Twins Options at Shortstop in 2022

[Major League Ready]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd rather take the chance Lewis works out, and have a great SS signed, than Lewis isn't really good in 2023..... Do people expect him to be good in his first full year in the majors?

They aren't signing two expensive starting pitchers, imo. They probably don't need a third baseman, second baseman, first baseman, catcher, or outfielder...... And Donaldson comes off the books in two years. 

I guess Buxton and an elite pitcher is possible.... But I'd rather sign a SS and Buxton and one great SP.... Which they can afford. I understand others don't agree, and I'm ok with that.

I am 100% with you on this one.  The young SPs have looked like they can more than hold their own.  I would much rather have one really good SP than a couple Pineda / Happ types.  Give me Rodon (or similar) plus Maeda and 3 of Ober / Jax / Barnes / Ryan / Winder to start the season and we should do quite well.  Balazovic / Duran waiting in the wings with SWR / Enlow and Canterino not far behind.  A couple of these guys are going to end up booting our BP nicely.

Polanco needs to stay at 2B.  SS would be a good free agent investment but I could also see trading Arraez for a SS that is being blocked elsewhere.  Miranda could fill that role next year and eventually replace Donaldson.  Really hope they can come to terms with Buxton.  We might not be a true contender in 2022 with these moves but we will be close and should be in the thick of it in 2023.  That's a nice rebound.

[theBOMisthebomb]

13 hours ago, RpR said:

That is what the minor league is for; not dumping on paying spectators in major league games.

Gordon is a first round pick and the Twins are running out of time with him. It's more than fair to paying customers at Target Field for the Twins to give Gordon an extended look in August and September of a lost season. Gordon's athleticism and speed could be a nice complement in the Twins lineup. 

[RpR]

5 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

Gordon is a first round pick and the Twins are running out of time with him. It's more than fair to paying customers at Target Field for the Twins to give Gordon an extended look in August and September of a lost season. Gordon's athleticism and speed could be a nice complement in the Twins lineup. 

Fans go to a game to see a team win, unless they are masochists; they do not spend money to see owners throw crap against a wall to see what sticks.

[Matthew Lenz]

On 8/15/2021 at 8:01 AM, yeahyabetcha said:

I could be wrong, but it sure seems to me that the Twins do not view Polanco, Gordon, Martin or Miranda as major league options at SS, other than as possible spot starters.  Not sure they should even be considered as options to fill this role at this point.

 

[Matthew Lenz]

On 8/15/2021 at 10:30 AM, bean5302 said:

The Twins have moved on from Gordon. He's not even playing SS in AAA anymore, he's being used as an IF/OF utility guy. He's not going to get a 40 man roster spot. 0% 

Austin Martin couldn't supplant Palacios at SS. 0% 

Jose Miranda hasn't played any significant time at SS since 2016. 0% 

Jorge Polanco. Yeah, I could see the Twins shifting him back over to SS despite being the worst fielding shortstop in the game in the past 20 years. 40%

Royce Lewis. It would be totally bonkers to make him opening day shortstop. Lewis is a prospect who wasn't even treading water at AA at the plate while being absolutely a nightmare in the field in his last full competition experience 2 years ago and is now rehabbing a full tear of his ACL. 0%

JT Riddle. Yeah. MiLB roster filler entering his second year or arbitration eligibility isn't happening. 0%. 

Drew Maggi? He's arbitration eligible next year so he'll be non-tendered. 0%

Jermaine Palacios. I have no idea on this one. He's one of the best SS at AA this year and certainly top 3 who is still sitting in AA despite the fact the Twins have nothing blocking him or on the roster. I really expect the Twins to leave him off the roster. 5%

Andrelton Simmons. LOL all you want, everything seems to point to Simmons being back next year IMHO. He's still playing every day and the Twins haven't even bothered to look at Palacios despite a stellar performance in AA. It's ridiculous, but I can't see why the Twins would be playing Simmons every day at this point if they hadn't decided this year is a fluke and they'll be ohhhhhhh so smart when they sign him for peanuts and they fix him to return him to top form next year... puke. 50%

 

[Matthew Lenz]

On 8/15/2021 at 11:50 AM, Thegrin said:

Seriously folks. How many innings has Miranda played at SS in the minors?  What makes anyone think he is a solution to the Twins SS needs? 

284 but only 19 this year.

This whole article is based on the premise that we are looking for a one year-ish filler until Royce Lewis is healthy and ready. He’s not a “solution”.

[Mike Sixel]

Meh. Gordon is on the bench, and Simmons is in the lineup.....

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

 

...and he's on the bench for the game. Gordon is on the 40 man, he has options and he can provide bench utility.

[Matthew Lenz]

19 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

...and he's on the bench for the game. Gordon is on the 40 man, he has options and he can provide bench utility.

LOL.

I’m not saying he’s a good shortstop. I’m not saying he’s the solution. As you point, and as I concluded my article, I think he is someone who can fill-in there once in a while. Despite him not being in the lineup tonight, him practicing at shortstop isn’t for ****s and gigs.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Meh. Gordon is on the bench, and Simmons is in the lineup.....

FFS.

[bean5302]

Right. It's so they can put him in as a defensive replacement if Simmons gets pinch hit for or gets hurt. Gordon has been on the roster for 83 games so far this year by my count. He's played in 37 of those 83 games and started at shortstop 0 times while appearing at shortstop in 1 game for 5.0 innings. The Twins haven't even had Nick Gordon playing consistent SS in the minors since his last demotion to AAA. On his most recent assignment with the Saints, Gordon appeared at SS, 2B, 3B, LF, CF and as a pinch hitter starting in only 70% of Saints games. He's below Drew Maggi and JT Riddle on the SS depth chart as both of those guys had more time playing SS than Gordon in his most recent stint.

This thread was about next year's potential starting shortstops. If you're implying the Twins have any remote interest in starting Nick Gordon at SS in 2022, I just don't see any evidence to suggest it's a possibility. In fact, I think it's plenty clear the Twins don't view Gordon as a 40 man roster candidate at this point.

[bean5302]

I should point out, I don't think there's anything to be mad about as Twins fans. The front office has made their call on the subject. They've seen all they need to of Nick Gordon and are seemingly preparing to move on after the season. Here's hoping they make the right call and another team isn't hugely rewarded with a legit starting shortstop for giving Gordon a better opportunity if the Twins do leave him off the 40 man.

[DocBauer]

If the Twins make a HUGE investment on a 2yr or 5yr deal for one of the top SS on the market, I'm not going to cry. I'll be tickled pink, dance a big, etc, I just don't think that's the direction they are going to go, and not sure they should. 

There are a whole lot of reasons to look at the Twins right now and feel very optimistic about the offense/lineup/depth next season. And despite all the young pitching talent in the system, if you really want to contend, pitching is where the $ has to be focused on.

I don't think we should LOL at Simmons. Even slipping, he's quality defensively. His offense this year has been aweful after April. But for his career, his offense hasn't been dreadfully aweful for a generational defensive talent. I am NOT  saying anything  NEGATIVE about him as a person, but he has caught a lot of flack for his early covid illness and opinions. And I don't recall anyone ever stating was a problem player in any way for any team he has been on. But sometimes guys just don't "fit in" with a team, I have no idea if he "fits" on this team. But I wouldn't dismiss him as an option so easily for 2022.

I think Iglesias and Galvin are both interesting options for next year. I think Galvin might be the better idea. My initial thoughts are a 1yr deal with an option.

I am frustrated that Palacios hasn't been promoted to St Paul yet. I guess it's my understanding that despite production and a decent glove, the "hit/contact" ability may not be where they want it just yet.

[USAFChief]

6 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

 

Gordon wasn't even playing SS in St Paul. Tonight he subbed in, and they moved Polanco over to SS, Gordon to 2b.

Gordon at SS is a ship that sailed, except in an emergency.

[tony&rodney]

Trevor Story is not looking as desirable as Correa, Seager, or Semien, but that may be cause to land him on a one year contract. Simmons is getting plenty of usage and has done well in the field, but I'm thinking it is time to move on from him after this year closes. 

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Trevor Story is not looking as desirable as Correa, Seager, or Semien, but that may be cause to land him on a one year contract. Simmons is getting plenty of usage and has done well in the field, but I'm thinking it is time to move on from him after this year closes. 

 

Story may not be looking quite as good as the other elites, but if he's truly interested in signing a 1 year contract, he'd take the QO. Story is on pace for about 3.0 WAR this year. Sprint speed, K rate, BB rate, barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity, launch angle, pull, center, opposite rates. They're all normal for him. His HR/FB rate and line drive rate are down a bit with his grounders up a bit, but honestly, it looks a lot like luck this year with his BABIP 40 points below his career average. His max and average home run distance is normal, but his average distance is down a bit, but it's still top 25%. Either Story has been really lucky for 3 years in a row or he's been unlucky this year. I suspect most teams are going to evaluate him as such. With 1.5 months left, there's still some time for Story to pad his stats as well.

I don't see a way Story won't get at least 6-8 years and $150MM-200MM+

[bean5302]

If you really want to get fun with SS, Eduardo Escobar is a free agent. Sprint speed is still very good and virtually identical to what it was in 2016. His 5-25 foot speed is nearly identical to Byron Buxton this year (not joking) in statcast. Escobar is not elite in terms of 5 foot speed and quickness, but it's entirely possible he would be an adequate shortstop placed into the position.

[Vanimal46]

Moving Polanco back to SS is taking a step back from what they attempted to do last winter, improving infield defense. It was a sound strategy, but Simmons isn’t pulling his weight at the plate. They gotta keep the strategy going, and sign a better player. I have no expectations Lewis will be ready to be a full time SS in 2023. Hell, I don’t think he’ll be a full time SS at all. 

Take advantage of the historic SS free agency class and sign any of Seager, Siemian, Baez, or Story. 

[bean5302]

With SF taking the opportunity to extend Crawford (the best short term option on the market for the Twins), I honestly expect the Blue Jays to put forth a big effort for Semien and probably get it done before year end. That leave Baez who has some super scary peripherals when it comes to long term contract he will get. Are the Twins going to outbid the Yankees for Story? The historic projected shortstop free agent market may start drying up before we even get to free agency.

[RpR]

If I were a betting man, my money is on Simmons coming back; with help from a hitting coach next year.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, RpR said:

If I were a betting man, my money is on Simmons coming back; with help from a hitting coach next year.

Please no. 

[Mike Sixel]

31 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

With SF taking the opportunity to extend Crawford (the best short term option on the market for the Twins), I honestly expect the Blue Jays to put forth a big effort for Semien and probably get it done before year end. That leave Baez who has some super scary peripherals when it comes to long term contract he will get. Are the Twins going to outbid the Yankees for Story? The historic projected shortstop free agent market may start drying up before we even get to free agency.

Which, imo, is the fallacy of "you can wait until next year to sign a guy" talk here.....if you have a hole, and there is a great player you can afford, sign him. Even if you "won't be good" until a year later.....that hole is filled. Trying to time your contention with when the exact player you need is there in FA is like trying to time the stock market.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

If I were a betting man, my money is on Simmons coming back; with help from a hitting coach next year.

I am not so sure.  I could see Iglesias or Galvis.  Simmons offense has been bad enough they just might move on.  I do love the way Simmons plays the game but we should explore other options.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which, imo, is the fallacy of "you can wait until next year to sign a guy" talk here.....if you have a hole, and there is a great player you can afford, sign him. Even if you "won't be good" until a year later.....that hole is filled. Trying to time your contention with when the exact player you need is there in FA is like trying to time the stock market.

It would be interesting to see the productivity (WAR) for free agent position players after the 1st year of a new contract.  As you know, I did this analysis for free agent pitchers and it was not pretty.  As a mater of fact it would suggest this is an ill-advised strategy.  I say "suggests" because the same size is too small to be conclusive,

Lorenzo Cain is a good example.  He was great the first year (5.7 WAR)  The next year (2019) he produced 1.5 WAR.  Then, .2 WAR in 2020, the Covid season and so far this year has produced .9 WAR.  I examined all FA pitchers with 5+ year contracts going back several years.  Obviously, this is just one position player and I doubt the drop-off after the 1st year is as extreme with position players.

[RpR]

If, if Gordon stays with the Twins, we may, although I doubt with this dead base running offense, see a Twin steal home again.

[TheLeviathan]

5 hours ago, RpR said:

If I were a betting man, my money is on Simmons coming back; with help from a hitting coach next year.

So our plan, from someone who keeps harp on winning as the most important, is to give a 32 year old, who has never been a good hitter, a hitting coach and he'll.....magically not suck anymore?

Good lord.  

[RpR]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

So our plan, from someone who keeps harp on winning as the most important, is to give a 32 year old, who has never been a good hitter, a hitting coach and he'll.....magically not suck anymore?

Good lord.  

He has never been a home run hitter but far from not being a good hitter.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2012	22	ATL	NL	49	182	166	17	48	8	2	3	19	1	0	12	21	.289	.335	.416	.751	101	69	5	1	0	3	1	6
2013	23	ATL	NL	157	658	606	76	150	27	6	17	59	6	5	40	55	.248	.296	.396	.692	90	240	16	3	5	4	1	*6/H	MVP-14,GG
2014	24	ATL	NL	146	576	540	44	132	18	4	7	46	4	5	32	60	.244	.286	.331	.617	75	179	25	0	2	2	4	*6/H	GG
2015	25	ATL	NL	147	583	535	60	142	23	2	4	44	5	3	39	48	.265	.321	.338	.660	84	181	19	6	1	2	6	*6/H
2016	26	LAA	AL	124	483	448	48	126	22	2	4	44	10	1	28	38	.281	.324	.366	.690	91	164	16	2	1	4	0	*6
2017	27	LAA	AL	158	647	589	77	164	38	2	14	69	19	6	47	67	.278	.331	.421	.752	102	248	20	3	0	8	0	*6	MVP-8,GG
2018	28	LAA	AL	146	600	554	68	162	26	5	11	75	10	2	35	44	.292	.337	.417	.754	108	231	17	5	1	5	2	*6/D	MVP-15,GG
2019	29	LAA	AL	103	424	398	47	105	19	0	7	40	10	2	24	37	.264	.309	.364	.673	77	145	21	2	0	0	1	6/DH
2020	30	LAA	AL	30	127	118	19	35	7	0	0	10	2	0	8	16	.297	.346	.356	.702	91	42	5	1	0	0	0	6
2021	31	MIN	AL	99	357	325	32	70	10	0	3	25	1	0	27	50	.215	.280	.274	.554	57	89	10	2	3	0	0	*6/H

[Mike Sixel]

He's been bad at hitting two of the last three years. This year? Worse than bad. He's below average in fwar three straight years now. I really hope he's not brought back. Gordon should be there the rest of this year.

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

He has never been a home run hitter but far from not being a good hitter.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2012	22	ATL	NL	49	182	166	17	48	8	2	3	19	1	0	12	21	.289	.335	.416	.751	101	69	5	1	0	3	1	6
2013	23	ATL	NL	157	658	606	76	150	27	6	17	59	6	5	40	55	.248	.296	.396	.692	90	240	16	3	5	4	1	*6/H	MVP-14,GG
2014	24	ATL	NL	146	576	540	44	132	18	4	7	46	4	5	32	60	.244	.286	.331	.617	75	179	25	0	2	2	4	*6/H	GG
2015	25	ATL	NL	147	583	535	60	142	23	2	4	44	5	3	39	48	.265	.321	.338	.660	84	181	19	6	1	2	6	*6/H
2016	26	LAA	AL	124	483	448	48	126	22	2	4	44	10	1	28	38	.281	.324	.366	.690	91	164	16	2	1	4	0	*6
2017	27	LAA	AL	158	647	589	77	164	38	2	14	69	19	6	47	67	.278	.331	.421	.752	102	248	20	3	0	8	0	*6	MVP-8,GG
2018	28	LAA	AL	146	600	554	68	162	26	5	11	75	10	2	35	44	.292	.337	.417	.754	108	231	17	5	1	5	2	*6/D	MVP-15,GG
2019	29	LAA	AL	103	424	398	47	105	19	0	7	40	10	2	24	37	.264	.309	.364	.673	77	145	21	2	0	0	1	6/DH
2020	30	LAA	AL	30	127	118	19	35	7	0	0	10	2	0	8	16	.297	.346	.356	.702	91	42	5	1	0	0	0	6
2021	31	MIN	AL	99	357	325	32	70	10	0	3	25	1	0	27	50	.215	.280	.274	.554	57	89	10	2	3	0	0	*6/H

Only twice in his career has his OPS been above average.  And only barely both times.

He has been demonstrably below average with the bat his entire career.  He's going to 32.  He isn't a hitting coach from being an asset.  He's more likely an even worse liability than he already is as age saps his defensive abilities.  

[RpR]

44 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Only twice in his career has his OPS been above average.  And only barely both times.

He has been demonstrably below average with the bat his entire career.  He's going to 32.  He isn't a hitting coach from being an asset.  He's more likely an even worse liability than he already is as age saps his defensive abilities.  

Hmm, .289, .281,. 278, .292, .297  yep it is a shame he had such low batting averages, wait batting averages mean nothing so all the hype about Arraez is poppy-cock, get real.