Trade Deadline Tracker: Twins' News and Rumor Roundup

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

Here's what's going to end up happening today;

 

Padres gets:

SP Jose Berrios

OF/1B Matt Wallner (#13)

1B Miguel Sano (1yr/$9.25m)

(Maybe $5m in cash for Hosmer contract??)

 

Twins get:

SP Ryan Weathers (#1)

SP MacKenzie Gore (#5)

LHP Jagger Haynes (#17)

1B Eric Hosmer (1yr/$21m)

 

The Padres get their #2 for 1.5 years behind Darvish as Paddack and Snell have ERA's over 5.00 and have showed signs of improvement but the clock is ticking and the Padres are 5 games back of the Giants.  Berrios immediately pushes them back to favorites in the NL West and there is a very good chance they could look to sign Berrios long term just as the Darvish contract is coming to an end.  And they get to unload a majority of the Hosmer contract for 2022 while taking Sano back to take his place in the lineup for the rest of the season.  If the Padres want a pay off for all of the moves they made and the money they have spent to get past the Dodgers, the prospects should be worth it to them since they are young and have tons of other pitchers in their Top 20.  Wallner is a throw in that could maybe help out their 1B spot within 2 years.  

 

The Twins get Weathers who could literally slide in behind Maeda tomorrow and could easily hold down that spot for the next 5 years, and bonus, he's left handed and meets the Pre-Arb requirement the Twins had.  And in Gore, the Twins get another LHP who could push for the #1 spot as soon as next year.  Haynes is 18 years old and in the Rookie and is added in for taking Hosmer off the Padres books.  But he is a lottery ticket with Weathers and Gore being the score in this deal.  

 

Discuss??

Pipe dream without Hosmer. Non-starter, with Hosmer.

[Mike Sixel]

If there is really this much interest, we'll be waiting until tomorrow for either Berrios or Pineda to go, imo. They'll want to extract maximum value....

[Dodecahedron]

Zero chance of that one.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If there is really this much interest, we'll be waiting until tomorrow for either Berrios or Pineda to go, imo. They'll want to extract maximum value....

Not sure about that. Their best offer in hand might be attached to a deadline - the other team might have a plan B for if they get outbid on Berrios, and could demand enough of a window of time to carry it out. A deal today won't surprise me, if the FO judges that the "best result possible" today is only slightly inferior to a theoretical "best possible result" tomorrow.

[nicksaviking]

Maybe I'm alone, but the Padres pitching prospects don't get me too excited. There have been whispers of concerns about Gore for longer than just his slump this year. I also have little interest in Weathers unless he was just some kind of auxiliary piece, which he won't be because he's got some hype now. If he can't miss bats and he's throwing a four-seamer and a slider, that's a big red flag in my book. League's going to catch up to him in short order giving up that much contact. Maybe that four-seamer is some kind of hybrid and it's more like a sinker? Either way, not interested.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Maybe I'm alone, but the Padres pitching prospects don't get me too excited. There have been whispers of concerns about Gore for longer than just his slump this year. I also have little interest in Weathers unless he was just some kind of auxiliary piece, which he won't be because he's got some hype now. If he can't miss bats and he's throwing a four-seamer and a slider, that's a big red flag in my book. League's going to catch up to him in short order giving up that much contact. Maybe that four-seamer is some kind of hybrid and it's more like a sinker? Either way, not interested.

Concur. Dodgers, TOR, SEA are the systems to go for for pitching. DO IT!

[Steve Lein]

 

[Steve71]

Well, May is not going to be in the 2022 SP rotation for the Dodgers until late in the year at the earliest.  Will not pitch until summer, ready by the Fall?  And who knows how TJS will impact his velo and control?

May is a huge boom or bust target.  Substitute Miller and/or Pepiot in some combination for less upside, no injury (yet).

I want pitching from the Dodgers.

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, Steve Lein said:

 

I was just coming here to post this. Cross San Diego off the list. 

[Steve71]

OK, Rosenthal now reporting Scherzer to the Padres.

LADodgers, Seattle, Toronto, Boston, or San Fran.  Give us your best shot for Berrios....San Diego, too, if they want both of them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

[chopper0080]

A couple thoughts.

 

I would prefer the Twins keep Kepler. I don't believe they are going to get a return that is worth getting rid of his versatility, level of play and contract value.

 

I would prefer the Twins to keep Buxton. Even if he is oft-injured, he is the closest thing we have to a super-star and his contract demands don't seem exorbitant from what has been reported.

 

I would love to see Donaldson traded just to get a nice look at Miranda but I don't see it happening and it isn't the end of the world. 

 

I have a tough time seeing the Twins keeping Berrios just because I believe they will get a really good offer. I don't know that it will be an over-the-top one, but definitely a quality deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

[LA VIkes Fan]

Padres out. Dodgers in? They look like the best option from a talent standpoint. They have a lot more to trade us than Seattle or Toronto, particularly pitching. 

By the way, I live in LA and follow the Dodgers. Close to zero chance that they will trade us Dustin May for the reasons I explained before. Think about Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Lux at the controlled MLB level and Josiah Gray and Ryan Pepiot at the prospect level. Some combination of that group is much more likely. 

 

[gunnarthor]

I would think the Padres getting Scherzer would push the Dodgers to improve their rotation but I'm a bit surprised not to hear a lot about the Phillies. I don't think they'd be in on Berrios but maybe Pineda? They are only 4 GB from a very catchable Mets team.

I came into today thinking it was a coin flip on whether Berrios gets moved but now it looks pretty certain. I really hope we nail this trade.

[Linus]

With Scherzer off the market things should really get interesting for the Twins.   There are enough teams with good prospects that we should get a haul. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

I would think the Padres getting Scherzer would push the Dodgers to improve their rotation but I'm a bit surprised not to hear a lot about the Phillies. I don't think they'd be in on Berrios but maybe Pineda? They are only 4 GB from a very catchable Mets team.

I came into today thinking it was a coin flip on whether Berrios gets moved but now it looks pretty certain. I really hope we nail this trade.

They better get this trade right......or I'm going to turn on them for sure.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I would think the Padres getting Scherzer would push the Dodgers to improve their rotation but I'm a bit surprised not to hear a lot about the Phillies. I don't think they'd be in on Berrios but maybe Pineda? They are only 4 GB from a very catchable Mets team.

I came into today thinking it was a coin flip on whether Berrios gets moved but now it looks pretty certain. I really hope we nail this trade.

Also, not in love with the Phillies prospects......they'd have to include 2 of their top 5 for me to even think about it. 

[Minny505]

 

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Padres out. Dodgers in? They look like the best option from a talent standpoint. They have a lot more to trade us than Seattle or Toronto, particularly pitching. 

By the way, I live in LA and follow the Dodgers. Close to zero chance that they will trade us Dustin May for the reasons I explained before. Think about Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Lux at the controlled MLB level and Josiah Gray and Ryan Pepiot at the prospect level. Some combination of that group is much more likely. 

 

Good insight. Twins likely have no interest in Lux. 

Maybe Gonsolin, Gray, and Amaya? Can throw in Pineda for a B prospect if they need another MLB ready arm to fill out the rotation for the rest of 2021.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Minny505 said:

 

Good insight. Twins likely have no interest in Lux. 

Maybe Gonsolin, Gray, and Amaya? Can throw in Pineda for a B prospect if they need another MLB ready arm to fill out the rotation for the rest of 2021.

You aren't getting Gray, IMO. Has any top prospect been dealt in a few years?

Think guys in the 45 range....maybe one of the 50s.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=lad

[ToddlerHarmon]

5 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

1. Don't trade Buxton, sign him. From what I read, the $80m guarantee is over 7 years is acceptable to both, the issue is the size of the escalators. There is a deal there, make it. The only way a midmarket team can keep someone this talented is to get lucky and take risk. That's what we need to do here.

...

4. The other exception is Pineda. Only trade him if you can get a solid to good return in the form of pitching that can be on the MLB roster next year or a shortstop. If you can't get that, try to re–sign him NOW. He wants to stay, is a solid number 3 or number 4 starter (#3 if he gives you 30 starts, #4 the more likely event he gives you 20 starts) and he wants to stay. 2 years $20 - $25 million.

First, this whole comment is great in both vision and detail.

Second, a note on these two items in particular. Your point about risk is well taken here. To compete with teams that can spend twice what the Twins can, they have to have luck not just in drafting (Buxton) and in comebacks (Pineda), but ALSO in injuries and in development of those same players. This means they have to buy lotto tickets like a Buxton contract or a Pineda contract (or Sano or Kepler or Polanco from past years) in order to make it to the top.

Which may seem obvious to some of you. But it wasn't obvious to me, until LA Vikes Fan said it out loud.

[LA VIkes Fan]

2 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

 

Good insight. Twins likely have no interest in Lux. 

Maybe Gonsolin, Gray, and Amaya? Can throw in Pineda for a B prospect if they need another MLB ready arm to fill out the rotation for the rest of 2021.

I disagree. The Twins should be very interested in Gavin Lux. He's a good fielding shortstop and as a pre-–arb player he would be on the team for at least the next 4 or 5 years. He hit a little when he was playing for the Dodgers while Seager was out before his injury (.227/.307/.359 (.656), and actually should be a quality shortstop who is at least a decent hitter. We do not have a shortstop at the moment. I think he could be at least a good fielding decent hitting shortstop for the next 4 to 5 years and could be more at the plate as he developed.

I do agree with the poster that said getting Josiah Gray is going to be difficult, particularly if we get Tony Gonsolin. If we can't get Gray, I would suggest Ryan Pepiot. He said AA now, doing quite well, and could project out to at least mid-rotation or better in the next 2 – 3 years. Frankly, I would be willing to throw in any reliever on the Twins roster other than Rogers or Duffy if we could get Gonsolin, Lux, and Pepiot. Of course removing Rogers and Duffy probably removes anybody the Dodgers might actually want. But who knows what's being offered.

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan Pepiot is my target in that pitching group.....

[gunnarthor]

Pepiot seems to be #7 in the Dodgers system. Some question on whether he's a starter long term or a strong relief pitcher. He spins the ball well, which this FO seems to like. He's already 23 in AA.

[gunnarthor]

 

[gunnarthor]

 

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan Pepiot and Andy Pages and a 40 value guy for Berrios......Pages bats R and is only 20ish in A ball. 

I'd prefer a SS, but Pages looks legit and they Twins could use a righty OF who can also actually field.

[Minny505]

13 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I disagree. The Twins should be very interested in Gavin Lux. He's a good fielding shortstop and as a pre-–arb player he would be on the team for at least the next 4 or 5 years. 

I have not watched Lux play SS so maybe it's a small sample issue, but in the 471 innings he has played SS for the Dodgers he has been a -9.5 UZR / +1 DRS / -4 OOA. 

Is he better than that? If not, he seems redundant with Polanco on the roster. He'd probably be in the bottom 5 defensive SS (out of the roughly 20 that play enough innings to qualify each year) in the league. Call me old fashioned, but I have really enjoyed Simmons at SS and would rather have an gold glove, no bat SS than another Polanco. 

I'm willing to change my mind if he can truly handle the position. I don't need a glod glover there, but I'd prefer above average.

[LA VIkes Fan]

1 minute ago, Minny505 said:

I have not watched Lux play SS so maybe it's a small sample issue, but in the 471 innings he has played SS for the Dodgers he has been a -9.5 UZR / +1 DRS / -4 OOA. 

Is he better than that? If not, he seems redundant with Polanco on the roster. He'd probably be in the bottom 5 defensive SS (out of the roughly 20 that play enough innings to qualify each year) in the league. Call me old fashioned, but I have really enjoyed Simmons at SS and would rather have an gold glove, no bat SS than another Polanco. 

I'm willing to change my mind if he can truly handle the position.

The Dodgers think he can, or at least that’s what they’re saying. I will say though, I wasn’t very familiar with Jacob Amaya until you mentioned him. The more I read the more interesting he becomes. Maybe a package built around pitching with Amaya as part of it works. My only concern is Amaya is not hitting at all in AA this year (.218/.301/.366) so he may still be a couple of years out. We are going to need a regular shortstop starting either the day after we trade Simmons or by opening day next year.

[nicksaviking]

29 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You aren't getting Gray, IMO. Has any top prospect been dealt in a few years?

Think guys in the 45 range....maybe one of the 50s.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1&team=lad

I think that was a 2020 problem. Teams are certainly tighter with prospects then they were when Terry Ryan made a name for himself, but I think competitive teams who want to win now will still play ball. Mike Clevinger got Aries last year, and Quantrill was a top 50 guy the year before but he lost his prospect eligibility. The Padres also traded Taylor Trammel last year to Seattle.

But last year was an infamously tight trade deadline, there weren't many sellers.

In 2019 Greinke got Bakauskas and Corbin Martin. Somehow Shane Greene got Joey Wentz. Derek Fischer got moved but that was an oddball situation. Jazz Chisholm got moved too.