Scouting Twins Prospects: Cole Sands

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

After three solid but accolade-light seasons at Florida State University, Cole Sands was the Twins' fifth-round pick in the 2018 draft. He catapulted up to Double-A during his first complete minor league season in 2019 after posting gaudy stats at both Low- and High-A, and his success at that level has continued into 2021.

Sands stands tall throughout his delivery and releases the ball from an almost wholly sidearm slot, though the slight tilt of his torso makes it appear as a three-quarters slot to opposing batters. He owns a three-pitch mix consisting of a fastball, curveball, and changeup. His fastball is good, if uninspiring, but his bread and butter pitch is his curveball. (The changeup has potential though he doesn't deploy it nearly as often as the other two.)

 

 

 

What makes Sands' curveball so good is its heavy 12-6 break. In the video example above, the curve's movement isn't necessarily anything to write home about; however, as the game marches on and fatigue sets in, it tends to adopt a more significant break.

Sands has the raw stuff to be an MLB pitcher, but two aspects of his game will determine whether he will be a starter or come out of the pen: His command and his changeup.

As with many of the up-and-coming pitchers in the Twins' system, Sands sometimes struggles with walks while simultaneously boasting substantial strikeout numbers. This summer's 4.15 BB/9 is nearly double any rate he posted before this season, while his 12.25 K/9 is commensurate with what he's done in the past. If 2021 is a blip and his actual level of command is more in line with what he showed in 2019 and prior, he'll have a much greater chance at sticking as a starter.

Likewise, Sands will be more likely to remain a starting pitcher if he develops his changeup further. As of this report, Sands' curveball is MLB-ready, while his fastball is good enough. His changeup boasts MLB caliber movement. He needs to, again, improve his command of it.

A good player comparison for Sands may be Tyler Duffey. Duffey was a borderline starter who truly excelled with a move to the bullpen and an increased reliance on his excellent curveball. It also doesn't hurt that everything about their profile, from their background as college starters to even their mechanics, is similar.

 

Cole Sands typically slots in around the 12-18 range in most Twins prospects lists alongside fellow pitchers Chris Vallimont and Drew Strotman. While all three are drastically different pitchers, much of the story behind their game is the same: They have at least one MLB level pitch, miss a ton of bats, and, at times, struggle with command. Sands's ceiling probably doesn't reach as high of the three, but his track record at the low minors suggests that his floor isn't as low either. Check back in five years, and you may find Sands as an anchor in the Twins bullpen.    

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[roger]

Interesting, thanks Lucas.  Someone who has gotten lost in the glitter surrounding those half dozen big time prospects the Twins have accumulated as of last week.

Sands, Vallimont and Strotman.  I hope like you know what that one of them becomes a solid #3 pitcher for the Twins by say, 2023.  Maybe another goes to the pen, but it would be FANTASTIC if one of the three makes it!

[Seth Stohs]

I watched his most recent start, and I know his numbers weren't great overall, but I was really impressed with that 12-6 curveball. He used it a lot, and it was really good. 

[bean5302]

I expect the feel on Sands' ceiling will be well known by mid next year. He's been good with limiting walks since his return from the IL on 7/14, but it's such a small sample size with him throwing such a tiny number of pitches. (26, 29, 50, 65). He has been more consistent at generating swinging strikes over those starts as well and he's been pounding the strike zone, too. His previous starts were sporadic on swinging strikes every other game (6%-19%)with a fairly consistent strike rate of 60% or so. The last 4 starts have all been 10%-19% swinging strike rate with an average strike rate of about 70%.

It's hard to say whether the improved performance is from pitching fewer innings and seeing batters fewer times or whether or not he's actually being a lot more efficient. Just have to wait and see if the Twins keep letting him ramp up the pitch count and watch the walks.

Right now, Sands probably has a ceiling of 4-5 starter and a more probable outcome of setup man in my opinion unless he's able to increase his efficiency. In his last start, even with a 68% zone rate and a 15.4% swinging strike rate, he still averaged nearly 18 pitches per inning.

[ashbury]

Watching this afternoon's game, and comparisons to Tyler Duffey seem like a kiss of death for a prospect.

[gil4]

On 8/8/2021 at 4:12 PM, ashbury said:

Watching this afternoon's game, and comparisons to Tyler Duffey seem like a kiss of death for a prospect.

Hopefully it was 2019-2020 Tyler Duffey we were comparing him to.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, gil4 said:

Hopefully it was 2019-2020 Tyler Duffey we were comparing him to.

I hate to throw effluent into anyone's cornflakes, but even at his peak Doof was never more than serviceable, certainly not dominant or lights out.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I hate to throw effluent into anyone's cornflakes, but even at his peak Doof was never more than serviceable, certainly not dominant or lights out.

Duffey was pretty much the definition of dominant in 2019-2020. I mean, at least I consider his performance pretty dominant:

80 G, 81.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 12.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, ERA+ 193.

[ashbury]

32 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Duffey was pretty much the definition of dominant in 2019-2020. I mean, at least I consider his performance pretty dominant:

80 G, 81.2 IP, 2.31 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 12.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, ERA+ 193.

He built those stats on abnormally low batting average on balls in play.  When his BABIP bounced back to league average, guess what: no more dominance. Like magic.

I don't trust small sample size numbers for relievers, and Tyler Duffey is an example of why.

I don't trust Tyler Duffey on the mound.  He's an average MLB pitcher, so he has skills and can be on a major league roster.  But let's not hold him up as a benchmark for the next pitcher we have high hopes for.