In Defense of the Twins Front Office

[USAFChief]

41 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Quoting you before hindsight tainted your view. Giddy up.

ouch. 

[bean5302]

Where's that dead horse???? I just found my spare baseball bat!

 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

No reason?

They have one major league starter on the roster. One. They're going to need a lot more than "better health and some good breaks."

I don't see it. Hope to be wrong. 

I have made the same point over the last few weeks.  However, this team is quickly starting to look different.  I would not make any predictions until the end of the season.  It's way to soon to believe with any certainty that Ober and Jax are part of the solution but with what we are witnessing you have to start believing a little.  Ryan, Balazovic and Winder are also all on the cusp.  Then, how about Minaya and Gant.  Same story as Ober and Jax but man they look pretty darn good.  We have a few other guys to audition too.

Now, if Buxton and Kirilloff can stay healthy with  Polanco, Donaldson and Garver, that's a good core offensive group.  Pretty good odds Larnach comes around too.  Sure, lots unanswered right now but let's wait and see what happens the rest of the way this year before we get too down on 2022.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Quoting you before hindsight tainted your view. Giddy up.

Oof... well done, Vanimal. It looks like Leviathan was on the mark in that thread. Talk about counting chickens before the eggs have hatched!

[Vanimal46]

55 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Ha, good find. Can't help but notice you didn't quote the preceding graph: "So, although the Twins are coming off one of the worst seasons ever in terms of run prevention, there is plenty of reason to expect much better things in the near future, particularly if the new baseball ops leaders are able to bolster the developmental process."

I'd say the fact that basically all those young arms that I – and the previous front office – believed in at the time failed to pan in any way, but the Twins improved tremendously at run prevention in the following years anyway, is more of a point in favor of my argument here than against it. No?

I’m not the one trashing the 2016 prospects. That’s you. Why do you think the new prospects acquired are going to be different? I can guarantee right now the Future Will be Bright article will be written this winter about the current set of prospects. Almost likely by you! Giddy up! Version 2.0. 

[TheLeviathan]

27 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Oof... well done, Vanimal. It looks like Leviathan was on the mark in that thread. Talk about counting chickens before the eggs have hatched!

Well, that generally goes without saying.

[TheLeviathan]

Quick thoughts:

*It's not fair to dismiss the turnaround they pulled off with this club two years ago.  What they did remaking that team from a pretty uneasy future to instant success is a feather in their cap.  

*It's also not fair to overlook just how badly they mangled the moves on the pitching side coming into this year.  Every single choice they made flopped.

*It's also worth noting, excuse or not, that the pandemic hit this team's gameplan pretty hard.  I'm sure it hurt all the teams, but it definitely hurt the Twins on the pitching side significantly.  That should be part of the evaluation here too.

*2022 had a poor path to contention since about May 1st and got substantially worse as every major pitching prospect went down for lengthy time periods and stunted their development.  Trades or not, let's not pretend one dude somehow is the magic elixir between 2022 Twins as champs or not, that's being naive.  This team was always going to need to do significant retooling to their pitching to fix it for next year.  Impossible?  No.  Unlikely?  Yeah.  We just went from 20 to 1 to 25 to 1 or some rough equivalent.  Some of you are spinning the Berrios trade as giving away Babe Ruth or breaking up the '27 Yankees all in one trade.

*I need to see where we are in August of 2022, at that point I'd feel better about evaluating them.  I'd hate to cut ties as their moves show fruit and I think that's a fair timeline to harvest.

[KirbyDome89]

14 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

The idea they can't contend next year is not only an overreaction to this season but an overreaction to the unbelievably disastrous first 6 weeks of this season. The Twins went 14-28 in their first 42 games and are since 34-37. With all that's continued to go wrong, they've basically been a .500 team over the span of 3 months. That's almost entirely without Byron Buxton who was the most valuable player in baseball before he got hurt.

It's not nearly as inconceivable as you're making it out to be.

So they'd be 20ish games behind the Sox instead of 30ish at seasons end? They're 3 games under .500 in that stretch with Berrios starting for nearly the entirety of it; I don't see how that's cause for relief. Some better health and good breaks? The FO needs to get markedly better overnight at identifying FA arms or swing some massive trade(s) to fill out 4 rotation spots and half a bullpen but it's an overreaction to think the Twins aren't going to compete for the division in '22? Talk about exaggerating... 

Buxton not missing half a season helps but I haven't heard anybody arguing that this team isn't capable of scoring runs, and even his defense couldn't save this train wreck of a staff.

[Brandon]

This season has been a perfect storm of bad luck. Most of it was pitching.  The offense has been pretty good. Only some injuries and a lack of a Buxton extension is really all we can complain about here....msybe Simmons offense.  The defense has been ok but should have been better.  But the real issue has been the implosion of our pitching staff.  Maeda went backwards, Happy was horrible, Shoemaker was the worst. And Dobnak was hurt.  Colone blew so many saves with giving up so many unearned runs.  Then to make matters worse our pitching depth was worse with all the injuries.  That was our issue this year.  Also missing 

[TwinsChupacabra]

I read most of the comments on this article.  I am really choking on the praise of Terry Ryan.  People really forgot how awful he was.  I think it is similar to the fact that terrible ex-presidents have their approval ratings go up over time.

Those interviews of him on the radio made me sick.  His over-the-top arrogance was really sickening.  It was like, "how dare you challenge anything I say?"  He thought of himself as some baseball god.  Like I said, over time, people forget.

As far as the current  front office is concerned, they'd get poor grades from free agent signings, roster management, pitching development, and more.  But their worst sin is the hiring of Rocco.  The readers won't agree with me but I'm telling you, you will in another year or two.  Instead of making excuses for him, they will see what I, my family and friends have seen for a while now.  He is clueless and the worst manager we've had since Ray Miller.     

 

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So they'd be 20ish games behind the Sox instead of 30ish at seasons end? They're 3 games under .500 in that stretch with Berrios starting for nearly the entirety of it; I don't see how that's cause for relief. Some better health and good breaks? The FO needs to get markedly better overnight at identifying FA arms or swing some massive trade(s) to fill out 4 rotation spots and half a bullpen but it's an overreaction to think the Twins aren't going to compete for the division in '22? Talk about exaggerating... 

Buxton not missing half a season helps but I haven't heard anybody arguing that this team isn't capable of scoring runs, and even his defense couldn't save this train wreck of a staff.

Once again, I am going to ask what decisions they could have made that would have been better.  Which FAs or players that were traded would have put this team anywhere near contention?  It's really easy to point to a theoretical solution.  You can get away with that on the internet.  Just avoid the questions that disprove the theory.  Pounding this type of poorly conceived drum in the real world does not go over well.   

[mikelink45]

22 hours ago, prouster said:

I agree in general. That said, I was on the Joe Musgrove train and felt pretty disappointed when he went to San Diego. I'm not sure if the Twins ever checked in on him, but he would have been a terrific addition. I'm hoping they do a lot more on the trade market this coming off-season. John Means in Baltimore would be a good trade candidate. I also think they should consider Glasnow, who is going to miss next season (or at least most of it) recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Rays might be willing to part with him in order to avoid paying him during a year of rehab.

 

In any case, I think Nick gives a fair assessment of the situation in the article. While a pitching development program was a huge selling point for Falvey, I don't think we can wave away the botched free agent signings. That's part of his job, too. But overall I think he and Levine have done a good job, at least as good as any alternative would do. Except for Andrew Friedman, and, well, I don't think we'll be prying him away from the Dodgers any time soon.

You forget Harris of the Giants, Cashman - Yankees, Preller - San Diego, Tampa Bay, and a number of other good front offices in your comparison. 

[sjunisu]

10 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

You recall the state of their pitching staff in 2016, right?? Who other than Erv looked like a major-league starter on that roster? We've already gone over what the pitching pipeline looked like at that point.

The idea they can't contend next year is not only an overreaction to this season but an overreaction to the unbelievably disastrous first 6 weeks of this season. The Twins went 14-28 in their first 42 games and are since 34-37. With all that's continued to go wrong, they've basically been a .500 team over the span of 3 months. That's almost entirely without Byron Buxton who was the most valuable player in baseball before he got hurt.

It's not nearly as inconceivable as you're making it out to be.

34-37 with the Boomstick leading the heart of the order and Jose leading the rotation.  Unfortunately neither of those players are with the team any longer.  Now if you are saying the Twins will 1) Sign a starter comparable to Berrios, 2) Sign another starter comparable to Berrios to augment the staff (as with Berrios achoring it was a 34-37 staff), and 3) sign a big time hitter to replace Cruz, then maybe I can see some hope.  But history tells me 1 and 2 won't happen and maybe 3 will, but it is by no means certain.

[gunnarthor]

12 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The fact that they were successful in the first decade of the 2000s is not being debated and also not really relevant. The game passed that front office by. During the entirety of Ryan's second tenure the Twins ranked near the bottom of the league – if not at the bottom – in K-rate every single year, without exception. You can't win like that, period. There was no sign it was going to change under that regime. 

 

2012 Twins pitching WAR - .7
2013 Twins pitching WAR - 7.8
2014 Twins pitching WAR - 10.1
2015 Twins pitching WAR - 16.3
2016 Twins pitching WAR - 3.9

2017 Twins pitching WAR - 9.1
2018 Twins pitching WAR - 8
2019 Twins pitching WAR - 12.9

2021 Twins pitching WAR - -(!)3.2 WAR

A few more years, maybe they can have a staff as good as the 2015 staff.

 

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Once again, I am going to ask what decisions they could have made that would have been better.

Friendly request: Can we not expect any fan of a team (we all likely have careers, modest paychecks, family, other obligations) to do the work of a FO staff of a team? It's not the fan's job to be better than the people who are paid tremendous salaries to do this work. It's the fan's job to hold that staff to very high expectations, and to raise the heat when the decisions by the paid professionals don't lead to good outcomes. Fair or not, results are the standard of success - not the quantity or quality of excuses.

[prouster]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

You forget Harris of the Giants, Cashman - Yankees, Preller - San Diego, Tampa Bay, and a number of other good front offices in your comparison. 

Disagree. Preller started his tenure with a lot of splashy moves that blew up in his face, including a couple awful contracts that he can’t get rid of. Lately a longer plan has started to bear fruit—something many on this website don’t want to see happen with Falvey. Cashman has unlimited resources and can’t put together a decent pitching staff. No one expected SF to compete this year (kinda like the Twins in 2017). You got me with Tampa. Their strategy is the exact one some people here have been complaining about with the Berrios trade. They get rid of guys before they’re expensive and depend on pre-arb players to step up. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

Friendly request: Can we not expect any fan of a team (we all likely have careers, modest paychecks, family, other obligations) to do the work of a FO staff of a team? It's not the fan's job to be better than the people who are paid tremendous salaries to do this work. It's the fan's job to hold that staff to very high expectations, and to raise the heat when the decisions by the paid professionals don't lead to good outcomes. Fair or not, results are the standard of success - not the quantity or quality of excuses.

This is very reasonable unless you are insisting the FO is incompetent and/or suggesting they should be terminated.  Someone with the skillset to render an opinion about executive competence would never go down this path without having an understanding of the options that were present.  Therefore, a much more reasonable position is to discuss the options that were present instead of calling for terminations.

I would add that many of the people here spend a great deal of time following baseball and know exactly what the options were or could look them up in a couple minutes.  I have no problem if someone has no desire to take the time to be informed.  Just don't go calling for terminations if you are not willing to put forth a modest effort to be informed.  

[DocSavage]

5 year no aces... they are a busted pair... and Molitor isn't being given credit for taking the under talented team provided to the post season and on the run to the post season with zero midseason help from the Dynamic Duo... fired they should be... after 5 years the have produced this season..  this was expressed in the article "

By firing Paul Molitor, the Twins got rid of a problem they didn’t have

From this day forward, the garbage scow commonly known as the Minnesota Twins belongs to Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. "   https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2018/10/by-firing-paul-molitor-the-twins-got-rid-of-a-problem-they-didnt-have/

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This is very reasonable unless you are insisting the FO is incompetent and/or suggesting they should be terminated.  Someone with the skillset to render an opinion about executive competence would never go down this path without having an understanding of the options that were present.  Therefore, a much more reasonable position is to discuss the options that were present instead of calling for terminations.

I would add that many of the people here spend a great deal of time following baseball and know exactly what the options were or could look them up in a couple minutes.  I have no problem if someone has no desire to take the time to be informed.  Just don't go calling for terminations if you are not willing to put forth a modest effort to be informed.  

I was going to leave this alone, but no, really, I like seeing people pour an hour into a thoughtful write up explaining how the Twins could have traded for pitcher X and signed pitcher Y along with making various other moves and signings only to have you exclaim "Impossible! No pitcher will sign with Minnesota! Impossible! The Twins are a small market team and can't afford a budget greater than the old school 90s Taco Bell value menu $0.59, $0.79, $0.99! Impossible! No teams will trade for Minnesota prospects! Impossible! No team in baseball saw player Z's break out!"

It's a waste of time to try and debate you.

[Greglw3]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Rosario was traded for nothing this year. He's just not that good. They took over a terrible team, and made it a 100 win team.....

We have to agree to disagree on Rosario.

The FO then dismantled that 100 win team to what we have now.

All I want is for the Twins to get back to that open window whether it’s Falvine and Rocco or someone else. I think Jim Pohlad will give them a pass for this year so I look to this intriguing batch of prospects and hopefully a really solid pitching acquisition through FA. I’ve always stuck with the Twins through every up and down for decades now. They’ve been the joy of my life even if a lot of hard times! The two WS teams were fun. There’s been enough success along the way to balance out the heartbreaks.

[Greglw3]

10 minutes ago, DocSavage said:

5 year no aces... they are a busted pair... and Molitor isn't being given credit for taking the under talented team provided to the post season and on the run to the post season with zero midseason help from the Dynamic Duo... fired they should be... after 5 years the have produced this season..  this was expressed in the article "

By firing Paul Molitor, the Twins got rid of a problem they didn’t have

From this day forward, the garbage scow commonly known as the Minnesota Twins belongs to Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. "   https://www.minnpost.com/sports/2018/10/by-firing-paul-molitor-the-twins-got-rid-of-a-problem-they-didnt-have/

I agree 1000%. Molitor was a very good manager. Much better than Baldelli. He was aggressive with the bullpen and showed a burning passion to win. Molitir is an all time baseball treasure with tremendous knowledge of how to win baseball games and how to succeed. While he’s in the Hall of Fame, he’s not just a Hall of Famers but he’s an ELITE Hall of Famers. I thought firing him was a huge mistake and still do.

[LastOnePicked]

47 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would add that many of the people here spend a great deal of time following baseball and know exactly what the options were or could look them up in a couple minutes.

Fair points overall, but a big "no" to this. FO staff receive detailed scouting reports, reports on health and physical conditioning - and with regard to trades they field offers from other teams' FO staff that we never hear about. We fans have access to a lot of data, but not the crucial data to make these franchise-altering decisions. 

If the stated goal from a FO is to develop top-tier starting pitching or to contend for the World Series title and these things don't happen within a reasonable timeframe, it makes all the sense in the world that fans would call for change. It's not our job as fans to do better work for them, or to find the owner a new FO staff.

Maybe all we're just arguing here is whether or not it's been a reasonable timeframe yet. Some folks don't think so. Some do. And that's fine - viva la difference.

[Danchat]

50 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I agree 1000%. Molitor was a very good manager. Much better than Baldelli. He was aggressive with the bullpen and showed a burning passion to win. Molitir is an all time baseball treasure with tremendous knowledge of how to win baseball games and how to succeed. While he’s in the Hall of Fame, he’s not just a Hall of Famers but he’s an ELITE Hall of Famers. I thought firing him was a huge mistake and still do.

I think Molitor was OK as a manager... yeah he was a great player, but the team played considerably better after his firing and he hasn’t garnered a single interview for a manager role with another team. His bullpen usage was brutal at times - I know Rocco isn’t good at that either, but that doesn’t excuse Paul. 
 

He was also the manager of the total system failure team (that had some expectations, since 2015 went well). Personally I don’t believe managers make a big impact on W/Ls, but I don’t see what gave Paul a leg up on other managers.

[Major League Ready]

30 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Fair points overall, but a big "no" to this. FO staff receive detailed scouting reports, reports on health and physical conditioning - and with regard to trades they field offers from other teams' FO staff that we never hear about. We fans have access to a lot of data, but not the crucial data to make these franchise-altering decisions. 

If the stated goal from a FO is to develop top-tier starting pitching or to contend for the World Series title and these things don't happen within a reasonable timeframe, it makes all the sense in the world that fans would call for change. It's not our job as fans to do better work for them, or to find the owner a new FO staff.

Maybe all we're just arguing here is whether or not it's been a reasonable timeframe yet. Some folks don't think so. Some do. And that's fine - viva la difference.

Not even remotely my point.  There is no suggestion here that fans "do the work for them".  The point is certainly not that fans have information and make the same mistakes.  The point is that better selections did not exist and many here are more than adequately informed to know the options, including the options they endorsed that did not work out  To call for better decisions when you should know they did not exist is absurd.    

Those who are calling for terminations are essentially saying .... I know there were no realistic options that would have been better but you should have found something that did not exist.  If your employer had the same expectations, I am betting your would have some choice words to describe said employer.

[h2oface]

20 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Even now the offense is fine. They have no pitching at all. 

The offense is fine? Have you seen the batting averages of the lineups these days. Low .200s or less except for a couple players..... It certainly isn't "fine", and could be a ton better, especially if they are to compete for the playoffs.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, h2oface said:

The offense is fine? Have you seen the batting averages of the lineups these days. Low .200s or less except for a couple players..... It certainly isn't "fine", and could be a ton better, especially if they are to compete for the playoffs.

Twins are 11th in runs scored, without Buxton.....I don't think people realize how far BAs have fallen this year.

11th isn't great, but it is fine, at least fine. 

[Mike Sixel]

They are 12th in batting average, btw.....

They are getting KILLED by their "defense" and pitching.....

[KirbyDome89]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Once again, I am going to ask what decisions they could have made that would have been better.  Which FAs or players that were traded would have put this team anywhere near contention?  It's really easy to point to a theoretical solution.  You can get away with that on the internet.  Just avoid the questions that disprove the theory.  Pounding this type of poorly conceived drum in the real world does not go over well.   

If you're insistent on framing this argument only within the last offseason we'll disagree on scope. If you're willing to cede that FO decisions this season were in fact not made in a vacuum but you feel as though Shoemaker and Happ making up 40% of a rotation that was expected to compete for a WS was prudent, again, we'll disagree.

You're not "disproving," something by failing to argue in good faith. Posters are simply choosing not to engage in an endless back forth where "rules for thee not for me," (proposed trades, signings, ect  shot down by your own hypothetical outcomes) is the standard and criticism of the FO's lack of pitching continuity 5 years in is equated to being a keyboard warrior. 

[ashbury]

44 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Twins are 11th in runs scored, without Buxton.....I don't think people realize how far BAs have fallen this year.

11th isn't great, but it is fine, at least fine. 

We're getting hung up on a fuzzy term, 'fine'.  MLB average R/G is 4.49, AL average is a tick higher at 4.55, and the Twins have 4.60.  Top teams are above 5.00. Well above.

If 'fine' is meant to suggest a .500 record is the goal, then sure the offense is fine and the defense/pitching is what's dragging us down below that humble benchmark.

But for me the aim is pennant contention and hopefully being able to go deep in the post-season and maybe even win it all.  The offense is not 'fine' by that kind of standard. 

There is NO phase of the game right now that is satisfactory toward what the FO has stated to be their goal, sustainable success.

[ashbury]

“The goal here is straightforward and measurable,” Falvey said. “It’s to build a sustainable and championship-caliber team and organization that Twins fans across Twins Territory will be proud of. "