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The first week of post-deadline baseball saw highs and lows for a reshaped rotation that now consists of 60% rookies.  

Ultimately, with help from the bats, Twins pitching was good enough to produce a winning week on the road against some solid competition. Let us review.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/2 thru Sun, 8/8
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 48-64)
Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: -73)
Standing: 5th Place in AL Central (17.5 GB)

Last Week's Game Recaps:

Game 107 | MIN 7, CIN 5: Garver, Polanco Power Exciting Win
Game 108 | CIN 6, MIN 5: Twins Comeback Falls Short
Game 109 | MIN 5, HOU 3: Jax Earns First MLB Win as Starter
Game 110 | MIN 5, HOU 4: Twins Rally from Early Deficit
Game 111 | HOU 4, MIN 0: Lineup Has No Answers for Houston Pitching
Game 112 | MIN 7, HOU 5: Polanco's 2 Homers Lift Twins to Series Win

NEWS & NOTES

Sidelined since early June by a bad hammy strain, Rob Refsnyder finally returned from the Injured List on Thursday, and has since resumed his role as semi-regular center fielder in Byron Buxton's absence. Refsnyder's activation led to Nick Gordon being optioned to Triple-A, which caused some consternation among fans who wished to see Gordon get a real shot.

I get it. I like Gordon as a person and would love to see him succeed. It can feel hard to understand what's holding him back from more playing time on a bad team that's going nowhere. But this move makes it all the clearer how the Twins view him, and ... can you really blame them? 

While the speed is nice, Gordon has simply shown no signs that he can be an impactful contributor on a major-league team. He's a capable defender at several spots, but nowhere is he a standout, and the Twins seem to have zero interest in playing him at short. When you combine that defensive profile with a completely punchless bat, there isn't much value to be found. During his time in the majors, Gordon put 70 balls in play and recorded one barrel. He slashed .176/.263/.235 in his final 20 games. He lacks any discipline at the plate, offering at 45.8% pitches outside the zone, which is second on the team behind (of course) Willians Astudillo.

It's not happening for Gordon this year. Now that doesn't preclude the possibility that he works his ass off during the winter, bulks up, and comes out next spring with a significantly bolstered skill set. We'll see if the Twins hold him on the 40-man roster and pursue that avenue. For now, the sad fact is that Refsnyder has a better chance of being a valuable contributor on the 2022 Twins.

In other roster news of the week: Another right-handed reliever picked up off waivers. Just days after snagging Edgar Garcia following his DFA from Cincinnati, the Twins claimed former Astro Ralph Garza Jr., who was immediately optioned to Triple-A to join Garcia on the Saints.

Garza, like many pitchers the Twins have added of late, has intriguing attributes and big strikeout rates in the minors, but also some clear flaws. There's no particular reason to think he or Garcia – discarded cast-offs from other organizations – will turn to anything useful. 

But then again, the same thing applies in the bullpen as in the rotation: the Twins are going to need help from the minors and every lottery ticket helps. It's a numbers game and the team is improving its odds.

HIGHLIGHTS

With veterans José Berríos and J.A. Happ departing at the deadline, Minnesota plugged in Griffin Jax and Charlie Barnes, who join incumbent rookie Bailey Ober in a suddenly very inexperienced rotation. It's quite the departure from Opening Day, when Berríos was their youngest starter.

While veteran holdovers Kenta Maeda and Michael Pineda are interesting to track for their own reasons, the youth movement is now the central focus for the starting corps. None of the three rookies currently in the rotation are top prospects, but in the numbers game, it's all about letting them run and seeing if one emerges. 

This past week, the numbers showed some things to like from Jax and Ober:

  • Jax spun 5 ⅓ innings of one-run ball in Houston on Thursday against the highest-scoring offense in the majors. (Albeit one missing several key bats.) He allowed only three hits and one walk in an efficient and impressive performance. Jax recorded zero strikeouts and only three swinging strikes in the outing, which is concerning, but he did pile up six strikeouts on 16 whiffs against the White Sox two starts prior, so he has at least shown the capability to miss bats. In his past three starts dating back to that one, Jax has a 1.88 ERA with six hits allowed in 14 ⅓ frames.
  • Ober's start on Saturday was a mixed bag. On the one hand, we saw his strengths on display, with five strikeouts and one walk pushing his outstanding seasonal ratio to 56-to-15 ratio in 52 ⅓ innings. Ober's 3.7 K/BB ranks second among Twins starters behind Pineda. Ober also gave up two home runs in his five innings of work, surfacing his biggest weakness, but in general he too has been on a good track. In his past three starts, Ober has a 3.77 ERA and 15-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 ⅓ frames.

Several relievers also had strong showings as the bullpen rebounded from a very ugly run the previous week. Jorge Alcala allowed one hit (a home run) in three innings of work, striking out six of the 11 batters he faced. Alex Colomé worked four scoreless appearances and picked up three saves. Juan Minaya struck out eight over 4 ⅓ shutout innings between three appearances, allowing just two hits.

On the offensive side, it was a relatively quiet week with a few standout performances. In spite of his barking knees, Luis Arraez continues to rake; he notched hits in every game he played and went 10-for-17 overall to raise his average to .318, which would rank sixth in baseball if qualified. Jorge Polanco drilled three more homers, and leads the American League in long balls over the past month. It's a remarkable turnaround from a player whose power had been totally sapped.

Miguel Sanó did not have a particularly strong week overall, but he did make a game-saving defensive play at third on Friday night, and did this to a baseball on Sunday:

LOWLIGHTS

While Jax and Ober came through with encouraging performances, Barnes was less inspiring. Facing Cincinnati on Wednesday, the left-hander was knocked around for five earned runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings of work. Through two major-league starts he has a 6.23 ERA with three strikeouts and three walks in 8 ⅔ innings. He has induced only seven swinging strikes on 148 pitches between the two outings (5%).

Barnes isn't embarrassing as a spot-starter type but it'd be nice to get someone in that fifth rotation slot with a little more upside. The Twins are slowly starting to get healthier in their starting pitching ranks, so maybe a few options will emerge in the coming weeks. Lewis Thorpe was activated from a lengthy IL stint and started Sunday for the Saints. Randy Dobnak was reportedly doing some "light throwing at Target Field" on Sunday morning, suggesting he's on the comeback trail.

I realize these names aren't going to have folks leaping with excitement but they both have a better chance of factoring significantly into the 2022 rotation than Barnes.

Brent Rooker cooled off following a red-hot start to his second stint with the Twins this year, going just 3-for-22, although he continued to flash power with all three hits going for doubles. Selectiveness at the plate will be the key thing to watch from Rooker, and he's leaving much to be desired in that area. He's not working into enough favorable counts and when at-bats end with pitchers ahead, he's just 1-for-29 this season. 

Alas, Rooker looks like an unstoppable offensive force in comparison to Andrelton Simmons. Anyone does. Simmons just continues sinking to new depths, with a 2-for-18 week dropping his slash line to a pitiful .216/.280/.275. His last extra-base hit came on July 2nd, 30 games ago, and since then he has a .355 OPS. 

There's no point in continuing to run him out there. Remaining money owed is unfortunately a sunk cost. The Twins would be better off sliding Polanco back over to short for the rest of the season and giving the reps at second base to someone like Arraez or Gordon or even Jose Miranda.

TRENDING STORYLINE

When they acquired him as the headliner in the Berríos trade, I wrote about why Austin Martin is a prospect very much worth getting excited about. Since the trade, he's been doing plenty to fuel the hype.

Following a three-hit game for the Wichita Wind Surge on Sunday, Martin is now batting .400 with a .571 on-base percentage since coming over to the Twins organization. His eye at the plate is outrageously good, as illustrated by a 1-to-6 K/BB ratio in six games with Wichita. He has proven already to be a playmaker in the outfield and on the basepaths.  

Since the start of July, Martin has reached base in 52% of his plate appearances. That's no tiny sample. The idea of him complementing Arraez at the top of order, in front of a proven pack of power hitters, is beyond tantalizing. How far is it from becoming a reality? Next year seems likely, and maybe even from the start. But in order to make Martin a viable candidate for Opening Day, the Twins will need to take some preparatory steps. I'll be quite curious to see if he joins the club as a September call-up, or at least gets a late-season look in Triple-A. 

His defensive profile makes Martin an especially intriguing piece in the team's planning. Could he take over in center field if Buxton is traded this offseason? Maybe Martin steps in at second with Polanco pivoting back to short. Or perhaps, as I posited in my theoretical 2022 lineup on Twitter, left field is Martin's best initial entry point into the majors.

LOOKING AHEAD

It bums me out to look ahead at the schedule right now. If things had gone as planned, this would've been an absolutely crucial and thrilling stretch: The Twins, returning home from their longest road trip of the year, face off against the White Sox, Rays, and Cleveland, in consecutive series at Target Field. Could you imagine the stakes and intensity if Minnesota was in contention?!

Alas, they are not. So all we can really look forward to is the return of Nelson Cruz to Target Field in another uniform. Hooray.

MONDAY, 8/9: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. LHP Charlie Barnes
TUESDAY, 8/10: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Griffin Jax
WEDNESDAY, 8/11: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Bailey Ober
FRIDAY, 8/13: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Shane McClanahan v. RHP Michael Pineda
SATURDAY, 8/14: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Wacha v. RHP Kenta Maeda
SUNDAY, 8/15: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Josh Fleming v. LHP Charlie Barnes

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Bummer the Twins aren't in the hunt, but I think it's still fun to see prospects getting chances.

I agree the Twins have spoken on Gordon and I think they have ample reason to doubt his ability to play at the MLB level. It's just a personal pet peeve of mine to see younger players who aren't given a chance but who are still locked down with team control. I remember another player who wasn't good enough to play shortstop a few years ago because he had no bat and questionable defense. Some fans might remember him. He played a couple years on the Twins after that. His name was Eduardo Escobar and he almost didn't get a shot to play because he was stashed way behind perennial MVP candidate Pedro Florimon.

Ober is doing what he can to make a case for a rotation spot next year and Martin is a nice bright spot. Speaking of bright spots, Simeon Woods-Richardson and Joe Ryan should be headed back to the USA from the Tokyo Olympics soon. Honestly, such a bummer Woods-Richardson's number didn't come up after the rainout game scheduled with Puerto Rico, but I'm sure it was a blast anyway.

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someone who was missed.  Cave went 5 for 18 with 2 walks and a triple since coming back from the DL.  That is a .278/.350/.389 and .734 OPS.  I think if Cave can hit .250 with 9 or 10 walks in 120 ABs with 5 doubles and 5 Hrs he will make a nice case to return next year as a back up.  and with The guy we traded for him, I would like to see Cave end up with close to 1200 -1500 ABs  by the time he leaves Minnesota to give us a better return on that trade.  

I think Baily Ober has almost shown me enough to have the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation locked down.  He has great strikeout rates, low walk rates, and ok hit rates.  I think he just needs to be able to show he can pick up where he leaves off this year next year.  He seems pretty consistent.  Jax shows potential.  so I want to give him time.  I donl't know how much he has but probably more than Barnes.  While Barnes hasn't been horrible I think he is the easiest to replace in the rotation.

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I don't see why we are wasting time with Barnes, send him back to St. Paul and bring up another young pitcher, or maybe they will bring up Thorpe when he is stretched out.  

Agree on Simmons, but feel the Twins do not want to spoil the 2 top minor league teams by moving more players to Minnesota.  Won't mind seeing Ryan up here, we have nothing to lose at this time, and he has not pitched in our system, so we are not costing a farm club an arm. 

Outside of that, move Burrows and bring up another arm, if he is just used for mop duty, we have other pitchers we need to see.

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It's only one week but the new rotation and BP members gave us reason to believe in a much better brand of baseball for the remainder of the season and a much better product next year.  Sure would be nice to see similar pitching this week.  More help is on the way too.  I would not be surprised if Joe Ryan is moved straight to the big club.  If not, we should get a look at him and a couple other pitchers soon.  

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Nice article.  I would request you or Seth do another article on pitching prospects - take our current young pitchers, the old list of Dobnak/Lewis/Smeltzer, the newly acquired, and the minor leaguers including those on the IL and give us a ranking that is based on MLB potential.  All these names keep popping up and the newest names always look best because they have not had a chance to show us why they are not great so please help us out.  We now have all these arms and I wonder about Ober/Jax/Barnes in comparison - do they get the slots because of seniority or talent?

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Right now, for next year rotation is only Maeda. I think they will bring a couple of free agents, so there will be 2 spots available next year. As of now the one that looks better positioned to take advantage of the opportunity is Ober. Then I think the second spot is close: Jax, Barnes, Thorpe?, one of the new guys? That is an interesting race to see till the end of the season. (I don't put Balazovich, Duran and the other younger guys because I don't think they will be ready at the beggining of next season, but I might be wrong)

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Thanks for another great read, Nick.

As they trot different pitchers out the next six weeks, really looking forward to seeing Dobnak and Thorpe.  Want a healthy Dobber confirm that he can be included in next year's plans in the starting five.  Want to see Thorpe get one last chance to prove that he can be a solid big league starter.  If he doesn't, his 40-man spot is in jeopardy and expect he will be gone.  Also looking forward to see Ryan, but for different reasons.

None of us knows who the starting shortstop will be come next July.  Will Martin or Lewis move quickly enough to claim it?  And I was thinking what you wrote prior to reading it, I want to see Arraez and Martin back to back at the top of future Twins lineups for the rest of the decade.  Will destroy opposing pitchers confidence.

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With Simmons very disappointing offense, looks like we still have a big hole at SS next year.  We have a bunch of middle IFs - Polanco, Arraez, Martin, and maybe in a year, Lewis - but none seem to fit the need for an above average fielder at the most critical position.  Polanco makes sense for remainder of this year, but they signed Simmons because Polanco was not good enough at SS.  Arraez is certainly not the man and from scattered reports so far, neither Martin or Lewis seems to fit the bill.  Both have been mentioned several times as more suited for OF.

Kneejerk rx may be to just sign one of the stellar FA SSs coming on the market, but that just seems like a waste of payroll with the need for pitching far more important than SS.  Isn't it folly to think that any one of our prospects can slot into any of the top 3 spots in the rotation in 2022?  Not to even mention bullpen needs.  If Twins really want to return to relevancy in 2022, they must spend some big bucks on pitching - and more importantly, resign Buxton.  Those should be top priorities.

One way to start sorting out the different pieces might be to bring up Martin to play 3B and move Donaldson to DH.  I know that's a real push for Martin but what else does he have to prove at SP?  Arraez should stay at 2B  and Polanco at SS.  One advantage I see is that this move can free up some trade pieces for a solid rotation piece.  Arraez, Sano and even Lewis might bring in some real pitching talent.   Just speculating, of course, but these next two months must be used to get better clarification on next year, not to recycle players who will not be part on 2022 roster.   And that includes pushing Ryan into the rotation and one or two minor league relievers up now, rather than wait for September.

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This front office will need to show patience. Most MLB pitchers aren't that successful right out of the gate. If you look back in Twins history, guys like Frank Viola and Brad Radke had 300+ MLB innings under their belts before they put it all together. If they think these guys have the stuff, they're going to have to let them take their lumps and not shuttle them back and forth to St Paul or the waiver wire. It's probably going to make for a long season in 2022, but we are where we are.

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15 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Other than winning ( or losing) some meaningless games, as the Twins grind to finish 2021,  how is it helping the Twins to play Simmons, Pinada or Colome ?

Agree. Though I'd go Simmons, Colome, Donaldson, Sano. I'd release Simmons and Colome, move Donaldson to DH, park Sano on the bench for pinch-hitting duty (a la Randy Bush), bring up Miranda to play 3rd, move Polanco back to SS and Arraez to 2nd. Then we'd have a real glimpse at next year's possibilities.

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2 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Agree. Though I'd go Simmons, Colome, Donaldson, Sano. I'd release Simmons and Colome, move Donaldson to DH, park Sano on the bench for pinch-hitting duty (a la Randy Bush), bring up Miranda to play 3rd, move Polanco back to SS and Arraez to 2nd. Then we'd have a real glimpse at next year's possibilities.

Oh, and bring Gordon back up and rotate him in at SS and 2nd. Give the kid a real opportunity to prove or disprove he can't play middle infield.

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45 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Other than winning ( or losing) some meaningless games, as the Twins grind to finish 2021,  how is it helping the Twins to play Simmons, Pinada or Colome ?

I think Pinada will probably be resigned here (or I hope he will be).  Colume seems to be fine as a closer on a losing club, do not see him doing it on a winning club.  Agree Simmons needs to be benched except for late inning defense.

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I'm not sure why they'd move Polanco back to SS. He's not good there. He's a legit good 2B. I'm not sure why I mess with that.

They do not have a SS in the system. It is priority 2 in FA this year for sure (or trade). 

That's why you keep playing Simmons. Because Polanco is a 2B. 

The real question is what is Arraez if Polanco is your 2B?

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I wonder what Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, or Rod Carew's barrel % was? Seriously, were those hits all barrelled? Would guys like that get a chance to play in 2021?

Greg Maddox won 15 games in 1990 (along with 8 complete games). In 2021, would he have been sent down to AAA because of he only averaged 5 strikeouts per 9?

Not saying barrel % and k/9 don't matter, just wondering how many great players from the past wouldn't have been considered roadkill in today's all-or-nothing game.

 

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17 minutes ago, beckmt said:

Agree Simmons needs to be benched except for late inning defense.

Simmons' defense is still strong, and his field awareness is keen. If I were the manager, I'd want that experience on the field as an example to the younger players and to give the young SPs and RPs a potential boost (and maybe even to shorten their innings). But otherwise I agree - after 2021, time to move on.

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38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd 100% prefer Thorpe move the bullpen, where he has a much better chance of being a MLB pitcher. Ober, Jax, Dobnak are all as good or better than Thorpe as starters. Give Thorpe a legit shot to be part of the bullpen. 

I agree with you.  I think Thorpe's best chance to stick is in relief and he should have enough pitches to get lefties and righties out.  He doesn't throw that hard as it is but his arm can at least play up in the pen.  I just can't see him starting anymore. Not sure what happened but as he filled out it seems like he has lost arm speed etc.  As seen this year we could use all the good pen arms we can find.  If he can be good there it solves one more spot.

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Re: New Look Rotation:

As of now, how I see the 2022 rotation shaking out like this:

1.  ?

2. ?

3. Maeda (optimistic)

4. ?

5. Ober

I don’t usually care for one year “make good” pitcher contracts, but next year sure, go to town. Find a couple guys one year for cheap. I’m sure Pineda would come back, as well.

So yes I do think Ryan slots into the rotation next season, and hopefully performs in a slot above where Maeda is. I’m not confident in the other two pitchers they traded for contributing in 2022 at this point.

Speaking of Maeda. It seems like Maeda is starting to struggle with his ability to put hitters away? Same as several of you have mentioned about Jax not having that 2-strike strikeout pitch. Maeda is more and more looking exhausted after his starts, like he’s been wrung through an Olympic triathlon after not training for it, or something similarly grueling. Even after five innings he sometimes looks completely spent. He might need an extra recovery day between starts in 2022. I did not see how he came out of yesterday’s game, however. 

Speaking of Olympics. Interesting that the Twins traded for not one but two guys who were currently overseas when the trade was finalized. Did any other players on the Olympic team get traded? Maybe falvine has discovered a new market inefficiency?

thank you all for letting me post and air my thoughts!

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41 minutes ago, bighat said:

I wonder what Tony Gwynn, Ozzie Smith, or Rod Carew's barrel % was? Seriously, were those hits all barrelled? Would guys like that get a chance to play in 2021?

Greg Maddox won 15 games in 1990 (along with 8 complete games). In 2021, would he have been sent down to AAA because of he only averaged 5 strikeouts per 9?

Not saying barrel % and k/9 don't matter, just wondering how many great players from the past wouldn't have been considered roadkill in today's all-or-nothing game.

 

Well.... Gordon isn't getting singles either. And he is an ok fielder. He also swings at everything outside the zone. He has zero in common with the players you mentioned. Also, just because we used to not have data before does but mean it isn't useful.

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22 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Re: New Look Rotation:

As of now, how I see the 2022 rotation shaking out like this:

1.  ?

2. ?

3. Maeda (optimistic)

4. ?

5. Ober

I don’t usually care for one year “make good” pitcher contracts, but next year sure, go to town. Find a couple guys one year for cheap. I’m sure Pineda would come back, as well.

So yes I do think Ryan slots into the rotation next season, and hopefully performs in a slot above where Maeda is. I’m not confident in the other two pitchers they traded for contributing in 2022 at this point.

If we don't find 3 respectable veteran arms to fill in those question marks it'll be pure negligence by the front office. Maeda is no sure bet to rebound to even a #3 next year. Ober and the rest of the prospects could be fine or could be up and down all year working through adjustments. And most of our pitching prospects have innings limits, balky elbows, or other health risks. Any team needs to plan for 7-8 starters to get through a year, minimum. The floor can get a whole lot lower than we saw this season if we don't backstop the rotation with some real arms.

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Fun week, and I agree there are a couple more moves to make as we evaluate this group. Pitching wise, get Ryan up to take Barnes' place when he's back from the Olympics. Put Thorpe in the bullpen when he's ready. We need to see if he can be effective because he's in his last option year. I would also try to find a way to give Gant a few starts. He's been very effective as a reliever, was a starter and wants to start. Let's see if he can. Worst case scenario, he's in the bullpen next year (still amazed at the trade for him).  I also think we need to give Hamilton and Moran a shot in the bullpen. They can take the place of Burrows and Coulombe.

I disagree with the posters who want to release Colome. He's been effective for the last two months and we need a back end guy with Rogers on the IL for the rest of the year. Use 2021 to evaluate him We may need him next year.   

In the field, I think everybody we need to see is already up with the possible exception of Miranda and he's only a Donaldson IL stint from being needed. I suspect they'll keep him and Martin in the minors so the don't have to make a 40 man roster move by releasing someone else and also not burn an option year since they're both in the 23 and under range.  

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38 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Well.... Gordon isn't getting singles either. And he is an ok fielder. He also swings at everything outside the zone. He has zero in common with the players you mentioned. Also, just because we used to not have data before does but mean it isn't useful.

I understand why Gordon's being sent down. I'm just saying that with some seasoning, the kid could probably hit .250 and steal 40 bases. Maybe seems like the type of player who could have had a chance to play a few full seasons in the 70s, 80s, or 90s.

I'm not saying he should be here, or even deserves to be here in 2021. Just observing and bringing up a conversation, nothing more.

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3 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Agree. Though I'd go Simmons, Colome, Donaldson, Sano. I'd release Simmons and Colome, move Donaldson to DH, park Sano on the bench for pinch-hitting duty (a la Randy Bush), bring up Miranda to play 3rd, move Polanco back to SS and Arraez to 2nd. Then we'd have a real glimpse at next year's possibilities.

If horrible infield defense is the glimpse of next years possibilities that you want to see, doing as you suggest is definitely the way to go.

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So back to the topic of rotation, what the Twins do in the offseason to address their rotation will determine whether or not their goal is to be .500+ (Pineda, Cueto) go for the World Series (Verlander, Stroman) or start planning their surprise at being awful speech before the season starts (all Twins controlled guys)

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2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure why they'd move Polanco back to SS. He's not good there. He's a legit good 2B. I'm not sure why I mess with that.

They do not have a SS in the system. It is priority 2 in FA this year for sure (or trade). 

That's why you keep playing Simmons. Because Polanco is a 2B. 

The real question is what is Arraez if Polanco is your 2B?

I believe Falvine recently said that Royce Lewis is definitely a SS. I expect they will give him every opportunity to play there and see how his ACL recovers.

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