Pohlad: Twins "Absolutely Not" Having a Firesale

[Brandon]

They could resign Pineda in the offseason.  but I do expect them to trade as many expiring contracts as possible.  I can see Simmons and Pineda.  I am not sure about Robles.  I wouldn't just trade someone just to trade them.  He does provide value so the return has to be interesting at least.  

I would not be surprised to see Berrios traded either since the Pads and Dodgers are competing against each other and both have good farm systems to over pay for him.

I wonder how far apart the Twins and Buxton are on an extension?  THey seem to be close on the guarenteed part.  I bet they get that extension worked out.  

So for next season if the Twins resign Pineda and have Maeda and they get pitching for Berrios with the other prospects we already have, The Twins would need to sign 1 really good pitcher to replace Berrios and hope that at least 1 of the prospects work out by next year.  Dobnak could be back for the 5th starter, and with his contract they will give him more chances.

I said that to say we can afford to keep Donaldson and improve the pitching or get a competetive rotation set up for next season.  and hopefully work out an extension with Buxton.

 

[Dodecahedron]

Pohlad could do himself some favors by speaking up to the fans more often.  The last time I remember him making significant comments to the media was during the "Total System Failure" days. 

I suppose we can take this as an indicator that things are being taken seriously.  We woke up the bear.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

First, Schoop left two seasons ago and has signed two contracts since that point. The Twins didn't "drop" him, he signed somewhere else.

Second, Schoop has been worth 2.2 rWAR this season. Arraez has been worth 2.1 rWAR in about 70% of the plate appearances.

We have a slew of things to complain about with this front office. That ain't one of them.

Jonathan Schoop Becoming the Odd Man Out

 

The blah, blah, blah about Arraez turned out to be the same Pie-in-the-Sky wishful thinking that this area is full of. and Adrianza is also gone.

 

[RpR]

Bringing Jonathan Schoop Back Could Help Stabilize the Twins

https://zonecoverage.com/2021/mn-twins-news/bringing-jonathan-schoop-back-could-help-stabilize-the-twins/

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

Jonathan Schoop Becoming the Odd Man Out

 

The blah, blah, blah about Arraez turned out to be the same Pie-in-the-Sky wishful thinking that this area is full of. and Adrianza is also gone.

Arraez has had injury problems but has been equally valuable to Schoop in 70% of the playing time. Losing Schoop isn’t a problem, which was what you said.

Adrianza has been replacement level this season. Again, not the solution the Twins need. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Gausman has had one year of productive baseball, prior to that he's been extremely inconsistent. 

Stroman is a sinkerballer who has never missed bats, that's the opposite of what the Twins need. Also, like Guasman, he's hardly been consistently useful.

These are the kinds of guys people who people end up looking the other way with their short track records of success then they come back to haunt you. Berrios has been about as stable as a pitcher can be. He's durable he misses bats and you know what you're getting with him.

Don't misunderstand, it's possible Gausman or Stroman will be good, but it's just as likely we'd regret the deal in short order. Go big or go for the upside low commitment lotto ticket types. Either way, the best moves in my opinion are to develop your own or trade for controllable upside arms.

Here are Gausman's FIPs. 3.99 (22), 3.41 (23), 4.10 (24), 4.10 (25), 4.48 (26), 4.32 (27), 3.98 (28), 3.09 (29), 2.99 (30). His swinging strike rates are very good and his velocity is stable in with a fastball averaging 94-95mph. His ERA relative to his FIP does bear comparisons to the good 'ol Ricky Nolasco deal, but Gausman has been way more effective. No idea what he'll actually command, especially considering he won't have a QO attached to him.

Stroman is better than Berrios. He's almost always been better than Berrios. He's better in ERA, better in FIP, better with consistency... I mean, when I start looking at things, it really makes me not want Berrios and want Stroman more, haha. Saying he's a sinkerballer who doesn't miss bats feels like a quote from Moneyball "he throws funny." How many "clunkers" has Stoman thrown this year allowing more than 3 earned runs? One. How many clunkers has Berrios had? Six. Stroman has 11 quality starts compared to Berrios' 6. I mean... he's just better. Unfortunately, that also might mean other people who are way smarter than I am in regard to how players are performing might push Stroman too high to chase in years and total dollars, especially in light of the lack of a QO on him, too.

Gausman and Stroman are both going to be over the $15MM AAV you talked about. Neither of them is going to get less than $18MM and Stroman way well get above $20MM, certainly more than $100MM total.

I, too, am haunted by the Ricky Nolasco signing, and I certainly wished the Twins would have gone bigger than Ervin Santana (which turned into a mixed bag). I dislike the idea of signing mid rotation guys in the borderline #3 or #4ish starters. A step back and they're borderline roster guys. That said... I hate the #5 signings for the Mike Pelfrey's of the world so so so much more because all it does is logjam MiLB guys who are probably better behind guys too expensive to cut and who are seemingly almost always painful to watch. Flashbacks to 4hr games with Mike Pelfrey serving up meatballs like an Italian grandma once every 35 seconds, though Gardy pranking him on that phone call made up for 75% of it.

I also don't think the Twins should go after Gausman or Stroman unless they also are intent on signing an ace. It's just a waste of money; however, if they do sign a front end starter, I would like them to get a Gausman or Stroman to provide upper rotation stability.

[ashbury]

I find it telling that the owner has to step up and be the face of the franchise during these difficult times.

[h2oface]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins have a silver lining to a terrible season right now in that they can get farm team talent to the MLB club and evaluate them without any risk to the season outcome. It remains to be seen if they're competent enough to do it.

How true. Rogers goes down, and who is brought up to take his active roster spot? 

Beau Burrows.

Who?

Beau Burrows!

Who?

Exactly. (The June waiver claim from Detroit, the team that takes all the Twins cast offs it seems, and Beau wasn't even wanted by Detroit.)

[jgfellows]

I believe it's a retool up to the moment that they trade Berrios and Buxton.  If they get traded, it's obviously a rebuild.

[purplesoldier4u]

Any STH's used to go to the offseason pump-fests? Sounds like Pohlad and StP are ready for another rousing round of BS.

[purplesoldier4u]

Beau Burrows? Could be worse.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I find it telling that the owner has to step up and be the face of the franchise during these difficult times.

I certainly don't want a meddlesome owner, but I'm not against the man in charge cracking his whip to remind those in the circus that people are watching and it's time to start acting accordingly.

[RickOShea]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Gausman has had one year of productive baseball, prior to that he's been extremely inconsistent. 

Stroman is a sinkerballer who has never missed bats, that's the opposite of what the Twins need. Also, like Guasman, he's hardly been consistently useful.

These are the kinds of guys people who people end up looking the other way with their short track records of success then they come back to haunt you. Berrios has been about as stable as a pitcher can be. He's durable he misses bats and you know what you're getting with him.

Don't misunderstand, it's possible Gausman or Stroman will be good, but it's just as likely we'd regret the deal in short order. Go big or go for the upside low commitment lotto ticket types. Either way, the best moves in my opinion are to develop your own or trade for controllable upside arms.

Baldelli should know the recipe for developing pitchers, after being in the Rays organization.  Send Wes Johnson undercover to the Mets, and he'll learn how to develop pitchers, although not necessarily durable ones.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

How true. Rogers goes down, and who is brought up to take his active roster spot? 

Beau Burrows.

Who?

Beau Burrows!

Who?

Exactly. (The June waiver claim from Detroit, the team that takes all the Twins cast offs it seems, and Beau wasn't even wanted by Detroit.)

Calling up Burrows is definitely a major strike against Levine in my opinion. Burrows is clearly not ready and has no business on an MLB 26 man roster. He's a project who will need months of work to fix in the unlikely event that's even possible. Keeping him in the minors (preferably A+ or AA) where he can work to figure out what his secondary pitch is and how to use it is the way you handle projects like him. AAA is for showing polish and MLB is when you have little left to prove in the minors.

But like I suggested, this is an opportunity for the Twins front office to show their competence or incompetence.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I certainly don't want a meddlesome owner, but I'm not against the man in charge cracking his whip to remind those in the circus that people are watching and it's time to start acting accordingly.

Sending veiled messages to his underlings via the media would be pretty passive-aggressive, given that he must know their direct-dial phone extensions.

I took it as being willing to take some heat off the FO. Reflects well on the owner to be willing, but if I were the top baseball guy in the organization I think I'd want to speak for the organization through thick and thin.

[Matthew Lenz]

I don't think the Twins should trade anyone who is under contract beyond this season, unless they are admitting to a full rebuild. And if that's case, then we better see the FO overhauled.

If I'm GM for a day, here's how I would handle the current roster:

• trade all expiring contracts, even if it's for a bucket o' balls.
• trade Astudillo because watching him play drives me nuts.
• Continue to work with Buxton on a deal.
• Keep Berrios until at least the 2022 deadline and see where he/the team is at in terms of the World Series (not just playoffs) picture. If they're out of it (likely)...deal him. If they're in it (long shot)...keep him and gain a comp pick when he signs elsewhere.
• Keep Maeda, Donaldson, Kepler, and Polanco for the duration of their contracts. We'll see the core change over the next few years (Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Balazovich, Wallner, etc) and we will need their veteran presence/leadership.
• Garver and Arraez are valuable and should stay. Sano has no value so needs to stay. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Arraez has had injury problems but has been equally valuable to Schoop in 70% of the playing time. Losing Schoop isn’t a problem, which was what you said.

 

Really -- Arraez is at best a mediocre fielder.

In the past three years: 

Home runs: Schoop 48 -- Arraez 5

RBI               Schoop 142 -- Arraez 64

Batting Av. Schoop .274 -- Arraez .322

OPS            Schoop .791 -- Arraez .796

Put Outs    Schoop  767 -- Arraez 149

 

[TheLeviathan]

12 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Twins should be able to make some good FA signings without getting rid of Donaldson. I'd rather the Twins move Kepler and Rogers and keep Donaldson.

I really don't understand the reasoning here for preferences.  I'm not in the boat that thinks we have to deal Donaldson to acquire pitching (though...it wouldn't hurt), but in order of preference I can't see any good reason to keep Donaldson over either of those guys.

Kepler is younger, cheaper, healthier (most of the time), and a necessary piece to have around as Buxton insurance.  Rogers is the only part of our bullpen that isn't god awful and he's also cheaper, younger, and healthier.

Donaldson is a good hitter, he wasn't a bad signing, but he has a chance to fetch us something interesting before his legs make that contract look ugly.  Now is the time to move him IMO.  

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Really -- Arraez is at best a mediocre fielder.

In the past three years: 

Home runs: Schoop 48 -- Arraez 5

RBI               Schoop 142 -- Arraez 64

Batting Av. Schoop .274 -- Arraez .322

OPS            Schoop .791 -- Arraez .796

Put Outs    Schoop  767 -- Arraez 149

 

Arraez is defintely a bat forward infielder, but his defense at 2B over the past two years looks pretty average. Between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, the advanced metrics like UZR/150 and RF/9 give Arraez neutral marks. Fangraphs judges Arraez's defense easily superior to Polanco's (due to Polanco's consistently high error rates) with Baseball Reference showing Polanco to be slightly better than Arraez, probably due to Polanco's superior range. It's all small sample size stuff, though.

Schoop hadn't exactly been a great second baseman, especially leading up to and including his time with the Twins and that was over thousands of innings. Schoop's career UZR/150 is still negative at the position despite some really error free play over a small sample size with Detroit over the past couple years. Schoop, as you may not recall was horrible for a long period after a hot start for the Twins to the point he largely lost his job to rookie Arraez, who the Twins weren't high on, for a while. From June 1 to the July 31 trade deadline, Schoop was .245/.278/.413 wRC+ 74 while playing bad defense. It was that opening that honestly gave Arraez a chance. Luckily for Schoop, another injury forced Arraez into the outfield and Arraez's ankle injury allowed Schoop to even make the playoff roster (which was in question if he would). Schoop has been forced to sign 3 consecutive 1 year contracts in a row. Twins $7.5MM, Tigers $6.1MM and Tigers $4.5MM. Pretty much nobody in MLB was interested in him.

[Aerodeliria]

You say fire sale; I say garage sale. In any case, I think Kepler, Berrios, Buxton and Rogers are all on the table. Unfortunately, Robles almost eliminated himself after today's meltdown and Kepler certainly didn't help his trade value with three consecutive strikeouts against the mighty Tigers. 

[wabene]

11 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

I don't think the Twins should trade anyone who is under contract beyond this season, unless they are admitting to a full rebuild. And if that's case, then we better see the FO overhauled.

If I'm GM for a day, here's how I would handle the current roster:

• trade all expiring contracts, even if it's for a bucket o' balls.
• trade Astudillo because watching him play drives me nuts.
• Continue to work with Buxton on a deal.
• Keep Berrios until at least the 2022 deadline and see where he/the team is at in terms of the World Series (not just playoffs) picture. If they're out of it (likely)...deal him. If they're in it (long shot)...keep him and gain a comp pick when he signs elsewhere.
• Keep Maeda, Donaldson, Kepler, and Polanco for the duration of their contracts. We'll see the core change over the next few years (Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Balazovich, Wallner, etc) and we will need their veteran presence/leadership.
• Garver and Arraez are valuable and should stay. Sano has no value so needs to stay. 

I'm with you on everything except moving on from the FO. They definitely are at a low ebb with many of their moves this past off-season not panning out. They are also playing with a lot of Ryan's guys. To judge their talent acquisition and development accurately will take a while longer. Coming into this season many were optimistic based on the off-season. Happ had a track record and could be expected to replace Odorizzi. His age was a risk. I was sceptical about Dobnak, but many thought he was a good 5th starter option. The lineup looked formidable. I was stoked. Then the wheels fell off. Now we get to see how they all respond, Rocco included. The Cruz trade is a good start. They apparently haven't alienated Buxton. The quick hooks may have soured Berrios. We will see. In the meantime hopefully we get looks at Miranda, Ryan, Winder, Rooker, Moran, Cano, Strotman, Barnes and Hamilton along with the young players already up. While we're at it let's trim the hedges, Colome, Cave trim the 40 man.

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

I don't think the Twins should trade anyone who is under contract beyond this season, unless they are admitting to a full rebuild. And if that's case, then we better see the FO overhauled.

Is it your opinion the Rays were admitting to a full rebuild when they traded Snell ( 3 years remaining) last year or when they let Morton walk in free agency.  If not, how is the Rays situation different?  

Did the Twins go into full rebuild mode when they traded Pressly during the 2018 season?  If so, that's what we should do because they went from 78 wins to 101 wins.

What if their plan was to take the prospects for Berrios and replace Berrios with an equivalent or better free agent. Obviously, they need to succeed but they need to succeed resigning Berrios in the context beyond next year but that certainly would not be a rebuilding a strategy.  That would be a strategy the Rays have used to stay good with a fraction of the budget top revenue teams spend.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, RpR said:

Really -- Arraez is at best a mediocre fielder.

In the past three years: 

Home runs: Schoop 48 -- Arraez 5

RBI               Schoop 142 -- Arraez 64

Batting Av. Schoop .274 -- Arraez .322

OPS            Schoop .791 -- Arraez .796

Put Outs    Schoop  767 -- Arraez 149

 

In those those three years Schoop has made 14.2 million with a WAR of 5, and Arraez 1.2 million with a WAR of 4.6, So I will take Arraez every time in a situation like this.

And in my mind will say they extra 13 was used on Donaldson, and not the horse crap pitchers they brought in.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Is it your opinion the Rays were admitting to a full rebuild when they traded Snell ( 3 years remaining) last year or when they let Morton walk in free agency.  If not, how is the Rays situation different?  

Did the Twins go into full rebuild mode when they traded Pressly during the 2018 season?  If so, that's what we should do because they went from 78 wins to 101 wins.

What if their plan was to take the prospects for Berrios and replace Berrios with an equivalent or better free agent. Obviously, they need to succeed but they need to succeed resigning Berrios in the context beyond next year but that certainly would not be a rebuilding a strategy.  That would be a strategy the Rays have used to stay good with a fraction of the budget top revenue teams spend.

I agree that it isn't black and white, the Twins can do a little of both and still aim to compete next year (though I personally don't like half measures).

But the Rays situation is different because the Rays have shown the ability to crank out starting pitchers almost at will. The Twins have shown next to no ability to build that equity, then shift it to other areas of need by trading some. Since Berrios is the only top end starter they've developed in 20 years, it's not hard to see why some would see trading him as waiving the white flag.

[Dodecahedron]

23 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I agree that it isn't black and white, the Twins can do a little of both and still aim to compete next year (though I personally don't like half measures).

The Twins have a long history of half measures.  That's all that's required for playing in half a division.

But, of course, there is a huge difference between "competing" and winning in the playoffs, as we all know.  Can they compete next year?  Maybe, though probably not, and they're still a long way from winning in the playoffs.

[Battle ur tail off]

38 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I agree that it isn't black and white, the Twins can do a little of both and still aim to compete next year (though I personally don't like half measures).

But the Rays situation is different because the Rays have shown the ability to crank out starting pitchers almost at will. The Twins have shown next to no ability to build that equity, then shift it to other areas of need by trading some. Since Berrios is the only top end starter they've developed in 20 years, it's not hard to see why some would see trading him as waiving the white flag.

I agree. And if they trade any one of Buxton, Berrios, or Rogers. They flat out MUST get at least one guy AND develop him into a top line starter. This is where the FO should be making their money.

So far, neither that last FO nor this one has developed anyone that can start games and be in the top 1/3 of the league except Berrios. 

Trading for, or drafting and developing top line arms are what this organization has struggled at for quite some time. It needs to be better flat out or we will never see what we want to see here and that is winning playoff baseball games. 

[Mike Sixel]

Not really sure where to put this....but here is an article on 40 man crunches, and the Twins are listed.....

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/40-man-crunch-situations-american-league/

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not really sure where to put this....but here is an article on 40 man crunches, and the Twins are listed.....

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/40-man-crunch-situations-american-league/

Could this be a convincing argument to either sign a high profile (read "expensive") free agent or don't bother at all?

I know this franchise has a long, storied history of signing the Matt Shoemakers and Ramon Ortizes of the world but I'm okay with ending that particular historical trend for pretty much forever.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Could this be a convincing argument to either sign a high profile (read "expensive") free agent or don't bother at all?

I know this franchise has a long, storied history of signing the Matt Shoemakers and Ramon Ortizes of the world but I'm okay with ending that particular historical trend.

You can probably guess my opinion......plus, they'll be adding a few pitchers from the minors that aren't on the 40 man (hopefully) next year.....

I think the key is that they are much more likely to deal for guys in low A at this point, unless they include some prospects of their own in deals (which is what I'd do).

[Dodecahedron]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Not really sure where to put this....but here is an article on 40 man crunches, and the Twins are listed.....

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/40-man-crunch-situations-american-league/

This article seems misleading or maybe just plain not smart.  It's including players on the 60-day IL and saying teams are over 40 roster players because of that.  The conclusion written is that the Twins can only trade for prospects because they have no room.  That's not how the IL works.  The Twins are at 40 players, as one should expect.  Trading rental players will free up space.