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How confident are you in the FO to turn this around?


cHawk

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2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

 

The effect for Twins fans who watched the team was that the team was utterly playing below expectations, that nothing worked. It was a system failure. Again. The six game winning streak at the end of the season, after it was all done and we just ruined our draft position, was icing on the cake we had to sit through. Your opinion may be different. I don't care. This FO inherited a great system and a great nucleus, threw the white flag on a playoff team in 2017, mucked everything up in 2018 (including getting taken in several trades), gave us one great season (2019) and another TSF this season. They've relied too much on the Dobnaks, Smeltzers, Jaxs of the world that makes me think they have no idea on how to build starting pitching - although that might be Falvey's end game. Maybe he just sees a bunch of 5 pitcher games as the future of baseball.

Great nucleus? Yeah, nothing screams great nucleus like a 103 loss team. They were the envy of the league for sure. We'll agree to disagree.

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15 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Right....I was told over and over that they could draft a bunch of great hitters then deal them for pitchers.....

I mean, I really like the Berrios trade, but that guy might not have a position either.....

He has a position, it just may not be a great fit for Minnesota.

But let's not confuse Rooker with Martin. Rooker has no position, Martin maybe isn't a shortstop. Grand Canyon-sized difference there, for sure.

And while the front office hasn't done themselves any favors by drafting bat-first players, the Ryan regime left them in a bad spot defensively. Kirilloff is decent defensively but at first base, where no one cares much. Arraez is walking wounded. Then there's Sano. Hell, even the likes of Miranda squeeze the corner spots more and they're all products of the previous front office.

And this is why it's so damned hard to judge a front office in four seasons, doubly so when the cluster**** of 2020 is plopped in the middle. This front office has done themselves so few favors but where does their failure start and the previous regime's failures end? It's bloody hard to say but there sure is a lot of failure going around right now.

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4 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

The effect for Twins fans who watched the team was that the team was utterly playing below expectations, that nothing worked. It was a system failure. Again. 

That seems hyperbolic. It was a, "total system failure" in 2016 because not only was the team's record abysmal, but the drafting and development process had produced virtually nothing tangible from a vaunted core of players and draft picks. Plus, the team was at least a decade behind every other organization in the league analytically. 2018 was a disappointment, no doubt about that, but it wasn't as if the 2017 team cruised to a division title. They squeaked into the second wild card spot with 85 wins, in what was a very weak division.

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I know sports are very much a "what have you done for me lately" arena, but things are getting a little out of control I think. Falvey and Levine took over a team with a 36.4% win%. That's really bad. They have since gone on to build teams that have won 52.75% of their games. This season has been a complete disaster without a doubt (and they still have a better than .500 overall record as a FO!). But can we stop acting like they've done nothing successful in their 4 previous years? Yes, they hit a ton of HRs in 2019, why do they not get credit for building that team? And that team had the 9th best ERA in baseball. So do they not get credit for that?

I'm not sold on this FO. I'm 50/50 on whether they can turn this around. I didn't like the Shoemaker signing, but nobody expected him to be the worst pitcher in baseball (not a difference maker, but not a season ruiner). I didn't mind Happ and liked Colome. Both of those guys had real track records of success and nobody expected them to completely forget how to pitch (regression, yes, DFA level production, no). That makes me question their, and the coaching staff's, approach to pitching adjustments. Are they too "one size fits all?" It's starting to feel like it. The prospect arms need to start showing up and showing they can man spots in the rotation and pen soon or it's time for Falvine to go.

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4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

He has a position, it just may not be a great fit for Minnesota.

But let's not confuse Rooker with Martin. Rooker has no position, Martin maybe isn't a shortstop. Grand Canyon-sized difference there, for sure.

And while the front office hasn't done themselves any favors by drafting bat-first players, the Ryan regime left them in a bad spot defensively. Kirilloff is decent defensively but at first base, where no one cares much. Arraez is walking wounded. Then there's Sano. Hell, even the likes of Miranda squeeze the corner spots more and they're all products of the previous front office.

And this is why it's so damned hard to judge a front office in four seasons, doubly so when the cluster**** of 2020 is plopped in the middle. This front office has done themselves so few favors but where does their failure start and the previous regime's failures end? It's bloody hard to say but there sure is a lot of failure going around right now.

This might be what I'm watching for most during this offseason.  How do they figure out how the new pieces fit now that Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker have emerged.  They've got some of the old core hanging on in RF and 1B and pieces of the next group coming up needing to play somewhere.  I think this is an inherent problem with drafting bat-first guys; how do the pieces fit?  As a guy that values run prevention, the approach seems a bit too incoherent for my liking.  But that is the bed they made, now they've got to lay in it.

The other are is middle infield.  I really don't want them moving Polanco back to SS.  But I'd also like to keep Arraez's bat in the lineup, but don't know where to play him if 2B is filled.  The super-utility role doesn't really fit him all that well either.  Just one thing on my list of things that drives me nuts about how baseball has evolved, I guess.

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3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

He has a position, it just may not be a great fit for Minnesota.

But let's not confuse Rooker with Martin. Rooker has no position, Martin maybe isn't a shortstop. Grand Canyon-sized difference there, for sure.

And while the front office hasn't done themselves any favors by drafting bat-first players, the Ryan regime left them in a bad spot defensively. Kirilloff is decent defensively but at first base, where no one cares much. Arraez is walking wounded. Then there's Sano. Hell, even the likes of Miranda squeeze the corner spots more and they're all products of the previous front office.

And this is why it's so damned hard to judge a front office in four seasons, doubly so when the cluster**** of 2020 is plopped in the middle. This front office has done themselves so few favors but where does their failure start and the previous regime's failures end? It's bloody hard to say but there sure is a lot of failure going around right now.

They inherited a top 10 farm system and a team full of young former top 100 prospects. They had the #1 pick and a supplemental first. Three picks in the top 37! And ownership who said "this time we mean it when we want to increase payroll"*

They didn't develop the players, didn't properly value their own internal talent, didn't properly value other teams players. Entering this year, their best pitching prospect was still acquired by the previous regime. Entering this year, their best hitting prospect was still acquired by the previous regime. We still don't have that promised pitching pipeline. But posters are still blaming Ryan? Good grief.

 

*Pohlads suck, common problem for all of our front offices.

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11 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

They inherited a top 10 farm system and a team full of young former top 100 prospects. They had the #1 pick and a supplemental first. Three picks in the top 37! And ownership who said "this time we mean it when we want to increase payroll"*

They didn't develop the players, didn't properly value their own internal talent, didn't properly value other teams players. Entering this year, their best pitching prospect was still acquired by the previous regime. Entering this year, their best hitting prospect was still acquired by the previous regime. We still don't have that promised pitching pipeline. But posters are still blaming Ryan? Good grief.

*Pohlads suck, common problem for all of our front offices.

That "top 10" system was almost entirely bat-driven, which is part of the reason we're still seeing the results in Minnesota we are today.

The previous front office literally threw away three top six picks in a row, two on *badly needed* pitching. I mean, they didn't just fail in their picks, they failed in epic fashion, with two top five picks never even playing in Minnesota, ONE OF THEM OUT OF COLLEGE. How is that even possible? Let's stop pretending like they handed this front office a dozen golden-plated roses.

Never mind that the center piece of that farm system - the piece that cemented the system as top ten - can't play more than 60 games a season.

Has this front office failed? Yes, absolutely. They're doing a piss-poor job of evaluating their own talent and that alone has cost the 2021 team several wins. They can't develop a reliever, which is absurd at this point.

But you''re sugar-coating the colossal failures of a front office that was literally fired because they made so many blunders.

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6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 But can we stop acting like they've done nothing successful in their 4 previous years? Yes, they hit a ton of HRs in 2019, why do they not get credit for building that team? And that team had the 9th best ERA in baseball. So do they not get credit for that?

 

You know, I think this is a very fair question. My opinion is that most of the success of 2019 goes to the previous regime, not this one. The players who were acquired and developed by the prior regime accounted for 28 WAR for the 2019 season. Players acquired from this FO only acquired 15 WAR.* That nucleus of Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc was going to win no matter who the FO or manager was. The new FO's main job was to supplement that team and keep that window of contention open longer. I don't think they managed that.

Part of this just goes to what you expected from that core, how much a system affects player development in the majors v. minors.

Lastly, I've pointed out several things that this FO did right. I liked both the Cruz and Donaldson signings. The Berrios trade looks great. The Odo trade was solid and Larnich and Jeffers look like solid MLers. It doesn't have to be all or none but at this point, the FO has had more misses - and, maybe more importantly, failed to have a concrete plan - that makes me think that they are't doing well.

 

 

* I'm only looking at players who acquired at least 1 WAR.

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13 minutes ago, wsnydes said:

 How do they figure out how the new pieces fit now that Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker have emerged. 

 

I don't like being that guy, but have those 3 really emerged? IMO the only one of them that might be considered a lock to start next season is Kirilloff and that is only if he is 100% healthy and hitting in spring training. If Larnach doesn't improve the rest of the year, I am not sure how you can justify him being a opening day starter next year.

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2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't like being that guy, but have those 3 really emerged? IMO the only one of them that might be considered a lock to start next season is Kirilloff and that is only if he is 100% healthy and hitting in spring training. If Larnach doesn't improve the rest of the year, I am not sure how you can justify him being a opening day starter next year.

I think that's a fair question but  you also have to trust your plan, such as it is. Larnach was expected to be a cornerstone bat for the Twins. He's 24. The Twins just have to hope he makes the adjustments to become a Cuddyer-like player. I don't think they should yank him in and out of the lineup. Let him play.

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1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't like being that guy, but have those 3 really emerged? IMO the only one of them that might be considered a lock to start next season is Kirilloff and that is only if he is 100% healthy and hitting in spring training. If Larnach doesn't improve the rest of the year, I am not sure how you can justify him being a opening day starter next year.

That's fair, perhaps not really the right word.  I don't see that they have anything left to prove in the minors, so it doesn't really serve much purpose to leave them there and let Kepler and Sano continue to circle the drain.  The direction is clearly to start new, so to me, the only reasonable approach is to move forward by allowing the new crop to start to push out the old.

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17 hours ago, cHawk said:

I’m not going to make this a poll, rather, a short answer.

This season has been awful, and it has seen the Twins deal Jose Berrios, probably the only pitcher the Twins have managed to develop in a while. He was dealt for two Top 100 Prospects.

After this season’s trade deadline, the Twins find themselves in a position where they will need to develop their pieces to fill in spots on the major league team.

Question: How confident are you in this FO and Coaching Staff to develop these prospects to their fullest?

These are two very different questions:

How confident are you in the FO to turn this around?
How confident are you in this FO and Coaching Staff to develop these prospects to their fullest?

I am confident that this FO can "turn this around" -- meaning they can field a competitive team again and do everything other Twins teams have been able to do in the past twenty years.  There is typically only one team to beat in this division in any year, after all.

I'm not confident that this FO can get magic out of its prospects.

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10 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

You know, I think this is a very fair question. My opinion is that most of the success of 2019 goes to the previous regime, not this one. The players who were acquired and developed by the prior regime accounted for 28 WAR for the 2019 season. Players acquired from this FO only acquired 15 WAR.* That nucleus of Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc was going to win no matter who the FO or manager was. The new FO's main job was to supplement that team and keep that window of contention open longer. I don't think they managed that.

Part of this just goes to what you expected from that core, how much a system affects player development in the majors v. minors.

Lastly, I've pointed out several things that this FO did right. I liked both the Cruz and Donaldson signings. The Berrios trade looks great. The Odo trade was solid and Larnich and Jeffers look like solid MLers. It doesn't have to be all or none but at this point, the FO has had more misses - and, maybe more importantly, failed to have a concrete plan - that makes me think that they are't doing well.

 

 

* I'm only looking at players who acquired at least 1 WAR.

That core was going to win no matter what? Like in 2021 when Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco are/were all on the team? And in 2016 when they were all on the team? Your argument now becomes that this FO is so bad that they managed to lose with a core that had no chance of losing.

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13 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

You know, I think this is a very fair question. My opinion is that most of the success of 2019 goes to the previous regime, not this one. The players who were acquired and developed by the prior regime accounted for 28 WAR for the 2019 season. Players acquired from this FO only acquired 15 WAR.* That nucleus of Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, etc was going to win no matter who the FO or manager was. The new FO's main job was to supplement that team and keep that window of contention open longer. I don't think they managed that.

 

You say that as if that very nucleus isn't still intact and in the midst of the current season! :)

Edit: ninja'd by @chpettit19.  Though, I'm a bit more tongue-in-cheek! :)

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Given that the previous FO was given effectively 20 years (1994-2016) to not produce a championship I'm surprised that people seriously think this FO is going to be wholesale canned after 5 years with one of those years being during a pandemic. Even though it is a different set of people I believe loyalty is still one of the basic tenets of the Twins organization as evidenced by how they treated their employees during the pandemic.


I don't doubt that there will be changes on an individual basis but it is silly to think they'll throw out the entire regime because they haven't produced a playoff win or they haven't produced a top line starter in the 5 years they've been here (how many other organizations have produced a top line starter in the last 5 years? It's hard to do.) My suspicion is they'd love to be similar to Tampa Bay as an organization but that means they'd have to generate talent and trade away expensive quality players. Which is going to be painful sometimes. I just don't see the organization wanting to start over with another FO any time soon.

 

Falvey has, imo, more or less corrected the direction of this organization. It absolutely is not perfect and there will be more corrections going forward both organizationally and personnel-wise. But where we were 5 years ago vs where we are today is markedly different (again, imo, for the much better). Yes, it's been a bit of a roller-coaster and this year especially has been really disappointing on all fronts but no way would I want to go back to what it was before this FO.

 

My biggest question has been about roster construction and in a standard organization that would fall on the shoulders of the GM, in this case Levine. But in this FO, it's a bit murky as to who is ultimately responsible for it.

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14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That "top 10" system was almost entirely bat-driven, which is part of the reason we're still seeing the results in Minnesota we are today.

My biggest issue with the FO (continuing to employ Rocco), they were given Gonsalves (2 time top 100 prospect), Jay (1 time top 100 prospect), Stewart (2 time top 100 prospect), Romero (1 time top 100 prospect), Berrios (3 time top 100 prospect), Kyle Gibson (2/3 time top 100 prospect), Graterol (2 time top 100 prospect) ,Balazovic (1 time top 100 prospect)

and currently out of that group they have Maeda, Duran (1 time top 100 prospect), Balazovic (1 time top 100 prospect), Simeon Woods-Richardson (2 time top 100 prospect)

 

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2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

That core was going to win no matter what? Like in 2021 when Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Kepler, and Polanco are/were all on the team? And in 2016 when they were all on the team? Your argument now becomes that this FO is so bad that they managed to lose with a core that had no chance of losing.

Yeah, that core was going to win. They nearly made the playoffs in 2015, made it in 2017, 2019, 2020. (We started to see the core leave after 2020 in Rosario and May).

2016 and 2021 are consensus TSF years, apparently.

Even this year, the bats are still good enough to be a playoff team. Pitching was a disaster. My opinion is that the FO didn't do enough to supplement that core or to keep the window open long enough.

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1 minute ago, kenbuddha said:

Given that the previous FO was given effectively 20 years (1994-2016) to not produce a championship I'm surprised that people seriously think this FO is going to be wholesale canned after 5 years with one of those years being during a pandemic. Even though it is a different set of people I believe loyalty is still one of the basic tenets of the Twins organization as evidenced by how they treated their employees during the pandemic.


I don't doubt that there will be changes on an individual basis but it is silly to think they'll throw out the entire regime because they haven't produced a playoff win or they haven't produced a top line starter in the 5 years they've been here (how many other organizations have produced a top line starter in the last 5 years? It's hard to do.) My suspicion is they'd love to be similar to Tampa Bay as an organization but that means they'd have to generate talent and trade away expensive quality players. Which is going to be painful sometimes. I just don't see the organization wanting to start over with another FO any time soon.

 

Falvey has, imo, more or less corrected the direction of this organization. It absolutely is not perfect and there will be more corrections going forward both organizationally and personnel-wise. But where we were 5 years ago vs where we are today is markedly different (again, imo, for the much better). Yes, it's been a bit of a roller-coaster and this year especially has been really disappointing on all fronts but no way would I want to go back to what it was before this FO.

 

My biggest question has been about roster construction and in a standard organization that would fall on the shoulders of the GM, in this case Levine. But in this FO, it's a bit murky as to who is ultimately responsible for it.

I agree with this for the most part.  I would add that the manager has not done the FO any favors in the way he manages games and puts together a lineup.  It has to be frustrating to build a team only for the game manager to not know what to do.  This is like when the Vikings traded everything they could for Herschel Walker, only to have the the head coach not know how to use him.

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8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My biggest issue with the FO (continuing to employ Rocco), they were given Gonsalves (2 time top 100 prospect), Jay (1 time top 100 prospect), Stewart (2 time top 100 prospect), Romero (1 time top 100 prospect), Berrios (3 time top 100 prospect), Kyle Gibson (2/3 time top 100 prospect), Graterol (2 time top 100 prospect) ,Balazovic (1 time top 100 prospect)

and currently out of that group they have Maeda, Duran (1 time top 100 prospect), Balazovic (1 time top 100 prospect), Simeon Woods-Richardson (2 time top 100 prospect)

Stewart and Jay were "top 100" due to draft position and both had failed before this front office was hired. They were terrible draft picks and that's not the fault of this front office.

Calling Gonsalves a "top 100" is stretching the definition a bit. He never made a few top 100 lists and BA put him 99 and 97 in consecutive seasons.

Fernando Romero? You mean the guy who couldn't get into the country for an entire season and torpedoed his own career?

This front office actually received a really good performance from Gibson before he became ill and then entered free agency.

Graterol turned into a reliever and was moved for a nice piece in Maeda.

Berríos improved under this front office and was traded for a really nice package.

Your list looks a little bit different once we break it down piece by piece, doesn't it?

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6 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I agree with this for the most part.  I would add that the manager has not done the FO any favors in the way he manages games and puts together a lineup.  It has to be frustrating to build a team only for the game manager to not know what to do.  This is like when the Vikings traded everything they could for Herschel Walker, only to have the the head coach not know how to use him.

100 percent guarantee the FO and manager have planned the lineup together. 100 percent.

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4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My biggest issue with the FO (continuing to employ Rocco), they were given Gonsalves (2 time top 100 prospect), Jay (1 time top 100 prospect), Stewart (2 time top 100 prospect), Romero (1 time top 100 prospect), Berrios (3 time top 100 prospect), Kyle Gibson (2/3 time top 100 prospect), Graterol (2 time top 100 prospect) ,Balazovic (1 time top 100 prospect)

and currently out of that group they have Maeda, Duran (1 time top 100 prospect), Balazovic (1 time top 100 prospect), Simeon Woods-Richardson (2 time top 100 prospect)

 

I'd have a problem with that if Gonsalves, Jay, Stewart and Romero had gone on to do great, or even good, things for another organization. So far it hasn't happened.

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3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

100 percent guarantee the FO and manager have planned the lineup together. 100 percent.

I guarantee the opposite.  Lineup cards are filled out everyday.  Is the front office dictating that Sano play every day, and bat in the middle of the order?  In-game decisions (usually pitching related) are made in the moment.  There is a 0% chance Baldelli is asking for help from his bosses before making these decisions.

You misunderstood what I was saying, I can take the blame for that.

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8 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, that core was going to win. They nearly made the playoffs in 2015, made it in 2017, 2019, 2020. (We started to see the core leave after 2020 in Rosario and May).

2016 and 2021 are consensus TSF years, apparently.

Even this year, the bats are still good enough to be a playoff team. Pitching was a disaster. My opinion is that the FO didn't do enough to supplement that core or to keep the window open long enough.

Not sure that I agree with the last paragraph in it's entirety, but definitely agree with the last sentence.  That said, they did build good staffs in 2019 and 2020.  This season clearly didn't work out though.

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1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, that core was going to win. They nearly made the playoffs in 2015, made it in 2017, 2019, 2020. (We started to see the core leave after 2020 in Rosario and May).

2016 and 2021 are consensus TSF years, apparently.

Even this year, the bats are still good enough to be a playoff team. Pitching was a disaster. My opinion is that the FO didn't do enough to supplement that core or to keep the window open long enough.

Eddie Rosario and his 85 wRC+ and 85 OPS+ leaving is what is destroying this unbeatable core? Agreed on May leaving. I didn't like that decision. Also agree the FO did not supplement well enough this offseason. That's really what I'm getting at. You're saying the window is closed because they had every one of their FA pitchers forget how to pitch this year and thus they need to be fired, but you're giving them no credit for supplementing the core in 2017, 2019, and 2020. Especially 2019 and 2020 when they won 60+% of their games and had team ERAs that ranked 9th and 4th in all of baseball. But now that the wheels completely fell off in a way drastically worse than anyone would have predicted they've been complete failures? The prospects need to start performing to end this year and during next year. I've said that. That's the real test of the FO. But what if 2 of their 10-12 arms that will debut in the next calendar year perform and become legit starters? You've fired the FO and now a new regime in place even though the pitching pipeline has started to show results.

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1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

I guarantee the opposite.  Lineup cards are filled out everyday.  In-game decisions are made in the moment.  There is a 0% chance Baldelli is asking for help from his bosses before making these decisions.

You misunderstood what I was saying, I can take the blame for that.

He's not asking for help. It's how the game is run today. Lineups, situational decisions, everything is discussed between the field staff and front office. 

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2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not asking for help. It's how the game is run today. Lineups, situational decisions, everything is discussed between the field staff and front office. 

Let me rephrase again, then.  There is a 0% chance he is asking for approval before making these decisions.  

Better?

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3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Eddie Rosario and his 85 wRC+ and 85 OPS+ leaving is what is destroying this unbeatable core? Agreed on May leaving. I didn't like that decision. Also agree the FO did not supplement well enough this offseason. That's really what I'm getting at. You're saying the window is closed because they had every one of their FA pitchers forget how to pitch this year and thus they need to be fired, but you're giving them no credit for supplementing the core in 2017, 2019, and 2020. Especially 2019 and 2020 when they won 60+% of their games and had team ERAs that ranked 9th and 4th in all of baseball. But now that the wheels completely fell off in a way drastically worse than anyone would have predicted they've been complete failures? The prospects need to start performing to end this year and during next year. I've said that. That's the real test of the FO. But what if 2 of their 10-12 arms that will debut in the next calendar year perform and become legit starters? You've fired the FO and now a new regime in place even though the pitching pipeline has started to show results.

I've given this FO credit even in this thread but they had a job to do and they failed at it. Maybe they'll get better, maybe they won't. They were clearly hired to replicate what the Twins did from  2001-2010 where they kept window of contention constantly open and only had one losing season while moving from one core to another.

I mentioned Rosario and May not because we necessarily miss them (replacing Rosario with Larnich was a 100% Terry Ryan move) but that the core they inherited is getting old and the FO needs to make the right move to keep the window open. Our pitching staff is the oldest staff in the league and, by far, the worst. That's amazing.

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