José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays

[KirbyDome89]

On 8/2/2021 at 4:12 PM, TheLeviathan said:

It's a W in the sense that they got much more value than was expected.  And it was a W relative to other deals for other similar players who moved at the deadline.  It isn't mutually exclusive that the team also will suffer immediately from losing Berrios and that the Twins did very well given the circumstances.

0% chance is not entirely on the Twins either.  That's the marching orders Barreiro is preaching in the media market and he's mostly grasping for straws.  (Reusse too.  On the basis of haggling in arbitration....which happens ALL THE TIME.  It's literally what the process is: quibbling over thousands) Jose Berrios wants to experience FA.  He can't do that by signing an extension.  I'm sure if the Twins threw some absurd amount of money at him he might change his mind, but the money it'd take to do that is not what I think any Twins fan would agree to pay.  (Say....5 years, 150M) So, no, that's not on them.  That's how the system is built.  Good for Jose that he gets to set his terms and his valuation and let suitors come to him.  He has earned that privilege and there is nothing the Twins can do about that if he has his mind set to do so.

Given that's the case, you have to weigh the prospects of what 2022 looks like because keeping him guarantees you a vastly diminished return in a trade.  The 2022 staff is still a bad pitching staff with him and there are less tradeable assets and less money to improve.  Now they have more options because they chose to maximize his trade value.  

I don't think 2022 is a contention year, I think 2023 is more likely because of the state of their young talent and what 2020 did to delay that pipeline.  Is that a certainty?  No.  But no one gets to deal in certainties, only probabilities.  All the probabilities point to this series of decisions being the right ones. We seem to be trying to paint people as "lusting for prospects" when all that's really happening is a sober take on where we're at.  No one wants to be at this point, especially not with the expectations we set out with.  But this isn't a fantasy land where you can just will the team to success on the basis of your undying love of seeing them play right now.  Good teams, that retool quickly, don't double down on mistakes and hang on too long out of denial.

I agree, they aren't mutually exclusive, but it's hard to look at the situation and call it a W when the odds are stacked against the Twins. 

We'd all go to FA in his place, but my moving him the Twins essentially told him they weren't interested in even attempting to pay him what he's worth. That's 100% on them. If they wanted him, they could have him. 

Sure, there is an opportunity cost for keeping him. My point was that I've seen a number of posters in support of moving him also play the "nobody knows what '22 will look like," card. It seems disingenuous. If we can all agree assembling a staff next year, even with Berrios, was going to be incredibly difficult, I think we can also agree that moving him, barring some miracle trade(s), all but guarantees this team is punting on next season. 

I think the "keep Berrios," camp is also dealing in probabilities when looking at the likelihood that the Twins add another pitcher of his caliber, whether that's via trade or development. I don't see a lot of the trade characterizations as sober, so we'll disagree there. My desire to keep Berrios wasn't about losing a few less games this year, it has way more to do with the fact he's the best pitcher this organization has had in a decade+, he's young and durable, there isn't any internal option that profiles to match his production, and we have a FO with a suspect track record when it comes to identifying and/or developing arms. 

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I agree, they aren't mutually exclusive, but it's hard to look at the situation and call it a W when the odds are stacked against the Twins. 

We'd all go to FA in his place, but my moving him the Twins essentially told him they weren't interested in even attempting to pay him what he's worth. That's 100% on them. If they wanted him, they could have him. 

Sure, there is an opportunity cost for keeping him. My point was that I've seen a number of posters in support of moving him also play the "nobody knows what '22 will look like," card. It seems disingenuous. If we can all agree assembling a staff next year, even with Berrios, was going to be incredibly difficult, I think we can also agree that moving him, barring some miracle trade(s), all but guarantees this team is punting on next season. 

I think the "keep Berrios," camp is also dealing in probabilities when looking at the likelihood that the Twins add another pitcher of his caliber, whether that's via trade or development. I don't see a lot of the trade characterizations as sober, so we'll disagree there. My desire to keep Berrios wasn't about losing a few less games this year, it has way more to do with the fact he's the best pitcher this organization has had in a decade+, he's young and durable, there isn't any internal option that profiles to match his production, and we have a FO with a suspect track record when it comes to identifying and/or developing arms. 

I don't think it's fair to say the Twins can win bidding wars in FA with the heavy spending organizations.  Baseball has a serious problem on this front, I'm not sure why we're approaching the system in denial of that.  We don't have to like it.  We can find it morally wrong.  Yet, nevertheless, this is our situation: we won't be outbidding the big dogs and Berrios wants to let the big dogs fight over him.

We'd all love to be in a situation where keeping Jose Berrios made sense.  All of us.  We all wish the organization's status with MLB-ready pitching was better.  But it's the reality of both of those things that make the analysis of this rather simple, if depressing.  He isn't staying.  The Twins aren't going to spend 30M on a pitcher because that's not the way they operate.  They don't have anyone ready now or for next year that can step in and make this team a contender.  We look like a retool for 2023 by all probabilities.  Given that, it makes more sense to have two well regarded guys that could be here in 2023 over a guy with 0% chance.  

The sober part is about not letting the emotional arguments you keep make rule over the cold analytical ones.  Hard as that might be.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

I don't think it's fair to say the Twins can win bidding wars in FA with the heavy spending organizations.  Baseball has a serious problem on this front, I'm not sure why we're approaching the system in denial of that.  We don't have to like it.  We can find it morally wrong.  Yet, nevertheless, this is our situation: we won't be outbidding the big dogs and Berrios wants to let the big dogs fight over him.

We'd all love to be in a situation where keeping Jose Berrios made sense.  All of us.  We all wish the organization's status with MLB-ready pitching was better.  But it's the reality of both of those things that make the analysis of this rather simple, if depressing.  He isn't staying.  The Twins aren't going to spend 30M on a pitcher because that's not the way they operate.  They don't have anyone ready now or for next year that can step in and make this team a contender.  We look like a retool for 2023 by all probabilities.  Given that, it makes more sense to have two well regarded guys that could be here in 2023 over a guy with 0% chance.  

The sober part is about not letting the emotional arguments you keep make rule over the cold analytical ones.  Hard as that might be.

I agree, it's a massive problem. I've never made the argument that the Twins have the financial safety net that competing teams do when it comes to spending in FA. That said, this organization made Joe Mauer one of the highest paid players in baseball over a decade ago, and he was absolutely worth it. The notion that the Twins can't pay Berrios what the market dictates rings hollow, at least for my ears. 

That reality set in a while ago for me. Again, my issue is how the move is being framed. They're going to need to spend at least half, if not more of that $30M AAV just to replace Berrios with an inferior pitcher in FA. He was a guy they could've retooled around, even if the next season or two wasn't competitive, that's a rotation staple for an organization that has almost zero stability on their staff. 

I don't that's a fair characterization of the points I've made. If one of the two prospects becomes a regular, above replacement level contributor in 2-3 years, that's a favorable outcome as far as prospect bust rate is concerned. If Martin is a utility IF/OF and Woods Richardson can slot in as the 4 man that's a great outcome relatively speaking. We wouldn't celebrate that swap. We're on the hope train, which I think has an equal if not greater emotional investment. 

It sounds like we agree about the should but not the could. 

[TheLeviathan]

23 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

I agree, it's a massive problem. I've never made the argument that the Twins have the financial safety net that competing teams do when it comes to spending in FA. That said, this organization made Joe Mauer one of the highest paid players in baseball over a decade ago, and he was absolutely worth it. The notion that the Twins can't pay Berrios what the market dictates rings hollow, at least for my ears. 

That reality set in a while ago for me. Again, my issue is how the move is being framed. They're going to need to spend at least half, if not more of that $30M AAV just to replace Berrios with an inferior pitcher in FA. He was a guy they could've retooled around, even if the next season or two wasn't competitive, that's a rotation staple for an organization that has almost zero stability on their staff. 

I don't that's a fair characterization of the points I've made. If one of the two prospects becomes a regular, above replacement level contributor in 2-3 years, that's a favorable outcome as far as prospect bust rate is concerned. If Martin is a utility IF/OF and Woods Richardson can slot in as the 4 man that's a great outcome relatively speaking. We wouldn't celebrate that swap. We're on the hope train, which I think has an equal if not greater emotional investment. 

It sounds like we agree about the should but not the could. 

Yeah, I am for sure making an "is" argument over an "ought" one.  

What I will say is this, if you've come to terms with the idea that the Twins aren't going to spend 25-30M on a single starting pitcher, especially one intent on trying the market, then this deal is a no brainer IMO.  

Instead of Berrios and his salary and an impending loss of him to FA, we now have more money immediately and long term to find his replacements and more prospects/talent around which to build the team.  Part of how a team like the Twins win isn't in having a few very good to great players like Berrios, but in having a major league roster with as few bad players as possible and a couple studs sprinkled in.  At this point, our major league roster this year and next year just has too many negative players to be optimistic and one Jose Berrios doesn't change that. Making this trade, however, gives them more assets towards that end, especially from 2023 and beyond.  

 

[flpmagikat]

All it comes down to for me is this. Jose wants to bet on himself, which is probably a decent idea considering his track record. He's not signing anywhere until he's a FA, and thats his right, and I applaud him for all he's done and will do. We don't know any of the real numbers, but most people agree he's worth about wheeler money, maybe a few more dollars, Ive seen 150/5 type contracts as what it would probably take to get his to forgo FA. And maybe he goes and balls out in Toronto and is worth all that and more, hell I hope he's worth Cole money and gets himself paid.

But the Twins don't like that bet, because they get no guarantees. They can take that money and try to sign another pitcher of similar quality for the same contract, and get two highly regarded prospects in the process. And thats a really smart move, because while I love Berrios, and always rather see the players get paid, I don't want to see the value for pitchers of his caliber jump like 8mil/yr in an already shaky couple years, and I know teams in any market, but especially mid/small don't want that either.  

[KirbyDome89]

56 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yeah, I am for sure making an "is" argument over an "ought" one.  

What I will say is this, if you've come to terms with the idea that the Twins aren't going to spend 25-30M on a single starting pitcher, especially one intent on trying the market, then this deal is a no brainer IMO.  

Instead of Berrios and his salary and an impending loss of him to FA, we now have more money immediately and long term to find his replacements and more prospects/talent around which to build the team.  Part of how a team like the Twins win isn't in having a few very good to great players like Berrios, but in having a major league roster with as few bad players as possible and a couple studs sprinkled in.  At this point, our major league roster this year and next year just has too many negative players to be optimistic and one Jose Berrios doesn't change that. Making this trade, however, gives them more assets towards that end, especially from 2023 and beyond.  

 

Part of the reason I couched the "might've been the best way to salvage the situation," in my OP. 

My confidence in their ability to spend the $$ wisely on pitching isn't exactly high, nor do I anticipate them spending if they see themselves as punting, despite whatever PR spin the fanbase is fed. Isn't avoiding replacement level players every team's goal? I don't think the Twins are unique with that approach. Berrios' departure created a massive hole, I'm skeptical the Twins are able/willing to fill it in completely.