Trade Deadline: GM For A Day

[roger]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Nice plan!  The only thing I would do slightly different is move Donaldson if a good decent is available.  I think our chances of being a real contender in 2022 is very low.  By 2023 he will be in his age 37 season.   I would rather give Miranda or perhaps even Lewis a chance to get established in 2022.   Miranda is unlikely to ever be as good as Donaldson in his prime but there is a good chance he is as good as 37 y/o Josh Donaldson.  Take that money and invest in pitching or a SS next year and you are no worse in 2022 and better (probably) in 2023.  We would need to send money with him.  However, it could be distributed over this year and next with no obligation in 2023.

With Berrios leaving, this plan definitely does not bet on 2022 but it is also far from a rebuild.  Adding Ryan and Strotman to Balazovic / Duran / Canterino / Winder / Enlow / Sands plus whatever we get for Berrios and Pineda gives us a very good bet to establish 3-4 SPs over the remainder of this year and next.  That will provide the financial flexibility to retain Buxton, sign a top FA pitcher and even sign a SS if needed.  

I have always thought there was a real possibility Lewis would slide over to third base when he arrives.  I also was assuming Buxton would be here long-term and stay somewhat healthy.  Yes, prospects aren't proven big leaguers until they get it done at Target Field, but I expect Miranda may have eliminated that option for Lewis.  Will now be shocked if Miranda isn't manning third for years to come.

[gunnarthor]

10 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think Kiriloff is a 1B, not an OF.  The team still has a spot for Kepler and, let's face it, if Buxton is our CFer we better damn sure have a guy that can slide over too.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but I think Kepler has some value in trade with other teams despite some mediocre stats. He's a good piece but he's not a vital cog like Buxton or Berrios. He's already 28. I wish we had more depth in the corners right now but we have some depth. And if Buxton doesn't stay healthy, it doesn't matter.

This team has almost no pitching so they have to start moving bats to get pitching. Kepler and one of Polanco/Arraez is a good start to get pitching.

[IndianaTwin]

I'm going to add a suggestion that will help convince fans that it's not a sell-off. 

Buy. 

Not as in "buy for this year," but "buy for next year." One of the guys supposedly available is Kyle Gibson and his 156 ERA+, with $8 million on the contract for next year. In keeping Berrios and Maeda, it's going to be very difficult to sign three SP studs, let alone two. If the baseballtradevalue site is of any worth, it says it would "only" take something like Sabato (a 1B, where we seem to have depth) to get him.

  

[Karbo]

Looks like Seattle is out. Trading Graveman signals they will be sellers not buyers.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Looks like Seattle is out. Trading Graveman signals they will be sellers not buyers.

Not necessarily. Their GM is a trader. 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not necessarily. Their GM is a trader. 

They did deal for a starter yesterday....

[TheLeviathan]

46 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you but I think Kepler has some value in trade with other teams despite some mediocre stats. He's a good piece but he's not a vital cog like Buxton or Berrios. He's already 28. I wish we had more depth in the corners right now but we have some depth. And if Buxton doesn't stay healthy, it doesn't matter.

This team has almost no pitching so they have to start moving bats to get pitching. Kepler and one of Polanco/Arraez is a good start to get pitching.

Vital?  No, but he's not being paid like he's vital.  He's being vastly underpaid for how useful, versatile, and good he is.  Plus, we've seen the upside there too.

I think all you'll get for Kepler is people trying to steal an undervalued asset, you won't get someone to pony up.

[gunnarthor]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Vital?  No, but he's not being paid like he's vital.  He's being vastly underpaid for how useful, versatile, and good he is.  Plus, we've seen the upside there too.

I think all you'll get for Kepler is people trying to steal an undervalued asset, you won't get someone to pony up.

That's true, I would assume/hope that the FO makes a good trade which might be wishful thinking on my part. It does sound like the Twins want to be blown away -

https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/why-the-new-york-yankees-should-trade-for-minnesota-twins-outfielder-max-kepler

[Mark G]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

For starters, the Twins are not clearing out their ML roster and I have not heard anyone suggest they do so.  However, that practice has been both common and successful when teams are looking to rebuild.  KC started their rebuild that led to a WS victory after 20 years of futility by trading Zack Grienke.  Their CF (Cane) and SS (Escober) came from that trade.  The Astros traded every player on their roster with any experience when they started their rebuild.  The Whitesox trade Sale and Eaton and they would not be in the position they are today without the multiple good players that came out of that trade.  We could go on but what's the point because that is not what the Twins are looking to do.

So far, the Twins have traded one player on an expiring contract and will trade more expiring contracts.  I guess what I would suggest where this practice is concerned is to look around the league a little.  Read some baseball news or listen some baseball radio shows/podcasts.  Literally EVERY (when out of the playoff race) purges expiring contracts in hope of future improvement.  It is not just common, it's standard practice.  So, yes, failure to acknowledge this is a standard practice is going to put you in the minority because most of us pay attention to the practices across the league.

Where Berrios and/or Buxton are concerned, that's a little different.  The are under contract until the end of 2022.  The difference is basically two-fold.  They could bring back players that are difference makers for 6+ years.  The FO has to weigh the value of the impact on 2022 by keeping them IF they get a great offer  VS  the impact on multiple years.  Some of us weigh those variables and conclude the team would be better off taking the assets than betting on 2022 based on the fact we have many holes to fill.  Others want to avoid letting good players go under almost any circumstance.  You might want to take a look at what the Rays have done in recent years.  They have clearly demonstrated the value of maximizing asset value. 

I think sometimes folks misunderstand what I am saying when I lament the state of the game today.  I truly get the way things ARE being done, I am only suggesting that is not the way they SHOULD be done, entirely from a fans perspective.  When my church group buys 75-100 tickets for an August game and takes their kids to see the Twins, they would like to recognize more than half of the players they just paid to see.  Because when the Twins replace their major league talent with AAA talent they don't lower their prices to AAA levels, they just assume we will keep coming.  I know I have said this before, but I am old enough to remember what trades are supposed to be, at least in the eye of the average fan.  It is fun for guys like us to sit and ponder these things, but my friends just want to see players they have grown to like.  And if these players have to go, at least get others they can find in the box scores, not on a minor league roster in some city they will never go to.   And, as much as I love the Rays, for every TB there is a Detroit or Baltimore that just never seems to get it right.  I feel for their fans.  I get the way it is; that doesn't mean I have to agree with it.  Every August the competitive balance changes, and not for the better.  And I will never win this debate, so on we go.   

[strumdatjag]

Trade Robles for a cheap box of rocks after his past performance 

[twinkiesfan11]

Love the 40 man roster considerations in your plan. One of the many hard lessons this FO needs to take from this disaster of a year is that they have done a very poor job scouting internally. I would hope to see a philosophy change going forward favoring keeping the protection fringe prospects over fringe veterans for the Rule V draft. Akil Badoo and Tyler Wells as recent examples wouldn't have saved this mess of a season but would have definitely been some bright spots to provide hope for better days ahead. In hindsight losing them both for nothing so Jake Cave, Shaun Anderson and others could remain on the roster is inexcusable. 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

I think sometimes folks misunderstand what I am saying when I lament the state of the game today.  I truly get the way things ARE being done, I am only suggesting that is not the way they SHOULD be done, entirely from a fans perspective.  When my church group buys 75-100 tickets for an August game and takes their kids to see the Twins, they would like to recognize more than half of the players they just paid to see.  Because when the Twins replace their major league talent with AAA talent they don't lower their prices to AAA levels, they just assume we will keep coming.  I know I have said this before, but I am old enough to remember what trades are supposed to be, at least in the eye of the average fan.  It is fun for guys like us to sit and ponder these things, but my friends just want to see players they have grown to like.  And if these players have to go, at least get others they can find in the box scores, not on a minor league roster in some city they will never go to.   And, as much as I love the Rays, for every TB there is a Detroit or Baltimore that just never seems to get it right.  I feel for their fans.  I get the way it is; that doesn't mean I have to agree with it.  Every August the competitive balance changes, and not for the better.  And I will never win this debate, so on we go.   

Were you around for the BLAH seventies, I was.

They had TV adds hyping the new rookie Twins while for a full decade they had a hard time exceeding .500.

I am assuming many of the posters have no idea how crappy that can be for a fan.

[nicksaviking]

Two months of Starling Marte got Jesus Luzardo? I know Luzardo has struggled this year but still only 23 with great stuff.

Color me interested in dangling Kepler around for everyone to see.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Two months of Starling Marte got Jesus Luzardo? I know Luzardo has struggled this year but still only 23 with great stuff.

Color me interested in dangling Kepler around for everyone to see.

I am really reluctant to trade Kepler given he is under team control (relatively cheap) through 2023.  The return has to be substantial.  It would also be more acceptable if it included a very good SS or high-end pitching prospects or one of each.  Peraza plus pitching from the Yankees could make it worthwhile.

[Winston Smith]

Can they trade Rocco?

[Mark G]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Were you around for the BLAH seventies, I was.

They had TV adds hyping the new rookie Twins while for a full decade they had a hard time exceeding .500.

I am assuming many of the posters have no idea how crappy that can be for a fan.

Yea, I started watching when I was 11 and they were in the World Series against the Dodgers.  Fell in love with it, and have been a fan ever since.  And, yea, the '70's sucked, didn't they?  As free agency took over, teams stopped making the trades they needed to make to fill holes; they just bought the players instead, and that led to what we see now, I guess.  Trades are to fill holes in your major league rosters.  The draft fills your farm with prospects.  But then, as I said, I lost this debate a long time ago. 

[operation mindcrime]

6 hours ago, Winston Smith said:

Can they trade Rocco?

Yeah back to Tampa Bay for Wander Franco!

[Mike Sixel]

As Kevin points out.... Hard to get top prospects anymore....

 

[nicksaviking]

37 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

As Kevin points out.... Hard to get top prospects anymore....

 

Yeah. Too bad, I only want quality. Heck, if they’re keeping these guys and planning on making 2022 their Alamo, the Twins might as well be trading their organizational #6-40 prospects for guys who still have one year of control.

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah. Too bad, I only want quality. Heck, if they’re keeping these guys and planning on making 2022 their Alamo, the Twins might as well be trading their organizational #6-40 prospects for guys who still have one year of control.

I could be talked into dealing for a few longer term pitchers, with quantity from the twins.... And shouldn't you be asleep?

[howeda7]

Trade:: Pineda, Robles and Thielbar.

Do what it takes to trade Donaldson and Sano (throw in some $ this year for the salary relief next year.)

Cut: Happ and Simmons.

Extensions: Berrios 5/$110. Buxton 5/$100 w $5m/year in incentives.

FA signings: Scherzer 2/$60. Eddie Escobar 2/$30. Relievers TBD $15 m

Fire: Rocco

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah. Too bad, I only want quality. Heck, if they’re keeping these guys and planning on making 2022 their Alamo, the Twins might as well be trading their organizational #6-40 prospects for guys who still have one year of control.

There are many fans that can't imagine a strategy that does not put heavy weight on 2022.  Team's however have learned that short-term focus is a good way to be bad often.  The Dodger's are a very good example.  Compare how they constructed teams 15 years ago.  Of course, their front office has heavy influence from the origin of these strategic practices practices which would  be the Tampa Bay Rays.  

Many fans don't look at all of the factors and determine the optimal strategies to get back to contention.  They assume a focus on next year and develop a plan from there.  As we have heard here, some fans dislike taking a step in order to improve in the future, even in a losing season.  This is not how good teams operate thus the refusal to give up top prospects.

The FO is not going to make "2022" their Alamo" unless they believe they are out the door if the team does not contend in 2022.  IMO, any baseball executive who looks at this team and goes all-in for 2022 should be terminated.  They need 3 starters, one of them at least as good as Berrios, and half the BP needs to be replaced.  The lost their best hitter.  Short-stop needs to be addressed.  Will Sano continue to be a liability?  Will Buxton stay on the field and is Larnach going to adapt?  I guess we should throw in will age catch up to Donaldson.  Is that a scenario in which you go to your board and recommend an all-in strategy?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

 

That's the system to go after! 

[gunnarthor]

 

[Dodecahedron]

If Scherzer is on the table, Berrios barely even qualifies as a consolation prize.  

Berrios should feel good about this, it's the only time in his career their names will be used in the same sentence by so many people.  It's the Learjet v. the Toyota Corolla.  

[gunnarthor]

19 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

If Scherzer is on the table, Berrios barely even qualifies as a consolation prize.  

Berrios should feel good about this, it's the only time in his career their names will be used in the same sentence by so many people.  It's the Learjet v. the Toyota Corolla.  

Through age 26 seasons

A- 36-35, 109 ERA+, 617 ip 10.1 WAR
B - 48-38, 104 ERA+, 659.6 ip, 10.9 WAR

This season -

A - 7-4, 135 ERA+, 105ip, 2.5 WAR
B - 7-5, 121 ERA+, 121ip, 2.3 WAR

Obviously, Berrios hasn't had the ten year run that Max eventually got (although he's on pace to have the better age 27 season as well). But maybe pitching in the NL will help him as well. But right now, Berrios is arguably the better pitcher and he comes with an extra year of control for less then the amount of money Max will make in the second half of this year alone.

[Dodecahedron]

12 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Through age 26 seasons

A- 36-35, 109 ERA+, 617 ip 10.1 WAR
B - 48-38, 104 ERA+, 659.6 ip, 10.9 WAR

This season -

A - 7-4, 135 ERA+, 105ip, 2.5 WAR
B - 7-5, 121 ERA+, 121ip, 2.3 WAR

Obviously, Berrios hasn't had the ten year run that Max eventually got (although he's on pace to have the better age 27 season as well). But maybe pitching in the NL will help him as well. But right now, Berrios is arguably the better pitcher and he comes with an extra year of control for less then the amount of money Max will make in the second half of this year alone.

When Scherzer was drafted, I added him to my keeper league immediately based on scouting reports.  Everyone thought I was crazy for doing that, but I was convinced he was a future HOFer.  My team stunk that year, for sure, but I knew good things were coming since I had him locked up.  In the long run, I was not disappointed.

I'm betting you won't find many stories like this about Berrios.  I don't think it's fair to argue that Berrios is anywhere near Scherzer, who will be in the HOF.  Berrios is fine, as is the Toyota Corolla, but a Corolla is a different experience than a Learjet.

[gunnarthor]

2 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

When Scherzer was drafted, I added him to my keeper league immediately based on scouting reports.  Everyone thought I was crazy for doing that, but I was convinced he was a future HOFer.  My team stunk that year, for sure, but I knew good things were coming since I had him locked up.  In the long run, I was not disappointed.

I'm betting you won't find many stories like this about Berrios.  I don't think it's fair to argue that Berrios is anywhere near Scherzer, who will be in the HOF.  Berrios is fine, as is the Toyota Corolla, but a Corolla is a different experience than a Learjet.

It's great your fantasy baseball team did well, I have no idea if anyone drafted Berrios in a keeper league and I can spend the rest of my life not remotely caring. Max ain't a learjet anymore.

[Dodecahedron]

4 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

It's great your fantasy baseball team did well, I have no idea if anyone drafted Berrios in a keeper league and I can spend the rest of my life not remotely caring. Max ain't a learjet anymore.

He isn't?  His 2021 year so far is 135 ERA+, 3.47 FIP, 12.2 K/9.  This is still #1 starter performance.  

Berrios has never hit any of those numbers in his entire career.