Help Me Understand Falvey and Levine’s Obsession with Waiver Wire Pitchers

[Vanimal46]

This method of filling innings in down seasons with veteran pitchers that are off the team the following year and waiver wire pick ups continues to be a trend. In 2016 and 2018 the reason given for this method was the talent pipeline wasn’t ready. Which was fair. Not much in the cupboard during that time. Is that what we’re going with this year? If so, we’ve got some bigger issues to talk about…

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, include me in this explanation because I don’t get it. 

[TheLeviathan]

Play and pitch lottery tickets.  I'm with you Van...this doesnt make sense.

[4twinsJA]

Like OP said, made sense in past years when did not have pitchers in AAA ready for MLB and had a contending team that did not want to throw a rookie into a pennant race. But now, don't understand, with season winding down and obvious Twins don't have contending team, why not give some of the AAA pitchers a shot. I understand, somewhat, the 40 man roster situation, but when there has been an opening, Twins pick up a cast off or promote a 35 yo reliever instead of giving Moran or Hamilton an opportunity.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Fear of commitment?

I'm only partially kidding. There seems to be some sort of psychology that they love to chase the next project rather than embracing and finishing what is in the organization. Is this fed by chasing the best numerical indicators of future performance, and hoping that those just magically become actual performance?

Also waiting for someone to come along and provide justification for this strategy, not just for the tactical decision to pick up pitcher A or pitcher B

[Dave The Dastardly]

Never been able to understand it myself, this preference for reclamation projects over "prospects" we're supposedly developing. If the Twins have some magical ability to "save" stumbling veterans, why not bring up their best prospects from the minor leagues and use that same effort to finish off their development at the major league level? Yeah, they'll lose some games but so do those reclamation projects that take up a spot on the 40-man and hold back the careers of younger developing players... until we lose them in the Rule 5 draft.

[bean5302]

Most logical explanations?

• Falvey doesn't believe in the talent level or readiness of the prospects at the high minors.
• Falvey is stronly confident in what they have at the high minors and has already decided who is going to be on the 40 man next year. He doesn't believe it's necessary to showcase the players.

[sjunisu]

I would not discount some 'hubris' involved in these moves - meaning them trying show how much smarter/better they are at analyzing pitching than the other FOs if they find the perverbial needle in a haystack.

[lukeduke1980]

It feels like they are trying to do something that no one else is really doing, and now the season is basically extended spring training so guys just keep coming in for a closer look.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I get it in the case of guys like Burrows and Garza, who are young enough and have enough of a pedigree (as a prospect for Burrows, with good performances for Garza) that it’s worth taking a shot.

But picking up Nick Vincent I do not understand. Wasn’t that the right spot for Moran?

[4twinsJA]

7 minutes ago, sjunisu said:

I would not discount some 'hubris' involved in these moves - meaning them trying show how much smarter/better they are at analyzing pitching than the other FOs if they find the perverbial needle in a haystack.

I somewhat agree, believe 'hubris' part of problem with offseason pickups. FO feeling like they can identify pitchers that were underperforming and just need to be tweaked. Didn't work out too well this year, Nobody hits a homerun every at bat, but picking up cast offs/low priced FAs from other teams can't be the teams primary way to acquire talent. This FO was suppose to be able to develop pitchers. There are plenty of pitchers at high minors that seem ready, lets start seeing some of them at MLB level.

[ToddlerHarmon]

15 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Most logical explanations?

• Falvey doesn't believe in the talent level or readiness of the prospects at the high minors.
• Falvey is stronly confident in what they have at the high minors and has already decided who is going to be on the 40 man next year. He doesn't believe it's necessary to showcase the players.

I agree that if they see little difference in a prospect getting AAA innings and MLB innings, that explains a lot of their moves. But flies in the face of a lot of experience

[Brandon]

Depends on when the pitcher was signed?  He was in the minors and may be promoting him to show others in his class that the Twins are the team of opportunity so when we are in contention and looking to build our depth they can sell those relievers on their history and really improve our depth in competetive seasons.  It costs us 20 to 30 innings.  We will find opportunities for Moran.

 

I think the other thing to consider is how many rookies do you want up at a time?  We have 3 likely soon 4 rookies in the rotation. Several bad days in a row will burn out the pen. Better to have a pitcher you can push in terms of work like Vincent vs chancing an injury on a rookie pitcher throwing too much. Or at least you want someone who can get outs in case the bullpen rookies are imploding at the same time as the starter rookies.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

I agree that if they see little difference in a prospect getting AAA innings and MLB innings, that explains a lot of their moves. But flies in the face of a lot of experience

It's the best I can do to explain their moves or non-moves like playing Simmons every day and leaving Palacios in AA. The note about the front offices' hubris from above does seem a bit likely.

[MN_ExPat]

39 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Most logical explanations?

• Falvey doesn't believe in the talent level or readiness of the prospects at the high minors.
• Falvey is stronly confident in what they have at the high minors and has already decided who is going to be on the 40 man next year. He doesn't believe it's necessary to showcase the players.

This would seem a logical conclusion.  I might also add that there are probably service time considerations going into this as well.  I'd have to believe that they don't want to start the service clock on some of these players in the midst (or perhaps because of) a lost season.

[roger]

Makes a lot of sense to me.  Being among the first teams in the waiver pecking order, the Twins have the pick of those players waived.  If player x (mostly pitchers) looks interesting, why not give him a whirl  

I see it as an advanced try-out period for next year's roster.  Give'em a couple weeks or month with the Twins to see first hand what he has.  If he looks promising, keep him around until next year.  If not, waive him and move on to the next.  

Goal would be to find one or two good prospects for their 2022 roster/bullpen.  That makes sense to me.  Now I also don't have a clue if that is what they are thinking.  Or not?

[Otto von Ballpark]

2 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

This would seem a logical conclusion.  I might also add that there are probably service time considerations going into this as well.  I'd have to believe that they don't want to start the service clock on some of these players even in the midst (or perhaps because of) a lost season.

I doubt that service time is any consideration for guys like Moran. He's already not eligible for FA until age 31, and as a reliever, he won't earn much in arbitration -- Pressly topped out at $2.9 mil, May at $2.2 mil, etc. Even Rogers, inflated by a 30 save season as closer, is only around $6 mil now. Heck, even those early FA years should be affordable, if we want to buy them out -- Pressly is making $8.75 mil and May $7.55 mil this year.

Service time is primarily a consideration for elite starting prospects, and mostly position players -- their earning potential is much higher, and the value of that 7th "Kris Bryant" season of control is more projectable/stable.

[MN_ExPat]

18 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I doubt that service time is any consideration for guys like Moran. He's already not eligible for FA until age 31, and as a reliever, he won't earn much in arbitration -- Pressly topped out at $2.9 mil, May at $2.2 mil, etc. Even Rogers, inflated by a 30 save season as closer, is only around $6 mil now. Heck, even those early FA years should be affordable, if we want to buy them out -- Pressly is making $8.75 mil and May $7.55 mil this year.

Service time is primarily a consideration for elite starting prospects, and mostly position players -- their earning potential is much higher, and the value of that 7th "Kris Bryant" season of control is more projectable/stable.

I concur.  Although I wasn't necessarily referring to all of the prospects and players in the system.  Also, starting the clock also includes team control, not just the salary portion.

Regardless I do concur, just stating that the team control/service time thought is probably on the minds of the FO.

[Rik19753]

39 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

This would seem a logical conclusion.  I might also add that there are probably service time considerations going into this as well.  I'd have to believe that they don't want to start the service clock on some of these players in the midst (or perhaps because of) a lost season.

I think seasons like these are the most opportune time to bring up prospects to see what they have. The front office has made it clear in multiple occasions that they would choose a veteran player over an unproven prospect when the team is contending, so this seems like the perfect time to give guys like Moran an audition. If you aren't going to promote prospects when you are contending, but you also don't want to call them up in a lost season due to service time reasons, when are they going to get a chance?

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, 4twinsJA said:

Like OP said, made sense in past years when did not have pitchers in AAA ready for MLB and had a contending team that did not want to throw a rookie into a pennant race. But now, don't understand, with season winding down and obvious Twins don't have contending team, why not give some of the AAA pitchers a shot. I understand, somewhat, the 40 man roster situation, but when there has been an opening, Twins pick up a cast off or promote a 35 yo reliever instead of giving Moran or Hamilton an opportunity.

I am firmly convinced it is because it is an organizational philosophy that we baby pitchers in their development.  We limit our prospects from the day they enter the organization in pitch counts and innings pitched each year.  How many times have we "shut down" prospects for the year to "protect" their arms?  We don't believe in stretching out a pitcher to see what he can do, so we have to pick up pitchers to fill in the innings, I guess.  It serves a 2nd purpose, I suppose as well, to see if they simply do better in our organization, but first and foremost it is to baby our own pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's not that the cupboard is bare, but it is hurt.

Duran was arguably our top/closest pitching prospect but started late and got shut down with injuries.

Colina has been out all year. Thorpe and Smeltzer most of the year. Winder moved up from AA to AAA this year but he's hurt now too. These guys were all supposed to be our top minor league depth.

Balazovic and Sands would have been the next level, each coming into the year with only 1 game of experience at AA. Balazovic missed the first part of the season, and Sands a month in the middle, so they're still only up to 14 career games each at AA in mid-August.

Exacerbating the issue, the MLB staff has been hit hard by the injury bug as well -- younger guys like Dobnak, Stashak, and Alcala, plus vets like Maeda, Pineda, and Rogers -- lots of guys. So our need for reinforcements has been greater, at the exact same time that our reinforcements themselves are depleted.

[Otto von Ballpark]

11 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

I concur.  Although I wasn't necessarily referring to all of the prospects and players in the system.  Also, starting the clock also includes team control, not just the salary portion.

Regardless I do concur, just stating that the team control/service time thought is probably on the minds of the FO.

In regards to team control, I mentioned that Moran is already controlled through age 30.

I'm sure the FO always has service time and control on their mind -- it can come up at odd times, like the Buxton situation in 2018 -- but right now, for our minor league pitchers, it's just not much of a factor. I just did a run-down above, and frankly I think Moran is the only healthy one ready to jump to MLB. In addition to injuries, the lost 2020 minor league season, and delayed 2021 start, hurt too.

[Thegrin]

The way I see it, these pitchers did something in the minors to make their former clubs think they would be able to pitch at the major league level.  All of them have a small sample size of innings pitched in the majors. Maybe one or more of them will find that magic sauce that will make them a competent major league pitcher.  If they find one good one, great for Falvine. If they find 2 or more throw a parade and bring on the dancing girls. 

[yeahyabetcha]

It might be a minority opinion, but I don’t see any Twins minor league pitching options that would have to see the majors this year.  The best arms are either injured, coming off injuries or frankly have not been all that awesome.  Moran might be the exception, but he has barely even pitched at AAA

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

This would seem a logical conclusion.  I might also add that there are probably service time considerations going into this as well.  I'd have to believe that they don't want to start the service clock on some of these players in the midst (or perhaps because of) a lost season.

Service time for relief pitchers already in their mid 20s? I hope not.....heck... Service time for relief pitchers at all?

This makes no sense. They should be preparing for next year. 

[jorgenswest]

It isn’t just the Twins. Many teams extend the pitching on their 40 man roster with waiver wire claims. It helps to have players that you bring in to throw innings and protect the arms of the other pitchers while keeping some flexibility on the 40 man roster. If a need arises to create a spot on the 40 they can DFA Garza and fill that spot with perhaps another arm that can give them some innings.

If they put Cano or Hamilton or Moran on the 40 they need to remain on the 40 man roster. I don’t think it is a fascination but rather 40 man management and innings load management in a year where they are careful with the innings of several of their pitchers. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Thegrin said:

The way I see it, these pitchers did something in the minors to make their former clubs think they would be able to pitch at the major league level.  All of them have a small sample size of innings pitched in the majors. Maybe one or more of them will find that magic sauce that will make them a competent major league pitcher.  If they find one good one, great for Falvine. If they find 2 or more throw a parade and bring on the dancing girls. 

While there's a hint of truth to this, I think it's a little too optimistic. Guys who are exposed to waivers like this are more often players their front offices did not believe in at all. Despite not believing in those players, their front office felt like it would be irresponsible to write them completely off before seeing if the player could beat the odds at the MLB level.

It may feel like a foreign concept to Twins fans because our front office doesn't seem to operate this way. It seems our front office is much more confident in their player evaluations without seeing them at the MLB level.

[TheLeviathan]

38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Service time for relief pitchers already in their mid 20s? I hope not.....heck... Service time for relief pitchers at all?

This makes no sense. They should be preparing for next year. 

Injuries or "Not ready" are defensible reasons, but not service time.  I can understand why the club is in a bit of a bind playing younger guys with their injury situation, but then I look at the Nick Gordon situation and I have to wonder what the hell these guys in the FO are doing with this opportunity to let some guys play.

[4twinsJA]

Hopefully new CBA will reduce motivation for teams to hold done prospects, Not sure how that would look, but needs to be addressed.

[Linus]

My guess is they are gathering info for 40 man decisions this fall. I guess if you were ever to get lucky on one of these waiver deals it would be when you get one of the first cracks at them.