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The Twins Have Got to Make Their Loaded Farm System Count


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The Minnesota Twins entered the 2021 season with a minor league system considered by many to be among the top 15 in all of baseball. Headlined by the likes of Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Trevor Larnach, the Twins affiliates boasted lineups filled with athletes who projected to one day be big league-quality bats with a couple of intriguing arms sprinkled throughout the minor leagues.

Then the 2021 season happened.

Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff were consensus top 100 prospects. However, outfielder Trevor Larnach, catcher Ryan Jeffers, and pitchers Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic also found their names among the league's most exciting future players depending on which prospect rankings site one preferred.

Royce Lewis lost a second straight campaign after he tore his ACL. Kirilloff, Larnach and Jeffers graduated thanks to a bevy of injuries and poor play from the MLB club. Duran and Balazovic missed time at the beginning of the season with arm injuries and slow starts. (Balazovic has turned it on as of late, while Duran was shut down with an elbow injury.)

The sheen on the Twins' top 12-15 farm system became far duller by mid-June despite the encouraging progress shown by the likes of utility infielder Jose Miranda and pitcher Josh Winder.

Before Friday's trade deadline, the Twins' system lacked a level of potential high-end talent that most of the teams inside the top 10 had, and some teams, like the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers, had in spades. However, that all changed when the Twins dealt Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for shortstop Austin Martin and pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson. 

Martin is a consensus top 60 prospect who hits for average, gets on base at a high clip, and has projectable power, despite his low home run output this year at Double-A. His long-term fit at shortstop is dubious, with most experts believing he'll eventually find a home at either second base or center field. Woods Richardson is a consensus top 75 prospect who boasts four legit pitches and substantial strikeout numbers but struggles with command, though, to be fair, what 20-year-old doesn't? 

When paired alongside pitchers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman, who the Twins acquired from the Rays in exchange for Nelson Cruz, the Twins added four prospects to their top 10 and two to their top five over the last two weeks to more than replenish their future talent cupboard. Their farm system metamorphosed from good to excellent, from deep to DEEP, from top 15 in the league to arguably top 5 in a brief amount of time.

But a stockpile of minor league talent does nothing for a franchise unless it's developed adequately and positively impacts the major league team or tapped into to bring in quality MLB talent. No team gets to hang a banner for having the best farm system in place. 

Now the ball is in Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and the various Twins coaching staffs' court. It is on their shoulders to make the Twins' newfound prospect currency count.

The Twins possess the most depth at starting pitcher, with the majority of their top 20 prospects - Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Duran, Winder, Ryan, Strotman, Blayne Enlow, Chase Petty, Cole Sands, and Chris Vallimont - having the potential to one day slot into the team's starting rotation. 

Of course, not all of them will, but the more fish in the barrel, the more likely one is to snag a catch. The Twins need to develop at least two or three of their starting pitching prospects into legitimate No. 2 or 3 starters. They would also be wise to dangle a few of them as trade bait to bring in impact MLB talent, particularly if the likes of Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, and Jorge Polanco find themselves on new teams in the coming years.

However, their talent extends beyond the mound. Miranda has exploded onto the scene and is far more likely to be considered a top 100 prospect now than entering the season. Similarly, relatively unknown prospects Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, Jermaine Palacios, and Yunior Severino have had strong seasons, boosting their prospect status.

Despite trading the best arm the franchise has employed since Johan Santana, the Twins still see themselves as a team that can contend for a playoff spot in the not-too-distant future, and perhaps as early as next year.

"The future is very bright," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters following the Twins' trade of Berrios. "We have the pieces already here that we're trying to supplement right now with some of the moves that we're making in order to get to a point where we are a playoff baseball team again. And I don't think we're very far away."

Falvey largely echoed Baldelli's sentiment.

"Our view of this is sustainability," Falvey said of the trade. "[This year] has not been what we wanted. But we still feel, even as Jose walked out the door here, and that's not easy, don't get me wrong, that we feel we have a lot of talent in that clubhouse coming back in '22 and '23 and beyond and so how do you build a sustainable group? You've got to retool it sometimes."

The only way the Twins can find themselves back in the playoff hunt next year and beyond is if the franchise capitalizes on their current wealth of young assets. Despite their current 100-loss pace, doing so is not an unrealistic goal. They simply need to go and make it happen.

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Excellent article - no more dumpster dive FA.  Use the talent we have.  Develop it.  Let the arms work.  Of course the trade deadline fizzled when we should have moved a lot more players and gotten even more prospects.  Unlike Baldelli, Levine, and Falvey I do not see the pieces in place to succeed.

Maeda, Ober, Jax and who make up the rotation of the team for next year at this point.  Let's hope some of those minor leaguers fill in the rest and show even brighter than what these three bring.

Who is BP?  Alcala fizzled, Duffey is too erratic and seems to have lost something, Rogers has to come back from injury and Colome and Coloumbe are an interesting name combination, but I have no faith in them  Thielbar - can he keep it going?  Hamilton, Moran...

Who is at SS - does Martin  get it for a year, does Polanco go back there?  Is Lewis able to overcome two years off?  Does our OF have Kepler, Larnach, Buxton?  Can Buxton stay healthy?  Are we stuck with Cave again?  

Is Rooker DH?  Can he overcome his K's.  Is Sano DH?  Can he overcome his K's?  

Will Donaldson stay on the field or do we put in Miranda?

Garver and Jeffers - what to do with Rortvedt?

So many questions for a team that is going to rise again - quickly.

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This post is exactly correct in that it identifies the necessary switch in franchise strategy given the poor results this year (this is what small to mid market teams do when the window clearly has closed - that’s just today’s MLB) and where the primary responsibility now resides for the successful execution of that strategy (coaching staff throughout the organization), 
 

Think about this possible starting lineup in 2023:

1. Arraez (2B)

2. Martin (LF)

3. Buxton (CF) 

4. Kiriloff (1B)

5. Miranda (3B)

6. Polanco (DH)

7. Larnach (RF)

8. Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt (C)

9. Lewis (SS)

Bench: Gordon, Rooker, Celestino

Obviously, there will be changes to this (i.e., maybe a Kepler or Sano turn things around), but the point is that with Buxton, Polanco and maybe Garver making about $25-30MM and the rest making close to league minimum, these 14 players cost under $40MM.

Now think about the pitching staff. We should be able to develop at least three, hopefully 4, solid #2s-#3s out of the ten or so candidates currently in the system. Ideally, another three or four are in the pen.  That’s over half of the staff on league minimum - let’s say another $10MM.
 

Ownership will clearly spend $120-140MM to pursue a championship.  There is now $70-90MM available to: a) add one or two #1-2 starters, b) build a shutdown pen like we used to have and like the ChiSox are doing, and c) add one or two solid position players/bats.  
 

There is a solid strategy here.
 

The three key decisions under team control are to resign Buxton, play the young guys in 2021 and 2022 to see what you’ve got, and make sure you have the right coaching staff.

As a mid market franchise, we can’t be blessed to realistically compete every year,  We’ve had great runs and the possibility is there for another to develop.  I, for one, am looking forward to watching the remainder of this year and next to see the plan develop.

 

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Maybe I'm just too scarred by the Ryan regime, but I cannot remember the last time I was this excited about a trade deal. This package blows the Santana deal out of the water, and if Berrios was as set on testing free agency as has been reported, this is probably the best case scenario for what the Twins could have gotten in return. Bummed that this means next season is probably a wash, but 2023 is looking pretty exciting.

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The point was made that the Twins need to show that they can develop their considerable talent.  Can they?  Will they?  I'm not knowledgeable enough on advanced baseball metrics as many of you.  I am a frustrated Minnesota sports fan who sees former Twins make the All-Star team and draws potentially specious conclusions about the farm system.  I also live in metro Houston, where the Astros continue to grow great talent to the majors notwithstanding their recent cheating.  And so, I'll wait and see, but with diminished expectations...my roots are Minnesotan, after all.

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Does anyone really expect that there will be a full season next year? How does a long work stoppage in 2021 fit into this scenario? Certainly lowers the cost of trading Berrios since we wouldn't have gotten much from him anyway. If there is a stoppage, will the minor leagues play? If so, this could be win/win because the youngsters get another part-year of development without the pressure of potentially moving up before they are ready.

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"Now the ball is in Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and the various Twins coaching staffs' court. It is on their shoulders to make the Twins' newfound prospect currency count."

This is the source of my pessimism. I can't imagine a group I have less confidence in for this task. I think our talent acquisition is strong, but I have less than zero faith in the FO and staff who develop and evaluate that talent in our system. Too many great players have been given away for nothing. Too many terrible players remain. This organization needs a rebuild.

It's sad. We had a clear window for a good run, and this group let it all slip through their fingers. We are now a bottom-5 MLB team. Why would they get another shot?

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The crux of this thread is that the keys to success are scouting and player development. Acquire the right players at the right time for the right price and have a system in place to get them to play their best. This does not happen overnight; in baseball it takes five years to find out if the moves you make today are good ones. The organization is far improved compared to the shambles that Falvey and Levine assumed control of during the 2016-2017 off-season. If they have succeeded in implementing their plan the next five years should see the farm system producing more and more good major league players. I'm cautiously optimistic.

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Love the excitement this week brought to an otherwise dismal season.

But several have hinted at what may be a problem, ie, can the Twins develop these kids?  Granted, I am unable to watch any of the Twins games this year (tonight on FS1 is an exception), but I have been led to believe that this team makes way too many fundamental mistakes.  And that is a combination of coaching (lack of) and being more interested in analytics than good ole fashioned and boring work on the field.  Remember all those spring training stories about Tom Kelly working with first baseman on some play...over and over and over?

Hopefully, the Twins will send the message throughout the system that they need to get to work and make these kids the best they can be.  Sounds like the raw talent should be there.

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23 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

The crux of this thread is that the keys to success are scouting and player development. Acquire the right players at the right time for the right price and have a system in place to get them to play their best. This does not happen overnight; in baseball it takes five years to find out if the moves you make today are good ones. The organization is far improved compared to the shambles that Falvey and Levine assumed control of during the 2016-2017 off-season. If they have succeeded in implementing their plan the next five years should see the farm system producing more and more good major league players. I'm cautiously optimistic.

As a former high school/junior college coach I agree you can't build a program overnight. The yardstick at that level is typically three years. If you're not showing progress by then you need to figure out where you're going wrong and make some major programmatic changes. However if we accept your five-year measurement for professional baseball, and I do find that mark reasonable, do we not have to score the first five years of the Falvey/Levine junta; 2016-2021? If so, we should be looking forward to the play-offs this year instead of scratching heads or various other body parts while continuing with the same program in the hopes of reaching Nirvana in the next five years. Yet we are not.

Is it not then logical that fans (granted: often an illogical group) should be expecting major changes in the front office/coaching staff/personnel departments before plunging ahead into the next five years with the same jockeys riding the same dead horse they've been beating for the past five years?

 

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3 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

As a former high school/junior college coach I agree you can't build a program overnight. The yardstick at that level is typically three years. If you're not showing progress by then you need to figure out where you're going wrong and make some major programmatic changes. However if we accept your five-year measurement for professional baseball, and I do find that mark reasonable, do we not have to score the first five years of the Falvey/Levine junta; 2016-2021? If so, we should be looking forward to the play-offs this year instead of scratching heads or various other body parts while continuing with the same program in the hopes of reaching Nirvana in the next five years. Yet we are not.

Is it not then logical that fans (granted: often an illogical group) should be expecting major changes in the front office/coaching staff/personnel departments before plunging ahead into the next five years with the same jockeys riding the same dead horse they've been beating for the past five years?

 

I would be surprised if there aren't significant changes in the coaching staff and personnel departments, particularly in the minors. I don't think they run everything back completely unchanged next season. Falvine bought themselves some time, and rightfully so in my opinion, thanks to back-to-back 100-win pace seasons. But there are definitely changes that should and will be made. 

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Just now, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

I would be surprised if there aren't significant changes in the coaching staff and personnel departments, particularly in the minors. I don't think they run everything back completely unchanged next season. Falvine bought themselves some time, and rightfully so in my opinion, thanks to back-to-back 100-win pace seasons. But there are definitely changes that should and will be made. 

But don't expect Rocco to go anywhere. 

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The take on Balazovic is about 2 weeks out of sync since he's has had two rough starts in a row. 8.1 IP, 10 R, 9 ER. 9 BB, 7 K, 3HRs

Winder has also gotten knocked around in his last 3 appearances 11.2 IP, 8R, 8ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 4HRs. He hasn't pitched in 10 days and isn't scheduled to pitch today, either. I haven't heard anything about injury?

 

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5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The take on Balazovic is about 2 weeks out of sync since he's has had two rough starts in a row. 8.1 IP, 10 R, 9 ER. 9 BB, 7 K, 3HRs

Winder has also gotten knocked around in his last 3 appearances 11.2 IP, 8R, 8ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 4HRs. He hasn't pitched in 10 days and isn't scheduled to pitch today, either. I haven't heard anything about injury?

 

I reached out to the Saints about Winder. Toby Gardenhire said that they essentially just gave him the week off. Didn't make it sound as if it was injury-related.

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5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Excellent article - no more dumpster dive FA.  Use the talent we have.  Develop it.  Let the arms work.  Of course the trade deadline fizzled when we should have moved a lot more players and gotten even more prospects.  Unlike Baldelli, Levine, and Falvey I do not see the pieces in place to succeed.

Maeda, Ober, Jax and who make up the rotation of the team for next year at this point.  Let's hope some of those minor leaguers fill in the rest and show even brighter than what these three bring.

Who is BP?  Alcala fizzled, Duffey is too erratic and seems to have lost something, Rogers has to come back from injury and Colome and Coloumbe are an interesting name combination, but I have no faith in them  Thielbar - can he keep it going?  Hamilton, Moran...

Who is at SS - does Martin  get it for a year, does Polanco go back there?  Is Lewis able to overcome two years off?  Does our OF have Kepler, Larnach, Buxton?  Can Buxton stay healthy?  Are we stuck with Cave again?  

Is Rooker DH?  Can he overcome his K's.  Is Sano DH?  Can he overcome his K's?  

Will Donaldson stay on the field or do we put in Miranda?

Garver and Jeffers - what to do with Rortvedt?

So many questions for a team that is going to rise again - quickly.

Good analysis.  A plethora of questions that will need to be answered in the not to distant future.  I would add a few more:

1.  The most obvious & in my opinion the most important question to answer-------What is "the plan/strategy" moving forward with Buxton?

Everyone has their opinions, but if Falvey & Pohlad can be believed---2022 is a season to retool, not a complete rebuild----then the answer to the Buxton question MUST be resolved in the offseason.  If an extension can be agreed upon by all parties with Buxton signed to a long term deal (5+ years), then the domino effect will be resolving our dilemma at SS.  I would think that either Lewis or Martin are the long term answer at that position with "the loser" being moved to another position.

For 2022 though, does Pohlad (he should) have the cajones to make a serious offer to Correa, Story or Corey Seager?

2.  You addressed the DH issue, but I'd offer this will continue to be a revolving door next season as Sano, Rooker, Donaldson and possibly a few others get the vast majority of ABs.  

3. Starting Rotation:   With only Maeda (at this point) a "lock" to be in rotation for 2022, what is the plan for the other 4 slots?

Is Pineda under strong consideration for a multi-year deal at $$ close to what he's earned the last year?

If nothing is done to upgrade at SS, who are 2-3 free agent SPs to target that ARE NOT in the dumpster diver division? No more offers to the likes of Happ or Shoemaker?

4.  Bullpen- Beyond the "Buxton Question"--------this IS the biggest area that must not only be addressed but improved if this club has any chance to be competitive in 2022 and years ahead.  

Who are worthwhile---in the prime of their careers---------RPs that can be obtained in free agency or via the trade market without giving up a king's ransom of prospects?

Which top 50 SP prospects currently in the organizations are targeted for conversion to RP roles?

 

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1 minute ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

I reached out to the Saints about Winder. Toby Gardenhire said that they essentially just gave him the week off. Didn't make it sound as if it was injury-related.

That's good news. All the guys are throwing a whole lot more innings than 2020, obviously. Maybe the thinking is Winder was tiring out a bit and they're hoping a break will help him bounce back?

Any news on Canterino? He was expected to come back any time now, right?

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Top shortstop options are: Correa, Story, Simien are tier 1. Baez and Seager are tier 2. Crawford is tier 3 based on age. There are some other options who could provide stability, but no real value like Simmons, Rojas, Iglesias and Galvis.

I think the combination of Polanco and Arraez needs to be addressed. Both are starting 2B, and while I think Arraez could play 3B, he's blocked by Donaldson.

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Now it is all about minor league management and where you see such players as Sano, Kepler, Polancio, Garver come 2023 or 2024. There are supposedly 12-a4 plays on the cusp of AA thru Triple-A (although the Saints roster is mostly AAA guys now until a few move up from Wichita. If that is rue, the Twins need to find 40-man spots for those guys in the next two seasons. Five should easily come forward by this season's end, with tryouts in the majors in September (the Twins may actually be making few 40-man moves come November than ever).

 

2022/2023 will see basically big expenditures for Donaldson. If his salary was removed, the Twins could spend bigtime on one front-line starter and one real-time closer. They can play their dumpster diving for some bullpen arms (many of whom are already on the 40-man or in St. Paul) as well as that spare outfielder/infielder (most of whom are also at AAA St. Paul).

 

They need to address training and conditioning. So many players down. Waiting for the total of games lost by players to injuries in this season compared to any other. When you have 5/6 guys on the 60-day, well.......

 

 

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47 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

That's good news. All the guys are throwing a whole lot more innings than 2020, obviously. Maybe the thinking is Winder was tiring out a bit and they're hoping a break will help him bounce back?

Any news on Canterino? He was expected to come back any time now, right?

He's working his way back at the compound in Ft. Myers. Sounds like he may be back relatively soonish.

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When I see all the current Twins who have played in the big show this year, I think of Mike Hessman who has the most home runs in Minor League ball.

I read an in depth article on him a few years back that one reason he never made it full time big league is not a lack of talent but at that time there were too many , not average, but good players in the minors and there are only so many positions available on any big league team and they were already taken.

Refsnyder, Garlick and Larnach made me think of him.

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I'm probably more optimistic about 2022 and 2023 than the average fan. We know Garver, Kepler and Sano can hit at the major league level. Maybe it was just a fluke year. If those 3 can start hammering the ball again I think we will be in great shape with the new guys right behind them or playing beside them next year.

Hopefully our starting rotation will roll as well with a few of these young arms getting called up.

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6 hours ago, roger said:

Love the excitement this week brought to an otherwise dismal season.

But several have hinted at what may be a problem, ie, can the Twins develop these kids?  Granted, I am unable to watch any of the Twins games this year (tonight on FS1 is an exception), but I have been led to believe that this team makes way too many fundamental mistakes.  And that is a combination of coaching (lack of) and being more interested in analytics than good ole fashioned and boring work on the field.  Remember all those spring training stories about Tom Kelly working with first baseman on some play...over and over and over?

Hopefully, the Twins will send the message throughout the system that they need to get to work and make these kids the best they can be.  Sounds like the raw talent should be there.

Agreed! Yes, injuries have played the primary role in never being able to gain momentum when they were trying to get on a role but the fundamentals! Their have been so many games where we blew it with bone headed plays on the field. Also so many games we had on hand and the bullpen would completely blow it. In order to be able to take 8 out of 10 games or 15 out of 20 you have to be sharp and making the right plays. Throwing to the cutoff man. Getting the ball in. Throwing strikes. Fundamentals killed this team from the beginning. I put a lot of that on the coaching staff personally 

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7 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

"Now the ball is in Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and the various Twins coaching staffs' court. It is on their shoulders to make the Twins' newfound prospect currency count."

This is the source of my pessimism. I can't imagine a group I have less confidence in for this task. I think our talent acquisition is strong, but I have less than zero faith in the FO and staff who develop and evaluate that talent in our system. Too many great players have been given away for nothing. Too many terrible players remain. This organization needs a rebuild.

It's sad. We had a clear window for a good run, and this group let it all slip through their fingers. We are now a bottom-5 MLB team. Why would they get another shot?

One thing I feel is so overlooked is the results of 2019-2020 with a rookie manager and a mostly new coaching staff. ROOKIE manager Baldelli lead this team to a pair of outstanding seasons. Wes Johnson helped make immediate differences both years for the pitching staff. Rowson was so well regarded as a hitting coach he got a promotion to bench coach for another team, Marlins IIRC. Shelton was so highly regarded as a career milb coach/manager and his job as bench coach for the Twins he got the Pirates job and might have been the Mets coach, again IIRC, before controversy over Houston changed the complexion of things. Jeremy Heffner was the Twins ASSISTANT/BP coach before being hired away by the Mets as their primary PC. Sawyer came in and not only changed how our catchers set up to receive the ball, but also changed how they got batting practice, before they were worn out from just catching everyone.

Mike Bell seemed like a really smart hire as a Shelton replacement before never assuming the role due to cancer and his terribly unfortunate early demise. 

There is a very recent history, despite one aweful and disappointing year, that maybe this FO knows how to change things. They have an almost immediate history of finding high coaching talent good enough to be poached by the rest of MLB. Past players have commented on how the NEW Twins way is about individual development vs some old school formula. 

And I am not picking on LastOnePicked or anyone else. We all have the rights to our opinions. Period! I just get frustrated that "Twins suck", "Rocco sucks", "FO suck" when we are talking about a horrible, disappointing season. It absolutely, positively, "sucks". But sometimes s**t happens, even when you least expect it. 

And blame is easy. It's what happens tomorrow that is important!

Me....stepping off my stool.

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5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Top shortstop options are: Correa, Story, Simien are tier 1. Baez and Seager are tier 2. Crawford is tier 3 based on age. There are some other options who could provide stability, but no real value like Simmons, Rojas, Iglesias and Galvis.

I think the combination of Polanco and Arraez needs to be addressed. Both are starting 2B, and while I think Arraez could play 3B, he's blocked by Donaldson.

I think you hit the nail on SS. There ARE a couple really nice options coming forward really soon to compete, including Lewis, when healthy, and Martin. Palacios should be up to St Paul TOMORROW to see if he is for real. It's time to push some of these kids. Doesn't mean the only 24yo Polacios is a bum if he doesn't continue to rake. It just means you believe in him and are challenging him.

To me, I'd be looking at the best fill-in at SS I could find for 2022. 

I'm playing amateur GM. The Simmons move didn't work out but most of us thought it would. S**t happens. Polanco will only get better and better at 2B given time. Arraez is a smart and productive BALLPLAYER who will only get better and better with opportunity and experience. He is PERFECT in his role at 3 spots and some DH. Who decided DH has to be a banger?

Maybe someone like Galvis woukd be perfect for one year?

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I'd certainly think it's high time Palacios was moved to AAA. I'd really like to see him playing shortstop on the roster in September. It seems like the Twins have moved on from Gordon and are now trying to transform him into a center fielder. Honestly, no friggen clue what the front office is thinking. Maybe they'll move Miguel Sano to center field next. He used to play shortstop, too. I suppose it's not shocking. After all, I seem to recall Gardy started Chris Parmelee in center field one time.

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2 hours ago, DocBauer said:

And blame is easy. It's what happens tomorrow that is important!

I like this, Doc. I like all of it. And I am more angry than rational right now. I've wanted to see this team finally turn it around and set this state on fire again for baseball. The pieces were all there, or so we thought.

I disagree that 2019 and 2020 weren't disappointing, though. They ended with an immediate postseason whimper. Is it all just bad luck ... or something else?

It seems that Rocco and the FO are all going to be given a fair shot to right the ship. We shall see how they rise to the challenge. This is no longer someone else's mess ... it's theirs alone.

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