Fluke season or not?

[Twodogs]

I think the Twins kinda got what the front office deserves.  I mean we all knew that after the off season a rotation that included Happ and Shoemaker was shaky at best.  No one could have predicted Maeda's poor start to the season especially after what he did last season; but even then, last season was not a normal season for Maeda, he was much more of a 4 or 5 inning guy and then done for the Dodgers.  He did great last year and I kinda thought he would do close to that again this year but it didn't work out that way.  Pineda has always been steady, but for the most part he always misses time each year.  Shoemaker, another Angel reboot, has not been real good for awhile and Happ has been average but for the most part average on a real good team, the Yankees.  So it really didn't look good from the get go.  Only real consistent pitcher was Berrios.  Then I thought it was fairly clear that Brad Hand maybe wanted to come back to Minnesota, but the Twins passed on him and went after Colome, I felt at the time that was a mistake as I felt Hand was more of a sure thing than Colome.  It was just an off season that was real disappointing to me for a team that was supposed to compete.  Then to see the White Sox signing big name after big name, I was hoping Chicago would fall apart but it didn't happen.  I feel that this season was predictable so not a fluke.  But I really think the Twins have/had a ton of talent so 2019 was no fluke either, the big thing that still bothers me a little from 2019 is not going all in at the deadline and trying to get a starting pitcher of another bat to carry them through the playoffs.  Having to start Dobnak against the Yankees kind of tells you how prepared they were for the playoffs.  They were very well prepared for the regular season in 2019, but not for post season play.  So I don't really think either season is a fluke.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Twodogs said:

Then to see the White Sox signing big name after big name, I was hoping Chicago would fall apart but it didn't happen.

Yeah, all the laughter about LaRussa coming back is ringing a bit hollow now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

35 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Yeah, all the laughter about LaRussa coming back is ringing a bit hollow now.

I still think it was a mistake but the Sox are winning and playing very well so it's hard to make that argument very convincing (and plays more into my general belief that "managers don't matter all that much" so the win difference is miniscule, if it exists at all).

And aside from LaRussa being the right choice, how he was hired was pretty dodgy. The GM should make that call, and all other baseball-related calls, not ownership.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I still think it was a mistake but the Sox are winning and playing very well so it's hard to make that argument very convincing (and plays more into my general belief that "managers don't matter all that much" so the win difference is miniscule, if it exists at all).

And aside from LaRussa being the right choice, how he was hired was pretty dodgy. The GM should make that call, and all other baseball-related calls, not ownership.

If managers really mattered, they'd make A LOT more money. Like, a WAR from players is worth 5-10MM per WAR.....if  a manager could win 10 extra games for a team, what would a team pay for that? 

[JesusisLord7]

In 1987 we had Viola and Blyleven on the mound. In 1991 we had Jack Morris. The reason these modern day Twins don't win is because we do not have an ace. Berrios was far from an ace and case in point he was shelled in the post season. Yes 2019-2020 was a fluke because we were good in the regular season. How long has it been since we won in the post season? I won't answer that but enough said. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

55 minutes ago, JesusisLord7 said:

In 1987 we had Viola and Blyleven on the mound. In 1991 we had Jack Morris. The reason these modern day Twins don't win is because we do not have an ace. Berrios was far from an ace and case in point he was shelled in the post season. Yes 2019-2020 was a fluke because we were good in the regular season. How long has it been since we won in the post season? I won't answer that but enough said. 

The Twins had the best pitcher in baseball in the 2000s and still never won. 

[tony&rodney]

Cleveland has had more difficult circumstances in 2021 than our Twins. The Twins just haven't played well for any stretch  this season, yet. I do believe that players like Sano, Kepler, Polanco, and Buxton can mature into healthy and productive parts of of a good team. The Twins can compete next year if they pursue a few pitchers via trades and free agency. The additions would need to be significant if the Twins seek to mirror their disappointment of 1964.

On another note mentioned by someone previously, it would be a good idea for competitive purposes to get back to a more balanced schedule. This allows teams to have a more realistic idea of their team in relationship to others.

[jimbo92107]

Informative season. In two years the Twins went from setting a major league record for home runs and competing in every way but pitching for a championship, to 2021... Different players, different hitting approach, absolute flop of a season.  

Recommendation: Every able bat in the lineup should go back to lifting the ball and driving it towards the parking lot. Muscle up, boys. Do it for your own sake as well as the team's winning record. Fire the hitting coach twice. Hire back Rowson for five times the money. 

As for pitching, bring up every plausible arm ASAP. I'm not saying they must throw 100 percent strikes...but every pitch, at some point in the process, should look like it's going to be a strike. Have pitchers forgotten their kinship to magicians? You have one trick to learn: Make the hitters think the ball is going to be where, in fact, it is not going to be. Six inches of error is all you need to transform the best hitter into just another easy out. It can't be that hard - look how often it happens to our batters!

[RpR]

Hmmm, at the start of the season writers poo-poohed how Detroit was again going flounder around the basement and there is a good chance they may finish ahead of Cleveland.

They swept the Yankees in New York.

Is that a fluke or better management?

[Twodogs]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The Twins had the best pitcher in baseball in the 2000s and still never won. 

True, but in all fairness to Jesus, I think if the Twins consistently had the best pitcher in baseball pitching for them that they wouldn't be 0 for like their last 20 playoff games. And at one point you know lightning would strike and they'd win a series maybe even have gotten to the World Series at some point.  But without that guy they really don't stand much of a chance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, Twodogs said:

True, but in all fairness to Jesus, I think if the Twins consistently had the best pitcher in baseball pitching for them that they wouldn't be 0 for like their last 20 playoff games. And at one point you know lightning would strike and they'd win a series maybe even have gotten to the World Series at some point.  But without that guy they really don't stand much of a chance.

There is more than one way to win in baseball. The 2014 Royals had a decent rotation (12th best ERA in baseball) and lost the World Series.

The 2015 Royals had a bad rotation (22nd in ERA in baseball) and won the World Series.

Having the best pitcher in the world helps but it's far from a guarantee of anything. How many rings do deGrom and Cole have? How many did Santana win?

[Number3]

All I know is that Twins' fans better get used to just enjoying having a MLB team for its own sake and not worrying about wins and losses. When the predictions for a rosier future are all based upon unknowns and generalities like "a bunch of good arms" and "do a better job with free agency" the word "hope" comes to mind.

[bean5302]

On 8/1/2021 at 8:07 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

There is more than one way to win in baseball. The 2014 Royals had a decent rotation (12th best ERA in baseball) and lost the World Series.

The 2015 Royals had a bad rotation (22nd in ERA in baseball) and won the World Series.

Having the best pitcher in the world helps but it's far from a guarantee of anything. How many rings do deGrom and Cole have? How many did Santana win?

Yep. You can win playoff games with luck, like the 1987 Twins did, but if a team wants a decent chance, it starts with the top of the rotation.

The playoff pitching rotation and pitching staff don't look a lot like the regular season staff. The number 4 and 5 starters may not even pitch in the playoffs. It's about the teams' top 2-3 starters. In 2015, for example, the Royals sent two starters to the mound for the World Series who had season ERAs at or below 3.58. Young (3.18) and Volquez (3.58). Young pitched games 1 and 4, while Volquez pitched game 5 (missed the beginning due to his father's passing). The Royals received great starts all 3 times and won all three games.

When it comes to the pitchers you listed...

• Cole has 1 ring, AL Championship 2018 which means he also went to the World Series that year. He was 1 year old the last time the Twins went to the World Series.
• deGrom also has 1 ring, NL Championship in 2015 which means he's also been to the World Series. He was 3 the last time the Twins went to the World Series. Neither Cole nor deGrom were born yet for the 1987 season.
• Santana was the winning pitcher the last time the Twins won a playoff game in 2004. He pitched game 1 and game 3 on super short rest (an example of why the 4-5 starters don't matter in the playoffs). Santana still pitched great allowing 1 earned run only to have Gardy waste the effort with bad bullpen choices. In 2006, his last playoff appearance, Satnana gave the Twins 8 innings of 2 run ball, but they still lost. If your starter gives you 8 innings of 2 run ball, you win that game 70 or 80% of the time. Unfortunately, Santana never went to the playoffs again.

[KirbyDome89]

On 7/29/2021 at 12:31 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Right....lots of good luck in 2019, lots of bad luck in 2021 (that, and covid ruining pitcher development the previous year). Really, outside of naysayers, nearly every projection system and expert figured Happ and Shoemaker would be #4 types....and the bullpen would be ok (not good, ok).....the world is 100% different if either Happ or Shoemaker is a number 4 and Maeda and Pineda are healthy all year.....but, they weren't (I was a naysayer on signing BOTH of them, but with the lost 2020, it makes some sense). 

They 100% need to have 2+ good pitchers from the system next year, or I'll say they should be gone. NOT ONE good pitcher from the minors yet, not one.

What's the threshold for being considered good?

If Ober gives them 120 IP with a 5 ERA and Joe Ryan throws 100ish innings as a back end piece with a 4.50ish ERA is that good enough? What if Balazovic looks like a front end guy for 70 IP but nobody else really looks like a fixture at the major league level? 

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What's the threshold for being considered good?

If Ober gives them 120 IP with a 5 ERA and Joe Ryan throws 100ish innings as a back end piece with a 4.50ish ERA is that good enough? What if Balazovic looks like a front end guy for 70 IP but nobody else really looks like a fixture at the major league level? 

No idea at this point. I think they need a 5 and someone they think, based on what happens in the majors this year, will be a 3 or so next year, that's what I'm aiming for. Then sign Pineda, keep Maeda, and either sign or deal for a legit top end guy. The hope for B and another guy or two to break thru......Other than thinking they have a 3 for next year, that seems reasonable. There has to be projection no matter what, no one gets enough innings the rest of the way to "know" anything.....

I doubt we see a guy they really trust to be a 3 next year...as Jax, Ober, and Barnes are going to get most of the starts, and none of those is a 3.....I would wager Ryan and 1-2 others get 3ish starts, but we'll see.

Frankly, it is all about a trade/FA next year, plus Maeda, plus either Pineda or another similar player.....then a bunch of starts from like 5 guys (unless someone really breaks thru), with a few starts from others.

[Dodecahedron]

On 7/31/2021 at 5:38 PM, Mike Sixel said:

If managers really mattered, they'd make A LOT more money. Like, a WAR from players is worth 5-10MM per WAR.....if  a manager could win 10 extra games for a team, what would a team pay for that? 

Bud Grant was vocal on coaches being underpaid.  Let's just say NFL coaches are no longer underpaid.

Who has been vocal about MLB managers being underpaid?  Unless managers come together and demand to be paid what they should be, they will continue not to be......

 

[Rosterman]

Wasn't it 2019 that the Twins never lost more than two games in a row...seldom. Plus they won series like yahoo~! 

 

The problem has purely been pitching this season. Not having the guy that pitches the long great game (win or lose) consistently, and often can stop or hold another lineup to limited offense (i.e. 4 runs or less.

 

The Twins, also, coming off success should've improved. They needed a real closer and leave the setup to the Duffey and Rogers tandem. And then  build out from there. Also, the Twins got caught in the unpredictable. Losing so many of the extra inning runoffs. It takes a special kind of pitcher to start an inning with a runner in scoring position. You usually have that, except that getting to the tie game you already used that guy. that seems un obtainable when you lose more than two games in a row...consistently.

 

When you win, you can set your rotation out of the pen. When you lose, there are no safe or hold opportunities, so you have to use guys for the sake of getting them in a game while you wait and wait and wait for the win.

 

Average, on a whole, is down in major league baseball, yet people are still getting on base and still hitting homeruns. The Twins need to work more on getting runners moved over, and have to address the Big One - Miguel Sano coming up with the bases load or any runners on base and killing the inning with a strikeout, often a real bad strikeout.

 

Baseball has become too much of a game of looking at sheets and video and stats and not just playing the game. Once the game begins, i

t can always change, according to pitching matchups, and especially condition of players.

 

Are players too strong? Is this sport going the way of wrestling with cut bodies and muscles that are not needed to swing a bat or throw a ball? It is, after all, a game. You throw the ball, the batter swings and misses, or hits it. Someone fields it. A play is made. The ball goes up or down. People try to do too much, or sometimes too little.

 

And in the end, no matter who you are as a team, one of the duo has to win, and the other lose. Often the best of teams suffer because of just a fielding mistake, a wild-pitch, or a botched double play.

 

Now let's get back to playing baseball, and lineup construction where Max Kepler leads off, Luis Arraez bats clean-up, and Sano always comes up with runners on base, or he gets that extra at bat in a game.

 

[Twodogs]

On 8/1/2021 at 6:07 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

There is more than one way to win in baseball. The 2014 Royals had a decent rotation (12th best ERA in baseball) and lost the World Series.

The 2015 Royals had a bad rotation (22nd in ERA in baseball) and won the World Series.

Having the best pitcher in the world helps but it's far from a guarantee of anything. How many rings do deGrom and Cole have? How many did Santana win?

Well KC didn't exactly have terrible starters.  I mean I don't remember which year but I know Volquez must have pitched over 200 innings and Ventura had a few really good years in a row there before he died and he threw 100mph then there was Shields and Young who were no slouches.  What I'm saying is that who knows, Ventura may be the equivalent of Scherzer or Verlander today had he not died.  So they did have a couple of go to guys in their rotation, and of course their bullpen was lights out.  But I mean their offense hardly had anyone who hit 20 home runs?  I don't think that looking to put together an offense where no one can hit barely over 20 bombs is the best way to go, but the Royals did it.  But I still don't think it's the best way.  And let's look at the teams that have won.  Dodgers, pretty good starting pitching, Nationals, pretty good starting pitching, Astros pretty good starting pitching.  I mean there is a general theme here.  Even if a team doesn't have that great of a rotation usually they have a dude or two who can shut people down, maybe not much behind that so the over all rotation can be average, but usually a dude here and there.  That's the thing in a series having a guy that is most likely going to win 2 maybe 3 games you really really increase your chances of being able to win the series.  Not saying it's the only way to get things done, but it's the easiest way to get it done with the pitching. 

[Platoon]

The Twins seem to lean heavily on offense as a basis for their roster. Whether that’s for financial reasons or in house theory is hard to say. But, pitching is extremely expensive, for a reason.

I think 2019 was the outlier, everyone had career years. 2020 was such a fluke year how would one know. We spent the entire season playing in a very weak division. 
 

This year the injuries did pile up. The roster decisions did not pan out. And a significant group of players are not having career years. But the sad fact is that it appears this present group which was to lead us from the wilderness isn’t ever going to. Some just may not be that good, Kepler. Some can’t stay on the field, Buxton. Some just can’t be figured out, Sano. Then there are those who can hit, but whose defense deeply cuts into their effectiveness, Garver and Polanco. 
 

On the pitching side, the starters are "analytically" held to short starts. So the game can be turned over to a bullpen which couldn’t hold a chihuahua, not to speak of a bull. Sooner or later the Twins organization will find out you need pitching to win. Frankly I think they know that, but for whatever reason won’t expend the resources to make it happen. 

[Number3]

They are 18 games under .500 and now the tough part of the schedule begins to run out the last 2 months. How much of a fluke this season is in many ways depends on how they compete in these last 56 games unless they have a way to totally shake up the entire roster. On that note, I watched Baltimore beat the Yankees last night and even though the Os still have a worse record than the Twins they seemed to have more team spirit and enjoyment of the game than the Twins when I have been able to catch them on the air. For what its worth that comes from the person holding the lineup card. I get the impression that Baldelli is not much fun to play for.

[RpR]

I agree with you totally, watch baseball highlights, other teams , including those in the cellar, look like they are having fun and show it.

Polanco's greeting after hitting the winning home run looked like a wake.

Twins announcers are about as enthusiastic as the add they run for cremation services.

Without Cruz the team spirit is gone.