Seehafer: Let's chat about the MiLB and Twins again!

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Submit your Q's and I'll submit A's.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, I'll bite. Who, if any, do you see having the biggest impact as pitcher in Minnesota for the remainder of the season?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Okay, I'll bite. Who, if any, do you see having the biggest impact as pitcher in Minnesota for the remainder of the season?

If you would've asked me this a week ago, I probably would have said Josh Winder, but I think something we're starting to see now is that the minor league guys are starting to really feel the effects of not pitching in games last year. I'm not as convinced that we'll see the Winders, Balazovics, etc. up with the Twins as I was even two weeks ago. Maybe we see Joe Ryan and/or Drew Strotman get a brief look. Honestly, I think the best bets to get extended looks are Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak. Not a fun answer, but the more realistic, imo.

[ashbury]

Which of the prospects who will be Rule-5 eligible this off-season would bring back the most in trade?

[twinkiesfan11]

Will we see any of the 2021 draftees debuting soon? Any word on Marco Raya?

[Parker Hageman]

Who is the most impressive talent you’ve seen with the Saints?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Just now, ashbury said:

Which of the prospects who will be Rule-5 eligible this off-season would bring back the most in trade?

By definition, if a prospect is Rule-5 eligible, the team has determined that they don't necessarily have much of a future on the team. If a prospect is Rule-5 eligible, it basically tanks their value because why would a team trade for them when they could just draft him or someone they think is equally talented. Now if the question is "What under the radar Twins prospect would fetch the most in return?" I'd probably say someone like Trey Cabbage. He hits dingers and has shown a more refined approach at the plate. Still strikes out a ton, but his overall numbers didn't drop at all with a promotion to Double-A. 

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

5 minutes ago, twinkiesfan11 said:

Will we see any of the 2021 draftees debuting soon? Any word on Marco Raya?

I doubt we see any of the pitchers take the mound this summer, particularly the college guys. I'd think some of the bats will get work at the FCL and Fall League. As for Raya, I don't have any info.

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

10 minutes ago, Parker Hageman said:

Who is the most impressive talent you’ve seen with the Saints?

Without a doubt Jose Miranda. He's been so fun to watch. He's not flashy, but he's smooth in the field and a killer at the plate. As far as raw impressiveness, though, watching Jhoan Duran in his first start off the IL was incredibly fun. Pumping a legit 100 mph and making batters look foolish. If only he could have stayed healthy...

[Steve Lein]

Excluding Jose Miranda, as he's the obvious answer to this question as he's risen the most on my own list by far, who has helped their prospect stock the most for you this season? And in the opposite form, who has fallen the most?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

4 minutes ago, Steve Lein said:

Excluding Jose Miranda, as he's the obvious answer to this question as he's risen the most on my own list by far, who has helped their prospect stock the most for you this season? And in the opposite form, who has fallen the most?

I think the biggest faller is probably Aaron Sabato, though others such as Misael Urbina are right there as well. My justification is basically that the track record for athletes who have struggled as much offensively as they have at Low-A isn't great. You won't see many people who put up similar numbers reach the majors and if they do, they're short-career bit players.

As far as the biggest riser, I really like the seasons that Louie Varland and Jermaine Palacios have put together. I think they've both performed much better than was expected of them. Also a bunch of the bullpen arms at Double-A like Jordan Gore have gone from no-namers to potential bullpen arms. However, I think one name to keep an eye on as the season progresses is Yunior Severino. Right now, he's tearing up High-A after performing decently at Low-A. It's easy to forget that he's only 21 and has a somewhat rocky start to his minor league career. He may never live up to the hype surrounding him when he signed, but I think things are starting to click for him.

[MN_ExPat]

How many more starts/innings do you see Ober and Jax having the rest of the season (I.E. will the Twins cut short their innings to help keep them rested)?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

1 minute ago, MN_ExPat said:

How many more starts/innings do you see Ober and Jax having the rest of the season (I.E. will the Twins cut short their innings to help keep them rested)?

I do think that the Twins will try to keep their workload relatively light. Basically, I don't think they'll often be extended beyond 5 or 6 innings and I could see them being skipped every now and then to give Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe a turn.

[Dman]

What future do you see for Sean Mooney?  Is a reliever only or is he starter material.

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

What future do you see for Sean Mooney?  Is a reliever only or is he starter material.

Unfortunately, Low-A games are incredibly difficult to watch because they generally aren't streamed by MiLB.tv, so I haven't gotten to see much of him beyond his stats. That said, his strikeout and walk numbers are encouraging. Despite getting 7 starts to date, he's only thrown 21 1/3 innings. The Mighty Mussels don't really use traditional starters, focusing more on volume of pitchers rather than going for distance into the game. He's also 23. So, basically, this is a long winded way of saying that he's probably a bullpen guy in the long run, but I'll be interested to watch him more once he reaches High-A.

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

By definition, if a prospect is Rule-5 eligible, the team has determined that they don't necessarily have much of a future on the team. If a prospect is Rule-5 eligible, it basically tanks their value because why would a team trade for them when they could just draft him or someone they think is equally talented. Now if the question is "What under the radar Twins prospect would fetch the most in return?" I'd probably say someone like Trey Cabbage. He hits dingers and has shown a more refined approach at the plate. Still strikes out a ton, but his overall numbers didn't drop at all with a promotion to Double-A. 

Except if Cabbage isn't added to the 40-man roster before the World Series ends, he becomes a free agent. 

[wsnydes]

1 hour ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

If you would've asked me this a week ago, I probably would have said Josh Winder, but I think something we're starting to see now is that the minor league guys are starting to really feel the effects of not pitching in games last year. I'm not as convinced that we'll see the Winders, Balazovics, etc. up with the Twins as I was even two weeks ago. Maybe we see Joe Ryan and/or Drew Strotman get a brief look. Honestly, I think the best bets to get extended looks are Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak. Not a fun answer, but the more realistic, imo.

Interesting, yet not unexpected.  In your mind, does this explain why we're not seeing many bullpen arms being cycled through as we may have otherwise seen too?  At least to some degree anyway?

[Seth Stohs]

27 minutes ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

Unfortunately, Low-A games are incredibly difficult to watch because they generally aren't streamed by MiLB.tv, so I haven't gotten to see much of him beyond his stats. That said, his strikeout and walk numbers are encouraging. Despite getting 7 starts to date, he's only thrown 21 1/3 innings. The Mighty Mussels don't really use traditional starters, focusing more on volume of pitchers rather than going for distance into the game. He's also 23. So, basically, this is a long winded way of saying that he's probably a bullpen guy in the long run, but I'll be interested to watch him more once he reaches High-A.

Mooney is coming back from Tommy John, so we definitely don't want to make too much out of his innings and such. He profiles as a starter, but I would also say he's pretty similar prospect-wise to Cody Stashak, so like most minor league starters, they become relievers... if they get up there. 

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

6 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

Interesting, yet not unexpected.  In your mind, does this explain why we're not seeing many bullpen arms being cycled through as we may have otherwise seen too?  At least to some degree anyway?

To a degree, I'm sure it is. I also think that the Twins being comfortably out of contention has impacted this as well. Maybe if the team was doing better, they'd be more willing to call on Jovani Moran and Ian Hamilton rather than Juan Minaya, Beau Burrows, etc. But at this point, there isn't a ton of reason to bring them up right now. I think they will before the season concludes, but why not let them get more seasoning in Triple-A then try them for a couple weeks in September before handing them the reigns next spring.

[mike8791]

Lucas, great format.  You should do it more often!  In one of your recent prospect blogs, I commented on what seemed to me a dearth of prospects in the system who looked like legitimate major league SSs.  The list of mid infield prospects who seem unable to fill this position defensively is a long one:  Gordon, Polanco, Arraez, Lewis, Martin, and Miranda.  Your reply to my question was perhaps Miller, who was our #2 draft choice this year and has yet to play one game professionally yet.  That's a pretty strong indictment of a mid-market team, unable (or unwilling) to sign a quality FA SS, that  seems to have no one currently in the system ready to fill Simmons position.  Is this an accurate portrayal of all our minor league SSs?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

7 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Lucas, great format.  You should do it more often!  In one of your recent prospect blogs, I commented on what seemed to me a dearth of prospects in the system who looked like legitimate major league SSs.  The list of mid infield prospects who seem unable to fill this position defensively is a long one:  Gordon, Polanco, Arraez, Lewis, Martin, and Miranda.  Your reply to my question was perhaps Miller, who was our #2 draft choice this year and has yet to play one game professionally yet.  That's a pretty strong indictment of a mid-market team, unable (or unwilling) to sign a quality FA SS, that  seems to have no one currently in the system ready to fill Simmons position.  Is this an accurate portrayal of all our minor league SSs?

Thanks! As of right now, my plan is to do this every Wednesday, at least until the season ends. 

I'm going to hedge a bit and say that your portrayal is both accurate and inaccurate. I think it's accurate in the sense that the lack of depth at SS in the system is something that the front office can be mildly criticized for. However, I think it's also inaccurate because "pure" shortstops are exceedingly rare, especially ones that can hit. It's why the Lindor's, Baez's, Story's, Franco's, etc. are so highly sought after once they reach the majors. Frankly, it's easier to go get one on the open market than it is to find one in high school/college and develop them. If your team develops one shortstop who is above average in the field and at the plate, well, that's an All-Star caliber talent and ideally you only need one of those every 7-10 years. 

That said, I do think it would be wise for the Twins to look heavily at shortstop during the draft next year. They like to take toolsy high schoolers with good hit tools and college boppers. They'll have a selection around pick 5 or so. They should be in position to grab a guy that could develop into a full-time SS. If they can't, they may try to continue to fish around in the FA market or hope that Lewis can stick there.

[ashbury]

7 minutes ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

They'll have a selection around pick 5 or so.

If they screw it up and finish strong, they could be down around #11.

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Simeon Woods Richardson has been activated by the Wind Surge. Will be fun to see him pitch again soon.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Even if the narrative of "The Twins don't push their prospects" is not always true and somewhat overblown, It seems likely that Toronto's sending Martin and Woods Richardson to AA to start this season is a more aggressive assignment than the Twins would have made. Is there a chance of any conflict between the Jays' and Twins' development plans for those players, before and after the trade?

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

4 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Even if the narrative of "The Twins don't push their prospects" is not always true and somewhat overblown, It seems likely that Toronto's sending Martin and Woods Richardson to AA to start this season is a more aggressive assignment than the Twins would have made. Is there a chance of any conflict between the Jays' and Twins' development plans for those players, before and after the trade?

I suppose there is always a chance, but Martin is more than holding his own at Double-A at the moment. I think Woods Richardson will only get set down to High-A if he really struggles. I think there's an argument to be made that he's currently better suited for High-A. BUT, he crush Double-A competition during his first 6 starts. His last 5 were rough as he struggled with command, which was not something that was an issue before.

[beckmt]

Do you think Minaya has a chance of sticking here?  

Given the number of starter prospects at AA and AAA, do you see the Twins as adding another mid or lower range starter this winter?  Would be great if Twins would add a #1 or #2 type, just don't see that happening.

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

2 minutes ago, beckmt said:

Do you think Minaya has a chance of sticking here?  

Given the number of starter prospects at AA and AAA, do you see the Twins as adding another mid or lower range starter this winter?  Would be great if Twins would add a #1 or #2 type, just don't see that happening.

I don't think so. If Minaya is back, that means the Twins really struck out on free agents and don't think their arms in the minors are ready, neither of which I foresee. 

I could see the Twins being very aggressive in the starting pitcher trade market, especially since they have the prospect capital now. The best way to develop two or three minor league starters into major league starters is to start with 10 minor league starters. They have that now. Some will be traded, some will move to the bullpen. I don't think any of them possess the level of talent that would preclude the Twins from trying to add more talent this offseason. And if this season is any indication, you can never have too many starting pitchers (or pitchers in general).

[MN_ExPat]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

If they screw it up and finish strong, they could be down around #11.

[Rosterman]

So, when do the draft picks see some action, and who might start with the Mussells over just FCL games. And, will there be a Twins Instructional League this Fall.

 

Plus, will there be Fall baseball leagues and who are the best bets for the Twins to send?

[Otwins]

Is Joe Ryan at Triple AAA? Do you expect him to get a look in September?