Trade Deadline Preview: The Tampa Bay Rays

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins have already completed one big trade with the Rays, sending them Nelson Cruz for two AAA pitching prospects. That was the obvious deal, but more possibilities could remain. However, the unwritten maxim of ‘don’t do business with the Rays unless you want to look foolish’ still holds. They have, perhaps, the sharpest front office in the game. So, let’s make a trade. What could go wrong?

What’s Their Situation?

As usual, the Rays are exceptional. As of July 22nd, their record stands at 57-39, 7th best in baseball, with the fifth-best run differential. The reigning AL champions will have their eyes set on another deep playoff run after being beaten by the Dodgers at the final hurdle in 2020. The Rays currently sit a game behind the surprising Boston Red Sox in a log-jammed AL East. The Blue Jays and Yankees are comfortably behind them but within a good week of breathing down their neck at the top of the division. At the time of writing, Tampa Bay has a 73% chance to make the playoffs, according to Fangraphs, comfortably fourth-best in the AL, behind the Red Sox, White Sox, and Astros. The Rays have a 2021 payroll of just over $69 million (makes you think), a whopping $59 million below league average. They can add and add creatively, but don’t expect them to take on any massive contracts. That’s not what they do.

What Do They Need?

Like most great teams, the Rays don’t have a lot of holes. By fWAR, they boast the 6th best offense and 9th best pitching staff in MLB. Their bullpen is solid (3rd best in MLB), while their starting pitching is less robust (16th). While their offense is potent, it’s aided by solid defense and excellent baserunning. Their 100 team wRC+ is good for 12th in baseball, even behind the eighth-place Twins (103).

Which Twins are the Best Fit? 

Nelson Cruz was the primary Twins' trade target linked to the Rays, and for good reason.  The Rays were keen to sign Cruz before he initially landed in Minnesota and could use a power boost to a robust and deep lineup which Cruz could provide. The Rays don’t have a glaring hole at DH, with the excellent Austin Meadows (122 wRC+) getting plenty of at-bats there. Still, Cruz is the type of luxury item you purchase in a season in which you want to return to and win your first World Series, particularly when you would only need to pay a prorated portion of his 2021 salary.

Starting pitching is the other area the Rays could strengthen. While he’s a fit in that he’s excellent, it’s hard to see the Rays pursuing Jose Berríos when they have Tyler Glasnow on the shelf and a stable of outstanding pitching talent close to MLB ready. Michael Pineda is a more logical fit to provide solid innings through the remainder of the season, which offers little respite in the AL East. Like Cruz, Pineda would be a rental. He would also be relatively cheap, compared to Cruz.

Who Could the Twins Get Back?

Examining the Rays top 30 prospects is genuinely a pleasure. Behind all that incredible MLB talent, they have a deeply stocked pantry of prospecty goodness. In choosing potential Twins targets, I’ll admit to being ambitious. Each of the Rays top five prospects are consensus top 100 MLB prospects, so I stuck to more projectable prospects in the 6-15 range, acknowledging that due to the strength of the Rays farm system, their 6-15 is better than most. Here are three prospects the Twins would likely covet from the Rays system.

Greg Jones, SS, A+

Jones and Ryan Jeffers have UNC Wilmington in common, the former being a supplemental first-rounder in 2019. As a prospect, Jones is an incredible athlete, showcasing 70-grade speed. He is a solid hitter who generates good bat speed and makes solid contact from both sides of the plate. Jones showcases the ability, athleticism, and defensive chops to stick at SS or move to 2B. However, some see it as likely he will eventually transition to CF at the MLB level.

Cole Wilcox, RHP, A

The Padres drafted Wilcox as the 80th overall pick in 2020. He was promptly shipped to Tampa Bay as part of the Blake Snell trade. Wilcox has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, which he uses consistently up in the zone, a strong slider, and an emerging changeup. Some believe Wilcox will eventually transition to a bullpen role. In 44 IP at High A so far this year, he sports a 2.03 ERA with 52 Ks. 

Seth Johnson, RHP, A

The Rays took Johnson as the 40th overall pick in the 2019 draft. He has a big fastball which tops out at 98 mph but usually sits 92-95 mph. Johnson also showcases an outstanding swing and miss slider and a loopy curveball. Johnson may end up as a reliever given his reliance on his fastball/slider combination but has the tools and athleticism to develop into an MLB starter if he continues to develop his third pitch successfully. 

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[Dman]

I was looking at Greg Jones for the Nelson Cruz trade but the Twins went close to the majors pitching instead which they probably needed more than a position player.  If they could find a way to pry Jones away I would do it even if they had to add Duffy or something else to the deal.  Jones has swing and miss issues but has the speed to play short and center and he carries a high OPS bat as well.  Swing and miss can be a volatile combination when trying to jump to the big leagues but I think he is worth the risk.

Any arm at the the top or even middle of the Rays system would be a good get.  So wouldn't be disappointed in another arm for Pineda but I like Jones the best.

Not sure if the Rays like Pineda that much or if they will go with someone else.  Will have to wait and see.

[Melissa]

Thanks for this, Jamie, all three young men you mention look to be promising!

[21bdp21]

Might have released this one a day or two late...

 

[Dodecahedron]

[Tim]

Taj Bradley is a pitcher I would target in any deal with the Rays. I think a Kenta Maeda deal might make sense for them, especially with the way his contract is structured... Slotted into the bullpen with the Dodgers during his tenure there as he struggled later in most seasons. Rays could deploy him in a similar manner while using him now as a starter. 

Josh Lowe + Taj Bradley for Kenta ? 

 

[Janet27]

Rays are not going to take on Pineda’s contract. They had to trade Rich Hill to lose his contract because of the Cruz trade