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In Defense of the Twins Front Office


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8 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

 

Plus, they also exposed their breakout 2021 Minor League Player of the Year, Jose Miranda to the Rule 5 draft. Ugh.

 

And not one single team thought the Twins were wrong!  It just shows how difficult it is to forecast the development of these players.  Johan Santana was a rule 5 and Tatis Jr. was traded for James Shields and Shields was quite bad.  

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I agree with the general premise. I also agree with Brock. I'll be honest.... If Burrows is on this roster still, over at least three candidates in AAA, I don't like what they are doing at all. 

In five years, we still don't have one pitcher, starter or reliever, we are confident in. While there weren't great free agents this year, their inability to trade for or sign guys to longer deals, meant they had to, again, get two new starting pitchers. That's not a sustainable model. 

Next year is the year they are out of excuses. If there aren't multiple pitchers up from the system after six years......

Also, their emphasis on bat first, mediocre or worse fielders in the draft? Not a fan at all. 

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13 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I wish I could, but I just can't. They somehow had room for Jake Cave and others on the roster. Baddoo hit .390 in Spring Training. He was clearly ready to go, and any series of offseason workouts/assessments could have told them so. He was the third player drafted in Rule 5. In other words, other teams knew what we didn't know. That's just .... very bad.

The Tigers and Twins were in much different situations leading into this season.  The Twins were expected to contend and the Tigers...not so much.  A contending team can't stash away a guy in Baddoo's position and need established major league players.  The Tigers could afford to take that risk.  This one just worked in Detroit's favor.

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2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

And not one single team thought the Twins were wrong!

Yes, but I have to repeat an earlier comment - no other MLB team had better access to assess and evaluate Miranda as a player than the Twins. The Twins somehow believed he wasn't ready, and were fine with exposing him. 

I understand that these decisions are probably very challenging. But I'm getting weary of the idea that all of this happens just by being "unlucky." The best Front Offices find a way to maximize returns consistently. I'd rather be looking for the best than hoping these guys will get better.

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35 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I can give them a pass on Baddoo, as I suspect leaving him unprotected was a calculated risk that backfired. Having not played in a couple of years and being a Rule V candidate that needs to stay on the MLB roster, I completely understand why the front office would take the risk that no one would draft him and if someone did, the Twins would receive Baddoo back in short order.

Trading Wade was probably the right decision but... wow... to dump Anderson so quickly while Wade was thriving requires a series of bad evaluation and mis-management that deserves loads of ridicule.

Will second Brock's comments about Baddoo.  Yes, it was a risk to leave him unprotected as it would have been for anyone he replaced if added to the 40-man.  I just went back to see who they added last November, prior to the Rule 5 draft.  It was Ben Rortvedt, Baily Ober and Jordan Balazovic.  Considering Baddoo hadn't played in what, most of two years and was coming off an injury I doubt anyone would have preferred that he should replace any of the three added.  Maybe there was someone else on the roster that he could replace, but I expect they doubted he would be selected.  

There were several former coaches/manager who had been working in the Detroit system, so I suspect there was some familiarity with Baddoo.  Perhaps there was someone there who really liked him and encouraged the pick.  Second, I checked yesterday when looking at box scores and saw he is hitting .260 something.  Very good, but I suspect his average and OPS versus the Twins is much higher than the rest of the league.  So the kid is hitting it out of the park against the team who let him go.  Makes the loss of him seem so much worse when he beats us over the head with it every time we play them.  

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3 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

A contending team can't stash away a guy in Baddoo's position and need established major league players.

That's probably conventional wisdom, yes. But what is Baddoo's actual "position" this year? Who appears more capable of contributing to a MLB team - Baddoo or Cave? I want the FO to be able to make those kinds of assessments with accuracy - not just to rely on general conventional wisdom.

I fully realize I'm being additionally tough on the FO here. But like all of you, I love this team, and I want to see them at their best with the most effective talent assessment possible. That's the only way we can build a winner here. And winning a championship is fun - I'm old enough to have seen two of them.

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4 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

That's probably conventional wisdom, yes. But what is Baddoo's actual "position" this year? Who appears more capable of contributing to a MLB team - Baddoo or Cave? I want the FO to be able to make those kinds of assessments with accuracy - not just to rely on general conventional wisdom.

I fully realize I'm being additionally tough on the FO here. But like all of you, I love this team, and I want to see them at their best with the most effective talent assessment possible. That's the only way we can build a winner here. And winning a championship is fun - I'm old enough to have seen two of them.

You expect a contending team to count on a guy that hasn't played in two years, not even at a high level to play for them? The mistake is Cave over Wade, not Badoo. Imo.

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4 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

That's probably conventional wisdom, yes. But what is Baddoo's actual "position" this year? Who appears more capable of contributing to a MLB team - Baddoo or Cave? I want the FO to be able to make those kinds of assessments with accuracy - not just to rely on general conventional wisdom.

I fully realize I'm being additionally tough on the FO here. But like all of you, I love this team, and I want to see them at their best with the most effective talent assessment possible. That's the only way we can build a winner here. And winning a championship is fun - I'm old enough to have seen two of them.

He's a guy that took advantage of the opportunity he was given.  There's no guarantee that he even would have cracked the active roster had he been kept.  

Conventional wisdom or not, it's wise roster management to keep a guy that you know can help you contend over a guy that hadn't played in two years and is basically a complete unknown.  That's a much different story than the situation Detroit was in.

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I am not seeing any improvement in Larnach. Not at the plate. Not on the field. Not running the bases. Not with his defense. Nothing.

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Thanks for this well thought out article. I've been an obnoxious Falvine Fanboy who's gone strangely quiet this year. Some doubt has crept in. All you have to do is make a list of the arms they have moving up the ranks. I personally have never seen anything like this with the Twins. In the next 2 seasons we will witness many debuts (and struggles). The difference is the odds of a few making a mark is much better when you have this many. Then there's Martin and Lewis and that's no joke. 

 

It is hard to be patient especially when they seem to coddle the top prospects and we get to watch the fringe guys. On the other hand we got to see what can happen when guys get moved up ahead of schedule. Celestino and Larnach had some struggles. Celestino had more and he was also the one who was rushed more ahead of schedule. Larnach looks like he is adjusting.

 

I will be surprised if Joe Ryan comes straight over from Tokyo, but he might and if not it will be soon. Keep em coming!

 

 

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I've posted here before and I'll say it again now, if the FO had signed 2 maybe 3 average bullpen arms we would be looking at a lot better record today. Someone out there can tell us how many leads were blown this year vs. how many normally are blown.

Next is the decision on field manager. Is Rocco the guy we want running a younger team? Sure he was MOY in 2019, but with a veteran club. I wonder if he is the right guy for the job without a guy like Cruz to lead the way in the clubhouse.

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6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

That's probably conventional wisdom, yes. But what is Baddoo's actual "position" this year? Who appears more capable of contributing to a MLB team - Baddoo or Cave? I want the FO to be able to make those kinds of assessments with accuracy - not just to rely on general conventional wisdom.

I fully realize I'm being additionally tough on the FO here. But like all of you, I love this team, and I want to see them at their best with the most effective talent assessment possible. That's the only way we can build a winner here. And winning a championship is fun - I'm old enough to have seen two of them.

It comes down to choices. We traded Gil for Cave, so Cave needs to make it, therefore we picked Cave over Wade. We signed Donaldson & Sano, so Cron/Schoop don't make it. We choose not to spend money on relievers (because of Addison Reed) so we let May go and we sign reclamation projects. Not sure what to say on Baddoo - but Terry Ryan would have protected him. Front offices are very partial to their own players. Baddoo wasn't Falvey's. 

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14 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

it's wise roster management to keep a guy that you know can help you contend over a guy that hadn't played in two years

Isn't the wisest roster management to keep players with the most talent and ability - particularly at the moment when you need those talents/skills? I can be fairly accused of trying to make a point with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm hoping that there is an important lesson in here for Falvey/Levine about talent assessment, too.

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Still, nobody should downplay what a disaster the 2021 season has been. It has been arguably the most disappointing season in club history relative to expectations. The front office not only whiffed on its free agent pitching acquisitions, but it also whiffed on a few prospects that were traded away only to immediately find success with other clubs. By no means should anyone be fired -- and only rubes would be calling for that at this point. But a couple of key points certainly ARE debatable at this point.  1) This team has fallen light years behind the White Sox and while the Twins are living proof that fortunes can change quickly, it sure seems unlikely that the Twins are going to be able to supplant Chicago for at least 2-3 years.  And, 2) Given how disastrously the 2021 season has gone across the board, it's also fair to question the idea that this front office has what it takes to be one of the truly elite units in the game.  As Nick points out, they've proven to be wholly competent. And that's worth something, to be sure. But by no means have they proven themselves to be the type of elite front office that can usher the club to consistent quality year after year.  Despite the high points of their tenure (2017, 2019, and probably 2020), there have also been a couple of terrible years (2018 and 2021). I suspect we'll learn a lot about the fortitude of this group over the course of the next 12 months. 

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I feel like the negativity towards the front office is well-deserved. There is no denying that there have been plenty of head-scratching moves both before and during the season that raise serious questions about where this franchise is headed. While it is much too early to be calling for their heads, I think it is fair to criticize them for what has transpired this season, especially since the FO has gotten much of the praise for recent success when much of said success was driven by the core that the previous FO had assembled.

The biggest problem I have with their roster management this season is letting players like LaMonte Wade and Akil Baddoo go in favor of Nick Gordon. I understand the reasoning behind leaving Baddoo unprotected and trading Wade; The Twins had a surplus of talent at OF, favored veteran players like Cave more than raw players like Baddoo and Wade, and in Baddoo's case, they thought the chances of him being selected were slim. What I don't understand is what did had to gain by keeping Gordon instead of these two players. I would understand this if they thought Gordon could contribute to this team this year or if they liked his long-term potential, but clearly the FO believes neither of those things. If Gordon is not even worth trying in the Majors in a season where we have absolutely nothing to lose, why keep him in the first place? Why are we content to let younger players with more upside like Baddoo and Wade go when you don't believe that the player you are keeping instead will amount to anything?

 

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FO can take criticism, part of the job, nobody bats 1.000. Part of problem with FAs is top candidates don't want to come to Minnesota. Also, as someone pointed out earlier in posts, last year most of others considered really have not done well this year. For Twins to have an ace pitcher, they will probably have to develop one. If it was easy, every team would have an ace. I am waiting for this next wave of pitching prospects to arrive before making any judgements. I am as impatient as anyone, wanting to win this year. Twins are taking their time with prospects, thinking more long term. 

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6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Isn't the wisest roster management to keep players with the most talent and ability - particularly at the moment when you need those talents/skills? I can be fairly accused of trying to make a point with the benefit of hindsight, but I'm hoping that there is an important lesson in here for Falvey/Levine about talent assessment, too.

I hope that they do learn something from the evaluation aspect, but given the context, I imagine they do the same thing.  They needed to fill the roster with known commodities, not complete wild cards who hadn't played in two years.  Context is important in this discussion.

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Some very good points here, both in the article and in the comments. The front office deserves a lot of credit for some of the moves they did. Others look decidedly worse in hindsight. 

However, it's very easy to criticize decisions after they have gone wrong. There are always so many factors that can ruin a plan. It sure seemed like everything the FO tried this season blew up in their faces. My only real criticism after the offseason was that they tried to fill the last rotation spot on the cheap. (I wanted Taijuan Walker instead of Shoemaker.) Otherwise, I thought the offseason was okay.

But then came a plethora of injuries (of which other teams also had plenty, so no excuses here), underperformances and mistakes at the worst possible times, and here we are, in last place in the Central. 

I will forgive them for this season. Sometimes it just doesn't work out. But this is also a real rest for the FO. Mistakes happen but how do you continue from here? They deserve the chance to prove themselves here.

So far though, I have some doubts about how they handled this. The last two months of this season are basically a golden opportunity to evaluate what you have in the system. So why is Miranda still at AAA? Or Moran?

In general, I have the feeling that this FO is often way too hesitant when it comes to releasing fringe veteran players who are clearly replaceable. It's like they always think "Oh, but we might still need..." (fill in Shoemaker. Or Happ. Or Cave. Or Astudillo. Or some reliever claimed off waivers. Or even Simmons at this point.) But that ignores the fact that such players and their subpar results can always be acquired via waivers or AAA if you need them.

And then these players take space away from younger players. Like, I really don't blame the FO for not seeing Baddoo's breakout coming. The guy had a .683 OPS at High-A the last time he played. No one could have seen that coming. The Tigers didn't either, I'd assume. But if they hadn't been so intent on keeping some fringe guys they might have had the space to protect their Nr. 13 prospect and just give him some time.

Sorry for this way-too-long comment. I just needed to get some of my thoughts off.

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I swear, last post for a bit, but for those like Nick who are wondering why there's so much negativity or pushback on this FO, here's the core of our argument:

Ability to draft: Perhaps too early to tell, though first-round choices don't seem overwhelmingly impressive. And some (Sabato) are mind-bogglingly bad.

Ability to assess MiLB talent internally: Doesn't look great at this point. Pathways for prospects isn't clear, and many get blocked by sub-par or replacement-level players.

Ability to develop MLB players: So-so. Most young Twins seem particularly fundamentally unsound (though rookies often struggle).

Ability to trade and assess MiLB/MLB talent externally: Not good at all. Maeda may have been a slight win, while there are some major, major losses.

Ability to field a winner: Division championships in the years when 3 of 5 division foes were completely rebuilding. Not a single playoff victory - in fact, not even a competitive game or a close loss yet.

In fact, many of us are wondering why is there so much defense of this regime. It's not a particularly hasty assessment at this point. I'm hoping for the best, but I'm waiting for actual results of a sustainable winner - which was their stated goal. If my assessment isn't fair, I'll be very happy to eat my words.

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Is it possible that one of Thad Lavine and Derek Falvey is good at their job and maybe one isn't?

I think we really need to know who does what. Who's in charge of negotiating contracts? Who's in charge of prioritizing free agents? Does Deron Johnson have full draft autonomy? I assume not so how's that dynamic work? I assume Falvey is in charge of implementing all the new statistical analysis to the organization? Who is making the decisions about which guys are called up from Rochester? Who's managing the 40-man roster? Who's managing the 26-man roster? Who's managing the payroll? Who's making the call on the coaching staff (and lack of bench coach)?

Keeping this stuff vague probably helps insulate them from some blame, but these are two different people with two different jobs, they aren't, you know, actual Twins.

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2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The Royals won the WS without an ace.

They had 2 starting pitchers with regular season ERAs of 3.18 and 3.58 that year. They won all 3 WS games where those pitchers pitched. Also, sometimes crazy stuff happens. I don't think MLB owners/mangement should rely upon luck.

3 hours ago, Emjay said:

Let's face it, this is how it is and how it always will be in small market pro sports...

The Twins are not remotely close to small market.

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6 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

I swear, last post for a bit, but for those like Nick who are wondering why there's so much negativity or pushback on this FO, here's the core of our argument:

Ability to draft: Perhaps too early to tell, though first-round choices don't seem overwhelmingly impressive. And some (Sabato) are mind-bogglingly bad.

Ability to assess MiLB talent internally: Doesn't look great at this point. Pathways for prospects isn't clear, and many get blocked by sub-par or replacement-level players.

Ability to develop MLB players: So-so. Most young Twins seem particularly fundamentally unsound (though rookies often struggle).

Ability to trade and assess MiLB/MLB talent externally: Not good at all. Maeda may have been a slight win, while there are some major, major losses.

Ability to field a winner: Division championships in the years when 3 of 5 division foes were completely rebuilding. Not a single playoff victory - in fact, not even a competitive game or a close loss yet.

In fact, many of us are wondering why is there so much defense of this regime. It's not a particularly hasty assessment at this point. I'm hoping for the best, but I'm waiting for actual results of a sustainable winner - which was their stated goal. If my assessment isn't fair, I'll be very happy to eat my words.

So it's their fault the other teams were bad? They won the division twice, after the team was awful under the previous leadership. It really is amazing how some won't give them credit for that. Truly.

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1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Also, their emphasis on bat first, mediocre or worse fielders in the draft? Not a fan at all. 

Matt Wallner will fit right into that trend.  He looked really bad in RF in Cedar Rapids on Friday.  I wish Keirsey could hit, because he looked the like real deal out in CF.

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1 hour ago, cjvirnig said:

Still, nobody should downplay what a disaster the 2021 season has been. It has been arguably the most disappointing season in club history relative to expectations.

That honor still goes to 2011, which had *two* former MVPs under 30 on its roster to open the season.

Wow, that season was terrible. Much like this season, everything that could go wrong did but at least that team still had a ton of under-30 talent. The bulk of the team people cared about was still under 30: Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Span, Baker, et al.

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1 hour ago, dbminn said:

I generally agree with your comment, I have not called for Falvey or Levine's head.  I disagree that the system was moribund, which was Nick's summation:

"This reassembled baseball ops department has been working ahead of schedule basically since they took over a moribund franchise in despair."

That's a bit much. The org was behind in the times but the system's roster was not "near death".

I think it's fair to say a franchise that led all of baseball in losses the previous 6 years and coming off a season with the most losses in Twins history was lacking vitality and vigor. 

You could say their system was healthy at that time but... was it? Their top 10 in 2016 included Nick Gordon (#4), Tyler Jay (#5), Stephen Gonsalves (#6), Alex Meyer (#8), Kohl Stewart (#9) and Nick Burdi (#10). I think you're looking through a really rose-colored hindsight lens to suggest this franchise was in anything other than a dire state when new leadership took over. TR's front office had been rebuilding fruitlessly for half a decade. 

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9 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

I think it's fair to say a franchise that led all of baseball in losses the previous 6 years and coming off a season with the most losses in Twins history was lacking vitality and vigor. 

You could say their system was healthy at that time but... was it? Their top 10 in 2016 included Nick Gordon (#4), Tyler Jay (#5), Stephen Gonsalves (#6), Alex Meyer (#8), Kohl Stewart (#9) and Nick Burdi (#10). I think you're looking through a really rose-colored hindsight lens to suggest this franchise was in anything other than a dire state when new leadership took over. TR's front office had been rebuilding fruitlessly for half a decade. 

It isn't much healthier now.  Here's a link to the Twins Top 10 going into this season:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2020/twins/

They're all hurt or ranging from floundering to inconsistent at best at their current level.

Now Kirilloff, Balazovic and Javier are from the last FO, but the other seven are their guys.  

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3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I agree with the general premise. I also agree with Brock. I'll be honest.... If Burrows is on this roster still, over at least three candidates in AAA, I don't like what they are doing at all. 

In five years, we still don't have one pitcher, starter or reliever, we are confident in. While there weren't great free agents this year, their inability to trade for or sign guys to longer deals, meant they had to, again, get two new starting pitchers. That's not a sustainable model. 

Next year is the year they are out of excuses. If there aren't multiple pitchers up from the system after six years......

Also, their emphasis on bat first, mediocre or worse fielders in the draft? Not a fan at all. 

There are many teams sustaining a model that rarely involves signing 4+ year free agents.  Those same teams trade for guys with multiple years of control but they are never the type of established front of the rotation guys called for here.  There should be several examples from Tampa Bay / Oakland / Milwaukee / Cleveland if your premise is valid.  How many can you name?

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2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is my biggest concern as well. No organization had a better access to assess Baddoo, and they completely misjudged. Same with LaMonte Wade. And selling low on the area of greatest need with this organization (pitching) is also really bad. Right now, the two they gave away in meaningless trades (Ynoa and Gil) are far more prominent and promising than any they've developed. That's a very, very bad sign - that means we're feeding wins to our MLB competitors.

I also disagree with this: "which is no worse than the ones we saw repeatedly before they arrived." Look, bad seasons are bad seasons, but the Twins have likely never been further from their preseason expectations than they are this year. It's far worse to watch a contending team crumble to dust than it is to watch a bottom-feeding team face expected struggles.

I appreciate what you're doing here, but fans can be forgiven for any anger and pessimism. This FO inherited a promising young team on the cusp of greatness. And with zero playoff wins to show for it, they have now turned it into a bottom-5 MLB team with the worst pitching staff in baseball. Is it a blip or a trend? I guess we'll find out next year.

"This FO inherited a promising young team on the cusp of greatness. And with zero playoff wins to show for it, they have now turned it into a bottom-5 MLB team with the worst pitching staff in baseball."

This speaks volumes! 

 

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I don't know what I don't know with the FO.  I hoped they had been aggressive in trying to move a Sano or Kepler for pitching last offseason, but I don't know that they tested the waters and didn't see anything worth pursuing.   I also have no idea what kind of edicts if any are given to Rocco and crew on lineups, pitching changes etc.  

The FO is like a college football coach only approaching their own recruiting classes.  I don't love the continued trial of other teams' 40 man refuse,  but I assume that's only part of short term planning.  They get more patience from me.

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I don't know as I've seen much of the clean house sentiment to be honest. Plenty of frustration and eroded confidence, though. I think the frustration is warranted. I think 2022 is probably the season in which fans will start calling for Falvey and Levine to be walked out the door if things go poorly.

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4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

My problems with the front office don't have a lot to do with this season in Minnesota, at least not directly. They made some mistakes, did dumb stuff, was slapped around for it. That happens, now let's see how they rebound next season. But...

1. They've shown to be pretty bad at self-evaluation of the organization. They're routinely trading or waiving or leaving unprotected players that immediately turn around and have success elsewhere. Their trades from their first two seasons, 2017-2018, are showing mixed results at best. I can forgive them a Baddoo but not multiple Baddoos over only a few seasons.

2. People are being rather unfair with the pitching timeline (there are currently only five pitchers from that 2017 draft with >1 career rWAR, pitching takes time) and I've been quite patient with the results, particularly with Covid. But in the wake of Covid, we have over half a MiLB season to evaluate and let's just say they're not blowing my socks off with these results. Right about now is when we should be excited to see the coming wave of prospects but what we're really excited about is other teams' prospects that the Twins gave away high-end MLB assets to control. That's not an encouraging sign.

3. This is tied into #2 but... Beau Burrows. And a thousand other players like him in 2021. It's time to wipe out these fringe acquisitions and promote from within. If they don't see what they have right now, they won't know what they have to start 2022, either. And while it's primarily a problem with pitchers, there is zero reason for Andrelton Simmons to be on this roster right now. Play Gordon, IL Donaldson, call up Miranda... shuffle things up because record no longer matters in 2021. I'll forgive the front office for everything going to hell in a handbasket in the immediate follow-up to 2020 but their responses are almost as disappointing as the failures that led us to this point.

I'm not ready to move on from them yet but where I was generally positive about them one year ago, I'm am equally as negative today. It feels like they're operating without a coherent plan right now and that's possibly the worst trait a front office can have in a time like this. They need to commit to a decision and move in that direction.

I agree with most of this (not all), but I particularly agree with the Beau Burrows comment. There seems top be a reluctance to admit an honest mistake and move on. I understand picking him up, I really DON"T understand keeping him on the roster. We need to pick these guys up, evaluate them, and cut bait when we're wrong. Hopefully he's been DFA'd by the time you read this. I wonder if part of the issue is ego or that they're trying not to bring guys up in a bad year and pick up an extra year of control. I hope that's not it because that strikes me a mistake. THIS is the evaluation year. Use it. 

I have to also wonder a little about those who are suggesting that Terry Ryan was/would have been/could have been as good as the current FO. I just think that flies n the face of reality. This franchise was going nowhere fast when these guys took over.  There was little to no chance of improvement.  Now we have improved and I think in a way that never would have occurred with Ryan. He was great in the 90s and early 200s, lousy when he came back. He didn't keep up with analytical and technological trends and the team fell behind. We needed new blood. Now, the new FO may not be the long term answer. I get that. Suggesting that they haven't been a huge improvement just doesn't make sense to me.   

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