Week in Review: Rookies Pitching In

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Not unless he can hit enough to offset it, like a Cruz or Schwarber. That's an incredibly high bar, but Rooker's raw power is so amazing it's really hard to just give up. 

Then again, there's an opportunity cost to chasing that perceived power potential. I think of someone like Kennys Vargas, who got wayyy more chances than he should have -- at the expense of other possible assets -- because he could mash in BP and looked good during a brief MLB debut. (Actually, that example makes me a little apprehensive about Rooker going on a tear in September...) 

I'm not sure I agree about Kennys Vargas getting too many chances and his numbers look surprisingly close to Sano's at the MLB level, but with way fewer games and opportunities. Vargas did have an awful age 24 season with 184 plate appearances, but he played better the next two seasons. The Twins cut bait on Vargas after a wRC+ 119 and 99 at ages 25 and 26 letting him spend an unimpressive year in Rochester at age 27 before he went to Japan. Ultimately, Vargas never really showed much potential after the MLB seasons with the Twins, but his raw power was absolutely on par with Rookers and better than Sano's IMHO.

Interestingly enough, he's in the Mexican League this year .310/.418/.603 OPS 1.020, but while the Mexican League is listed as AAA level, I think most comparisons actually show it's A+ or something, I read somewhere... There's also another player in the Mexican League who may be a dark horse to get a MiLB contract as depth with the slight potential of returning to MLB. Addison Russell is hanging out down there. .319/.405/.494 OPS 900. Russell was never a good bat at SS, but he did play good defense. 

[Dodecahedron]

11 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not sure I agree about Kennys Vargas getting too many chances and his numbers look surprisingly close to Sano's at the MLB level, but with way fewer games and opportunities. Vargas did have an awful age 24 season with 184 plate appearances, but he played better the next two seasons. The Twins cut bait on Vargas after a wRC+ 119 and 99 at ages 25 and 26 letting him spend an unimpressive year in Rochester at age 27 before he went to Japan. Ultimately, Vargas never really showed much potential after the MLB seasons with the Twins, but his raw power was absolutely on par with Rookers and better than Sano's IMHO.

Interestingly enough, he's in the Mexican League this year .310/.418/.603 OPS 1.020, but while the Mexican League is listed as AAA level, I think most comparisons actually show it's A+ or something, I read somewhere... There's also another player in the Mexican League who may be a dark horse to get a MiLB contract as depth with the slight potential of returning to MLB. Addison Russell is hanging out down there. .319/.405/.494 OPS 900. Russell was never a good bat at SS, but he did play good defense. 

I'm a Vargas fan for sure.  I felt if the Twins were going to roll with Sano, they may as well just have kept Vargas.  

After his first year, Vargas's "chances" felt like a lot of small sample sizes resulting in him being sent back to the minors once he seemed to be getting into a groove.

[bean5302]

I agree. Gardy, Molitor and Ryan didn't like Vargas and were quick to kick him to the curb. The Twins were packed with 1B/DH's already so Vargas didn't have a clear role on the team.

[Nick Nelson]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not sure I agree about Kennys Vargas getting too many chances and his numbers look surprisingly close to Sano's at the MLB level, but with way fewer games and opportunities.

His career OPS is like 70 points lower than Sano's. I wouldn't say they are "surprisingly close." Vargas produced 0.6 WAR in his best season whereas Sano has only been below that number once (not counting the 60-game season).

You can say the Twins were of the right mind to give Vargas a decent look back then, but you can't really say in hindsight it was valuable to give him all those PAs at the expense of others. And that's the lesson I'm trying to apply here with Rooker. 

Y'all are frankly wild to be putting either of these guys in the same category as Sano. He's had multiple seasons that are beyond either of their ceilings.

[Nick Nelson]

17 hours ago, h2oface said:

Middle or back of rotation. Serviceable strike-thrower. Add innings eater. Crafty. Etc. Etc. I get all that. And those terms always make me cringe. Especially if it is what one choses to fill their rotation with instead of young pitchers from the farm that could be so much better with time instead of just the same consistent innings eater, a term that one in baseball uses when they can't come up with anything better to say and want to be nice. I just want the Twins to shoot higher than to consistantly be all that. And I don't believe that inspiration comes from out of shape vets with a record that includes PED suspension.

Well, those terms only apply to the pitcher Pineda has been over the past couple months, in a diminished form. The idea here is to get him back to the pitcher he's been on balance with the Twins, which is a very good starter and not a mediocre "innings eater" by any stretch. Dude has a 3.98 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 258 IP here. That's outstanding. The idea that you can easily find better arms for the middle/back of your rotation is extremely off-base.