Jorge Polanco is Back on Top

[Cody Pirkl]

Jorge Polanco looked to be on the precipice of irrelevancy through the first month or so of the 2021 season after a train wreck 2020. Once looking like a future cornerstone, the shortstop appeared to have tumbled into questionable territory. We may have been too quick to judge.

In 2019, the Twins signed Jorge Polanco to a five-year $25.75 million deal with options for 2024 and 2025. Up to this point, Polanco was already well worth his team-friendly deal with his slash line of .275/.333/.434. Even coming back from an 80-game suspension for a banned substance, Polanco appeared to be a steady bat the Twins could rely on for the next five years.

In 2019, however, Polanco rewarded the Twins' show of faith with more than they ever could have expected. Polanco was the starting shortstop in the All-Star Game for the American League. Polanco was a dynamic player in the best lineup in the AL and finished the season with a 120 wRC+. TwinsDaily cited Polanco as the Twins most valuable asset following the season, and for good reason. While questions lingered regarding Polanco’s long-term defense, he looked to be an offensive force for years to come.

In retrospect, Polanco’s offseason ankle surgery probably shouldn’t have been taken so lightly. In a season where it became clear the Bomba Squad was a one-year deal, Polanco was simply putrid on offense. Slashing .258/.304/.354, Polanco was 20% below a league average hitter during the 2020 season. After being a lock near the top of the lineup, Polanco finished the season shoring up the bottom of the order.

It was plenty easy to call the 2020 season a one off, but Polanco followed it up by actually being worse to begin 2021. Through the end of April, Polanco was hitting just .209/.267/.286. He was still regularly showing off the half-swing that indicated his ongoing ankle issues.

Then came May.

Since the turn of the calendar, Polanco has been even better than the All-Star version of himself. His .270/.337/.487 line was 24% above league average. His wRC+ has shot up from 53 to 105. 

In addition to his offensive rebound, Polanco also appears to be acclimating to his new second base role well. He’s pegged for -1 Outs Above Average per Statcast and has been worth 1 Defensive Run Saved per Fangraphs. After a bit of an adjustment period, Polanco has really appeared to settle into what will probably be the position he fills for the entirety of his Twins career.

It would have been easy to say “It’s just 100 or so games” and call it a cold streak, but it was much more difficult to do so with Polanco’s years-long ankle injury. It was well in bounds to wonder at some point if Polanco was bound for a bench or platoon role which would have left the Twins looking for a future second baseman while already having to address so many issues after this season. That makes Polanco’s turnaround all the more incredible.

Polanco may not be the most valuable of the Twins' assets anymore with Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach looking like a formidable young duo. That being said, you can argue that Polanco has lifted himself back up to the top of the list of what many believed to be the Twins’ core headed into 2021. The Twins will need to address plenty this offseason from pitching to shortstop to center field depth. At second base, however, it appears the gamble they made two years ago on a steady hitter stretched at his shortstop position will continue paying off.

 

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[roger]

Thanks, Cody.  Have always thought that Polanco can and should be a part of future winning Twins teams.  Don't know how you pencil he and Arraez into the lineup as Luis also belongs on those teams.  Maybe Arraez stays as that super-sub who plays nearly every day with some days at DH once Cruz is no longer around.

[cHawk]

I think he should stay around in 2022. He seems to have found himself.

[Brock Beauchamp]

"His wRC+ has shot up from 53 to 105."

Holy crap. I knew he was bad but hadn't noticed he fell that low before rebounding this season.

[strumdatjag]

The trades at the trade deadline will determine much about the longterm role played by Luis Arraez.  For example, think about what happens if Josh Donaldson is traded (with Arraez and Jose Miranda as longterm options at 3B).  . Nevertheless, despite any future developments Polanco should stay here and remain longterm at 2B.   Shortstop is a position the Twins will need to address with another player, Royce Lewis or another free agent.  Frankly, I’d like to see Wander Javier succeed just so the organist can play the stupid “Happy Wanderer” song when he hits a home run or makes another great play -  the crowd then can belt out “Valderi, Valdera, valder- ra-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha …”.  

[old nurse]

Too quick to judge the headline proclaims. Never happens on Twins Daily 

[Doctor Gast]

As long as Polanco is kept at 2B he will continue to shine. If they become disillusioned and put him back at SS he'll continue to have ankle problems much like his extended time he had when Simmons was out this year.

[wsnydes]

I'm quite interested to see what happens with him at the deadline.  I could see someone putting up an offer that might be difficult to pass up.  Same with Arraez.  

Glad to see him getting back in the groove.

[bean5302]

Polanco looks to be putting together a solid 2.5-3.0 WAR campaign this year based on positional value and his bat. There are reasons to think Polanco's performance at the plate continue to climb a bit since his BABIP is still a bit too low at .267 compared to his career .307, but his HR rate is probably a bit inflated. Polanco doesn't walk a ton, but he also doesn't strike out a lot and he brings a little pop.

Defensive metrics can be pretty unreliable until you get a couple full seasons together and there are several different systems for measuring play. While Baseball Reference shows Polanco with a Total Zone per 1200 innings of +10 runs, UZR/150 shows Polanco at a -13.7 runs over 150 games. That's literally 2 WAR difference just in defensive metric projections across a full season. Regardless of the advanced metrics, one thing which is clear, the biggest contributor to Polanco's previous defensive shortcomings (error rate) is still an issue. That said, Polanco is playing as a 2B consistently for the first time in several years so there's still room for improvement.

While Polanco's contract is pretty minimal right now, it grades up to $10.5MM by year 2024 and I don't think he provides a big upside over Luis Arraez. Honestly, I think Arraez is good enough to start on a lot of MLB teams so keeping him as a utility guy feels wasteful. I think the Twins should seek to move Arraez or Polanco before next season and if I were choosing a player to move, it'd be Polanco for the savings.

[joefish]

Just don't move him back to SS. Upgrade there. If Simmons moves away