Three 'Combination' Minnesota Twins Trade Packages

[Jamie Cameron]

Derek Falvey recently hinted the Twins are considering packaging MLB talent to maximize return value in a trade. What would a trade like this look like? What could the Twins get back?

In an interview with SiriusXM on Sunday, Minnesota Twins CBO Derek Falvey told Jon Morosi that trading a package of MLB players is ‘something we have talked about.’ With the news also breaking Sunday that Byron Buxton rejected the Twins’ long-term contract offer, the possibility that Minnesota engages in more extensive re-tooling seems to increase with each passing day.

Buxton seems increasingly likely to be dealt this off-season given his currently IL status. Outstanding lefty Taylor Rogers seems likely to be dealt in the landscape of a thin relief market. José Berríos, the club’s lone recent success story in developing starting pitching seems determined to test free agency and would fetch a steep trade price. Finally, there are the rentals, with Andrelton Simmons, Michael Pineda, and Hansel Robles all strong trade possibilities ahead of Friday’s deadline.

So what would a Twins ‘packaging’ of MLB players look like? What kind of return might they get?

Trade 1: Twins and Blue Jays

Jays Receive: RHP José Berríos and LHP Taylor Rogers

Twins Receive: SS Jordan Groshans (32), RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (68), MI Miguel Hiraldo

This is a certified blockbuster. It’s no secret the Jays are seeking pitching in a tight AL East and an extremely competitive AL Wild Card race. Losing Berríos and Rogers would sting, but the return is exciting. Groshans is the #32 prospect on baseball. Currently at AA, he has the tools to become a plus hitter with plus power. While the home run power hasn’t fully developed, Groshans is slugging .461 at AA in 2021. Standing at 6’3 with strong defensive instincts and an excellent arm, he may eventually be an MLB 3B.

Woods Richardson is the #68 prospect in baseball. 6’5 RHP a fastball which sits 91-95 mph, solid command, two decent breaking balls (a curve and a slider), and a changeup which is regarded as the best in the system. Richardson is thought to have a high floor for a prep pitching draftee and should develop into a number two or three starter.

Hiraldo is a 20-year-old MI, the number 17 prospect in the 17-18 international free agent class. Hiraldo has excellent bat speed which should develop into solid power. He has a strong throwing arm which allows him to play all infield positions. At worst, he should develop into a strong utility infielder.

Trade 2: Twins and Padres

Padres Receive: LHP Taylor Rogers and RHP Michael Pineda

Twins Receive: RHP Mason Thompson and RHP Steven Wilson

Beyond Tyler Duffey (assuming Rogers is traded) who do you feel confident about in the Twins bullpen in 2022? A second-half audition for the likes of Ian Hamilton, Jovani Moran, and Yennier Cano is surely around the corner. All that said, the Twins badly need bullpen reinforcements. In Rogers, the Padres get an outstanding back-end piece for their bullpen, and in Pineda, a starter who can offer them solid innings down the stretch. 

Mason Thompson was the 85th overall pick in 2016 (Padres #10 prospect). His early pro career was marred by injuries. He was finally healthy for the first time during the Padres instructional camp in 2020. Standing at 6’7, Thompson possesses a 60 grade, upper 90s fastball, and a power slider, both of which are good enough to miss bats. Thompson was added to the Padres 40 man roster in November to not expose him to the Rule 5 Draft. He projects as a late-inning reliever.

Steven Wilson checks in as the Padres #16 prospect. Currently, at AAA, Wilson has a 2.03 ERA in limited 2021 action, with 23 Ks in just 13 innings. Wilson is another prototypical reliever with a power fastball/slider mix. Wilson needs to continue to refine his command, but profiles as a seventh-inning reliever at the MLB level.

Trade 3: Twins and Mets

Mets Receive: RHP José Berríos and SS Andrelton Simmons

Twins Receive: 3B Brett Baty (73), OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, and RHP J.T. Ginn

The Mets, for once, are in a strong position. With a four-game lead atop the NL East, they need to fortify their roster to make a strong post-season run. The Mets have been heavily linked with Berríos for some time. Their off-season blockbuster acquisition, Francisco Lindor, recently went on the IL with a grade 2 oblique strain. Adding Andrelton Simmons would provide meaningful defensive coverage for Lindor until he returns, and trim some 2020 payroll for the Twins.

The Mets have a strong farm system and are a suitable trade partner for the Twins. In Brett Baty, the Twins acquire the #73 overall prospect in baseball. Currently, at AA, Baty is sporting a .382 OBP in over 200 ABs at Binghamton. He is on his way. Baty has gap to gap power, including opposite-field home run power. Though not an outstanding defender, Baty has the defensive capability to stick at 3B at the MLB level.

Crow-Armstrong is the Mets #5 prospect and the 19th overall pick in 2020. His progress has been significantly hampered by a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. Crow-Armstrong has plus speed and was rated as the best defender in the 2020 draft class. He has solid gap to gap power and a solid to strong hit tool. He profiles as a prototypical high average, high on-base leadoff hitter.

J.T. Ginn is the Mets #6 prospect, currently at A+. Ginn had Tommy John surgery as a Sophmore in college, dropping his draft stock slightly. Ginn has a fastball that sits 91-95 mph which tops out at 97. He also possesses a promising slider and changeup. In 44 innings pitched in 2021, Ginn has a 2.44 ERA and 41Ks, to go with a cool 0.92 WHIP. Ginn profiles as a mid-rotation starting pitcher if he continues to develop after his surgery. 

Note: I considered Matt Allan for this trade. He recently had Tommy John surgery, making him a more murky trade asset. 

Would you pull the trigger on any of these trades? Which Twins players do see as most likely to be packaged together in a potential trade?

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[Seansy]

I would rather get Mauricio instead of Baty but they are close to equivalent. Matt Allan is one guy I would like to target BECAUSE of the injury. Value lower due to the increased risk.

Can Rocker be traded once the Mets sign him?

[twinkiesfan11]

Replace Matt Allen with either Crow-Armstrong or Baty and I'd be on board with all three trades. Feels like a rebuild is coming, these three moves would be a hell of a way to kick that effort off. 

[chpettit19]

I'd prefer to try to pull Austin Martin from the Jays instead of Groshans, but would be very happy with that return. Don't think the Mets are giving up 3 of their top 6 prospects for Berrios and Simmons, so I'd be thrilled with that return. Padres trade seems quite reasonable and I'd be happy with that.

[terrydactyls]

12 minutes ago, twinkiesfan11 said:

Replace Matt Allen with either Crow-Armstrong or Baty and I'd be on board with all three trades. Feels like a rebuild is coming, these three moves would be a hell of a way to kick that effort off. 

Did you mean replace either Crow-Armstrong or Bath with Matt Allen?

[Musk21]

The Twins got 2 decent pitching prospects, including one who was rated #98 overall in 2020, for a 41 year old DH on an expiring deal. As one of one the better relief pitchers in baseball consistently for the past 6 seasons and still with 1 1/2 years of control, Taylor Rogers should have a bit more trade value than as just a throw-in as it seems in deals #1 and especially #2.

[lukeduke1980]

Good proposals.  I hope the returns are generally pitching heavy though, like the Cruz deal.

[bean5302]

I wonder about the perceived value vs. actual value of packaging top players, but packaging Simmons and Pineda or something like that might make sense and improve the quality of the prospect to high level (but still sub-elite).

Which does a team value more, a few mid level prospects or an elite prospect? I expect teams value their elite prospects more so they'd be unwilling to sacrifice elite prospects for players they could get non-packaged with a couple mid level prospects.

It's not like good relievers (though Rogers is excellent) are hard to find and Berrios or Buxton were already going to command an elite prospect by themselves. I don't see a team morgaging their entire future on a 1.5 years of Berrios and Buxton or giving up an extra elite prospect for throwing in Rogers.

[Jamie Cameron]

47 minutes ago, Musk21 said:

The Twins got 2 decent pitching prospects, including one who was rated #98 overall in 2020, for a 41 year old DH on an expiring deal. As one of one the better relief pitchers in baseball consistently for the past 6 seasons and still with 1 1/2 years of control, Taylor Rogers should have a bit more trade value than as just a throw-in as it seems in deals #1 and especially #2.

I agree with this. Proposal #2 is definitely a light return. I don't consider him a throw in for #1 but I agree they would probably try and get a Padres top 5 guy in #2.

[Lonestar]

Thompson and Wilson would be approximately fair for Pineda alone.

[twinkiesfan11]

On 7/22/2021 at 11:50 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've wondered about this a few times and I think it's a good question to ask. My answer is... maybe? I'd probably firesale those two players but may wait until the offseason to do it. Moving all those players in a single deadline will be quite a challenge, particularly given the state of Buxton's health.

 

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Did you mean replace either Crow-Armstrong or Bath with Matt Allen?

Yep, my bad. If the Mets were open to that type of deal I'd rather have Matt Allen + one of Crow-Armstrong or Baty. Probably Crow-Armstrong if the proposed Blue Jays trade was also in the works. But talent is talent, if the Twins can acquire multiple prospects of this level it's a win. 

[roger]

Can't agree with either of the Berrios trades.  Forget the second piece leaving the Twins, the Twins should be asking about the return you suggest just for Jose...or more.  He's the best pitcher available this July, he is a near ACE, he is young, durable and you have him for almost a year and a half.  That's gonna cost you your #1 prospect, plus, plus.

Wasn't it interesting what the Twins just got for Cruz after many were suggesting they would get little in return?

[strumdatjag]

Not to be a jerk here - But - Has TD ever posted a prediction of a trade and then that trade actually happened exactly as predicted?   Check the archives!

[Mark G]

I know this is the equivalent of spitting into the wind, and I am probably showing my age, but you need to get major league talent for Berrios, not AA prospects no matter what number you attach to them.  That level of starting pitching in MLB is simply too rare to not get something current in return, especially with a bidding war going on.  Talk to a team with a deep bullpen and get a decent arm back, then talk about AA guys. 

[Rigby]

Think I may prefer Martinez to Groshans.

[RonCoomersOPS]

None of these deals are remotely pitching-heavy enough, and the pitchers involved are generally not going to move the needle nearly enough.

[twinkiesfan11]

9 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

None of these deals are remotely pitching-heavy enough, and the pitchers involved are generally not going to move the needle nearly enough.

If a rebuild is the direction this is headed then the FO just needs to get as much talent in return as they can. If Buxton, Kepler, Donaldson and others are leaving they'll need high end position player prospects and not like the pitching pipeline is in poor shape. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

None of these deals are remotely pitching-heavy enough, and the pitchers involved are generally not going to move the needle nearly enough.

Pitching is obviously needed, but it's also the hardest thing to get teams to give up. Simeon Woods-Richardson would immediately become our second best pitching prospect, at worst. And add another arm that could debut this year even. Bringing in him and a top 100 up the middle prospect (I want Martin, but Groshans was what the article suggested) would be a huge get for the Twins in any deal. Throw in a second well regarded (but not top 100) up the middle prospect and it's hard to say the Twins really bombed. If they can bring back Pearson or Woods-Richardson, plus Martin or Groshans, and another top 10 Blue Jays prospect for Berrios I think they'd do that in a second. Adding Rogers to that deal changes things a little, but they still probably can't expect much more than that in a deal. Maybe get another low level lottery ticket thrown in for him.

But Simeon Woods-Richardson would move the needle as much as just about any reasonable return the Twins could be looking at in the next 5 days. There aren't many better arms that could possibly come back in a trade, realistically. And the Twins aren't even remotely loaded with up the middle talent in the minors. Most of their top position prospects are corner guys. Adding Groshans, or Martin, is definitely something this org could use. Depending what outlet you're looking at they'd possibly take over as the #1 prospect in the system and both could realistically debut next year. 

[nicksaviking]

I don’t know if I’m terribly interested in trading these guys unless top starting pitching prospects are the headline. 
 

I’m definitely not interested in trading the teams star reliever for reliever prospects though. 

[jorgenswest]

Overpays only for these three or keep the asset for 2022. I think these are fair deals but it overpays. 

I would also be cautious of buying high on any prospect. The small sample of this season really needs to be in line with previous seasons and we don’t have 2020 data. If a guy is riding this year to their highest prospect status regression should be expected. There might be more value in buying low.

[Dman]

I like the Blue Jays trade scenario the best but why are you trying to include a 3rd baseman (Groshans) in the deal when we have Donaldson at third and one of our top hitting prospect Miranda is looking like a third baseman?  Hiraldo profiles as a second baseman where we already have Polanco, Arraez, Gordon and some of the best guys in the lower levels profile there in Steer, Jullien and Severino.  Adding another guy like that does little to improve anything unless you make another trade but right now you have the power to ask for what you want and likely get it so I don't love this trade for the Twins.   I guess if you swapped out Hiraldo for Kloffenstien I could maybe live with that.  Groshans could be a plus defender at third and Miranda likely isn't so maybe some payoff depending on how their bats play out.  If I were the Twins I would not be collecting guys that profile at 2nd base at all as it is already a system strength.

I don't like the Padres system because it is pitching poor IMO.  They have some good to solid position players but I don't see them winning the Berrios sweepstakes.  Maybe if they include one of their top 3 prospects I could see it but if you are losing pitching you should be getting some back and something that hopefully has the potential to replace what was lost over time.

MLB trade rumors has the Mets out of the Berrios sweepstakes because he would cost to much in prospect capital.  It sounds like they are strictly going to go the rental route. So not sure why they would be included as they are a real long shot.

The team that matches up best IMO you never mentioned and that is the Dodgers.  They have a starting pitcher mess with Bauer and a closer who keeps blowing saves.  If ever there was a match made in heaven the Dodgers would be it.  They also have a system filled with some top end pitching and plenty of other prospects to choose from.  If a deal does get done it will most likely be with the Dodgers IMO.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

47 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don’t know if I’m terribly interested in trading these guys unless too pitching prospects are the headline. 
 

I’m definitely not interested in trading the teams star reliever for reliever prospects though. 

Sadly looking at the updated prospect list at least from the sportingnews, none of the contenders have the top 5- 10 overall prospect that I would require for Berrios. If I am giving Berrios and his 1 1/2 of control and the option to negotiate with him, I want a sure fire major league player, somebody like, Jimenez, Torres, Robles, Kopech, Buehler, Bichette not a bunch of players to fill out the prospect lists.

Also I agree with you I don't want any pitcher that is already a relief pitcher for Berrios or Rogers, the odds that a starter they get will end up being a relief pitcher anyway.

[Steve71]

Some thoughts on this most interesting time for Twins Fans:

I like Berrios and/or Rogers to the Dodgers.  They need both of them, and they have good pitching talent to trade.  Any discussion would have to start with Gray, who just made his MLB debut.

I like Pineda and/or Simmons to the Mets.  They don't want commitments for next year, but need SS help with Lindor's injury and starting pitching from Big Mike.  Make them pay, quality over quantity please.

Robles and/or Happ should be able to fetch a lottery ticket from someone.  Colome, not so much.

I would retain Donaldson unless someone gives a great offer, and the same for Buxton.  Don't want to trade at low value from Buxton, and STILL want to try and sign him to some type of creative contract this off-season.

Simple!  :)

[TwinsDr2021]

6 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

Robles and/or Happ should be able to fetch a lottery ticket from someone.  Colome, not so much.

As much as I hate to say it (threw up a bit in my mouth) Colome has pitched his way into being a mid relief pitcher for a good team, and could bring back a flyer on a guy in A ball.

He has been good in July (2.35 in 7.2 innings), was great in May (1.74 in 10.1 innings), and only gave up runs in 4 of 11 games in July and if you take away the disaster again Baltimore his ERA would be under 4.

I am not saying he should be pitching late in a game for any team, but he might help out a team early in the game.

[Mike Sixel]

I would really like a good SS prospect in a trade......but there aren't really any at AA or above on a contender (unless Groshans can stick.....so, next up I want SP and another catcher. I'd include Rortverdt in a deal to get a better catching prospect back (plus the pitcher).....

[MABB1959]

Don't let all this baloney (putting it nicely) make you feel better about anything.  Once again the Twins get by without giving out the big payday and they can say "we tried".   They have put us through this for YEARS now.  First and foremost, is they struggle to get prospects here, healthy and MLB ready.  They spend their years at AAA and by the time they get here it is always too late.  They need a new medical staff and a staff that can get the propects here before they are 30.  Our last first round pick Royce Lewis is no where to be seen.  Berrios and Buxton were the guys and now that it is payday time they are going to trade for more prospects or let them walk next year.  Am I the only one who sees this glass half empty scenario that plays out time and time again!

[TNtwins85]

I say no to all of these. If we’re trading Berrios we need at least 2 high ranking pitchers back. Why are we wanting corner infielders and outfielders? Our problem is pitching and we’re trading our best. We should be getting back 3 SP’s if not more. Yeah, it’s nice to get other teams top prospects but we have way more than enough outfielders for sure. Did we not just see the Cruz trade? Unless it’s a Buxton type outfield prospect we should not be the least interested. 

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

I say no to all of these. If we’re trading Berrios we need at least 2 high ranking pitchers back. Why are we wanting corner infielders and outfielders? Our problem is pitching and we’re trading our best. We should be getting back 3 SP’s if not more. Yeah, it’s nice to get other teams top prospects but we have way more than enough outfielders for sure. Did we not just see the Cruz trade? Unless it’s a Buxton type outfield prospect we should not be the least interested. 

They really need a SS, IF they can find a trade partner with a top SS prospect, that should be considered.

[Linus]

All of these are light and mis guided. We need starting pitching prospects not relievers and SS that can’t stick at short.  Berrios is the most valuable available trade piece at the deadline. If Berrios is traded the other team is going to need to hurt big time. 

[Game7-91]

Dangnamit.....this is all so depressing. Trading Berrios, imho, means we are starting over. The chances of receiving a SP in return of his quality is little more than a crapshoot. Twins have invested 9 years in developing this guy, have a few seasons of quality results to show for it.

SP is where roster construction starts. Why then would we even think about trading our most capable SP and one of the most durable SP in MLB ?

Trading him now seems to me a monumental organizational failure.

If he truly does not want to sign here, we have a full year to work it out, and if not, then do what we have to do next July-either trade him or ride it out if we are contending.

But now now. Makes no sense to me, and I am really tired of the gerbil wheel constantly in motion for the next Big Pitching Prospect, which, even in the remote chance this BPP would work out, we would be several years away from any meaningful impact at the MLB level.

Where's my Liter bottle of Pepto Bismol?