5 Free Agent Options for the Minnesota Twins to Replace José Berríos

[Mike Vendsel]

1 hour ago, MGM4706 said:

Crazy article. The Twins are NOT going to pay the younger Pitchers on your list who are in the midst of their best seasons just like they wouldn't pay Berrios! Why even talk about those guys? They are going to try Farm guys who are not ready or they will get broken down Tommy  John guys and hope to revive them. That's the Twins way, Save a Buck is number one rule. We all know that! Stop dreaming.

This is dead on.

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, twinkiesfan11 said:

I'm not criticizing the FO for trading Berrios, if my post came off that way it was either unintentional or you're reading into something that isn't there. Check my posts from last week, I was in favor of trading Berrios, Buxton, Donaldson, Maeda and anyone else that could return value. 

I don't see any way this team is competitive in 2022 with or without Berrios and all the others that were or could have been traded. With that in mind I don't see the point in signing a big ticket free agent pitcher as this article suggests. Maeda and Pineda should provide some stability and possible trade assets at the 2022 deadline, then roll with the prospects to see what you have. I don't see competitive baseball in 2023 being out of the question which would make a big FA signing next offseason make more sense. Berrios would be a great target both from a productivity and feel good/fan perspective. 

They probably aren't....but I'm a fan of adding players the year before you are competitive, to increase the likelihood you are. Adding 1-2 legit starting pitchers, which they can afford, makes them better for 2023 also.

I'd like a SS and a SP more than 2 SP.....

[twinkiesfan11]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They probably aren't....but I'm a fan of adding players the year before you are competitive, to increase the likelihood you are. Adding 1-2 legit starting pitchers, which they can afford, makes them better for 2023 also.

I'd like a SS and a SP more than 2 SP.....

Couldn’t agree more

[yeahyabetcha]

I suspect these 5 will all cost more than the Twins should invest.  What sense does it make anyways to spend top dollar on a guy that pitches 5 innings every 5 days?  Spend the money on the bullpen instead.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If I'm the Twins owner I'm asking my FO to sign people for no more than 2 years. For the Twins to be successful they need to develop their own pitching. Plain and simple. They can't afford top end FA arms on long term deals so are paying for their decline. Donaldson has 2 years left on his big deal. This offseason I'm pushing for the FO to sign pitchers to 1 or 2 year deals. If they can get a Scherzer/Verlander type for big money on a short deal I'm all for it. Not paying any of these guys on long term deals as I don't think any will be good enough for the 20M+ they likely demand.

I say this is what I'd do as the Twins owner, because 2 years is all the more leash I'd give Falvine. They need to develop top end starters. They now have 10-12 guys who should be up next year and establishing themselves by 2023. If they haven't turned anyone into a #1-2 starter they're out. They were hired to develop a pitching pipeline and it's time to see it or find someone who can do it. So I want vets on big $, short term deals to front the rotation while the young guys get their chances. Then after 2023 if the pitching pipeline isn't flowing somebody else gets to come in and take over a roster with almost no guaranteed money and make their changes.

I know many of you have no desire to see Falvine here for 2 more years, but their arms are set to start debuting this year and next. Doesn't make sense to me to fire them as their arms start showing up. They had top 10 staffs in 2019 and 2020 so I think they get the chance to see their prospects through. If they all flop, it's over, but if they show up and perform Falvine gets to stick around.

I agree with you.  They have about 10 guys that they have drafted or traded for that have a chance to be mid rotation starter types (i.e. throw hard enough, Have above average secondary's, Have had minor league success).  If they can't get that pitching to work at the MLB level time to find guys with a better idea how to accomplish that goal.  

Once they have two or three solid young pitchers they should be set for another 3 to 4 year window and if they keep the pitching pipeline going maybe sustainable good to great seasons. That young pitching needs to show up though.  If it doesn't the whole thing falls apart.  Just like we are now talking about trying to get some the of best FA starting pitchers the Twins never pull off those deals.  They need to develop it and or trade for it.  They won't buy it by outbidding other teams.

No idea if Ryan, Winder and Balazovich are up to the challenge next year but they seem like the most ready for 2022.  Hoping Ober and Jax can also be serviceable and maybe Dobnak can return to his better self.  They have young pitching options they just need to work out.

[Trov]

There is going to be a lot of FA pitchers on market this year, which will help getting a good one for a discount possibly.  I would like a push for someone as asking our rookies to be 2 or 3 of our normal starting 5 will be difficult. 

[MABB1959]

Perhaps I am wrong but I heard players can have teams they can't be or do not want to be traded to in their contracts.  The way Berrios and Buxton can't wait to get out of here tells me some of the players mentioned in the article and comments might have the Twins on the "you can't trade me there".   First is that true?  If it is do you think many of the all-star type players have the Twins on their list?

[Heiny]

If the Twins want to win????  I think it would take two of these pitchers.  With our perceived strong minor league contingent as (much needed) depth, I would look at the Twins to be the far and away favorite in the Central.  This would be extremely expensive, and I think  a longshot to even get one, but,  winning the division would sure ease some of the sting.  Would also be more plausible if they could trade Donaldson in the off-season to lighten the load.  The dreaming starts already in early Aug? 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Perhaps I am wrong but I heard players can have teams they can't be or do not want to be traded to in their contracts.  The way Berrios and Buxton can't wait to get out of here tells me some of the players mentioned in the article and comments might have the Twins on the "you can't trade me there".   First is that true?  If it is do you think many of the all-star type players have the Twins on their list?

No trade lists are a thing, yes. Not sure where you're getting your info that Berrios and Buxton "can't wait to get out of here," though. Considering Berrios teared up when talking about leaving the Twins and both have said from day 1 they're more than willing to sign a long term deal here. There's a gigantic difference between wanting to test the market, not being willing to sign for less than what you feel your max market value is, not agreeing on a deal yet, and not wanting to play somewhere. Neither of them have ever said they don't want to play here or wouldn't be willing to resign here. Ever.

[tony&rodney]

Rodon would be a good pitcher to sign as a free agent. I propose, with no knowledge of Miami's wishes, a trade of Garver, Arraez, Kepler, and maybe some fill like Barnes and/or Smeltzer for Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer. I am not sure if Gausman or the others would be a good sign for the expected $100+ million fee. Rodon seems like he could pitch forever now that he is past surgery and rehab and flourishing this year with the Sox. The Twins need to sign a minimum of one decent pitcher, this we know.

[Fritzderkat]

I think the simple fact the Twins now are in this position tells me all I'll ever need to know about the Twins, and I've been following them for 20 years. In essence, yes, they've only had two pitchers during the entire time who the informed fan might regard as aces--two!--and now they're back to mining prospects again. Explains a lot, doesn't it?

[MABB1959]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

No trade lists are a thing, yes. Not sure where you're getting your info that Berrios and Buxton "can't wait to get out of here," though. Considering Berrios teared up when talking about leaving the Twins and both have said from day 1 they're more than willing to sign a long term deal here. There's a gigantic difference between wanting to test the market, not being willing to sign for less than what you feel your max market value is, not agreeing on a deal yet, and not wanting to play somewhere. Neither of them have ever said they don't want to play here or wouldn't be willing to resign here. Ever.

Of course they are going to say they want to stay or "act" sad to leave.  Buxton won't sign and Berrios made it clear he was going the free agent route.  That is where I get my information from.  If you were  high caliber player wouldn't you want to go to a team that has a chance at the WS more than every 30 years or wins more 1 playoff game in 10?  Also from my currently glass half empty view we are always one prospect away and when they finally go get a quality player they let them go for more prospects?

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Of course they are going to say they want to stay or "act" sad to leave.  Buxton won't sign and Berrios made it clear he was going the free agent route.  That is where I get my information from.  If you were  high caliber player wouldn't you want to go to a team that has a chance at the WS more than every 30 years or wins more 1 playoff game in 10?  Also from my currently glass half empty view we are always one prospect away and when they finally go get a quality player they let them go for more prospects?

Your argument is that Berrios faked tears after getting traded? To what gain? Wanting to hit the market isn't saying "I hate playing for the Twins and they're a trash organization." It's saying "I want the right to choose where I play and maximize my earning potential as well." Buxton not signing isn't him saying "I hate playing for the Twins and they're a trash organization." It's saying "we haven't found a contract that works for both of us yet so I haven't signed." Which, in fact, is exactly what he said. Your argument is Berrios faked tears simply to make fans happy (apparently) and that both Berrios and Buxton are liars.

Polanco is a high caliber player and he signed here. Does he not want to win and secretly hates it here and wants out, but isn't saying it? Donaldson is a former MVP and had multiple suitors, but chose the Twins. Does he not want to win and secretly hates it here and wants out, but isn't saying it? Nelson Cruz not only signed here once, but twice! Did he go into his late 30s saying he didn't want the chance to win a ring and would sign with the Twins knowing he had no chance of winning here? How about Rich Hill? Did he sign here last year with the intention of playing out his last year or 2 for teams with no chance to win? Why did MadBum sign with the DBacks? They're even worse than the Twins this year and he's a high caliber player who could've gone back to the Giants who are a top team this year. Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado signed with the Padres when they were terrible.

[Major League Ready]

48 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Of course they are going to say they want to stay or "act" sad to leave.  Buxton won't sign and Berrios made it clear he was going the free agent route.  That is where I get my information from.  If you were  high caliber player wouldn't you want to go to a team that has a chance at the WS more than every 30 years or wins more 1 playoff game in 10?  Also from my currently glass half empty view we are always one prospect away and when they finally go get a quality player they let them go for more prospects?

There are 15 teams with a 25+ year period since their last WS win.  I would add that the all things being equal we each team would win the WS every 30 years.  Unfortunately, all things are not equal and the teams with the highest revenue win more frequently.  It's just astounding that so many people have a hard time understanding that organizations with more revenue win a bidding war with far greater frequency.  How is this not blatantly obvious?  I guess all of the people complaining here that this a Twins specific problem live in $800K homes and drive $100K cars on an average income.  

One last note ... The Dodgers had gone 32 years before winning the WS last year.

[Squirrel]

8 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Nice interesting list.  Would love for the Twins to get one or more of them.  Very unlikely it will happen.  The Twins are going with their in house pitchers I believe.  Twins talk about significant pitching signings in the past but rarely deliver.  Unless of course the FA pitcher is coming off Tommy John surgery, hasnt pitched in a couple of years, or if he hasn't been released by several teams.  

Well ... Syndegaard is coming off Tommy John surgery ... sort of ... just sayin' that it's possible if TJ recoverers are our target!

[chopper0080]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because:

1. Berrios said he wanted to test FA.

2. Now they can sign a player of Berrios quality, have him here for more than just 1 year, and have two great prospects. Every team should do stuff like this. Every. Single. Team. 

I am not going to claim that I have specific inside information regarding Berrios, but I will share overall info regarding pro athletes and contract extensions/negotiations. If the offer is right and it is done prior to an expiring contract year or an arbitration year, players are consistently willing to take the money now vs later. It is when you quibble with them regarding their worth or fail to offer a quality dollar amount that they choose to bet on themselves.

 

I am confident in saying Berrios's agent either asked for a number or gave the Twins a number. I don't know if Berrios asked for 30 or if the Twins threw out a number what that was, but their reaction is why Berrios and his agent decided to put out there they would be testing free agency. My guess is the sides were not close. 

[chopper0080]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Your argument is that Berrios faked tears after getting traded? To what gain? Wanting to hit the market isn't saying "I hate playing for the Twins and they're a trash organization." It's saying "I want the right to choose where I play and maximize my earning potential as well." Buxton not signing isn't him saying "I hate playing for the Twins and they're a trash organization." It's saying "we haven't found a contract that works for both of us yet so I haven't signed." Which, in fact, is exactly what he said. Your argument is Berrios faked tears simply to make fans happy (apparently) and that both Berrios and Buxton are liars.

Polanco is a high caliber player and he signed here. Does he not want to win and secretly hates it here and wants out, but isn't saying it? Donaldson is a former MVP and had multiple suitors, but chose the Twins. Does he not want to win and secretly hates it here and wants out, but isn't saying it? Nelson Cruz not only signed here once, but twice! Did he go into his late 30s saying he didn't want the chance to win a ring and would sign with the Twins knowing he had no chance of winning here? How about Rich Hill? Did he sign here last year with the intention of playing out his last year or 2 for teams with no chance to win? Why did MadBum sign with the DBacks? They're even worse than the Twins this year and he's a high caliber player who could've gone back to the Giants who are a top team this year. Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado signed with the Padres when they were terrible.

In my experience, players tend to start with the dollar amount and then weigh the market and culture and competitiveness of their options. Also, professional athletes tend to like routine and familiarity which causes them to stay with their current team if all things are equal. 

[Nashvilletwin]

In 2022 you roll with Maeda and Big Mike plus the youngin’s. All things being equal a staff consisting of 5 solid #2-3s, each averaging about 5-6 innings with an era of about 4 is a winning staff if coupled with a lockdown pen.  
 

By 2023, we should have at least 3, maybe 4, starters from among our farm crew who fit that above description. Throw in one additional FA or trade or even Maeda and then spend the money on a lock down pen. You win with a lockdown pen. Get 5-6 innings of 2-4 run ball from your starters and get to the premier pen. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If I'm the Twins owner I'm asking my FO to sign people for no more than 2 years. 

I say this is what I'd do as the Twins owner, because 2 years is all the more leash I'd give Falvine. They need to develop top end starters. They now have 10-12 guys who should be up next year and establishing themselves by 2023. If they haven't turned anyone into a #1-2 starter they're out. They were hired to develop a pitching pipeline and it's time to see it or find someone who can do it. So I want vets on big $, short term deals to front the rotation while the young guys get their chances. Then after 2023 if the pitching pipeline isn't flowing somebody else gets to come in and take over a roster with almost no guaranteed money and make their changes.

That type of "flexibility," has produced a laundry list of failed FA starters and has contributed in large part to the current state of the rotation. I understand the plan, and it's ideal from a cost savings perspective, but who in the organization profiles as a true 1 or 2 right now? Maybe the Twins get lucky, and someone absolutely maxes out. I'm not caping for the FO here but the odds that anybody in this organization is a legitimate ace in 2 years are low. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Your argument is that Berrios faked tears after getting traded?...

Ever cry after the end of a bad relationship or when you moved out of a place you didn't necessarily like? Regardless of how Berrios felt about the Twins, I would have been really surprised if he wasn't moved emotionally about the relationship ending. There was a lot invested in his time with the Twins, even if the end is bittersweet. The tears don't mean much to me in regard to whether or not he actually wanted to stay with the Twins. 

I'm sure we'll hear rumors leak out about what the Twins were or were not offering as time ticks by. As it stands right now, I view this as Berrios' decision not to sign a deal which most fans would have considered reasonable based on the efforts to sign Buxton.

[bean5302]

33 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

In 2022 you roll with Maeda and Big Mike plus the youngin’s. All things being equal a staff consisting of 5 solid #2-3s, each averaging about 5-6 innings with an era of about 4 is a winning staff if coupled with a lockdown pen.  
 

By 2023, we should have at least 3, maybe 4, starters from among our farm crew who fit that above description. Throw in one additional FA or trade or even Maeda and then spend the money on a lock down pen. You win with a lockdown pen. Get 5-6 innings of 2-4 run ball from your starters and get to the premier pen. 

This result, in my opinion, would be utterly fantastic. I don't share your optimism the twins have 5 prospect starters who are all going to pitch to 3.25-4.00 ERAs or so over 175+ innings each by 2023. 

[h2oface]

Don't pay Berrios, but pay a stranger to replace him. I really don't like my team being full of strangers. Different strangers each year. Colome and Robles and Happ and Shoemaker. And all the others. That is one of the main reasons baseball is loosing fans. They don't even know their team, and the FOs don't treat them as people, just an asset. This is not a virtual fantasy game. This is real life. Their own union isn't helping. They have it organized for only a select few to get paid, and so many never get paid for the great seasons they have in their first 5 years while the CBA is set up to not pay them for perhaps the best seasons of their life. Then they become bad investments, and they are paying them for horrible future seasons. It is all screwed up.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Ever cry after the end of a bad relationship or when you moved out of a place you didn't necessarily like? Regardless of how Berrios felt about the Twins, I would have been really surprised if he wasn't moved emotionally about the relationship ending. There was a lot invested in his time with the Twins, even if the end is bittersweet. The tears don't mean much to me in regard to whether or not he actually wanted to stay with the Twins. 

I'm sure we'll hear rumors leak out about what the Twins were or were not offering as time ticks by. As it stands right now, I view this as Berrios' decision not to sign a deal which most fans would have considered reasonable based on the efforts to sign Buxton.

No, I can't say I've ever cried in either of those situations. But that's not really the point. Why would you have been surprised? How many professional athletes have you seen moved to tears after being traded? I can think of 1. Wilmer Flores. I'm sure there are more, but it's certainly not the majority. I'm not saying it's impossible that Berrios was emotional even though he didn't want to be in MN and couldn't wait to get out of here, but that's a far less likely situation than him having actually enjoyed his time with the Twins. That's what I was responding to. The idea that Buxton and Berrios can't/couldn't wait to get out of here. You know what professional athletes, especially really good ones, do when they can't wait to get out of a place? They demand trades and say "I can't wait to get out of this place."

I'm not following your last paragraph. What would most fans consider reasonable?

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Don't pay Berrios, but pay a stranger to replace him. I really don't like my team being full of strangers. Different strangers each year. Colome and Robles and Happ and Shoemaker. And all the others. That is one of the main reasons baseball is loosing fans. They don't even know their team, and the FOs don't treat them as people, just an asset. This is not a virtual fantasy game. This is real life. Their own union isn't helping. They have it organized for only a select few to get paid, and so many never get paid for the great seasons they have in their first 5 years while the CBA is set up to not pay them for perhaps the best seasons of their life. Then they become bad investments, and they are paying them for horrible future seasons. It is all screwed up.

They traded for two prospects, that you'll know in a year or two. And, they'll be around A LOT longer than Berrios would be. Every one of these guys was a prospect at one point. 

Fans show up for winners. IF they win, and no one has heard of the players, people won't care. (note, I'm not saying they will win, but that is what fans care about. The data on that is quite clear, attendance goes way up for winning teams).

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

In 2022 you roll with Maeda and Big Mike plus the youngin’s. All things being equal a staff consisting of 5 solid #2-3s, each averaging about 5-6 innings with an era of about 4 is a winning staff if coupled with a lockdown pen.  
 

By 2023, we should have at least 3, maybe 4, starters from among our farm crew who fit that above description. Throw in one additional FA or trade or even Maeda and then spend the money on a lock down pen. You win with a lockdown pen. Get 5-6 innings of 2-4 run ball from your starters and get to the premier pen. 

I'm going to share an older article from John Sickels about defining an ace, a #2, #3, etc. There have been several of these type of articles over the years from various sources but all of them are pretty much in agreement, although this talks more about prospects then established pitchers. And ML pitchers can pitch well above their label. (Radke and Buerhle are two classic examples)

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/8/7/3226335/defining-1-2-3-4-5-starters

Essentially, Maeda and Big Mike aren't #2. They are backend starters at this point. Mike will end the season with a WAR of around 1, Maeda will be less than that. Our best (arguably) pitching prospect, Balazovic, grades out as a future 3 or 4 type.

[chpettit19]

59 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

That type of "flexibility," has produced a laundry list of failed FA starters and has contributed in large part to the current state of the rotation. I understand the plan, and it's ideal from a cost savings perspective, but who in the organization profiles as a true 1 or 2 right now? Maybe the Twins get lucky, and someone absolutely maxes out. I'm not caping for the FO here but the odds that anybody in this organization is a legitimate ace in 2 years are low. 

I didn't say anything about cost saving. The odds that any of the 5 guys listed in this article are a legitimate ace in 2 years are low as well. None of them are legitimate aces now, and only Thor has ever shown the ability to be one. They've all had nice years, even #1 years, but not ace years. (An ace and a #1 pitcher are different things to me. Berrios maxes out as a #1, not an ace, for example) SWR and Balazovic both profile as true #1 or 2s.

My point is that if the Twins miss on all their arms in the system right now over the next 2 years they're not winning anything anyways. And if that's the case I'd much rather have $150M to spend in 2024 to completely rebuild this thing than $100M to spend and 2 of these guys in their 30s pitching as likely #3 pitchers by then and having no talent around them. The Twins need to produce their own pitching. Basically every team does. Even the Dodgers are relying on Buehler being super cheap right now. And Urias. And May. And Gray. Now some teams can take some big shots like the Nats did with Stras, Scherzer, and Corbin, and that certainly worked out for them as they got a ring out of it. But now they have Corbin making 23, 24, 35 over the next 3 years, Strasburg as the Buxton of pitchers, Juan Soto, and nothing else. 

The 5 guys listed in this article are all very good pitchers and I'd take any one of them on the Twins. But not for 5/125. Let's say we sign 2 of them for that. Now we have 2 of these guys, Maeda, and our slew of AAAA arms and prospects. With no bullpen. Or 1 of them and then we have that guy, Maeda, and our slew of AAAA arms and prospects with a pretty solid bullpen (assuming the rest of their FA money went to bullpen guys). The Twins pitching staff is too broken for signing 1 or 2 of these guys to make them a real contender over the next 2 years. The prospects have to work out. If they don't they're screwed anyways. So why have a guy making $25M in 3 years when the team around him will be garbage and he'll be on the decline?

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I didn't say anything about cost saving. The odds that any of the 5 guys listed in this article are a legitimate ace in 2 years are low as well. None of them are legitimate aces now, and only Thor has ever shown the ability to be one. They've all had nice years, even #1 years, but not ace years. (An ace and a #1 pitcher are different things to me. Berrios maxes out as a #1, not an ace, for example) SWR and Balazovic both profile as true #1 or 2s.

My point is that if the Twins miss on all their arms in the system right now over the next 2 years they're not winning anything anyways. And if that's the case I'd much rather have $150M to spend in 2024 to completely rebuild this thing than $100M to spend and 2 of these guys in their 30s pitching as likely #3 pitchers by then and having no talent around them. The Twins need to produce their own pitching. Basically every team does. Even the Dodgers are relying on Buehler being super cheap right now. And Urias. And May. And Gray. Now some teams can take some big shots like the Nats did with Stras, Scherzer, and Corbin, and that certainly worked out for them as they got a ring out of it. But now they have Corbin making 23, 24, 35 over the next 3 years, Strasburg as the Buxton of pitchers, Juan Soto, and nothing else. 

The 5 guys listed in this article are all very good pitchers and I'd take any one of them on the Twins. But not for 5/125. Let's say we sign 2 of them for that. Now we have 2 of these guys, Maeda, and our slew of AAAA arms and prospects. With no bullpen. Or 1 of them and then we have that guy, Maeda, and our slew of AAAA arms and prospects with a pretty solid bullpen (assuming the rest of their FA money went to bullpen guys). The Twins pitching staff is too broken for signing 1 or 2 of these guys to make them a real contender over the next 2 years. The prospects have to work out. If they don't they're screwed anyways. So why have a guy making $25M in 3 years when the team around him will be garbage and he'll be on the decline?

If you think the team will be garbage in three years, it doesn't matter if they sign guys or not. I'm not really understanding your argument, frankly.....We all agree, they need at least 2 of their minor league pitchers to be good to great. No one is arguing that.

the question is....should they sign 1-2 FA starters? I vote yes, on at least one. The young guys need mentors. They need someone to even just watch how they do their job, how they prepare, everything. Also, if 2 work out, and you've already signed a guy, bonus! If none work out, it doesn't matte if you sign a guy or  not.

There is little downside to signing one good FA pitcher. They have the money, they need 8 pitchers and have 1 or 2 right now....I don't see the downside at all. If the young guys are good by 2023, you have a guy locked in. If the young guys are bad, you can trade him (or  not, if he's not working out). If somehow too many young guys are good, you deal someone for some f'n defense (which this team utterly lacks).

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you think the team will be garbage in three years, it doesn't matter if they sign guys or not. I'm not really understanding your argument, frankly.....We all agree, they need at least 2 of their minor league pitchers to be good to great. No one is arguing that.

the question is....should they sign 1-2 FA starters? I vote yes, on at least one. The young guys need mentors. They need someone to even just watch how they do their job, how they prepare, everything. Also, if 2 work out, and you've already signed a guy, bonus! If none work out, it doesn't matte if you sign a guy or  not.

There is little downside to signing one good FA pitcher. They have the money, they need 8 pitchers and have 1 or 2 right now....I don't see the downside at all. If the young guys are good by 2023, you have a guy locked in. If the young guys are bad, you can trade him (or  not, if he's not working out). If somehow too many young guys are good, you deal someone for some f'n defense (which this team utterly lacks).

I'm saying if none of the prospect arms hit over the next 2 years the team will be bad no matter what free agents we sign. We can't afford to fill a rotation and pen on big name, or even medium name, FA signings. The Twins can only compete if they produce their own pitching. So if all the arms in AA and AAA now fail they're not going to be good in 2024 anyways so why have 2 high priced FA arms with nothing else around them, especially if it's 2 of the guys in this list who have never been consistent #1 guys and will be on their decline by then?

My response there was in response to somebody else's response to me saying I wouldn't sign guys for longer than 2 years during this offseason. I at no time have said they shouldn't sign FA pitchers. I said I wouldn't give any of them deals longer than 2 years, because if the Twins haven't developed any of their own arms by then the team isn't winning and you're blowing it all up anyways. 2 years is when Donaldson's money comes off the books and it feels like a time to have all your money available and not have veterans on the decline gobbling up a large chunk of payroll on a bad team when you'd be firing the FO and starting over.

And if the prospects do hit then you want your money in 2024 to be going to extending the core of this team and bringing in other FAs who are performing then, and not to any of these guys in their decline.

[KirbyDome89]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I didn't say anything about cost saving. The odds that any of the 5 guys listed in this article are a legitimate ace in 2 years are low as well. None of them are legitimate aces now, and only Thor has ever shown the ability to be one. They've all had nice years, even #1 years, but not ace years. (An ace and a #1 pitcher are different things to me. Berrios maxes out as a #1, not an ace, for example) SWR and Balazovic both profile as true #1 or 2s.

My point is that if the Twins miss on all their arms in the system right now over the next 2 years they're not winning anything anyways. And if that's the case I'd much rather have $150M to spend in 2024 to completely rebuild this thing than $100M to spend and 2 of these guys in their 30s pitching as likely #3 pitchers by then and having no talent around them. The Twins need to produce their own pitching. Basically every team does. Even the Dodgers are relying on Buehler being super cheap right now. And Urias. And May. And Gray. Now some teams can take some big shots like the Nats did with Stras, Scherzer, and Corbin, and that certainly worked out for them as they got a ring out of it. But now they have Corbin making 23, 24, 35 over the next 3 years, Strasburg as the Buxton of pitchers, Juan Soto, and nothing else. 

The 5 guys listed in this article are all very good pitchers and I'd take any one of them on the Twins. But not for 5/125. Let's say we sign 2 of them for that. Now we have 2 of these guys, Maeda, and our slew of AAAA arms and prospects. With no bullpen. Or 1 of them and then we have that guy, Maeda, and our slew of AAAA arms and prospects with a pretty solid bullpen (assuming the rest of their FA money went to bullpen guys). The Twins pitching staff is too broken for signing 1 or 2 of these guys to make them a real contender over the next 2 years. The prospects have to work out. If they don't they're screwed anyways. So why have a guy making $25M in 3 years when the team around him will be garbage and he'll be on the decline?

It's cost saving in the sense it's less taxing to develop and pay young front end talent than it is to trade for, or sign them. I'd define it slightly differently but I agree with the characterizations. 

Money saved today isn't available years down the road. I agree that the Twins need to develop their own pitching, but if the FO refuses to supplement prospects with FA or trades they're setting themselves up for failure. Doesn't being garbage in three years become sort of a self fulfilling prophecy at that point? Why not sign FAs with the hope that a young arms can stick? If the worst case scenario you laid out becomes a reality and the team sucks, paying FA arms won't matter because this team is looking at another half decade+ or irrelevancy. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm saying if none of the prospect arms hit over the next 2 years the team will be bad no matter what free agents we sign. ......................(cropped for space)

And if the prospects do hit then you want your money in 2024 to be going to extending the core of this team and bringing in other FAs who are performing then, and not to any of these guys in their decline.

I'm not ready to punt 2023. And, you can sign a guy a year earlier than you are serious contenders. It is nearly impossible to fill all the holes in one off season. Signing guys to 2 year deals, imo, is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy of problems. The best players won't do that, so you are left with the leftovers.....

I think putting 4 rookies  and Maeda out there is a huge mistake, in terms of managing the young guys' careers for mentor/observation/help/whatever words you want to use. 

I'm only 90% willing to punt next year, frankly. The O is good enough to make the playoffs. The D and pitching are not. Get a real SS, one real SP, and one real RP......and get lucky with the minors....I mean, I'd deal from their depth of hitters that can't field for a guy under team control, but I don't see them doing that.....