TD Top Twins Prospect Rankings (Post Draft and Trade Deadline): 1-5

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

5 hours ago, birdwatcher said:

...even though they maybe ended up not needing to, they easily could have been out of room to pull off the Enlow signing had they spent $7M instead of $6M by taking Gore, McKay, or Greene. None of those guys was exactly enamored with the prospect of being a Twin, and maybe their agents would have been encouraged to take a harder line, who knows.

I thought the rumor that year was that Greene wanted to go to Minnesota or San Diego but not Cincinnati.

But that could be that he wanted to go to San Diego for the organization and/or location (being from southern Cali) or Minnesota for the cachet of going 1-1, I suppose... so maybe the point remains that he would have taken full slot to sign.

[Brandon]

9 hours ago, Dman said:

He wanted to go to San Diego but Cincinatti took him any way and got him to sign on the dotted line.  So the Twins could have done the same but he was not going to offer a discount and they were coming off of a high school pitcher pick that didn't turn out in Stewart.  I can see why they were reluctant and went the safe route with a bat instead.  They could have gone with several other pitchers but it is telling that they went with a 5 tool talent instead.  They knew no other pitcher they picked could have the ceiling of Greene but had to hope Enlow would still end up a mid rotation piece and must have felt at the time Leech could be another Balazovich as well.  With Royce wisely willing to take a discount as he could have fallen to number 5 they must have felt more bites at the apple were better than putting all the apples in on Greene. 

Still time to see how things work out but Leech looks like a reliever if he can even make it.  Rooker looks incredibly flawed and teetering on the brink of not making it.  Enlow is having TJ and we have no idea how he will be once he returns and Lewis has had trouble staying healthy and his bat is suspect until he proves otherwise. So things don't look good right now.

Greene looks like the dominant pitcher he was always supposed to be but he isn't in the majors yet and he could still have arm problems in the future.  I don't see either side with an advantage yet but would have to give the edge to Cincinnati as of right now today. 

Remember Greene also missed time with Tommy John.  I see both Enlow and Lewis in the majors at some point.  How they compare with Greene remain to be seen.  McKay, Gore, Kyle Wright, none of these guys have established themselves yet.  losing 2020 was big for these guys as they are getting close.

 

[mk]

I’m worried that Duran’s write up reminded me of Fernando Romero.

[bird]

15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not the front office.... They need to be right. Not me. 

My argument is simple, the best players are at the top of the draft more often than not.... And they'll never sign an ace to a long term deal. Lewis could be bad, just as the pitchers could. I don't really get that part of the argument. I wanted Greene, and eventually chickened out and said Gore, yes. Gore looks like a bad choice right now..... So yes, I was likely wrong. I'd that somehow invalidates my opinion they should take elite pitching when the hitter and pitcher are ranked close, then I guess I'm just wrong. 

 

Position players are a safer bet than pitchers given similar perceived ceilings. This is due to the increased injury risk, of course, but also because the performance volatility, year to year, is higher for pitchers. Don't ignore the reality that frontline starters can be acquired via trade, and they can be developed. I don't know the statistics, but my specualation is we could look at two groups: the first being a random sample of 1st round pitchers, and second, a group of the top current pitchers of the same quantity. I'd bet that the number of failures among the draftees would be about the same as the number of successful pitchers in the second group selected in the 3rd round or later.

So, once again, we have a bunch of pitchers among our top ten prospects about which we're excited. (Note that none of them are 1st round draft choices). And once again, we'll probably see a higher failure or "disappointment" rate among the pitchers than the position players.

So yeah, Mike, I think there's merit in selecting the position player. You once suggested Gausman might be a better bet than Buxton, and despite the incredibly bad misfortune endured by Buxton, no one would make that trade, right?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, birdwatcher said:

Position players are a safer bet than pitchers given similar perceived ceilings. This is due to the increased injury risk, of course, but also because the performance volatility, year to year, is higher for pitchers. Don't ignore the reality that frontline starters can be acquired via trade, and they can be developed. I don't know the statistics, but my specualation is we could look at two groups: the first being a random sample of 1st round pitchers, and second, a group of the top current pitchers of the same quantity. I'd bet that the number of failures among the draftees would be about the same as the number of successful pitchers in the second group selected in the 3rd round or later.

So, once again, we have a bunch of pitchers among our top ten prospects about which we're excited. (Note that none of them are 1st round draft choices). And once again, we'll probably see a higher failure or "disappointment" rate among the pitchers than the position players.

So yeah, Mike, I think there's merit in selecting the position player. You once suggested Gausman might be a better bet than Buxton, and despite the incredibly bad misfortune endured by Buxton, no one would make that trade, right?

Good God. So I'm wrong, so all my thoughts are wrong? Then the front office is always wrong? Tedious. And a logical fallacy. 

People keep saying the Twins can trade for an ace..... Have they? Has any mid market team? How many have been traded at all, that had more than a year of control? 

[jkcarew]

No way do I have Lewis #1 at this point. His bat is a huge question mark, unless you consider 95 AFL PA…two years and an ACL ago…his arrival. Keep in mind that if he isn’t a major league shortstop ( very much debated by scouts), the threshold for the bat goes up significantly. For instance, who is a better 3rd base prospect right now…Miranda or Lewis? Who’s the better CF prospect…Martin or Lewis?

I still believe in the upside, but for me way too much has happened in the last two years…and two weeks…for Lewis to be #1.

Also, Jermaine Palacios has earned a spot in the top 30…perhaps in place of Javier.

These rankings are fun….keep them coming!