Four Players the Twins Could Trade This Winter

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Boom Boom said:

The Twins don't sign free agent starters who are as good as Berrios.  They have openings but will more likely fill them with JA Happ types.  

 

That's just my observation after 20 years following this team.  I hope you're right about the prospects.

You have a point for sure.  I was going to qualify this statement and chose to not get into it.  It would be most accurate to say teams with below average revenue ALMOST NEVER sign the very top free agents SPs.  Colorado signed Mike Hampton and Arizona signed Zack Grienke.  If we are going to accurately portraying the odds of this happening again we need to include the fact that Arizona had just signed a billion dollar TV contract.  We should also point out neither acquisition led to success.

Perhaps more to the point is that I said “could be replaced”.  Signing the highest profile FA is also not the only way to replace him in free agency.  Making a Carlos Rodon or Charlie Morton signing when the Rays got him is even more impactful than signing the big money FAs.

You are correct in that the Twins have not signed a $150M free agent SP.  However, if we are going to portray the situation accurately, we should say that it is an extreme rarity for any below average revenue team to sign these free agents.  It’s not the product of the Twins being cheap. It’s a matter of roster management.  Investing too high of a percentage of payroll in any single player is not effective which is why you don’t see any below average revenue teams investing in the highest priced FAs. 
 

[dbminn]

There are a lot of players the Twins could trade. Depends on the team's goals. These trade articles should always come with the author's proposed next competitive window.

If the Twins are looking at 2022-3, they can trade from positional surplus, but IMO only for a quality SP with several years of control. That could include a catcher (Garver/Jeffers), a 2B/UT player (Arraez) or a corner 1B/OF (Kepler/Larnach/Sano/Rooker). They could also add a SP prospect for the right return (heaven forbid they turn out to be the next David Ortiz!).

Like mikelink said, it's not trading for the sake of trading veterans. They need to be good trades that fit into a plan.

[Dodecahedron]

The author is correct -- any of these players could be traded.  

However, the free agent class this year is very good.

It's also fair to say that the Terry Ryan approach of selling everything when something doesn't go right is not going to be popular.

[farmerguychris]

I wouldn't sell any of them (except maybe Kepler).  If we do - then we are obviously looking at a full rebuild.  We can't simply reload and act like we're going to be competitive if we simply trade for yet more prospects.

[Cody Christie]

Just jumping in to clarify a few things.

Rogers: It was likely a tough decision for the Twins this season to go to arbitration with him. His cost will be even greater next season. He was nearly traded at this deadline. Other teams will be interested in adding him this winter and his market might be even bigger at that time. 

Buxton: According to reports, the Twins made their offer and Buxton declined the deal. The team said if Buxton turned down that deal that they would look to deal him at the deadline or this winter. 

Donaldson: The team signed Donaldson to take advantage of the first two years of the contract. Like I mention in the piece, it is going to take the right team and the right deal to get it done, but it seems likely for the Twins to want to move on from Donaldson. 

Kepler: Because of his years of team control, he might be able to garner the biggest return package out of this group. There isn't a rush to trade him, but a team looking for a left-handed bat might be willing to pay the right price. 

It's going to be tough for Minnesota to contend in 2022 especially with the current state of the starting staff. These trades can allow the team to accumulate more prospect capital to add more to the system or to bulk up for a trade for other starting pitching. 

[chpettit19]

13 hours ago, Hheimer said:

Before trading Buxton the Twins should negotiate in good faith with him over the winter. Hell put him LF before he can prove he can stop hitting in walls full speed. He finally proved himself at the plate this year! 

There are more walls in LF than CF so if your goal is for him to avoid walls you should keep him in CF.

[South Dakota Tom]

These articles are interesting, but incomplete. We could trade 100+ different players, if you include minor leaguers.

The more interesting exercise is to assess where players fit in to a global plan for the team, and I'm talking specifically about 2022, since this season should only be used for audition purposes from here on out.

My global plan keeps Buxton, for life or something close to it. My global plan says we need starting pitching, relief pitching, a shortstop, and the rest would be hopeful "upgrades" but more likely "bounce-backs."

We can run around the diamond, but I like our catching depth and upside; I think Kiriloff is the first baseman of the future, so Sano comes into play (I believe he's our DH next year, since his resurgence is one of those stars you cling to and just dumping him when he's at his lowest value seems shortsighted); 2b is Polanco; 3b is JD, but in my optimistic future, it's Miranda and we use JD's salary for upgrades elsewhere. SS is Martin or Polanco with the other - or Miranda or Arraez - at 2b, but the position most ripe for a FA (Semien, Story, Baez, don't think LA is going to be outbid for Seager, or Correa from Houston) - here we also have to consider that our #1 and 2 prospects still have "SS" after their names, even if that designation has a multiple-position slash as well,

Buxton, Kepler, Larnach, 4th OF (Celestino, Refsnyder, Garlick?).  Rooker is a backup DH, who we might have to risk losing as there isn't room for him on the active roster.

Starting pitching/relief pitching.  Maeda, resign Big Mike, Ryan?, Balazovic?, Winder?, Ober?  I feel like the rest of them lack the stuff or are too far away yet.  The one guy I would like to add on a long-term deal is Rodon - I like guys who have always had the stuff, and are now just figuring it out.

Relief corps - I have already gone on too long, so I'll let someone else put that together.  I think there's enough in the system, if we keep Rogers and add at least one young controllable power arm from outside the system and fill the rest with the AA/AAA arms that have been oft-mentioned for call-ups this year or starters who don't make the cut.

Maybe "what does it look like?" seems just a happier exercise than "who do we dump?"

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, Cody Christie said:

Just jumping in to clarify a few things.

Rogers: It was likely a tough decision for the Twins this season to go to arbitration with him. His cost will be even greater next season. He was nearly traded at this deadline. Other teams will be interested in adding him this winter and his market might be even bigger at that time. 

Buxton: According to reports, the Twins made their offer and Buxton declined the deal. The team said if Buxton turned down that deal that they would look to deal him at the deadline or this winter. 

Donaldson: The team signed Donaldson to take advantage of the first two years of the contract. Like I mention in the piece, it is going to take the right team and the right deal to get it done, but it seems likely for the Twins to want to move on from Donaldson. 

Kepler: Because of his years of team control, he might be able to garner the biggest return package out of this group. There isn't a rush to trade him, but a team looking for a left-handed bat might be willing to pay the right price. 

It's going to be tough for Minnesota to contend in 2022 especially with the current state of the starting staff. These trades can allow the team to accumulate more prospect capital to add more to the system or to bulk up for a trade for other starting pitching. 

No doubt any ONE of these players could get traded.  IDK but it's possible some people are interpreting this as they should ALL be traded.  It's reasonable that a scenario would present itself leading to one of them being traded.

[jmlease1]

I'm for dealing some of these guys if it nets us Trevor Story, whom we sign to a nice extension.  

But I still have hope that we come to an agreement on Buxton. Dealing Donaldson is mostly about opening up 3B for Miranda while shedding his contract for me.

Kepler, ah Max Kepler. I like him a lot. But 2019 is looking like a Brady Anderson anomaly year to me, and I do think Larnach & Kirilloff are going to be able to provide the lefty pop in the corners, so if Buxton doesn't go I think you can explore moving Kepler. But I'm not sure how interested the twins are in that one and might like him as the 4th OF?

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s actually Twins Minor League Daily. The major league team has been dismissed until 2024 around here lately. 

Aaron Gleeman tweeted tonight the Twins are 3-43 allowing more than 5 runs, 42-20 allowing less than 5 runs. Dismantling the offense doesn’t sound like a winning strategy to me. 

That said... the Twins feel very much like a "Minnesota" team who plays up to or down to the level of their competition so frequently. If an opposing team lights them up, they'll score a bunch of runs, but if a Twins starter is throwing a gem, the hitters all have the sun in their eyes. Maybe a great start from a Twins pitcher is so rare the batters just get mesmerized by the special event?

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm for dealing some of these guys if it nets us Trevor Story, whom we sign to a nice extension.  

But I still have hope that we come to an agreement on Buxton. Dealing Donaldson is mostly about opening up 3B for Miranda while shedding his contract for me.

Kepler, ah Max Kepler. I like him a lot. But 2019 is looking like a Brady Anderson anomaly year to me, and I do think Larnach & Kirilloff are going to be able to provide the lefty pop in the corners, so if Buxton doesn't go I think you can explore moving Kepler. But I'm not sure how interested the twins are in that one and might like him as the 4th OF?

Story will be a free agent so we wouldn't have to trade anyone to get him. Just sign him to a deal.

[chpettit19]

I don't trade any of these guys. Cot's Baseball Contracts have the Twins at about $68M of payroll next year with predicted arb raises. That's not very much.

They can still run out these position players: C- Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt 1B- Kirilloff/Sano/Rooker 2B-Polanco/Arraez/Miranda/Gordon 3B-JD/Arraez/Miranda SS-(Polanco/Gordon/Lewis/Martin) LF-Larnach/Rooker CF-Buxton/Kepler RF-Kepler/Larnach/Rooker

That's a playoff caliber setup. I'd like to see them bring in a SS, but would be ok with Polanco moving back there if they can really bolster the pitching. There's solid depth there, but not enough that I think you can survive trading away any of the 3 guys suggested in this article. Kepler never became the all-star we'd hoped, but he's an above average defender in right who can fill in in CF and is more than good enough to hit 6-9 on a playoff team.

The pitching is the problem. Trading away your 1 reliable bullpen arm doesn't help the retooling situation. Cot's seems to have accurate information so I have no reason to doubt their $68M claim. If that's the case I'd say the Twins have (or at least should have) $70M to spend this offseason to fill in the pitching around Maeda and Rodgers. They need a lot of arms, but with the prospects coming and 70M they should be able to field a competitive staff. And pairing that with the offense they have they should be able to give the White Sox a scare next year.

It's felt like we've had an abundance of offensive depth lately, but I don't think that's really the case anymore. There will be injuries. Every team faces them. Kirilloff is our 1B moving forward. He can fill in the corner OF spots, but then you have to fill his 1B role (Sano and Rooker are fighting for a DH role to me). I don't think we have an abundance anywhere to trade from. But I think they have the depth to be competitive and the payroll space to rebuild the staff quickly.

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Just jumping in to clarify a few things.

Buxton: According to reports, the Twins made their offer and Buxton declined the deal. The team said if Buxton turned down that deal that they would look to deal him at the deadline or this winter. 

Such clarity. Never. Never ever. Never have two sides changed their position in negotiations and done something different than they have once stated. Never. Thanks for the clarification.

[TopGunn#22]

I'm not sure sure what it would take for the Twins to sign someone like Carlos Rodon, and I'm sure the White Sox would eventually out-bid us to make sure we wouldn't steal him, but Rodon has already put together a season THIS YEAR that surpasses anything Berrios has done.  What Jose has going for him is durability (this is the first time Rodon has been healthy this late into a season).  The fact is, Berrios is gone.  The Twins, if they HOPE to be competitive must find a top of the rotation replacement.  This offseason!!  We got 2 excellent prospects for Jose, but the Pohlad's have to realize that following this year's disappointing season, they will lose large chunks of their fan base if this team stinks again next year.  I look at 2022 as a make or break season for the current FO as well as Rocco.  If they have another season like THIS ONE they will/should all be replaced.