed one lock

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

I'm disappointed in Larnach,frankly. He has been a 'regular' for some time now this season and hasn't been particularly impressive. Hopefully he improves to the point where he becomes a factor in 2022. There is still time.

I'm not even a little worried about his offense at this point. But I understand why others might be. My point was that I'd rather have him at DH than OF......putting up another blocker for Rooker. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

So we have 46 guys on the current 40-man roster, including the 60-day IL guys.

That goes down to 42 if we don't re-sign any of our 4 impending MLB free agents (including Vincent).

But that goes back up to 48 considering the 6 minor league "locks" to be added for Rule 5 protection.

So we actually have to cut 8 guys from the "up for grabs" list of 15 (Lucas's list minus Vincent), just to make 40 in November:

• Charlie Barnes, LHP
• Devin Smeltzer, LHP
• Beau Burrows, RHP
• Danny Coulombe, LHP
• Luke Farrell, RHP
• Edgar Garcia, RHP
• Ralph Garza Jr., RHP
• Juan Minaya, RHP
• Cody Stashak, RHP
• Lewis Thorpe, LHP
• Derek Law, RHP
• Willians Astudillo, UTIL
• Jake Cave, OF
• Kyle Garlick, OF
• Rob Refsnyder, OF

And we'll need to cut an additional player, beyond 8, for every non-lock prospect we want to protect, or any MLB free agent we sign or re-sign.

It may not qualify as a "crunch" but we'll probably have to make a few tough decisions about interesting players.

I count maybe 6 guys on that list I'd protect for sure. That leaves plenty of room.

Rob Refsnyder, OF
Charlie Barnes, LHP
Danny Coulombe, LHP

Edgar Garcia, RHP

Ralph Garza Jr., RHP

Juan Minaya, RHP

[Otto von Ballpark]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I count maybe 6 guys on that list I'd protect for sure. That leaves plenty of room.

FYI, I missed a lock and edited my post.

If you retain 6 from the "up for grabs" list, that means you have only 1 spot left for protecting non-lock minor leaguers or signing or re-signing *any* MLB free agents.

So you're almost certainly going to end up cutting into that group of 6 too.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Otto von Ballpark said:

FYI, I missed a lock and edited my post.

If you retain 6 from the "up for grabs" list, that means you have only 1 spot left for protecting non-lock minor leaguers or signing or re-signing *any* MLB free agents.

So you're almost certainly going to end up cutting into that group of 6 too.

No biggie there either. All 6 are replaceable, IMO.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Excellent way of presenting this, Lucas, and excellent discussion.

The only thing that I think you missed is at the end when you discuss the 19 players players who will/could be departing, you failed to take into consideration that the current 40-man has 46 players on it with 6 on the 60-day IL.  So the number of potential spots will be 19-6, or 13.  With 5 locks, they are then down to 8 potential spots for both young players to be added and open spots for free agent signings.  So it is probably a lot tighter than you presented.  And that assumes all the 16 players at the end are released, which certainly won't happen.

But I loved the article and expect them to have many lengthy conversations as they approach December.  Personally, I think the most likely of the 50/50 is the first you listed, Enlow.  The next most likely might be Severino, especially if he continues hitting at Cedar Rapids like he has since his promotion.  The other reason may be that they have $2.5M invested in this young man, so I have a feeling he will be added.

The key will be how many of those guys in the last group are retained.  I expect it will be more than we think.  Hopefully, they can trade a few of them, but that doesn't happen that often. 

I think Garlick and Luke are 2 of those 6 and they are accounted for above.  who are the other 4 on the 60 day DL?  were they accounted for above too?

 

[gunnarthor]

The Twins aren't going to release Rooker. He's a first round pick of this FO with options left and immense power. Gordon will be released.

[chpettit19]

4 FA pitchers and maybe a SS depending on their feelings about having Polanco back there next year would be my offseason moves. So they need 4 or 5 40-man spots available for outside guys if they're not trying to basically hand half the pitching staff spots to rookies next year.

The I'd protect are:
Alcala
Balazovic
Colina
Dobnak
Duffey
Duran
Gant
Jax
Maeda
Ober
Rogers
Strotman
Garver
Jeffers
Rortvedt
Arraez
Donaldson
Gordon
Polanco
Sano
Buxton
Celestino
Kepler
Kirilloff
Larnach
Refsnyder

Miranda
Winder
Ryan
Sands
Lewis
Moran
Enlow
Hamilton
Vallimont
Severino- If only bringing in 4 FAs and not 5

I think I counted right and that's 35 or 36 guys. It feels a little pitcher heavy to me, but that's where they need their options going into next year. I think Refsnyder is the only guy on the maybe list that I keep. Wouldn't be sad to see him go either. I don't think there's anyone on that list with a ceiling high enough to risk losing a more controllable player or stop them from bringing in a FA. 

[4twinsJA]

I am in agreement with chpetti19, except would only sign FA SS, FA SP, and 2 FA RP leaving a spot for Rooker and Severino. FA SP will need to be at least midrotation quality, have plenty of end of rotation options-no Happ/Shoemaker/Bailey types.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd protect Severino. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

16 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I think Garlick and Luke are 2 of those 6 and they are accounted for above.  who are the other 4 on the 60 day DL?  were they accounted for above too?

The 60-day IL currently holds Colina, Dobnak, Garlick, Kirilloff, Smeltzer, and Stashak.

Yes, Garlick, Smeltzer, and Stashak were already listed in the "up for grabs" group, but no one's 60-day IL status was accounted for in determining the original "14 spots to play with" figure.

More accurately, it's really more like 7 spots to play with, as we decide who to retain from that "up for grabs" group, any non-lock minor leaguers we want protect (i.e. Enlow, Severino), or any MLB free agents to sign or re-sign.

[Dman]

42 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

4 FA pitchers and maybe a SS depending on their feelings about having Polanco back there next year would be my offseason moves. So they need 4 or 5 40-man spots available for outside guys if they're not trying to basically hand half the pitching staff spots to rookies next year.

The I'd protect are:
Alcala
Balazovic
Colina
Dobnak
Duffey
Duran
Gant
Jax
Maeda
Ober
Rogers
Strotman
Garver
Jeffers
Rortvedt
Arraez
Donaldson
Gordon
Polanco
Sano
Buxton
Celestino
Kepler
Kirilloff
Larnach
Refsnyder

Miranda
Winder
Ryan
Sands
Lewis
Moran
Enlow
Hamilton
Vallimont
Severino- If only bringing in 4 FAs and not 5

I think I counted right and that's 35 or 36 guys. It feels a little pitcher heavy to me, but that's where they need their options going into next year. I think Refsnyder is the only guy on the maybe list that I keep. Wouldn't be sad to see him go either. I don't think there's anyone on that list with a ceiling high enough to risk losing a more controllable player or stop them from bringing in a FA. 

That is pretty close to what I had I also have Thielbar penciled in but if they find someone better in FA I could see him gone.  They don't have much for lefties unless you think Moran takes Thielbar's spot.   I too like Refsnyder but doubt he is a long term answer so if they wanted to go another direction I could be OK with that.  Will have to see how he finishes the season if he slumps I doubt any other team would want him that badly but who knows.  If he does well might be hard to let him go.

Guys I still have concerns about would be Palacios, Contreras and Cabbage.  They all could hit 20 HR's this season and all have OPS's over 800.  A team at the bottom might be willing to take a chance especially given how Baddo, Wade and Miranda turned out this year.  The same would go for Severino if he isn't added.  The Twins seem to have good talent hiding in the upper levels will be interesting to see how much of it gets picked off this year.

[Game7-91]

3 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

I really don't like that an injured + surgery + long rehab player can be plucked from a team via Rule 5 then stashed on the new team's 60-day and carried for the season and be retained.

Pirates did it with Nick Burdi few years back

[Game7-91]

2 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

Pirates did it with Nick Burdi few years back

But agree, its a loophole in rules that should be closed

[Danchat]

I think Enlow is a lock to be protected. Too much upside there. I don’t think Severino is worth protecting, I don’t think he gets claimed as a 2B with a decent minor league track record. Palacios is doing better at a higher level and can play SS, so I’d prefer him on the 40 man.

[roger]

7 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I think Enlow is a lock to be protected. Too much upside there. I don’t think Severino is worth protecting, I don’t think he gets claimed as a 2B with a decent minor league track record. Palacios is doing better at a higher level and can play SS, so I’d prefer him on the 40 man.

I think the Twins have 2,500,000 reasons to protect Severino.

[blindeke]

Just my two cents, but they should add Akil Badoo to the 40 man.

[Dman]

39 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I think Enlow is a lock to be protected. Too much upside there. I don’t think Severino is worth protecting, I don’t think he gets claimed as a 2B with a decent minor league track record. Palacios is doing better at a higher level and can play SS, so I’d prefer him on the 40 man.

You might be right about Severino.  It seems a stretch that he would be Baddoo like out of High A but I think after Baddoo we\they might be hesitant not to keep him.  I think a lot of it will depend on how he finishes the year.  If he finishes hot I don't think they will have a choice as you would be looking at a player likely to succeed at AA the following year so why not roster him and try him at the MLB level a little early.  I could see a team doing that.  Probably the Tigers again.  If he falters down the stretch seems like a longshot.

 To your point we do have a lot of second base depth in the system so losing him wouldn't be the end of the world for a team with several years of Polanco and Arreaz coming up and Spencer Steer in the wings.  They might have enough depth that they just leave him unprotected because there is no way he can help the team in 2022 and he would be taking up a 40 man spot.  They might feel they can't afford to add him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

21 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

But agree, its a loophole in rules that should be closed

It's not really a loophole -- as mentioned upthread, you can't just stash them on the IL until you option them. If they don't have at least 90 days on an MLB active roster by the end of their Rule 5 season (not counting any IL stints or rehab), they still need to remain on your active roster into subsequent seasons, until they reach 90 days.

The Pirates drafted Burdi in December 2017, but by my count, he never even reached 90 active days over the next 3 years -- looks like he had 68, and they were never able to option him. (He may have technically been allowed to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements in 2020 due to the shortened season -- the Rule 5 requirement was reduced from 90 to 50 days for that season only -- but it was moot anyway, as he was DFA'd, cleared waivers, and elected to become a minor league free agent after his 2nd TJ surgery, in October 2020.)

[bean5302]

Honestly, with all the logjammed talent, the potential the new CBA could change roster size, team control, universal DH's etc, trying to figure out how tight things are for the Twins before the rule 5 draft is kinda tough.

I expect the Twins will move at least a couple players this offseason if the universal DH doesn't happen and maybe 3-4 if it does.

[Seth Stohs]

5 hours ago, Silas said:

What about Andrew Vasquez at AAA/St. Paul?  Why don't we ever hear anything about him?  Pretty good stats...big lefthander....27 yrs old.......drafted by the Twins.  Why isn't he a candidate to come up to the big club?  What am I missing here?

That one game in 2019 really scared people away, apparently. It was a bad game, but still. He's got good K numbers. He's good vs Lefties. He just gets himself in trouble when he doesn't throw strikes. But, definitely worth considering. 

[Game7-91]

2 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

It's not really a loophole -- as mentioned upthread, you can't just stash them on the IL until you option them. If they don't have at least 90 days on an MLB active roster by the end of their Rule 5 season (not counting any IL stints or rehab), they still need to remain on your active roster into subsequent seasons, until they reach 90 days.

The Pirates drafted Burdi in December 2017, but by my count, he never even reached 90 active days over the next 3 years -- looks like he had 68, and they were never able to option him. (He may have technically been allowed to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements in 2020 due to the shortened season -- the Rule 5 requirement was reduced from 90 to 50 days for that season only -- but it was moot anyway, as he was DFA'd, cleared waivers, and elected to become a minor league free agent after his 2nd TJ surgery, in October 2020.)

Thanks for clarifying. Does the 90 day rule apply to the 40 man roster or 26?

[Otto von Ballpark]

4 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

Thanks for clarifying. Does the 90 day rule apply to the 40 man roster or 26?

26-man roster -- so only regular season days count toward it too.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Dman said:

That is pretty close to what I had I also have Thielbar penciled in but if they find someone better in FA I could see him gone.  They don't have much for lefties unless you think Moran takes Thielbar's spot.   I too like Refsnyder but doubt he is a long term answer so if they wanted to go another direction I could be OK with that.  Will have to see how he finishes the season if he slumps I doubt any other team would want him that badly but who knows.  If he does well might be hard to let him go.

Guys I still have concerns about would be Palacios, Contreras and Cabbage.  They all could hit 20 HR's this season and all have OPS's over 800.  A team at the bottom might be willing to take a chance especially given how Baddo, Wade and Miranda turned out this year.  The same would go for Severino if he isn't added.  The Twins seem to have good talent hiding in the upper levels will be interesting to see how much of it gets picked off this year.

I listed quite a few options for the bench.  I don't think they will all be kept.  Just that we have control on all of them beyond this season and can make an effective bench from what we already have.  

I agree with you on those in the minors.  Some players will get exposed to the rule 5 draft.  I hope the one who get picked do well.   I just want our team to do better.  

[Game7-91]

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

26-man roster -- so only regular season days count toward it too.

Thanks for all that. Makes better sense. And too bad abt Burdi, hadnt heard he was having tj#2. Hope he can come back next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 minutes ago, Game7-91 said:

Thanks for all that. Makes better sense. And too bad abt Burdi, hadnt heard he was having tj#2. Hope he can come back next year.

Nick Burdi actually got a minor league deal for this season, so he's rehabbing as an official member of the Padres organization. Haven't heard anything about how that is going, though, but I'd guess the Padres will have the inside track on giving him a minor league deal for 2022, if they want to.

[twinstalker]

thanks for this

[jun]

I don't think Refsnyder and Smeltzer should be protected on the 40-man roster. Cave should be let go after the season.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

4 FA pitchers and maybe a SS depending on their feelings about having Polanco back there next year would be my offseason moves. So they need 4 or 5 40-man spots available for outside guys if they're not trying to basically hand half the pitching staff spots to rookies next year.

[...]

I think I counted right and that's 35 or 36 guys. It feels a little pitcher heavy to me, but that's where they need their options going into next year. I think Refsnyder is the only guy on the maybe list that I keep. Wouldn't be sad to see him go either. I don't think there's anyone on that list with a ceiling high enough to risk losing a more controllable player or stop them from bringing in a FA. 

 

17 hours ago, 4twinsJA said:

I am in agreement with chpetti19, except would only sign FA SS, FA SP, and 2 FA RP leaving a spot for Rooker and Severino...

 

Although counting open spots for future free agents in the 40 is useful for this exercise, when the Twins org is actually managing their roster in the offseason, there's no need to hold spots open for free agents they're yet to sign - I think anyone besides the newly added players can be cut from the 40-man at any time. There may be some other rules about player movement on and off rosters in the offseason that I don't remember (?), but in general, they can (and probably will) keep a few more of those marginal/"maybe" guys early in the offseason but it won't stop them from making free agent additions.

[TopGunn#22]

Where does a guy like Griffen Jax fit into this equation ??